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The National Development and Reform Commission and other government bodies in China released plans this week to cap clinker production capacity at 1.8Bnt/yr by the end of 2025. Energy efficiency of existing capacity will be used as the driver to determine which production lines can remain open. 30% of capacity will be required to be above the benchmark energy efficiency level. Plants below this line will be obliged to upgrade or face elimination.

Points of interest from the longer release include detail on how the authorities intend to promote energy efficiency. Installing improved production line equipment is as might be expected. However, there is also a drive towards low-carbon fuel substitution such as an increased thermal substitution rate (TSR) through the use of alternative fuels (AF), promotion of renewable energy sources and, interestingly, no new cement plants will be able to add captive coal power plants. The government is targeting a TSR of 10% by the end of 2025 with 30% of lines using AF in some form or another. A plan to reduce the clinker factor in cement is also being pushed through for the increased use of blast furnace slag, fly ash, carbide slag, manganese slag and other supplementary cementitious materials. This last point might have big implications for the ferrous slag export market but that’s a story for another day.

Working out how much these new measures will affect the cement sector in China in the short term is not straightforward since it’s unclear what the country’s actual production capacity is and how much of it is actually active. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that cement output was 2.02Bnt in 2023. The China Cement Association (CCA) estimated that the capacity utilisation rate was 59% in 2023. So, if the sector were using all of its integrated cement plants flat out, then one might crudely suppose that the national production capacity might be around 3.5Bnt/yr. This guess does not take into account the prevalence of blended cements and a whole host of other factors so should be treated with caution. Given that cement output fell by 5% year-on-year in 2023, output could be just over 1.8Bnt in 2025 if the rate of decline holds. Research by Reuters in April 2024, suggested that the capacity utilisation rate hit 50% in that month, suggesting that the sector could meet the target in 2024 if it’s a particularly bad year. So, provided the production cap is enacted along the same lines of peak-shifting, where plants are temporarily shut for periods, then the target looks well within reach.

As reported in April 2024, the Chinese cement sector has faced rationalisation in recent years as the real estate market collapsed. Output peaked in 2020 and then fell subsequently. Most of the big producers endured falling sales volumes, revenue and profit in 2022, although some managed to resist the continuing decline in 2023. One coping mechanism has been to focus on overseas markets as proposed by the government’s Belt and Road initiative. Huaxin Cement has been a particular proponent of this strategy. The CCA says that China-based companies have invested in and built 43 clinker production lines in 21 countries with a cement production capacity of 81Mt/yr. Another 43Mt/yr of capacity is currently being built outside of China with yet another 25Mt/yr of capacity proposed for construction.

It is interesting, then, to note that the CCA issued an official warning this week to its members to invest ‘cautiously’ in Uzbekistan. The association said in a statement that at the end of April 2024 the country had 46 integrated production lines with a cement production capacity of 38Mt/yr. This is double the country’s demand for cement. Half of this production capacity is managed by China-based companies. It added that the utilisation rate was currently 50%, that the price had dropped by about 40% since 2020 and that competition was ‘fierce.’ Incredibly, another 7Mt/yr of capacity is expected to be added in 2024. The CCA has advised Chinese companies to consider the state of the Uzbek cement market before making any more investments.

The two news stories we have explored this week cover two sides of the same issue: Chinese cement overcapacity. The local market is finally slowing down after a period of phenomenal growth and the big question is what is the actual market demand now that all the big stuff has already been built. The government gives every impression it is using the decline to meet its sustainability goals. Like institutions in many other places it has set itself targets that it seems likely to meet. The flipside of overcapacity at home is investment overseas. China-based plant equipment manufacturers have certainly done well out of this situation. Yet in Uzbekistan, at least, it looks like the cement sector in China has also managed to export its overcapacity. This has created the absurd situation where the CCA has implored its members and others to exercise the same self-discipline abroad that the government extols at home. Another way to put this might be that Chinese cement companies are increasingly unable to make money at home… or in Uzbekistan. This then leaves a query over where else enthusiastic Chinese cement investors may be causing market imbalances. One solution might be for the Chinese government to impose a cap on clinker production by its companies outside the mainland. Whatever happens next though, the introduction of a capacity cap in mainland China marks a decisive change to the local cement sector.

Egypt: Titan Egypt has appointed Amr Reda as its CEO. Reda has worked for Lafarge and related companies since 2008 starting as the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) for Lafarge Pakistan Cement. He then became the Country CEO for Lafarge Pakistan in 2012 and the Country CEO for Lafarge Jordan in 2015. Prior to holding positions with Lafarge, Reda held senior finance positions for subsidiaries of Heineken and 3M in Egypt. He is a business graduate from the American University in Cairo and holds a master of business administration (MBA) from the same institution.

Colombia: Holcim Colombia has appointed Martín Costanian as its CEO. He succeeds Marco Maccarelli in the position, who has been appointed as the CEO for Holcim Switzerland, Italy, South Germany and Haut Rhin.

Costanian, a Uruguayan national, has worked for Holcim since 2019 when he joined the group as the Chief Financial Officer for Holcim México. He later joined the group’s Strategy and Growth Directorate in early 2024. Earlier in his career he held finance roles for Keurig Dr Pepper and 3M, and has held roles with Kraft Foods Group. Costanian is a science and business graduate from the Universidad Católica del Uruguay and holds a master of business administration (MBA) from the Carlson School of Management, part of University of Minnesota.

Ireland: Ecocem has appointed Ghizlane Ruf as its Chief of Staff. The role will see her work with the company’s senior executives to prioritise strategic business decisions and enhance team efficiency. She has been in post since the start of 2024.

Ruf previously worked for LafargeHolcim from 2016 to 2022 in a variety of customer service roles eventually becoming the Head of Customer Services for Cements and Aggregates and Standards France. She has also worked for Salesforce and Teksial.

South Africa: PPC has appointed Roann Heunis as its National Technical Manager. Prior to this he worked as a manager and a technical consultant for the building materials producer. Earlier in his career, Heunis was a Technical Sales Representative for Chryso Southern Africa. He holds a qualification in civil engineering from the Cape Peninsula University of Technology.

US: Command Alkon has appointed Ron Carlson as Senior Vice President, Industry Liaison. The role will involve enhancing customer engagement, providing strategic industry insights, and fostering long-term relationships with key accounts.

Carlson previously worked as the Executive Vice President of Operations at Superior Materials, a Votorantim Cimentos North America company based in Detroit, and Wingra Ready-Mix and Stone Company based in Madison, Wisconsin. Prior to this he spent a decade with Ozinga Ready-Mix in Chicago. Carlson currently sits on the National Ready Mixed Concrete Association’s Operations Environment and Safety Committee, and he has also served as an elected board member of the Wisconsin Ready Mixed Concrete Association.

US: Saxum has appointed Jared Weston as General Manager for North American Operations & VP of Strategic Planning. He previously worked as Director of Sales and VP of Strategic Planning for the engineering and project management company. Earlier in his career he spent over 15 years working for FLSmidth, starting as a commissioning engineer in 2006 and becoming head of Capital Sales from 2020 to 2023. Weston is a graduate in Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering from Penn State University.

Kenya: The government has decided to sell its entire 25% stake in East African Portland Cement Company, as part of a strategic reform of its investments, guided by the International Monetary Fund. The Star newspaper has reported that the government expects to earn US$134m from the sale. It reportedly sold 30% of shares in the producer for US$117m in 2023.

Of East African Portland Cement Company’s multiple minority shareholders, the largest is Lafarge South Africa, with 42% of shares, followed by the Kenyan National Social Security Fund, with 27%.

Canada: Hyperion Global Energy has fired up its pilot Tandem Carbon Recycling System at Lafarge Canada’s Bath cement plant in Ontario. The system mineralises captured CO₂ to produce mineral components for alternative building materials. It has a capture capacity of 1000t/yr. The partners will test the Tandem Carbon Recycling System in producing Lafarge Canada’s 30 – 90% reduced CO₂ ECOPact concrete.

Lafarge Canada’s Eastern Canada regional president and CEO of David Redfern said "Our collaboration with Hyperion marks an exciting milestone in our decarbonisation journey and the advancement of our circular construction technologies. We look forward to advancing our net zero strategy by leveraging carbon utilisation technology like Hyperion's, enabling us to further reduce CO₂ emissions from our operations while at the same time producing innovative and sustainable building solutions."

Hyperion CEO Heather Ward said "Working together with an innovative partner like Lafarge on this exciting pilot project allows us to apply our proprietary carbon recycling technology to large-scale industries, and make an immediate, measurable reduction on carbon emissions. At the same time, we are advancing our vision to offer a scalable and affordable decarbonisation solution for industry, and a market-driven profit incentive on the cost of carbon removal."

US: Representatives of the Portland Cement Association (PCA) and its members are meeting politicians at Congress to discuss cement sector decarbonisation on 12 and 13 June 2024. The PCA says that meetings will address permitting processes and new emission standards affecting the industry.

PCA president and CEO Mike Ireland said "There's a lot happening in Washington this year that directly impacts America's cement manufacturers, which is likely why we have a record turnout of cement company leadership in town for this fly-in. Our industry's top objective is to reach carbon neutrality. While our companies appreciate recent funding from the Department of Energy to assist in decarbonisation efforts, it's still challenging for them to make significant advancements due to a cumbersome permitting system and unrealistic Environmental Protection Agency regulations that could lead to eventual cuts in plant operations and staffing. As the infrastructure law is hitting its stride, the country needs more cement and concrete, not less. We're here to ask Congress to work with us to arrive at reasonable policies and standards that will allow manufacturers to continue to provide the resilient, sustainable building materials our country has come to expect."