Displaying items by tag: India Cements

India: The India Cements recorded a profit of US$2.27m in the three months to 30 June 2020, down by 77% year-on-year from US$9.66m in the corresponding quarter of 2019. Its sales fell by 48% to US$102m from US$197m, due to the effects of the coronavirus lockdown during the quarter. It noted that direct cement sales to consumers (non-trade sales) rose to 67% from 52%, and said that it would extend its successful “cash and carry” business model developed for non-trade sales during the partial coronavirus lockdown to all cement sales. The India Cements predicts a rise in cement demand in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana of 75% to 3.5Mt in the second half of 2020 from 2.0Mt in the first half.

India: The India Cements recorded a profit of US$4.70m in the fiscal year ending 31 March 2020, down by 49% year-on-year from US$9.18m in the 2019 fiscal year. Sales fell by 10% to US$669m from US$744m. The company attributed the fall in revenue partly to the suspension of operations in the fourth quarter following the beginning of the nationwide coronavirus lockdown in late March 2020.

India: Retail investor Radhakishan Damani has announced plans to acquire a majority stake in The India Cements. The deal is subject to the approval of competition authorities.

Under the current circumstances it’s not surprising to see how much Indian cement production fell in April 2020. Like many other countries, its lockdown measures to combat the coronavirus outbreak suppressed industrial output. Yet seeing an 86% year-on-year fall in the world’s second largest producer is shocking. Cement production declined to 4.1Mt from 29.2Mt. Further data shows, as part of the Indian government’s eight core industries, that steel and cement production suffered the most. Coal, crude oil, natural gas, petroleum refinery products, fertilisers and electricity generation all fell by far less.

Graph 1: Change in Indian cement production year-on-year (%). Source: Office of the Economic Adviser.

By comparison in China monthly cement output only fell around 30% at the peak of its outbreak. The difference is that China implemented a graduated lockdown nationally, with the toughest measures applied in Wuhan, the place the outbreak was first identified. As we reported in April 2020 demand for cement in Wuhan had fallen by around 80% at the time its lockdown ended. Production and demand are different, but India’s experience feels similar except that it’s on a national scale. The last time the country had a dip in cement production recently was in late 2016 when the government introduced its demonetisation measures and dented cement production growth rate (and national productivity) in the process.

UltraTech Cement, Orient Cement, Ambuja Cement, India Cement, Dalmia Bharat, JK Lakshmi Cement, Shree Cement and others all suspended operations to varying degrees in the first phase of the lockdown in late March 2020. Operations of industrial plants in rural areas was then cleared to restart in mid-April 2020, although subject to local permissions and social distancing rules, as the country’s lockdown zones took shape. All of this started to show in company results towards the end of March 2020 as sales started to be hit. The worst is yet to filter through to balance sheets.

March 2020 was a particularly bad time for the government to shut down cement plants because it is normally the month when annual construction work peaks. Cement production usually hits a high around the same time. The monsoon season then follows, reducing demand, giving producers a poor time to restart business. Credit ratings agency Care Ratings has forecast that capacity utilisation will drop to 45% in the 2020 – 2021 financial year. This follows a rate of 65 – 70% over the last six years with the exception of 2019- 2020, which was dragged down to 61% due to lockdown effects. On top of this labour issues are also expected to be a major issue to the sector returning to normality. The mass movement of workers back to their homes made world-wide news as India started its lockdown. Now they have to move back and Care Ratings thinks this is unlikely to complete until after the monsoon season, by September 2020. Hence, it doesn’t expect a partial recovery until the autumn, nor a full recovery until January 2021 at the earliest.

Not everybody is quite as gloomy though. HM Bangur, the managing director at Shree Cement recently told the Business Standard newspaper that he was expecting a rebound following the resumption of production in May 2020. He also reported a capacity utilisation rate of 60% at his company, higher than Care Rating’s prediction above, and he noted a difference between demand in rural areas and smaller cities (higher) compared to bigger cities (lower).

India is now pushing forward with plans to further unlock its containment measures to focus on the economy. However, daily reported news cases of coronavirus surpassed 8000 for the first time on Sunday 31 May 2020. How well its more relaxed lockdown rules will work won’t be seen for a few weeks. While this plays out we’ll end with quote from HM Bangur that will resonate with cement producers everywhere: “sales are imperative.”

India: Operations of industrial units in rural areas are clear to resume as of 20 April 2020, subject to local permissions and social distancing rules. Dion News Service has reported that JK Lakshmi Cement has resumed operations at two grinding units in Gujarat, JK Cement has resumed reduced operations at its 3.0Mt/yr integrated Muddapur plant in Karnataka and UltraTech has resumed operations ‘at some of the company’s locations.’ Ambuja Cements, ACC, ICC and India Cements all announced plans to return to full capacity utilisation in phases.

As part of phase two of India’s coronavirus lockdown, public spaces remain closed and public transport is suspended until 3 May 2020.

India: Several cement producers have responded to the coronavirus pandemic with plant closures. Reuters has reported that India Cements has temporarily closed all of its plants. JK Lakshmi Cement has suspended cement production at its 4.2Mt/yr integrated plant in Jaykaypuram, Rajasthan and at three grinding plants. JK Lakshmi subsidiary Udaipur Cement Works has shut its 1.6Mt/yr integrated Udaipur plant, also in Rajasthan.

Dalmia Bharat refractory production subsidiary Dalmia-OCL’s CEO Sameer Dagpaal told the Business Standard newspaper that he expected the virus’ impact on the company to be ‘relatively limited,’ with a slowdown in demand from the cement sector lasting at most ‘a couple of months.’ He noted that there had been ‘some minor supply-side disruptions relating to a shortage of raw materials from China.’

On 24 March 2020 the all-India total number of coronavirus cases crossed 500, with nine dead, according to Al Jazeera. 200 cases are in the western states of Maharashtra and Kerala.

India: Representatives from Aditya Birla subsidiary UltraTech, Ramco Cements, India Cements, JSW Cement and KCP have met with Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jaganmohan Reddy and other state officials to negotiate the sale of their products to construction companies working on public projects ‘at lower prices.’ The Hindu newspaper has reported that the state forecasts a year-on-year rise in its annual cement consumption of 67%, to 30Mt in 2020 from 18Mt in 2019. India Cements’ vice chair and managing director Narendra Srinavasan said that all planned infrastructure projects ‘ought to be implemented in order to bail out the industry from the turmoil it has been undergoing.’

The National Council for Cement and Building Materials (NCB) International Seminar is running this week in New Delhi and this gives us a good opportunity to take a snapshot at the world’s second largest cement industry.

Data from the Ministry of Commerce & Industry shows comfortable cement production growth of 4.4% year-on-year to 255Mt in the first nine months of 2019. As graph 1 shows there was higher production growth in 2018 but this followed a decline in 2017, due to partly to the government’s demonetisation policy. October 2019 confirms a trend of falling year-on-year growth from August 2019 onwards following a peak growth rate in mid-2017.

Graph 1: Indian cement production in the first nine months of the year, 2015 – 2019. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Graph 2: Year-on-year change in monthly Indian cement production, 2017 – October 2019. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Analysts like ICRA have blamed the growth slowdown on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. By region in the six months from April to September 2019 it noted a slowdown in demand due to slowing government projects in northern, eastern and central areas. Labour concerns were reported in the north, centre and Gujarat in the west. Raw material shortages were picked up on such as water in Maharashtra and sand in the east and Andhra Pradesh. Positive growth was reported in Kerala, driven by post-flood reconstruction and low-cost housing schemes, and in Karnataka due to general construction activity. Broadly, UltraTech Cement, the country’s largest cement producer, in its November 2019 investor’s presentation, agreed with this assessment. It noted growth in the northern region and declines elsewhere. Like ICRA it too picked up on low cost housing declaring it to be a ‘key cement consumption driver.’

Away from the figures the main news stories have been continued consolidation such as the auction for Emami Cement and UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Century Textiles and Industries. The sale of the former for plants in east and central regions has been linked to all the major local producers, including those owned by LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement. A report in the Hindu newspaper last week quoted a source placing UltraTech Cement and Nirma Group as the frontrunners with a valuation of around US$700m and an announcement at some point in December 2019. Despite UltraTech Cement’s market dominance nationally, its 17% production share in the east is low compared to its presence elsewhere. Nirma Group’s subsidiary Nuvoco Vistas is one of the smaller producers but, notably, it picked up Lafarge India’s assets in 2016.

Investment in new production capacity has continued with announcements from both JSW Cement and HeidelbergCement in recent weeks about expansion plans well into the mid-2020s. This follows planned projects from Dalmia Bharat Cement and Ramco Cement as well as orders from the JK Cement and Shree Cement. This ties into the capacity growth forecasts of around 120Mt over a similar timescale that the analysts were predicting in the middle of 2019. JM Financial, for example, pinned most of this growth on the south followed by the east and north. However, The India Cements said in November 2019 that it was delaying its expansion projects in Uttar Pradesh due to slowing government spending.

As is usual for a country with a low per capita cement consumption, on the national scale, one of the tensions in the Indian cement industry has been the balance between the capacity utilisation rate and the commissioning of new capacity. Its utilisation rate was below 60% in 2018 and a number of producers started reporting the negative effects of higher input and raw materials costs on their financial results. Knowing when to stop and start capacity growth is critical in this kind of environment. Specifically in India’s case curveballs such as government action on pollution and the country’s growing need for imports of coal as well as a burgeoning waste fuels sector are factors to keep an eye on. Finally, general trends such as UltraTech Cement’s focus on the Indian market, despite buying assets outside the country, are also compelling to watch as it chooses to concentrate on just one country. There are parallels here with other similarly-sized multinational that have also been focusing on core markets elsewhere in the globe.

India: The India Cements, south India's largest cement maker by volume, has stated that it may have to delay its planned capital expenditure projects, if the Indian economy continues its relative ‘slump.’ The company’s proposed projects include an investment of US$195m on a greenfield plant in Madhya Pradesh and a grinding plant in Uttar Pradesh.

India is going through what many consider to be a ‘unprecedented’ economic slowdown following GDP growth of ‘a mere 5% in the third quarter of 2019, a six year low. This has led to a slowdown in government spending, directly affecting cement consumption and capacity utilisation rate at The India Cements’ plants.

“We may hold back capital expenditure," said N Srinivasan, the company’s Vice Chairman and Managing Director. “I want to expand. I want to go there, but I want to be sure before I go!"

India: India Cements is planning to spend up to US$200m on a new integrated plant in Madhya Pradesh and a grinding unit near Allahabad in Uttar Pradesh. The move will increase its production capacity to 20Mt/yr by 2023 from 16Mt/yr at present, according to the Hindu newspaper. N Srinivasan, Vice-Chairman and managing director of India Cements said that the company was in the process of buying land in Madhya Pradesh and that it hoped to complete this by late 2019. The company holds mining lease for more than 100Mt of limestone following its acquisition of Springway Mining in Madhya Pradesh in 2018.