Displaying items by tag: Morocco

It’s the end of the year so it’s time to look at trends in the sector news over the last 12 months. It’s also the end of a decade, so for a wider perspective check out the feature in the December 2019 issue of Global Cement Magazine. The map of shifting production capacity and the table of falling CO₂ emissions per tonne are awesome and inspiring in their own way. They also point towards the successes and dangers facing the industry in the next decade.

Back on 2019 here are some of the main themes of the year in the industry news. This is a selective list but if we missed anything crucial let us know.

European multinationals retreat

LafargeHolcim left the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, HeidelbergCement sold up in Ukraine and reduced its stake in Morocco and CRH is reportedly making plans to leave the Philippines and India, if local media speculation can be believed. To be fair to HeidelbergCement it has also instigated some key acquisitions here and there, but there definitely has been a feel of the multinationals cutting their losses in certain places and retreating that bit closer to their heartlands.

CRH’s chief executive officer Albert Manifold summed it up an earnings meeting when he said, “…you're faced with a capital allocation decision of investing in Europe or North America where you've got stability, certainty, overlap, capability, versus going for something a bit more exotic. The returns you need to generate to justify that higher level of risk are extraordinary and we just don't see it.”

The battle for the European Green Deal

One battle that’s happening right now is the lobbying behind the scenes for so-called energy-intensive industries in Europe as part of the forthcoming European Green Deal. The cement industry is very aware that it is walking a tightrope on this one. The European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) CO₂ price started to bite in 2019, hitting a high of Euro28/t in August 2019 and plant closures have been blamed on it. The rhetoric from Ursula von der Leyen, the new president of the European Commission, has been bullish on climate legislation and the agitation of Greta Thunberg internationally and groups like Extinction Rebellion has kept the issue in the press. Cembureau, the European Cement Association, is keen to promote the industry’s sustainability credentials but it is concerned that aspects of the proposed deal will create ‘uncertainty and risks.’ Get it wrong and problems like the incoming ban on refuse-derived fuel (RDF) imports into the Netherlands may proliferate. What the Green Deal ends up as could influence the European cement industry for decades.

The managed march of China

Last’s week article on a price spike in Henan province illustrated the tension in China between markets and government intervention. It looks like this was driven by an increase in infrastructure spending with cement sales starting to rise. Cement production growth has also picked up in most provinces in the first three quarters of 2019. This follows a slow fall in cement sales over the last five years as state measures such as consolidation and peak shifting have been implemented. The government dominates the Chinese market and this extends west, as waste importers have previously found out to their cost.

Meanwhile, the Chinese industry has continued to grow internationally. Rather than buying existing assets it has tended to build its own plants, often in joint ventures with junior local partners. LafargeHolcim may have left Indonesia in 2018 but perhaps the real story was Anhui Conch's becoming the country's third biggest producer by local capacity. Coupled with the Chinese dominance in the supplier market this has meant that most new plant projects around the world are either being built by a Chinese company or supplied by one.

India consolidates but watches dust levels

Consolidation has been the continued theme in the world's second largest cement industry, with the auction for Emami Cement and UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Century Textiles and Industries. Notably, UltraTech Cement has decided to focus its attention on only India despite the overseas assets it acquired previously. Growth in cement sales in the second half of 2019 has slowed and capacity utilisation rates remain low. Indian press reports that CRH is considering selling up. Together with the country's low per capita cement consumption this suggests a continued trend for consolidation for the time being.

Environmental regulations may also play a part in rationalising the local industry, as has already happened in China. The Indian government considered banning petcoke imports in 2018 in an attempt to decrease air pollution. Later, in mid-2019, a pilot emissions trading scheme (ETS) for particulate matter (PM) was launched in Surat, Gujarat. At the same time the state pollution boards have been getting tough with producers for breaching their limits.

Steady growth in the US

The US market has been a dependable one over the last year, generally propping up the balance sheets of the multinational producers. Cement shipments grew in the first eight months of the year with increases reported in the North-Eastern and Southern regions. Imports also mounted as the US-China trade war benefitted Turkey and Mexico at the expense of China. Alongside this a modest trade in cement plants has been going on with upgrades also underway. Ed Sullivan at the Portland Cement Association forecasts slowing growth in the early 2020s but he doesn’t think a recession is coming anytime soon.

Mixed picture in Latin America

There have been winners and losers south of the Rio Grande in 2019. Mexico was struggling with lower government infrastructure spending hitting cement sales volumes in the first half of the year although US threats to block exports haven’t come to pass so far. Far to the south Argentina’s economy has been holding the cement industry back leading to a 7% fall in cement sales in the first 11 months of the year. Both of these countries’ travails pale in comparison to Venezuela’s estimated capacity utilisation of just 12.5%. There have been bright spots in the region though with Brazil’s gradual return to growth in 2019. The November 2019 figures suggest sales growth of just under 4% for the year. Peru, meanwhile, continues to shine with continued production and sales growth.

North and south divide in Africa and the Middle East

The divide between the Middle East and North African (MENA) and Sub-Saharan regions has grown starker as more MENA countries have become cement exporters, particularly in North Africa. The economy in Turkey has held back the industry there and the sector has pivoted to exports, Egypt remains beset by overcapacity and Saudi Arabian producers have continued to renew their clinker export licences.

South of the Sahara key countries, including Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, have suffered from poor sales due to a variety of reasons, including competition and the local economies. Other countries with smaller cement industries have continued to propose and build new plants as the race to reduce the price of cement in the interior drives change.

Changes in shipping regulations

One of the warning signs that flashed up at the CemProspects conference this year was the uncertainty surrounding the new International Maritime Organistaion (IMO) 2020 environmental regulations for shipping. A meeting of commodity traders for fuels for the cement industry would be expected to be wary of this kind of thing. Their job is to minimise the risk of fluctuating fuel prices for their employers after all. Yet, given that the global cement industry produces too much cement, this has implications for the clinker and cement traders too. This could potentially affect the price of fuels, input materials and clinker if shipping patterns change. Ultimately, IMO 2020 comes down to enforcement but already ship operators have to decide whether and when to act.

Do androids dream of working in cement plants?

There’s a been a steady drip of digitisation stories in the sector news this year, from LafargeHolcim’s Industry 4.0 plan to Cemex’s various initiatives and more. At present the question appears to be: how far can Industry 4.0 / internet of things style developments go in a heavy industrial setting like cement? Will it just manage discrete parts of the process such as logistics and mills or could it end up controlling larger parts of the process? Work by companies like Petuum show that autonomous plant operation is happening but it’s still very uncertain whether the machines will replace us all in the 2020s.

On that cheery note - enjoy the winter break if you have one.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 8 January 2020

Morocco: HeidelbergCement has sold 3.6% of its 54.6% stake in Ciments du Maroc’s share capital. HeidelbergCement chairman Bernd Scheifele expressed the company’s commitment to retaining its majority stake in the total 5.6Mt/yr-capacity cement producer. Scheifele explained that the decision was ‘aimed at generating cash to speed up deleveraging,’ and that it was ‘well on track’ to reach its Euro1.5bn disposal target by the end of 2020.

Morocco: Cement deliveries by members of the l'Association Professionnelle des Cimentiers (APC) grew by 2% year-on-year to 10Mt in the first nine months of 2019 from 9.8Mt in the same period in 2018. The growth was driven by building construction, according to Médias 24. However, cement used by the infrastructure segment fell by 15% in the reporting period.

Morocco: LafargeHolcim Morocco’s net profit in the first half of 2019 was Euro90.6m, representing an increase of 8.6% year-on-year from Euro83.5m in the six months to 30 June 2018. Its revenue held steady year-on-year with a 0.2% increase to Euro366m from Euro365m. It continues its ambitious renewables plan with an 80% increase in its use of wind power.

HeidelbergCement’s Moroccan subsidiary Ciments du Maroc improved its net profit restated for exceptional items by 3.4% year-on-year to Euro55.3m from Euro53.6m in the first half of 2018. Its 2019 first-half revenue improved by 5.0% to Euro191m from Euro183m in the same period of 2018, which it said was due to a record year-on-year increase in clinker sales of 55% due to increased exports and operational improvements.

Morocco: Morocco’s second largest cement plant in Safi, HeidelbergCement’s largest in the country, is to receive an adjacent algae pond. Environmental innovator Omega Green has estimated the pond’s rate of carbon dioxide removal at 80-100t/yr. The algae can be sold on to food, cosmetics, and animal feed producers.

The agreement this week by Ciments du Maroc to buy two production projects from Anouar Invest Group marks a consolidation phase in the local market. The subsidiary of Germany’s HeidelbergCement has struck a deal to acquire Atlantic Cement’s 2.2Mt/yr integrated plant project in Settat province and the Les Cimenteries Marocaines du Sud (CIMSUD) 0.5Mt/yr grinding plant at Laâyoune, which was only recently commissioned.

Graph 1: Cement sales and production capacity in Morocco, 2013 - 2018. Source: L’Association Professionnelle des Cimentiers (APC) & Global Cement Directory 2019.

Graph 1 gives an impression of the market conditions the cement producers have faced over the past five years. Cement sales hit of a high of 16.1Mt in 2011 following increasing growth in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. Cement sales have since wilted, while production capacity has increased pushing down the capacity utilisation rate. The capacity utilisation dropped below 55% in 2018, using Global Cement Directory 2019 data, although other sources have placed it at around 60%.

Local production is dominated by two multinational producers, LafargeHolcim (LafargeHolcim Maroc) and HeidelbergCement (Ciments du Maroc), and a local company, Ciments de l’Atlas (CIMAT). CIMAT is owned by Addoha Group and it also operates Ciments de l'Afrique (CIMAF) with plants across West Africa. A fourth player, Asment de Témara, run by Votorantim, also operates an integrated plant.

LafargeHolcim Maroc’s turnover fell by 2% year-on-year to US$837m in 2018 along with a drop in consolidated net income of 18% to US$201m. It attributed this to lower sales and growing petcoke costs. Ciments du Maroc’s turnover fell slightly to US$419m but its net profit rose by 3% to US$108m. This followed a generally positive year in 2017 due to a strong second half of the year. It blamed the instability on a poor real estate market. CIMAT managed to raise its sales in 2018 by 6% to US$300m and its income by 1.4% to US$90.7m.

Anouar Invest Group’s decision to sell up may mean that its attempt to break into the cement market has failed. Who can blame it given the market conditions. Although, who knows, HeidelbergCement may have made it a great offer. HeidelbergCement’s gambit is also interesting because, in February 2019, it reduced its stake in Ciments du Maroc by 7.8% to 54.6% signalling less confidence in the country.

Yet, cement sales started to improve in the first quarter of 2019 with consecutive month-on-month improvements. Neither is Anouar Invest Group the last company to try its luck with cement production in Morocco. In June 2019 FLSmdith announced that TEKCIM had ordered a US$45m cement plant from it and Société Générale des Travaux du Maroc. The grinding unit has a production capacity of 1.2Mt/yr. Clearly, despite a market with production overcapacity, companies are sensing opportunities with the cement grinding model.

Morocco: Ciments du Maroc has signed a deal to buy Atlantic Cement and Cimsud from Anouar Invest Group. Atlantic Cement is building an integrated plant in Settat province and Cimsud has recently commissioned a 0.5Mt/yr grinding plant at Laâyoune. Ciments du Maroc said that the agreement would strengthen its market presence in the central region. The acquisition is planning to complete in the second half of 2019 subject to regulatory approval. No value for the purchase has been disclosed.

Ciments du Maroc, subsidiary of HeidelbergCement, operates three integrated cement plants and two grinding plants. It also runs 30 ready-mixed conrete plants and four quarries.

Cameroon: Ciments de l'Afrique (CIMAF) has agreed with the Cameroon Investment Promotion Agency (CIPA) to invest US$33m in its integrated plant at Douala. The subsidiary of Morocco’s Addoha Group plans to triple the plant’s production capacity to 1.5Mt/yr, according to Business in Cameroon magazine. The unit was originally commissioned in 2014.

Morocco: Denmark’s FLSmidth has won a contract to deliver a greenfield cement plant to a new customer in Morocco. The contract is worth US$45m.

The contract was signed by FLSmidth, together with Société Générale des Travaux du Maroc (SGTM) on 19 July 2019 signed a contract with TEKCIM S.A. to co-deliver a 3600t/day (1.2Mt/yr) cement plant. The plant will be built in Ouled Ghanem in Morocco’s El-Jadida Province and is scheduled to be fully operational during the third quarter of 2022.

This is the first business cooperation between FLSmidth and TEKCIM. The process leading to the agreement has involved the African Development Bank as well as local commercial banks, and the parties involved have set very high standards in terms of quality and sustainability.

“The project includes state-of-the-art equipment that will provide TEKCIM with a very efficient cement plant,” said Jan Kjaersgaard, FLSmidth’s President of Cement. It also demonstrates FLSmidth’s ability to support customers where financing is involved, which has been a key aspect to be awarded this project. The plant will fulfil strict international standards, which is a clear statement that we as a premium player in the industry are following suit on our agenda of delivering sustainable productivity.”

The contract scope includes engineering, supply of a full range of equipment from crushing to packing and load-out, supervision, commissioning and training of a local workforce. The order is effective immediately and has been recognised in the order intake for the second quarter of 2019.

Morocco: Cement sales in Morocco during the first four months of 2019 have reached 4.8Mt, an increase of nearly 6% compared to the same period of 2018. April 2019 was the fourth straight month of improved sales. The increase reverses the trend seen in the previous two sets of four-month statistics, which saw falling volumes year-on-year in both 2017 (5.3% decrease) and 2018 (5.5% decrease).