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Displaying items by tag: Nigeria
The creation of Lafarge Africa, the clearance of the Cemex West acquisition by Holcim in Germany and the sale of Lafarge's assets in Ecuador all hint at the scale of business that LafargeHolcim will command when it comes into existence. Despite the media saturation of coverage on the merger the implications in developing markets are still worthwhile exploring, especially in Latin American and Africa.
In sub-Saharan Africa, Lafarge is merging its cement companies in Nigeria and South Africa to create Lafarge Africa. Analysts Exotix have described the move as, 'the birth of a leading player on a continental scale'. Indeed, if Lafarge wanted to grow Lafarge Africa to encompass its many other African cement producing subsidiaries it could hold at least 17 integrated cement plants (including plants in north Africa) with a cement production capacity of at least 40Mt/yr in 10 countries and infrastructure in others. That puts it head-to-head with Dangote's plans to meet 40Mt/yr by the end of 2014 through its many expansion projects. Following these two market leaders would come South African-based cement producer PPC with its expansion plans around the continent.
Meanwhile across the Atlantic in Latin America the Lafarge-Holcim merger threatens Cemex. Unlike in Africa where Lafarge has a ubiquitous but disparate presence, Lafarge and Holcim's cement assets are more evenly scattered around the Caribbean, Central and South America. In terms of cement production capacity Cemex and Lafarge-Holcim will both have around 30Mt/yr, with Cemex just in front. The next biggest cement producers in Latin America will be Votorantim (present mainly in Brazil) with just over 20Mt/yr and Cementos Argos (Columbia) with about the same. This includes some new acquisitions in the United States for the growing Columbian producer. In Ecuador Lafarge and Holcim held over 50% of the market share, hence the sale by Lafarge of its assets to Union Andina de Cementos for US$553m.
Depending on how well the merger integrates the two companies, corals the various subsidiaries and implements strategic thinking the merger could just create business as usual with little disruption to the existing order. Yet in both continents the merger has the opportunity to shake up and reinvigorate the cement markets as existing players suddenly discover serious new competition and react accordingly.
Africa has a population of 1.1bn and it had a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$2320/capita in 2013. South America had a population of 359m in 2010 and a GDP of US$8929/capita. This compares to US$27,250/capita in Europe and US$54,152/capita in the US. The economic development potential for each continent is humongous. Post-merger, LafargeHolcim will be first or second in line for some of this potential in Latin America and Africa.
Nigeria: The management of Lafarge Nigeria has urged stakeholders in the cement sector to cooperate on the need for proper product labelling by manufacturers.
The company's general manager (Industrial Performance), Lanre Opakunle, said that the step was necessary to address the issue of incorrect cement application in the Nigeria. Opakunle said that there is a need to review how cement products are labelled in order to educate end users on the basic steps necessary for the correct application and results.
"We discovered that labelling is not adequate and we made some proposals," said Opakunle. "However, those proposals have not been taken on board. We will keep making efforts to see that they are." Opakunle added that correct labelling would help to ensure that people have the right information at their disposal.
"Lafarge is the only cement manufacturer in the market that puts the uses and specifications of cement on their bags," said Opakunle. "In our technical submission to SON we said that we want to do more than that; we want to put it in a way that the layman can understand." He noted that issues of cement application should not dwell on the cement grades; rather it should be about knowing the right mix.
"The most widely used individual application of cement in the world is 32.5 grade," said Opakunle. "It is important that the user understands how to use whatever grade of cement that is available on the shelf because of certain risks which may maybe associated with these grades, whether it is 32.5 or 42.5 grade. The information should be properly labelled on the bags."
Nigeria: Lafarge Cement WAPCO, Ashaka Cement and Unicem have established suits against the Standards Organisation of Nigeria (SON) over its recent decision to employ a new Mandatory Industrial Standard Order for the field of cement manufacturing, distribution and effective usage in Nigeria.
The cement producers are also seeking an order of the court restraining SON, their privies, agents and whosoever is involved in purporting to act through the respondent from implementing the Mandatory Industrial Standard NIS 444-1 2014.
Nigeria/South Africa: French cement maker Lafarge intends to combine its businesses in Nigeria and South Africa. The new company Lafarge Africa, which will be 73% owned by Lafarge Group, will remain listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The new company will have a cement production capacity of about 12Mt/yr in South Africa and Nigeria as well as operations in aggregates, ready-mix and fly ash. The new company will be worth more than US$3bn.
"I am proud to be part of the creation of this leading African building materials platform. It will provide access to growth in two of the largest economies on the continent. It will mean that our shareholders are invested in a larger and more geographically diverse business and it will contribute significantly to the economic growth of both our nations, " said Chairman of Lafarge WAPCO, Chief Olusegun Osunkeye.
Under the proposed terms, Lafarge Group will transfer its direct and indirect shareholdings in Lafarge South Africa Holdings (Pty) Limited (100% - representing 72.4% of underlying companies in South Africa), United Cement Company of Nigeria Limited (35%), Ashakacem plc (58.61%) and Atlas Cement Company Limited (100%) to Lafarge WAPCO. The transaction is subject to Lafarge WAPCO shareholder approvals and obtaining required regulatory and other customary authorisations. The group anticipates completion during the second half of 2014.
Nigeria: Lafarge Cement WAPCO, Ashaka Cement and Unicem have started court action against the Standards Organisation of Nigeria (SON) regarding its plan to limit the application of 32.5 grade cement. The action follows a publication by SON restricting the application of 32.5R grade cement to plastering use only.
"We have instituted a suit against the SON over its recent pronouncement and plan to implement a new mandatory industrial standard order for cement manufacturing, distribution and usage in the country," said the three cement producers at a briefing in Lagos. The producers added that 32.5 grade cement is a widely used multi-purpose product and has 'never' been associated with building collapses.
Nigerian cement industry upheaval
21 May 2014Following the Standards Industry of Nigeria's (SON) decision earlier this week to ban 32.5 grade cement for all applications except for plastering, the country's cement industry is likely to be faced with some difficult decisions. The new rules state that 42.5 grade cement must be used for casting of columns, beams, slabs and for moulding blocks, while 52.5 grade cement is now mandatory for building bridges. As a developing country, Nigeria is home to a large number of construction and infrastructure projects. To ensure safety this means that the construction industry must be well-regulated.
Arguments against the use of low quality cement in Nigeria have been long drawn out as low quality cement has been blamed for a spate of building collapses, resulting in the deaths of 297 people in 1974 – 2010.
In support of the country's cement producers, SON's director general Joseph Ikem Odumodu was eager to point out that low quality cement is not to blame for Nigeria's building collapses. He said that cement grades 32.5, 42.5 and 52.5 are designed for different applications, which are not being adhered to by builders. While 42.5 grade cement is the minimum suitable grade for multi-story building construction like residential homes, 32.5 grade cement is frequently used instead as it is cheaper and more readily available.
Dangote Cement is currently the only company producing 52.5 grade cement in the country, which it sells at the same price as its 42.5 grade cement. The new SON decision is therefore expected to be good news for Dangote, potentially increasing sales volumes and improving the company's reputation.
With regards to the rest of Nigeria's cement producers, unless they are able to convert their production process for 42.5 and 52.5 grade cement extremely rapidly, Nigeria's cement imports and prices for domestic 42.5 and 52.5 grade cements are likely to increase, in contrast to recent trends. The new regulations, which SON has said will be strictly enforced, provide an excellent opportunity for market share expansion to those cement producers that respond rapidly. It might also be considered the ideal moment for companies to begin exploring brand identities and marketing campaigns. Lookout for our new report on cement branding in a future issue of Global Cement Magazine.
SON justifies 32.5 grade cement ban decision
20 May 2014Nigeria: The Standard Organisation of Nigeria (SON) has explained why the agency has restricted the use of 32.5 grade cement and why it has urged manufacturers to commence the production of 42.5 grade cement.
The director general of SON, Joseph Ikem Odumodu, said that the restriction placed on the use of low grade cement was important to mitigate the problem of building collapses in the country. It is estimated that from 1974 to 2010, collapsed buildings have claimed about 297 lives.
Odumodu said that Nigeria cannot afford to be a 'pariah state' on the issue of cement quality, adding that world's progressive countries have stopped using 32.5 grade cement. He said that SON has restricted the use of 32.5 grade cement and will enforce compliance.
Dangote Cement is the only company that currently produces 42.5 grade cement in Nigeria. Odumodu said that companies that have decided to continue 32.5 grade cement production have done so for profiteering.
SON had issued a directive that 52.5 grade cement must be used for bridges, 42.5 grade cement can be used for casting of columns, beams, slabs and for moulding blocks, while 32.5 grade cement can only be used for plastering.
Nigeria approves new cement standard
14 May 2014Nigeria: Final approval for a new national cement standard has been given by Olusegun Aganga at the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment. Following a short grace period all cement manufactured locally or imported must meet the approved standards and will be tagged 'NlS 444-1'. The implementation of a new standard for cement follows a battle between cement industry stakeholders regarding whether poor quality cement had been to blame for building collapses.
The highest grade - CEM I 52.5R, 52.5N, or 52.5 - will now be used for the construction of bridges. The second highest grade - CEM II 42.5R, 42.5N or 42.5 grade – will be used for the casting of columns, beams, slabs and for block moulding. The lowest cement grade - CEM I & II 32.5R, 32.5N or 32.5 cement grade – will be used only for the plastering of buildings.
According to the ministry, the new guidelines would, "Enable the end users make the right choice; help to avoid unethical application of the different types of cement; enhance proper identification of the different cement classes and enhance traceability as well as guide users." The ministry added that the standards were reviewed because they had attained the five-year mandatory period for review, as well as concerns over the quality of cement in the Nigerian markets.
Nigeria: Dangote Cement has reported that its first quarter pre-tax profits fell by 1.25% year-on-year to US$331.7m. Gross earnings rose to US$652.5m compared with US$599.9m in the same period of 2013.
Dangote's chairman, Aliko Dangote, disclosed that its expansion drive would increase capacity and add an additional 9Mt/yr of production capacity by July 2014, expressing satisfaction that cement imports into Nigeria had continued to fall. An estimated 1.1Mt of cement was imported in 2013, down from 1.9Mt in 2012.
Dangote vowed that the company would stop at nothing to expand, as most of Nigeria's neighbours are currently importing cement from the Far East. "We are confident that Nigeria's cement will prove more attractive than the imports, particularly within the 15 member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," he added.
To stabilise the price of cement and free the consumers from 'profiteering middlemen,' Dangote said that his company would intensify its direct-to-consumer deliveries.
Lafarge-Holcim merger - any impact on Africa?
30 April 2014Holcim released its first quarter results for 2014 this week and benefits of a merger seemed clear: both sales and profit were down. Net sales fell by 5.4% to Euro3.35bn and net income fell by 57.5% to Euro65.6m. However, Chief Financial Officer Thomas Aebischer was upbeat on meeting the regulatory requirements of any merger and the prospect of divestment opportunities.
This week we have a guest contributor - Andy Gboka, an analyst at Exotix LLP, a London-based broker specialised in Frontier markets – writing about the impact in Africa from the Lafarge-Holcim merger:
No change in Sub-Saharan Africa cement markets
Looking at (1) the location and size of the assets that both groups operate across the region but also (2) the expansion projects recently announced, we do not anticipate any upheaval in the competitive landscape, at least in the medium term.
Potential reshuffle of African assets
We identify Nigeria and Morocco as the main countries where the two companies are likely to reorganise their operations post-deal.
After the market excitement Lafarge / Holcim's price gains have averaged 9% since the announcement versus +8% the same day (04/04/14). We think it timely to discuss, from a competition angle, the likely impact on sector dynamics in Africa.
Starting with Sub-Saharan Africa where Lafarge and Holcim have been present for decades, the two groups have grown their output capability over time to reach a combined ~20.7Mt/yr. Holcim is a much smaller cement producer through its ~2.6Mt/yr in Ivory Coast, Guinea and Nigeria, whereas the French manufacturer is a regional leader with ~18.1Mt/yr capacity across 10 different countries. North African exposure paints a similar picture, as the Swiss company's installed capacity is ~9.6Mt/yr versus ~21.6Mt/yr for Lafarge (including their respective shareholdings in Lafarge Cement Egypt).
Although we do not believe the proposed merger will significantly alter Africa's competitive environment, business reorganisation is likely in:
(1) Nigeria. LafargeHolcim would control more than ~70% of the United Cement Company of Nigeria Ltd (UNICEM, 2.5Mt/yr in Calabar) which, in our view, is a suitable context for minorities' buyout.
(2) Morocco. More than ~50% of the industry's production capacity is controlled by the two players, a situation that may lead to asset disposals after review by the local competition commission.
Beyond the corporate implications, this announcement also puts into perspective the multiples investors are willing to pay for companies operating in Africa. Indeed, for 2014/2015 financial year the enterprise multiple (enterprise value / earnings before depreciation and amortisation) and price-to-book ratio for the main stocks listed in Nigeria and Kenya average 10.3x and 2.9x respectively, vs. 8.4x and 1.3x for LafargeHolcim (Bloomberg). While demand growth prospects in the teen digits or margins above ~25% (especially in Nigeria) would support a premium for the former names, we think the extent of that premium is questionable.
The best illustration is Dangote Cement, whose market capitalisation stands at ~US$25bn for total capacity estimated at 50 – 55Mt/yr by the 2016 financial year, relatively high when compared to the expected ~US$55bn market capitalisation for LafargeHolcim with (1) 427Mt/yr cement capacity globally and (2) ~60% of its revenue from emerging markets. This underpins our cautious stance on the sector.
Source: Andy Gboka, analyst at Exotix LLP (London-Based broker specialised in Frontier markets).
Andy Gboka will be speaking at the forthcoming Global CemTrader Conference, taking place in London on 2 -3 June 2014.