Displaying items by tag: Overcapacity

Nepal: Exports of cement to India via the Kakarvitta road border crossing in Jhapa totalled 50,000t in the 2024 financial year, which ended on 15 July 2024. KhabarHub News has reported that shipments had a combined value of US$3.81m. The Kakarvitta crossing had not previously served to convey major despatches of cement between the two countries. The cement industry in Jhapa is 50% dependent on export markets for its demand. Eight plants operate in the district, of which three currently sit idle due to 40% local oversupply.

The National Development and Reform Commission and other government bodies in China released plans this week to cap clinker production capacity at 1.8Bnt/yr by the end of 2025. Energy efficiency of existing capacity will be used as the driver to determine which production lines can remain open. 30% of capacity will be required to be above the benchmark energy efficiency level. Plants below this line will be obliged to upgrade or face elimination.

Points of interest from the longer release include detail on how the authorities intend to promote energy efficiency. Installing improved production line equipment is as might be expected. However, there is also a drive towards low-carbon fuel substitution such as an increased thermal substitution rate (TSR) through the use of alternative fuels (AF), promotion of renewable energy sources and, interestingly, no new cement plants will be able to add captive coal power plants. The government is targeting a TSR of 10% by the end of 2025 with 30% of lines using AF in some form or another. A plan to reduce the clinker factor in cement is also being pushed through for the increased use of blast furnace slag, fly ash, carbide slag, manganese slag and other supplementary cementitious materials. This last point might have big implications for the ferrous slag export market but that’s a story for another day.

Working out how much these new measures will affect the cement sector in China in the short term is not straightforward since it’s unclear what the country’s actual production capacity is and how much of it is actually active. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that cement output was 2.02Bnt in 2023. The China Cement Association (CCA) estimated that the capacity utilisation rate was 59% in 2023. So, if the sector were using all of its integrated cement plants flat out, then one might crudely suppose that the national production capacity might be around 3.5Bnt/yr. This guess does not take into account the prevalence of blended cements and a whole host of other factors so should be treated with caution. Given that cement output fell by 5% year-on-year in 2023, output could be just over 1.8Bnt in 2025 if the rate of decline holds. Research by Reuters in April 2024, suggested that the capacity utilisation rate hit 50% in that month, suggesting that the sector could meet the target in 2024 if it’s a particularly bad year. So, provided the production cap is enacted along the same lines of peak-shifting, where plants are temporarily shut for periods, then the target looks well within reach.

As reported in April 2024, the Chinese cement sector has faced rationalisation in recent years as the real estate market collapsed. Output peaked in 2020 and then fell subsequently. Most of the big producers endured falling sales volumes, revenue and profit in 2022, although some managed to resist the continuing decline in 2023. One coping mechanism has been to focus on overseas markets as proposed by the government’s Belt and Road initiative. Huaxin Cement has been a particular proponent of this strategy. The CCA says that China-based companies have invested in and built 43 clinker production lines in 21 countries with a cement production capacity of 81Mt/yr. Another 43Mt/yr of capacity is currently being built outside of China with yet another 25Mt/yr of capacity proposed for construction.

It is interesting, then, to note that the CCA issued an official warning this week to its members to invest ‘cautiously’ in Uzbekistan. The association said in a statement that at the end of April 2024 the country had 46 integrated production lines with a cement production capacity of 38Mt/yr. This is double the country’s demand for cement. Half of this production capacity is managed by China-based companies. It added that the utilisation rate was currently 50%, that the price had dropped by about 40% since 2020 and that competition was ‘fierce.’ Incredibly, another 7Mt/yr of capacity is expected to be added in 2024. The CCA has advised Chinese companies to consider the state of the Uzbek cement market before making any more investments.

The two news stories we have explored this week cover two sides of the same issue: Chinese cement overcapacity. The local market is finally slowing down after a period of phenomenal growth and the big question is what is the actual market demand now that all the big stuff has already been built. The government gives every impression it is using the decline to meet its sustainability goals. Like institutions in many other places it has set itself targets that it seems likely to meet. The flipside of overcapacity at home is investment overseas. China-based plant equipment manufacturers have certainly done well out of this situation. Yet in Uzbekistan, at least, it looks like the cement sector in China has also managed to export its overcapacity. This has created the absurd situation where the CCA has implored its members and others to exercise the same self-discipline abroad that the government extols at home. Another way to put this might be that Chinese cement companies are increasingly unable to make money at home… or in Uzbekistan. This then leaves a query over where else enthusiastic Chinese cement investors may be causing market imbalances. One solution might be for the Chinese government to impose a cap on clinker production by its companies outside the mainland. Whatever happens next though, the introduction of a capacity cap in mainland China marks a decisive change to the local cement sector.

Changes are underway in South Asia’s second largest cement sector, with two legal developments that affect the industry set in motion in the past week. At a national level, the Competition Commission of Pakistan recommended that the government require cement producers to include production and expiry dates on the labels of bagged cement. Meanwhile, in Pakistan’s largest province, Punjab, a new law tightened procedures around the establishment and expansion of cement plants. At the same time, the country’s cement producers began to publish their financial results for the first nine months of the 2024 financial year (FY2024).

During the nine-month period up to 31 March 2024, the Pakistani cement industry sold 34.5Mt of cement, up by 3% year-on-year. Producers have responded to the growth with capacity expansions, including the launch of the new 1.3Mt/yr Line 3 of Attock Cement’s Hub cement plant in Balochistan on 17 April 2023. China-based contractor Hefei Cement Research & Design executed the project, including installation of a Loesche LM 56.3+3 CS vertical roller mill, giving the Hub plant a new, expanded capacity of 3Mt/yr.

Pressure has eased on the operating costs of Pakistani cement production, as inflation slowed and the country received a new government in March 2024, following political unrest in 2022 and 2023. Coal prices also settled back to 2019 levels, after prolonged agitation. Pakistan Today News reported the value of future coal supply contracts as US$93/t for June 2024, down by 2% over six months from US$95/t for January 2024.

Nonetheless, cost optimisation remained a ‘strong focus’ in the growth strategy of Fauji Cement, which switched to using local and Afghan coal at its plants during the past nine months. Its reliance on captive power rose to 60% of consumption, thanks to its commissioning of new waste heat recovery and solar power capacity. During the first nine months of FY2024, the company’s year-on-year sales growth of 14% narrowly offset cost growth of 13%, leaving it with net profit growth of 1%.

Looking more closely, the latest sales data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) shows a stark divergence within cement producers’ markets. While exports recorded 68% year-on-year growth to 5.1Mt, domestic sales fell, by 4% to 29.4Mt. The association further breaks down Pakistani cement sales data into South Pakistan (Balochistan and Sindh) and North Pakistan (all other regions). Domestic sales dropped most sharply in South Pakistan, by 6% to 5.16Mt. In the North, they dropped by 3% to 24.2Mt. Part of the reason was a high base of comparison, following flooding-related reconstruction work nationally during the 2023 financial year. Meanwhile, the government finished rolling out track-and-trace on all cement despatches during the opening months of the current financial year, and commenced the implementation of axle load requirements for cement trucks. APCMA flagged both policies as potentially disruptive to its members’ domestic deliveries, amid a strong infrastructure project pipeline.

Pakistani producers suffer from overcapacity, but have established themselves as an important force in the global export market. They continue to locate new markets, including the UK in January 2024. Lucky Cement was among leading exporters overall, with a large share of its orders originating from Africa.

On 17 April 2024, the government of Punjab province set up a committee to assess new proposed cement projects, with the ultimate goal of conserving water. Falling water tables are considered a significant economic threat in agricultural Punjab. Besides completing an inspection by the new committee, proposed projects must also secure clearance from six different provincial government departments and the local government. While acknowledging the necessity of the cement industry, the government insisted that it will take legal action against any cement plant that exceeds water allowances.

Pakistan’s cement plants have grown in anticipation of a local market boom. Without this strong core of sales, underutilisation will remain troublesome, especially in North Pakistan where exposure is highest. At the same time, APCMA has given expression to the perceived lack of support affecting production and distribution. For an industry with expansionist aims, new restrictions on its growth and operations can feel like an existential menace.

Bangladesh: Crown Cement (formerly MI Cement Factory) officially commenced production from its Munshiganj grinding plant’s new Unit 6 on 14 January 2024. The Daily Star newspaper has reported that the new unit increases the Munshiganj plant’s capacity by 72% to 5.7Mt/yr. MI Cement Factory previously signed a US$22.8m syndicated loan facility for the expansion with Eastern Bank Limited on 28 May 2023. The producer said that delays with suppliers and currency crises postponed its delivery of the project. It first postponed the expansion – at that time valued at US$54.6m – due to domestic overcapacity amid the Covid-19 outbreak in October 2020.

India: The India Cements’ earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) reached US$1.68m during the second quarter of the 2024 financial year. The producer recorded a negative EBITDA of US$10.5m during the second quarter of the previous financial year. It succeeded in reducing its net loss by 41% to US$9.73m from US$16.6m. The India Cements said that oversupply and competition placed its cement prices under pressure.

UAE: The director of the World Cement Association (WCA), Ali Emir Adiguzel, told listeners at the association’s 6th Annual Conference in Dubai that the world has ‘enough cement for the next 25 years.’ Adiguzel addressed the issue of overcapacity by noting a ‘substantial’ drop in demand and pointing out that high input costs had led the sector to raise its prices, by as much as 15% in Europe. He also said that the primary challenge facing the cement industry was “meeting stringent emission targets and embracing carbon capture technologies.”

Adiguzel added "Despite our achievements, there is more work to be done in the years to come. To reach our net zero goal by 2050, we must significantly reduce carbon emissions. The technologies and mechanisms for this endeavour appear available, though currently minuscule and not economically fully feasible. Regulatory frameworks must evolve to minimise costs for end customers. Collaboration between the private and public sectors is imperative to facilitate carbon reduction."

Heidelberg Materials reversed the prevailing wisdom for western multinational cement companies this week when it said it was preparing to buy a cement plant in Indonesia. It announced on 17 October 2023 that its Indonesia-based subsidiary Indocement had signed a deal to acquire all the shares of Semen Grobogan’s integrated cement plant in Central Java for an undisclosed sum. This challenges the trend since the mid 2010s of the likes of Holcim and CRH selling up in the developing world and concentrating instead in markets in North America and Europe.

The decision to buy a cement plant in Indonesia raises eyebrows because the country can produce far more cement than it needs at present. Its cement capacity utilisation rate has been below 60% since 2020 and Central Java has the most plants out of all the nation’s regions. Indocement’s own investor relations presentation for the first half of 2023 laid out data from the Ministry of Industry and internal sources forecasting that the utilisation rate would only reach 57% in 2025. National production capacity meanwhile is around 117Mt/yr at present and expected to reach just below 120Mt/yr in 2025.

Before this latest agreement, Indocement operated four integrated plants in the country and it was the country’s second largest cement producer after Semen Indonesia. Heidelberg Materials bought the company in 2001 and currently owns a 55% share in it. Three of these plants it owns directly, with a capacity of around 25Mt/yr across 14 production lines. One of these is the 18Mt/yr Citeureup plant, one of the world’s largest cement plants. However, in 2022 the company leased the Maros integrated cement plant in South Sulawesi, the Banyuwangi grinding plant in East Java and several cement terminals owned by Bosowa Group, including terminals in Makassar, Barru and Garongkong, via production facility lease agreements. It said this was part of a plan to reduce logistics costs and target the east of the country better. The integrated plant has been leased for three years from March 2022 and the grinding plant and terminals for five years from September 2022.

Semen Grobogan’s plant started commercial production in 2022, has a cement production capacity of 2.5Mt/yr and limestone reserves of over 50 years. Germany-based Heidelberg Materials was keen to point out that the acquisition would reward it with “significant synergies with Indocement’s existing plants in Indonesia” such as in logistics, alternative fuels, and transfer of technical and sustainability knowledge.

It is worth noting financially that Indocement suffered a couple of bad years during the Covid-19 pandemic with revenue and profit down. However, the situation improved in 2022 with both net revenue and earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the year up by 11% year-on-year to US$1.04bn and 4% to US$220m respectively. Despite the company’s sales volumes falling by 2% to 17.6% and energy prices increasing it was able to raise its prices. The first half of 2023 has seen the improvements accelerate with more price rises, higher domestic sales volumes from the new leased operations and increased clinker exports to Bangladesh and Brunei.

The improving financial outlook for Indocement and the new condition of many of its clinker production lines may help to explain what is going on here. The Citeureup plant started up in late 2016 and, combined with the Semen Grobogan plant that started up in 2022, both plants cover three-quarters of the company’s production capacity. In a highly competitive market such as Java this may make a significant difference. Consider also the leased plant at Maros, in the less well-served Sulawesi region, and that focus on terminals elsewhere. Here one might be able to view another approach to coping with overcapacity, by targeting different markets either directly or via exports.

It won’t be clear how well Heidelberg Material’s strategy in Indonesia is working until like-for-like financial figures start to be released. The company itself has warned of various risks such as the country’s impending ban on overloaded trucks and the potential effects of a proposed carbon tax on electricity prices. Another thing to consider are last week’s rumours in the press about Heidelberg Materials selling up in India. If this did happen then the proceeds might well help advance the company’s plans in Indonesia. All of this goes to show that one doesn’t always have to copy one’s corporate peers. The retreat by the western multinationals to safer havens has slowed… for now at least.

The government in Indonesia made building new cement capacity harder this week. The new rules are intended to strengthen the local sector in the face of a utilisation rate of only 53%. A moratorium policy and/or new investment arrangements have been placed on new cement plant projects. Instead, companies have been asked to focus on the regions of Papua, West Papua, Maluku and North Maluku instead, where demand for cement is higher than what the local production base can produce. Ignatius Warsito, the Director General of the Chemical, Pharmaceutical and Textile Industry at the Ministry of Industry, said that the new rules would be reconsidered once the capacity utilisation rate reaches 85%.

Other measures the government is also looking at include increasing exports of cement, changing regulations related to the coal Public Service Agency (BLU) and improving overland transport. On that last point the authorities and the cement producers are looking at how logistics costs can avoid rising in the face of the impending Zero Over Dimension Over Load (ODOL) policy. Proposals the sector has submitted include implementing a multi-axle policy for trucks and improving the quality of certain roads to allow for higher capacity vehicles.

As one of the government’s focus areas - coal - suggests, fuel prices have been a headache for the cement sector in recent years. Warsito noted that international coal prices started to rise in late 2020. This was likely due to the logistical mess that the coronavirus pandemic caused to the global economy. Higher coal prices caused a “significant” effect on the cement industry through both higher production costs and restrictions on supplies. One irony to note here is that Indonesia is one of the world’s leading coal producers. Donny Arsal, the head of Semen Indonesia, told the government in 2022 that the war in Ukraine had enticed local coal companies to export more coal due to the rising international price. At this time he lobbied the administration to use its local domestic market obligation (DMO) subsidy to better serve the cement sector by giving it more coal at a fixed price.

Graph 1: Cement demand and capacity in Indonesia. Source: Semen Indonesia and Indonesia Cement Association.

Overcapacity has been a recurring feature of the Indonesian cement market since at least the 1990s as the demand and capacity have grown sometimes out of step. The capacity utilisation rate reached 90% in the early 1990s only to fall to 50% by the end of that decade due to the Asian financial crisis. More recently Holcim left the market in 2019 when it sold its business to the Semen Indonesia. The state-owned company consolidated more than half of the country’s cement production capacity at the time. According to its data for the first quarter of 2023 it has a 51% market share and a 46% production capacity share. It also said that 92% of local demand was catered for from four of the country’s 14 producers, namely: Semen Indonesia; Indocement; Conch; and Merah Putih.

A recent study by the Jakarta Post newspaper suggested that after a poor first half in 2023, cement demand was expected to rebound and create modest overall annual growth by the end of the year. The key reasons for this outlook are increased government infrastructure spending, ongoing work on the new capital city Nusantara and anticipated price stability. The new city project, for example, is expected to require 1.6Mt of cement in the 2022 - 2024 period. Risk factors, of course, abound such as a global economic slowdown, financial problems at some of the government-owned construction companies like Waskita Karya and new capacity. A new 8Mt/yr (!) plant owned by local company Kobexindo and China-based Honshi Cement, for instance, is scheduled to start operation in the second half of 2023 in East Kalimantan. Even though the government says that the new unit will export 90% of its production, it will place pressure on other existing sites hoping to increase exports.

The country’s largest cement producer being majority owned by the government is a pertinent feature here given that the same government has also effectively banned new capacity. Semen Indonesia’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) have fallen each year consecutively since 2020. As mentioned above overcapacity has long been present in the local sector and recent events have made it worse. Yet, the companies that are likely to benefit the most from a block on newer, competitive cement plants are likely to be the established players. That said, though, with the utilisation just above 50% and new projects like the Kobexindo-Honshi plant on the way, the government likely feels it has to take some form of action. Other tools at its disposal include a national carbon exchange set to launch in September 2023. Power companies will participate from the start with cement producers anticipated to follow at a later stage. Despite the uncertain short-to-medium term outlook the cement sector in Indonesia remains one of the largest in the world with plenty of business to be done. Denmark-based FLSmidth was clearly mindful of this when it opened a new office in Jakarta in April 2023.

Indonesia: The Indonesian cement industry produced 29.3Mt of cement during the first half of 2023. This corresponds to a utilisation rate of 51% across an installed national capacity of 116Mt/yr. Throughout 2022, the industry produced 64Mt of cement and recorded a utilisation rate of 55%. Local capacity utilisation levels in the first half of 2023 were as low as 45% in some regions. Only Bali-Nusa Tenggara Region and Maluku-Papua Region did not suffer from overcapacity. National demand was 28Mt in the first half of 2023 and 63Mt throughout 2022. Meanwhile, first-half exports rose by 12% year-on-year in opening six months of 2023.

Indonesia Government News has reported that the Ministry of Industry has instigated a moratorium on investments in the construction of new cement capacity. Director general Ignatius Warsito said "These efforts can provide legal certainty for cement industry players in the country, as well as support competitiveness." Warsito noted the health of Indonesia's existing export markets for cement, but noted the uncertainty of the industry's coal supply and its price. Coal currently accounts for 40% of Indonesian cement's fuel consumption by value.

Mining and materials company Afrimat said it was buying Lafarge South Africa this week. The assets it is acquiring include aggregate quarries, ready mix concrete (RMX) batching plants, one integrated cement plant, two cement grinding plants, cement terminals and fly-ash sources. The means of purchase is somewhat unusual, as Afrimat is paying around US$6m but it also appears to be taking responsibility for around US$50m of outstanding debt that Lafarge South Africa owes its parent company, Holcim. In a statement Afrimat’s chief executive officer (CEO) Andries van Heerden talked up the benefits for his company in terms of the boost to its aggregates and concrete businesses.

This is quite the change from 2012 when India-based Aditya Birla Group was reportedly looking into buying Lafarge South Africa. At this time the value for the business for a similar mix of assets, including 55 RMX plants and 20 quarries, was said to be to US$900m. Prior to this, Lafarge South Africa spent around US$170m in the late 2000s on increasing the production capacity at its integrated Lichtenburg plant and building its Randfontein grinding plant. Then in 2014, when the merger between Lafarge and Holcim was announced, Lafarge consolidated its Nigeria-based and South Africa-based operations as Lafarge Africa. It later decided to move the South African business to another Holcim subsidiary, Caricement, in 2019 to keep the business in Nigeria more profitable by reducing its debts. This transaction was valued at US$317m. At the time chair Mobolaji Balogun said that Lafarge South Africa’s operations had faced a challenging market in South Africa, with shrinking demand in an aggressively competitive sector. Afrimat is now buying Lafarge South Africa and its subsidiaries from Caricement.

Holcim isn’t alone in making an effort to sell up in South Africa. In April 2023 the Valor Econômico newspaper reported that Brazil-based InterCement was receiving offers for its remaining African-based assets in Mozambique and South Africa with a potential deal valued at around US$300m. InterCement runs Natal Portland Cement in South Africa, which operates one integrated plant and two grinding units. This follows the sale of its Egypt-based assets in January 2023 to an unnamed buyer.

PPC, the country’s largest cement producer, is staying put. However, it issued a mixed trading update this week ahead of the formal release of its annual results to 31 March 2023. Trading conditions in the interior of South Africa and Botswana were described as being ‘difficult,’ with cement sales volumes down by nearly 6% year-on-year and earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) down by 26%. Yet the group says it was able to grow its revenue. PPC’s CEO Roland van Wijnen added, “We therefore remain hopeful that the South African government will roll out its infrastructure development plans and protect the local cement market through the introduction of import tariffs to create a level playing field for domestic producers.” Dangote Cement subsidiary Sephaku Cement was more circumspect in its recent trading update but it too warned that, “deteriorating economic conditions and persistent challenges in the cement industry impacted Sephaku Cement’s financial performance to break-even levels.”

Much of the above makes for gloomy reading. As the local trade association Cement and Concrete South Africa (CCSA) has laid out to local media, the market faces the problem of having 20Mt/yr of production capacity, 12Mt/yr of demand and over 1Mt/yr of imports compounding the problem. Lobbying by local producers against imports has been a feature of the market since the early 2010s and this work continues through the efforts of the CCSA and others. However, the plea by PPC for government infrastructure spending suggests that the market faces more systemic problems. As a consequence some cement producers are trying to leave the market, while others are attempting to tough it out.