Displaying items by tag: Overcapacity

China: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has enacted new regulations requiring cement producers to align cement production with their registered production capacity. It further reminded the industry to adhere to a prohibition on building new capacity and an enforced phase-out of older existing plants. People’s Daily Online News has reported that the ministry is responding to the issue of oversupply and the need for sustainable development.

China Building Materials Federation (CBMF) has forecast a reduction in total national production capacity of 500Mt/yr under ongoing efforts. It plans to establish a disclosure and supervision platform for capacity management. Cement production fell by 23% between 2021 and 2024, according to CBMF data.

Cement producer BBMG Corporation said "We will restructure existing capacity, accelerate the phase-out of inefficient production and increase the share of advanced capacity to achieve value-added growth through optimising existing assets."

The Deputy Prime Minister of Egypt met with representatives of the cement sector last week to discuss the local market. The key topics were prices, increased production capacity and restarting suspended production lines. Then this week it was revealed that the government was preparing to issue two new cement plant licences by the end of 2025. So, what’s been happening in the local sector?

Readers may recall that the Egyptian government tackled overcapacity issues by way of cement production quotas back in 2021. This solved the immediate problems at the time but, since then, there has been a growing problem with local producers focusing on export markets to the detriment of the domestic market. For example, there was a shortage of cement reported in mid-2024 due to a shortage of trucks. Large quantities of these were being used, it transpired, to transport cement to neighbouring Libya. For more on this read Global Cement Weekly #760.

The price of cement peaked earlier in 2025. At this point the government took action by limiting cement exports to no more than 30% of a company’s production volume and by abolishing the quota system. It later reviewed the status of eight idle production lines in an effort to get them running again. Prices subsequently eased according to local media reports. Before the changes, the Cement Division of the Federation of Egyptian Industries said that the country had a production capacity of 76Mt/yr from 46 lines. Domestic consumption was estimated at 46Mt/yr and exports at 20Mt/yr giving a utilisation rate 87%. Note that this export figure is 30% of the total production of the country as a whole. For the first half of 2025, production increased by 24% year-on-year to 30.7Mt from 24Mt in the same period in 2024. Exports rose by 11.5% to 9.7Mt from 8.7Mt. However, data from Al Arabiya Business shows that exports fell by 25% in May and June 2025 following the government action. Production grew by 16%.

Vicat’s financial report for the first half of 2025 reported that export sales volumes in Egypt represented over 50% of the local subsidiary’s total sales volumes. It also noted that the domestic price surpassed the export price during the reporting period. Titan Group said that its local business had experienced an ‘impressive turnaround’ due to a construction boom in the country. It said that its plants operated at ‘high capacity’ with an alternative fuels (AF) thermal substitution rate of around 40%. It added that it was intending to expand storage capacity to support growing export volumes. By contrast, Cementir endured a tougher trading period due, in part, to less exports following technical problems related to the restart of a local production line.

A source quoted by Al Arabiya from the Export Council for Building Materials noted that there had been a ‘significant’ decline in exports to several major markets, including Libya, Lebanon, the US, Ivory Coast and Ghana. That anonymous source also warned that, if the problem with the domestic market could not be resolved quickly, then the sector risked losing export markets where reconstruction work was taking place. These comments were mirrored by Adam Khalil, a Building Materials Sector Analyst at Al Ahly Pharos Securities, who told local media this week that the anticipated reconstruction of Gaza presented benefits for Egypt-based construction and building materials companies. In particular, he noted the proximity of Sinai Cement to the Gaza Strip. Unfortunately, at the time of writing, the latest ceasefire between Gaza and Israel appears to have been breached.

The other part of the government action has been focusing on increasing AF substitution rates. At the meeting with the Deputy Prime Minister this month the stated aim was to reduce production cuts. To this end, a report on the number of waste recycling plants was reviewed and compared to the requirements of each cement plant. The government intends to set up ‘practical implementation mechanisms’ to maximise the usage of AF. Energy sources have been a particular bugbear for the cement sector in Egypt historically as the government has encouraged producers to switch fuels from time to time.

The wider economy in Egypt continues to face headwinds. Cementir, for example, in its half year report said that the country’s economy was “...being held back by high inflation, devaluation, rising energy costs, pressure on manufacturing industries and a revision of the state budget with the suspension of infrastructure projects.” However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its growth forecast for Egypt in 2025 and 2026 in mid-October 2025. The decision by the government to cap exports of cement and cut the production quota marks a serious change since 2021. It is clearly watching the situation closely. The timing from roughly in the middle of the year should make the effects clear to see in the annual reports in early 2026. We will wait until then.

Sectoral adjustment continued for the cement industry in China in 2024. Now that the financial results from many of the larger China-based cement producers are out it gives Global Cement Weekly a chance to review the world’s biggest cement market. The decline in national output of cement accelerated in 2024 and the results showed this. CNBM summed up the situation as follows: “In 2024, affected by the reduction of real estate investment and the slowdown of infrastructure projects, the cement industry in China was caught in a situation of insufficient demand and aggravated overcapacity.” Output dropped by just under 10% year-on-year to 1.83Bnt in 2024 according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). This is the fourth consecutive annual decline and the lowest figure the sector has experienced since around 2010.

Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2024. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

The China Cement Association’s (CCA) assessment concurred with CNBM. Although it detected a slowing in the decline in the second half of 2024, especially in the fourth quarter. It noted that the country has a production capacity of 1.81Bnt/yr and an estimated clinker utilisation rate of 53% in 2024. Note the large apparent difference this may suggest between the NBS and CCA figures. Data from the NBS for the first quarter of 2025 has shown a slowing of the decline. Output was 331Mt, a fall of just 1.7% year-on-year from the same period in 2023. The CCA’s prediction for 2025 is that cement demand will fall by 5% as the real estate market continues to deflate. However, it expects government-led capacity reduction schemes to start making progress.

Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

CNBM’s sales revenue fell by 14% to US$24.8bn in 2024. Sales of its Basic Building Materials segment fell by 23% to US$12.5bn. This was blamed on falling volumes and prices of cement and other heavy building materials. Sales from the group’s two other segments - New Materials and Engineering Technology Services - rose modestly but this wasn’t enough to hold up total group sales. Operating profit from the Basic Building Materials segment decreased by 45% to US$544m. It was a similar picture at Anhui Conch with sales revenue and net profit down by 36% to US$12.4bn and by 25% to US$1.01bn respectively. Notably, CNBM’s sales volumes of cement decreased by 21% to 245Mt in 2024 compared to a decrease of 6.5% to 268Mt by Anhui Conch. This made Anhui Conch the world’s biggest cement company by sales volumes in 2024.

Tangshan Jidong Cement and China Resources Building Materials Technology (CRBMT) both reported a similar situation. Revenue was down and a net loss was reported by the former. Both revenue and net profit were down for the latter. CRBMT said that its cement capacity utilisation rate was 69% in 2024, down from 71% in 2023. This appears to be significantly higher than the national rate mentioned above by the CCA but the company’s regional distribution may be at play here.

Following from recent years, Huaxin Cement bucked the general market trend and its revenue rose modestly to US$4.7bn in 2024. Its net profit still fell by 12.5% to US$330m. Its overseas businesses made the difference. It reported an increase of 37% to 16.2Mt in overseas cement sales with its non-China cement production capacity rising by 8% to 22.5Mt/yr. Milestones include various new or upgraded plant projects in Sub-Saharan Africa capped off by its announcement at the end of 2024 that it was preparing to buy Lafarge Africa. Other cement companies were also keen to promote overseas activity. CNBM said that the first signing of overseas merger and acquisition was achieved in 2024. This is likely to be the purchase of the Djebel El Oust cement plant in Tunisia from Votorantim Cimentos that was completed in late March 2025. Tangshan Jidong Cement acquired the remaining 40% share in South Africa-based Mamba Cement in April 2024.

All of this leaves the cement sector in China still waiting for the market to stabilise. US tariffs seem unlikely to have an effect in any meaningful way unless the general economy is altered. The declining real estate sector and cement production overcapacity are the main drivers at the national level. The CCA expects the real estate market to continue to fall in 2025 although it hopes that government remedy measures will start to show an effect. It is more optimistic about capacity reduction plans. One route towards this is through merger and acquisition activity. In a recent response to investors about industry integration, Huaxin Cement speculated that the sector might consolidate down to 30 companies from around 300 at present. There is clearly still a way to go.

Vietnam: The Ministry of Construction has reported a cement surplus to the Prime Minister, blaming a supply-demand imbalance. The country has 92 cement production lines with a capacity of over 122Mt/yr, according to the Việt Nam News newspaper. However, cement and clinker consumption was 95Mt in 2024, with 65Mt used domestically and 30Mt exported.

Planning regulations governing cement plants were relaxed in 2017. Subsequently, local authorities approved 13 new units that added 35Mt/yr in capacity. The Ministry of Construction proposed a national building materials strategy capping total cement production at 125Mt/yr by 2025 and 150Mt/yr by 2030. The ministry has also urged provincial governments to limit new cement projects to prevent excessive supply. It has proposed tightening the planning laws on building new cement plants.

The Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA) has highlighted weak market demand and production constraints as major challenges to the sector. It has lobbied the government to promote housing, infrastructure and road projects to grow the cement market.

Indonesia: Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) chair Lilik Unggul Raharjo has called for a more ‘robust’ approach to production overcapacity in the cement sector. In a statement by the ASI he lobbied for the government to strengthen its ban on the construction of new plants, according to the Jakarta Post newspaper and Kontan. At present the moratorium applies to obtaining licences via the country’s integrated electronic licensing system (OSS). Lilik also requested a better legal framework to protect the industry.

The government says it is using the block on investment in new cement plants to support the local sector. Restrictions are in place for regions such as Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan and Sulawesi. However, the government is ‘open’ to new plants being built in areas that have no existing units including Papua and Maluku.

ASI data shows that cement sales reached 77Mt in 2024 with a capacity utilisation rate of 65%. Domestic sales fell by just under 1% year-on-year to 65Mt in 2024. Exports grew by 10% to 12Mt. The ASI expects domestic sales of cement to increase by up to 2% in 2025.

Vietnam: The general director of Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (VICEM), Nguyen Thanh Tung, says that Vietnam will suffer continued cement overcapacity amid high production costs in 2025. Full-year production is forecast at 125Mt, 96% greater than an expected domestic demand of 63.5Mt. Việt Nam News has reported that Vietnam’s cement exports face an on-going investigation in Taiwan, and are already subject to anti-dumping duties in the Philippines.

VICEM aims to raise its domestic clinker sales volumes by 8% year-on-year to 18Mt, in order to generate sales of US$1.16bn. To this end, Tung urged the government to adopt cement reinforcement in roadbuilding, as well as lifting the export tax on cement.

Global: The World Cement Association (WCA) projects a 22% decline in global cement demand by 2050. Price increases are expected to continue in European and North American markets, while significant market restructuring is already underway to address overcapacity in China and Japan. Multinational companies are scaling back cement business and focusing instead on North America, while cement production in Europe continues to decline due to strict CO₂ regulations and capacity reductions.

India's cement production has surpassed 200Mt/yr, with domestic firms strengthening their position as multinationals exit the market. Chinese producers are expanding their presence, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia.

WCA president Wei Rushan said “To remain both profitable and environmentally responsible, the cement industry must aim to reduce capacity by 50%, from 4.7Bnt/yr to 2.3Bnt/yr within the next decade. This requires focusing on modern, sustainable production units.”

Oman: Raysut Cement says that production overcapacity in neighbouring countries has led to excess supply in the local market. This in turn has placed “pressure” on cement prices. The company added that exports to the Maldives, Yemen and east Africa had also slowed due to regional political instability, negative currency exchange effects and higher competition. The cement producer’s revenue fell slightly year-on-year from US$128m in the first nine months of 2023 to US$127m in the same period in 2024. However, its net loss grew from US$8.71m to US$14.6m.

Nepal: Exports of cement to India via the Kakarvitta road border crossing in Jhapa totalled 50,000t in the 2024 financial year, which ended on 15 July 2024. KhabarHub News has reported that shipments had a combined value of US$3.81m. The Kakarvitta crossing had not previously served to convey major despatches of cement between the two countries. The cement industry in Jhapa is 50% dependent on export markets for its demand. Eight plants operate in the district, of which three currently sit idle due to 40% local oversupply.

The National Development and Reform Commission and other government bodies in China released plans this week to cap clinker production capacity at 1.8Bnt/yr by the end of 2025. Energy efficiency of existing capacity will be used as the driver to determine which production lines can remain open. 30% of capacity will be required to be above the benchmark energy efficiency level. Plants below this line will be obliged to upgrade or face elimination.

Points of interest from the longer release include detail on how the authorities intend to promote energy efficiency. Installing improved production line equipment is as might be expected. However, there is also a drive towards low-carbon fuel substitution such as an increased thermal substitution rate (TSR) through the use of alternative fuels (AF), promotion of renewable energy sources and, interestingly, no new cement plants will be able to add captive coal power plants. The government is targeting a TSR of 10% by the end of 2025 with 30% of lines using AF in some form or another. A plan to reduce the clinker factor in cement is also being pushed through for the increased use of blast furnace slag, fly ash, carbide slag, manganese slag and other supplementary cementitious materials. This last point might have big implications for the ferrous slag export market but that’s a story for another day.

Working out how much these new measures will affect the cement sector in China in the short term is not straightforward since it’s unclear what the country’s actual production capacity is and how much of it is actually active. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that cement output was 2.02Bnt in 2023. The China Cement Association (CCA) estimated that the capacity utilisation rate was 59% in 2023. So, if the sector were using all of its integrated cement plants flat out, then one might crudely suppose that the national production capacity might be around 3.5Bnt/yr. This guess does not take into account the prevalence of blended cements and a whole host of other factors so should be treated with caution. Given that cement output fell by 5% year-on-year in 2023, output could be just over 1.8Bnt in 2025 if the rate of decline holds. Research by Reuters in April 2024, suggested that the capacity utilisation rate hit 50% in that month, suggesting that the sector could meet the target in 2024 if it’s a particularly bad year. So, provided the production cap is enacted along the same lines of peak-shifting, where plants are temporarily shut for periods, then the target looks well within reach.

As reported in April 2024, the Chinese cement sector has faced rationalisation in recent years as the real estate market collapsed. Output peaked in 2020 and then fell subsequently. Most of the big producers endured falling sales volumes, revenue and profit in 2022, although some managed to resist the continuing decline in 2023. One coping mechanism has been to focus on overseas markets as proposed by the government’s Belt and Road initiative. Huaxin Cement has been a particular proponent of this strategy. The CCA says that China-based companies have invested in and built 43 clinker production lines in 21 countries with a cement production capacity of 81Mt/yr. Another 43Mt/yr of capacity is currently being built outside of China with yet another 25Mt/yr of capacity proposed for construction.

It is interesting, then, to note that the CCA issued an official warning this week to its members to invest ‘cautiously’ in Uzbekistan. The association said in a statement that at the end of April 2024 the country had 46 integrated production lines with a cement production capacity of 38Mt/yr. This is double the country’s demand for cement. Half of this production capacity is managed by China-based companies. It added that the utilisation rate was currently 50%, that the price had dropped by about 40% since 2020 and that competition was ‘fierce.’ Incredibly, another 7Mt/yr of capacity is expected to be added in 2024. The CCA has advised Chinese companies to consider the state of the Uzbek cement market before making any more investments.

The two news stories we have explored this week cover two sides of the same issue: Chinese cement overcapacity. The local market is finally slowing down after a period of phenomenal growth and the big question is what is the actual market demand now that all the big stuff has already been built. The government gives every impression it is using the decline to meet its sustainability goals. Like institutions in many other places it has set itself targets that it seems likely to meet. The flipside of overcapacity at home is investment overseas. China-based plant equipment manufacturers have certainly done well out of this situation. Yet in Uzbekistan, at least, it looks like the cement sector in China has also managed to export its overcapacity. This has created the absurd situation where the CCA has implored its members and others to exercise the same self-discipline abroad that the government extols at home. Another way to put this might be that Chinese cement companies are increasingly unable to make money at home… or in Uzbekistan. This then leaves a query over where else enthusiastic Chinese cement investors may be causing market imbalances. One solution might be for the Chinese government to impose a cap on clinker production by its companies outside the mainland. Whatever happens next though, the introduction of a capacity cap in mainland China marks a decisive change to the local cement sector.