Displaying items by tag: UK

Tata Steel put up its UK business for sale last week. The Indian multinational declared that enough was enough having reported losses of over Euro2.5bn in the territory over five years. Non-UK readers may well wonder what the fuss is about. UK crude steel production comprised 10.9Mt in 2015 or about 0.7% of global production according to World Steel Association data according to World Steel Association data. By contrast the country produced 9.3Mt of cement in 2014 or about 0.2% of world production according to CEMBUREAU data according to CEMBUREAU data.

The UK’s flailing steel industry is worth discussing here for two reasons. Firstly, any decline in the local iron and steel industry will have implications for the supplementary cementitious materials (SCM) market as slag levels vary. Secondly, the cement industry in Europe may have lessons for a fellow heavy industry facing capacity rationalisation.

UK ground granulated blastfurnace slag (GGBS) production levels are low compared to total world supply. However, the UK Competition Commission certainly took note of the GGBS market in 2014. It was worried by LafargeTarmac’s and Hanson’s prominence in both the local GGBS supply chain and local cement production. At that time it ordered the HeidelbergCement subsidiary Hanson to sell one of its slag grinding plants to increase competition in the supply chain for GGBS. A GGBS plant in Scunthorpe was eventually sold to Francis Flowers in July 2015.

The general point here is that a Tata sale of its UK operations could have ramifications for the UK GGBS sector as existing deals are renegotiated following the shakeup. It would be even worse for the local slag market if any of the plants closed. No doubt the Competition Commission would also want to have its say to maintain some sort of competition in an already concentrated market. The UK cement market has been the bright spot in the multinational cement producers’ European regions in 2015. However, construction growth is starting to slow again with hints that the looming European Referendum in June 2016 may be having a negative effect. Uncertainty over GGBS supplies is not helpful in this atmosphere.

A wider lesson for other national cement industries looking in is that if Chinese steel continues flood the world market it will also hit the cement industry. Tata’s woes have been squarely blamed on China dumping its steel on the world market. Various jurisdictions promote the use of SCM cements and concrete for their low-carbon and sustainability properties. If local or existing GGBS supplies are hit then the cement industries may be penalised while the lawmakers and competition bodies play catch-up.

The wider point about heavy industry reducing its production capacity is one that the European cement industry will be well used to. Spain, for example, has seen its cement production drop from 55Mt in 2007 to 15Mt in 2014 according to Oficemen data. Alongside this, demand for cement has dropped to levels not seen since the 1960s. The European response has been to shut plants, sell assets and to merge companies.

The big question following the 2008 recession is whether ‘this’ is the new normal for mature construction markets. Eight years later global interest rates are still lagging and China’s economy is slowing down. All of the European infrastructure was built long ago meaning that steel and cement will only be required to maintain it. Luckily it looks likely that demand for SCMs should stay buoyant as industries are encouraged to decarbonise. The problem though is where the slag comes from. Oversupply in the short term in areas like Europe might be great for cement producers but as the iron and steel industries readjust to market reality there might be a hangover in store.

UK: Hanson Cement has appointed Robert Keough as technical development manager at its cement plant in Ketton, Lincolnshire. His role will involve promoting the sustainability credentials of concrete specifications and emphasising the use of ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS) as a sustainable cement replacement product.

Keough has two years’ experience working for Hanson UK’s parent company, HeidelbergCement Group, as an engineer in training, giving him a firm foundation in the organisation’s values. During this time he worked in the continuous improvement team where he focused on reducing costs and increasing operational performance across the aggregates business.

Keough, aged 26 years, holds a bachelors degree in chemistry with management from the University of Bath and a master’s degree in minerals engineering from the University of Exeter. He holds experience with the financial services company Hargreaves Lansdown.

UK: Untha UK has appointed Marcus Brew as its new managing director. Brew was previously the sales director. The previous managing director since 1997, Chris Oldfield, will become the company chairman.

"Having been a part of the business for seven years, it is a pleasure to now lead the company through our next phase of growth. In truth, Chris and I won't feel much of a change, as we've both been concentrating on these responsibilities for some time – the new titles are really just a formality," commented Brew.

UK: Martin Riley has been appointed Senior Vice President of Tarmac. He will report to Ken McKnight, President Europe Heavyside. Riley was previously Managing Director, Aggregates and Asphalt at Tarmac. The appointment is part of the transition of the businesses acquired from Lafarge Holcim into the European Heavyside business of CRH.

In addition, the Tarmac Cement and Lime business will integrate into a new CRH business cluster consisting of UK Cement, Ireland and Spain, led by Oliver Mahon, Senior Vice President, who will also report to Ken McKnight. As part of this reorganisation the former CEO of Tarmac since 2013, Cyrille Ragoucy, will leave the business.

We're going to start 2016 with a list of some of the worst things that could happen to the global cement industry this year. The idea is taken from Bloomberg Business who ran 'A Pessimist's Guide to the World in 2016' in mid-December 2015. For some of these suggestions there will be both winners and losers. Remember: forewarned is forearmed.

Continuing low oil prices hit Russia and other petro-propped economies
Cheaper fossil fuels should mean cheaper energy bills for cement producers. However, that saving must be compared to the overall cost to the global cement industry of poor construction markets in Russia and other economies that rely on oil. For example, Russian construction output fell by 4.5% to US$81bn in 2014 according to PMR. It is possible that the fuels bill saving worldwide is greater than the contraction of certain construction markets. If it is though, is this a price that the cement industry is willing to pay?

China enters a recession
The long-expected Chinese 'hard landing' seems closer than ever, as economic growth slows. It hasn't happened yet (according to official figures at least) but the 7% drop in Chinese markets on 4 January 2015 gives observers the jitters. The financial reverberations from a full Chinese financial crash would be felt around the world, derailing emerging economies due to reducing demand for exports and commodities. Naturally, construction markets would suffer. This would add to the woes currently being experienced by Brazil, Russia and South Africa. The other worry for the cement industry specifically might be the complications from a desperate Chinese industry trying to flood the outside world with even more of its products and services, including lots of cement.

Climate change impacts cement plants
Normally when it comes to climate change the cement industry worries about the effects of carbon taxation and pollution controls. However, media reporting about flooding in the UK in late December 2015 and strong El Niño effects elsewhere makes a pessimist wonder about the effects of hotter and wetter weather upon the infrastructure of the industry. The cost to repair the flooded Cemex UK South Ferriby cement plant in 2014 was rumoured to run to Euro14m and production stopped for a whole year. Costs like these are something the industry could do without.

International sanctions remain in place for Iran
Hoping that lifting economic sanctions from Iran will boost the fortunes of multinational cement producers and equipment manufacturers may be wishful thinking. Yet if the sanctions stay in place due to deteriorating relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia then nobody can discover what opportunities there might be in the world's fourth largest cement producing nation. Of course Iran's geographical neighbours across the Gulf (and in Pakistan) might be hoping that the sanctions stay in place for a very long time indeed.

Sub-Saharan Africa builds production capacity too fast
Multinationals and local cement producers alike are scrambling to build cement plants in sub-Saharan Africa. Demand for cement and low per capita consumption suggest that it is a clear investment opportunity as development kicks in. However, we have already reported on scraps between local cement associations and importers from other continents. If the cement producers build capacity faster than these countries develop, then a crash can't be too far fround the corner and everybody loses.

The UK leads an exodus from the European Union
For the cement industry a UK exit, to be voted on later in 2016, from the European Union (EU) isn't necessarily a bad things. What would be negative though is a badly handled exit process as vast swathes of trade legislation is renegotiated. What a 'Brexit' might initiate are further exits from the EU, leading to further trade disruption on a larger scale. None of this would aid Europe's economic recovery in the short term.

US Presidential elections slow the construction market
Irish bookmaker Paddy Power is currently placing odds of 9/2 for Donald Trump to be elected the next US president in late 2016. He's the second favourite candidate after Hillary Clinton despite not even having been nominated as the Republican party's presidential candidate yet. Whoever becomes the next president, the political uncertainty that occurs as the election progresses may impact upon the US construction market. It would be unfortunate to discover that the sector is weaker than expected if, say, the election rhetoric turns nasty.

Next week: reasons to be cheerful.

Happy New Year from Global Cement!

UK: Simon Vivian, Chief Executive of Breedon Aggregates Limited, has been appointed as Chairman of the UK's Mineral Products Association (MPA) for the next two years. He succeeded Bill Brett, effective 1 September 2015. Vivian is the third chairman of the MPA to date to serve from an independent company.

"We are delighted that Simon has agreed to pick up the baton from Bill. His wide industry knowledge and experience will be invaluable to the association as we look to set the agenda for the industry for the next 10 years and respond to the challenges ahead," said MPA Chief Executive Nigel Jackson

The MPA looks out for the interests of the UK's cement producers.

UK: Investment boutique Perella Weinberg Partners has hired LafargeHolcim co-chairman Wolfgang Reitzle as an advisory partner.

Reitzle, also a former chief executive of the German gas maker Linde and chairman of the supervisory board of German car supplier Continental, will provide counsel in a senior role to the investment firm and its clients, especially in Europe, according to Perella Weinberg. He will continue in his role at LafargeHolcim.

Reitzle has had previous dealings with Perella Weinberg Partners; Holcim appointed Perella Weinberg banker Dietrich Becker to renegotiate the terms of its merger with Lafarge. "Reitzle has an exceptional track record of successfully managing growth across a variety of industries," said Joseph Perella, co-founder and chairman of Perella Weinberg Partners.

UK: Aggregate Industries' new cement division will be led by Joe Hudson as managing director of cement and concrete products. He joins Aggregate Industries from Lafarge, where he has worked in a number of key functional and operational roles since 2001. Hudson was heavily involved in preparations for the LafargeHolcim merger as group senior vice president for organisation and development at Lafarge and has experience of running a cement business, having previously worked as managing director / CEO for Lafarge Wapco Plc in Nigeria.

CRH's ambitions took a setback this week when the Irish Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (CCPC) raided the offices of its subsidiary Irish Cement as part of an investigation into the bagged-cement industry in Ireland. Details are vague but the media reports state that the inquiry is examining whether or not the Irish market leader has abused its dominant position in the market, valued at Euro50m/yr.

Undoubtedly CRH and Irish Cement hold a leading place in the local cement industry. Irish Cement runs two integrated cement plants in the Republic with a combined production capacity of 2.7Mt/yr. This constitutes 79% of the country's 3.4t/yr total capacity.

Previous acquisition activity such as CRH's purchase of Dudman Group's UK import terminals in July 2013 has led to concerns regarding market competition. At that time Irish cement importer Eircem complained to the UK Competition Commission (CC), claiming that 'there is no free competition' in the market and also to initiate proceedings against CRH for damages relating to alleged anti-competitive behaviour in that market.

Roll the clock forward nearly two years and CRH is making the headlines once more for a much larger acquisition portfolio: the purchase of the largest chunk of assets sold from the merger of Lafarge and Hocim. With regards to Ireland and the UK, CRH will take on three (Dunbar, Tunstead and Aberthaw) of Lafarge Tarmac's five cement plants. Lafarge Tarmac's other two plants (Cookstown and Cauldon) will become part of the Aggregate Industries division of Lafarge Holcim. And once again, following acquisition activity competition, questions are looming as the CCPC raid suggests. This time though the potential impact of any market abuse, if it is actually happening, is far larger given the influx of UK and European assets that CRH are taking on.

We don't know what the CCPC will find but we can look at how CRH was viewed in the UK CC report on 'Aggregates, cement and ready-mix concrete market investigation' published in January 2014. At that time the CC concluded that, "We have seen nothing to suggest... that the recent acquisitions by CRH will result in importers collectively or individually offering a significantly greater constraint on cement producers than in the past." Amusingly though CRH also told the CC that it had no major expansion plants for the UK.

We also know how one of CRH's competitors felt about them. One of the more telling quotations from the CC report was from a Commercial Manager, at Lafarge Cement Ireland who viewed expansion in Ireland by Lafarge as a 'mechanism' to control CRH's ambitions by attacking it in its home market by showing CRH that Lafarge was a global player. Ironically the comments of that anonymous manager look very different now that CRH is on track to becoming a global player itself.

With the UK going to the polls on 7 May 2015 in a general election what does this all mean for the local cement industry? Some of the main issues for a buoyant cement industry are market demand, energy costs and government interference through issues like taxation or restrictions on international trading.

Probably the first big problem facing the UK cement industry would be construction market uncertainty following any prolonged post-electoral negotiations. At the time of writing the polls predict that neither of the main political parties will be able to form a legislative majority without the formation of some sort of coalition with a number of minority parties. This also has relevance for eventual policy, so more on this later. Additional political deadlock might also arise from the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP), potentially the largest minority party, and their demands for further political devolution from the rest of the UK.

Following this, the main two political parties, the Conservatives and Labour, are fairly similar from their manifesto statements advocating deficit reduction, no major new taxes and a continuation of carbon emission targets. If either party gets in, general government should continue as before with major infrastructure projects carrying on as planned and an emphasis on the economy or public spending respectively.

Differences start to emerge with the Conservative Party, a centre-right group with a liberal economic agenda, promising a national referendum on continued membership of the European Union (EU) that could lead to Britain leaving the EU in a so-called Brexit. This could cause complications for businesses with strong European links such as the cement industry. However a 'Brexit' might not be all bad news for heavy energy users as they could potentially renegotiate their carbon emission targets.

Meanwhile, the Labour Party, a centre-left group, immediately takes a negative point since its current leader held a senior economic post in the Labour government in the build-up to the crash in 2008. Since that time three integrated cement plants in the UK have closed. Back to the current election, threats to reform the consumer energy markets might have knock-on effects for business consumers. However, traditionally the Labour Party encourages higher spending that might lead to more large-scale infrastructure projects like the much-maligned High Speed Two railway line from London to the north. These kinds of projects would need lots of cement.

If any of the other minority parties get to carry an influence in a coalition they may be able to influence certain policies as the price for their support. For example, a UKIP right-wing coalition would demand a EU referendum. A Green left-wing coalition would push for decarbonisation energy policies and/or anti-fracking measures. Both of these outcomes could have effects on cement production. The other issue that minority regional players in a coalition might have is concerning changes to cement plants in their part of the world. For example, threats to shut a cement plant in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland might then gain a higher profile to any administration that includes the SNP, the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland or Plaid Cymru in Wales.

In summary, it is easy to identify what the UK cement industry wants but far harder to determine what will happen after the election. Assuming there is a government that is! The country holds a mature cement industry with limited infrastructure opportunities. Barring real political change such as a Green surge it will be business as usual on 8 May 2015. Cement kilns will keep turning.