Displaying items by tag: Uzbekistan

A few news stories in recent weeks have emerged concerning falling cement sales in Central Asian countries. Steppe Cement reported in mid-April 2016 that its cement sales had fallen by 12% year-on-year to US$5.98m in the first quarter of 2016 from US$6.79m in the same period in 2015. The cement producer noted an overall drop of 16% in the cement market in Kazakhstan, with a slowing reduction in March 2016 compared to the preceding four months. It forecast that the domestic cement market would contract by 1.1Mt in 2016 to 8.5Mt. The country has a cement production capacity of 11.85Mt/yr according to Global Cement Directory 2016 data. So on average this would see a drop in the capacity utilisation rate to 72% from 81%.

Likewise, Italcementi reported a fall in cement consumption in the fourth quarter of 2015 although overall in 2015 it reported consumption up by 9%. It is currently upgrading its Shymkent cement plant to a dry kiln with testing planned for early 2016. Meanwhile, HeidelbergCement – the other multinational present in the country, reported cement sales growth of over 9% due in part to the ramp-up of its new CaspiCement cement plant. How this will turn out after HeidelbergCement takes control of Italcementi remains to be seen.

Then, Holcim Azerbaijan reported that its sales had fallen by 37% to US$56m in 2015. It blamed the resultant loss it made on not being able to cut its production costs fast enough to match the falling revenue. The parent company LafargeHolcim blamed it on a ‘significant’ decline in public and private construction. Elsewhere, the World Bank reported a 13% drop in the construction sector in the second half of 2015 as the government cut investment.

Tajikistan may have broken this pattern as it reported that its cement production volumes rose by 33% to 373,000t in the first quarter of 2016. Over half of this output came from the 1Mt/yr Huaksin Ghayyur Cement plant that was commissioned in March 2016. The same news source reported government estimates that local demand will be 3.5Mt/yr in 2016. Similarly, Turkmenistan reported growing cement production in 2015 due to the opening of the 1.4Mt/yr Polimeks cement plant in Lebap. Otherwise there has been little reported recently from the cement industries in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan although the World Bank has reported that their economies are in reasonable shape.

The multinational cement producers all noted the economic problems caused by low oil prices in the Central Asian countries in which they operate. In February 2016 this was reinforced by the International Monetary Fund after its latest visit to Azerbaijan. The World Bank also expects little growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the region in 2016. Low oil prices have followed economic problems in Russia that have also impacted upon the region due to its economic ties with that country and membership of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

This is bad news for the local markets but it is especially bad news for the Chinese cement industry. As China has faced production overcapacity and falling prices at home, its suppliers and producers have sped off down the Silk Road to seek expansion prospects elsewhere. With this route blocked, the Chinese industry faces one fewer opportunity to avoid the crunch at home.

For more information of the cement industries in Central Asia read Global Cement's feature on the region from January 2016

The past few weeks have been notable for the high number of cement plant projects announced. Aside from further Dangote developments in Africa, (which doesn't seem to be able to go a week without announcing some 'milestone' or another,) a growing number have been in 'new' markets, especially in Central Asia.

The list from the past month or so is impressive. In east Asia Myanmar's Ait Thit Man group has announced that it will double its capacity from 5000t/day to 10,000t/day. In the south, Shree Cement wants to build another new facility in India. In west Asia, Pakistan, a country that has not seen significant cement capacity investment in the past few years, will be getting a new plant in Salt Range courtesy of China's Yantai Yantai Baoqiao Jinhong.

Turkmenistan looks set to build a 1Mt/yr plant as part of a massive government industrial stimulus package. China's Jilong Group wants to build a 0.8Mt/yr plant in Issyk Kul, Krygyzstan. Another Chinese producer, Xinjiang Tianshan will be bringing a 1.2Mt/yr plant to Georgia. Even today (Wednesday 30 September 2015), we have heard that there will be further Chinese investment, this time by Shangfeng Cement. It has announced financing for two new plants: in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Both are set to be 1.2Mt/yr facilities.

Two trends are clear from this. 1. Land-locked Central Asian and other relatively undeveloped countries elsewhere in Asia are finally coming to the cement plant party. 2. It is the Chinese producers that have the upper hand in these markets. This is based partly on cultural, political, geographical and historic links between China and these former Soviet nations. It is partly due to the lower 'face value' cost of Chinese equipment compared to European manufacturers. (The efficiency with which the lower cost equipment is installed and its running costs remain potential pitfalls, according to the Europeans.) Finally, it has a lot to do with the collapse of domestic demand for cement plants in China itself, where the economy continues to teeter on the brink.

The steady rise of the Central Asian cement sector and the increasing international activities of Chinese cement plant manufacturers have been 'on the cards' for years. To date, they have been trends waiting to happen, but 2015 looks to be the year that these factors finally combined and translated into large numbers of projects.

For Central Asian countries the prospects that come with a larger and more dynamic cement industry should enable greater independence, accelerated infrastructure development and economic growth. For the Chinese, setting up cement plants in Central Asia is a natural expansion of its multi-billion dollar activities in the African cement sector, where Sinoma recently signed a massive deal with Dangote Cement. As noted previously in this column, Africa can't continue to add capacity at the current rate forever.

For European manufacturers of cement plants, the other side of this story is not as pretty. AGAB, the large plant manufacturing group of Germany's Verband Deutscher Maschinen- und Anlagenbau (VDMA), has recently released its Status Report 2014/2015, which reports on activities from 2014. AGAB members' cement plant order volume fell by an incredible 63% in 2014 to Euro198m. This is a fall from Euro529m in 2013 and six times lower than the Euro1.2bn peak of 2008. Some of this is domestically driven but the vast majority of it is export markets.

The same report also shows that, for construction of all types of large industrial plants, Chinese producers have increased their global market share from 5% in 2006 to 17% in 2014. Over the same period, Western European producers have seen their share fall from 45% to 33%, although an increase in overall project volumes mean that these producers received roughly the same value of orders in each year. US suppliers, although not a major consideration for the cement sector, saw their share of orders fall from 22% to 20%. Japan also lost a third of its stake over the same period, falling from 15% of sales in 2006 to just 10% in 2014.

While AGAB's report anticipates increased competition from Chinese producers, it is by no means all 'doom and gloom' for Europe's traditional large plant manufacturers. It highlights the fact that Russia, the largest single market for heavy plant in 2014 and a significant consumer of European-made cement equipment, has decided against Chinese equipment in some cases. It also highlighted that the weakness of the Euro helps exports from Germany and the rest of the Eurozone and suggests that the sector should look to increase its service and consultation offering in order to build on its existing reputation for high quality equipment.

A group of news stories from Central Asia and Azerbaijan this week present a good opportunity to look at the cement industry in this part of the world.

Uzbekistan

Eurocement has announced that it plans to build a 2.4Mt/yr cement plant near to Tashkent. Chinese contractors have been signed for the work in line with the Russia-based cement producer's other plant builds in 2014. Eurocement also operate a subsidiary in the country, the 1.6Mt/yr Akhangarancement cement plant, that reported a criminal investigation and financial audit following various misdemeanours in April 2014.

Also in April 2014 the Almalyk Mining-Metallurgical Combine (AMMC) proposed building a 1.5Mt/yr cement plant in the south of the country and then commissioning of a white cement plant in the central Jizzakh Province. Both the Eurocement and AMMC projects show that organisations are investing in the local market of the region's most populous country at around 30m.

Turkmenistan

In neighbouring Turkmenistan the TurkmenCement Production Association has issued a tender this week for the construction of a 1Mt/yr clinker plant in the central-south of the country in the Baharly District of the Akhal Region. If realised, the new plant will raise Turkemistan's cement production capacity to 4Mt/yr. Currently the country has three state-operated plants. The most recent, the 1.4Mt/yr Garlyk plant, was commissioned in February 2013.

Kazakhstan

An investor has stepped forward to finance the completion of the delayed Khantau cement plant in Zhambyl region in southern Kazakhstan. The 0.5Mt/yr plant was originally started in 2007 before being mothballed part-way through construction.

The reignition of this project follows a couple of stories from Kazakhstan including a report on testing at the HeidelbergCement Caspi cement plant in Mangistau region and the start of operation on Line 5 of Steppe Cement's Karaganda Cement. Kazakhstan has more western international cement producers, unlike the generally state-run companies in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. HeidelbergCement will join plants run by Italcementi and Vicat.

Azerbaijan

Finally, on the other side of the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijani local media has reported that cement production for the first half of 2014 has risen by 40% year-on-year to 1.1Mt. Following the opening of the Gazakh cement plant in mid-2013 the country has three cement plants with a combined cement production capacity of nearly 5Mt/yr.

Our spotlight is on Uzbekistan this week following an update on the Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Combine's (AMMC) plans to build a new cement plant in the south of the country. The news emerged in the wake of the completion of the AMMC's cement grinding plant, in the Jizzakh region, which was finished in late March 2014. Meanwhile, Eurocement announced that its subsidiary in Uzbekistan, the Akhangarancement plant, had received a limestone and marl quarrying licence.

Previous to the new AMMC grinding plant, Uzbekistan had five cement plants with a total cement production capacity of nearly 6Mt/yr. Only one of these was a dry production process plant, the 2.5Mt/yr Krzylkumcement plant, in the south-western Bukhara province. Cement consumption in the country was estimated to be around the same, also at 6Mt/yr.

Back in 2011 the government of Uzbekistan planned to invest US$6.94bn to develop infrastructure, transport and communication construction from 2011 - 2015. This investment has now been followed up with a direct financial injection into the cement industry.

In late February 2014, local building materials company JSC Uzbuildmaterials announced government plans to invest US$49.1m into the local cement industry. The programme includes nine projects for the three largest cement plants in the country: the Kyzylkumcement plant, the Ahangarancement plant and the Bekabadcement plant. Kyzylkumcement will receive the majority of the investment, US$39.6m to spend over three years on a new cement mill, upgrades to the clinker production lines and construction of a 220/10kV main substation. Ahangarantcement and Bekabadcement will replace 'out-dated' equipment and will upgrade their production lines.

Mineral-rich Uzbekistan is relatively undeveloped but this is changing. Its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was reported to be US$51bn in 2012 by the World Bank, having seen steady growth since 2002, and its population was just over 30m in 2013. Its cement consumption is 300kg/capita, a figure below the global average (estimated at 536kg/capita in a forthcoming Global Cement Magazine report on 'Cement consumption versus Gross Domestic Product'). This places Uzbekistan in a favourable position for future development on a graph of GDP per capita against cement consumption per capita. The latest investment programme suggests that the Uzbek government are hoping that this is the case.