Displaying items by tag: demand

India: Ratings agency Crisil has forecast all-Indian cement consumption growth of 11% year-on-year to 440Mt during the current financial year, which ends on 31 March 2024. Crisil attributed this to a 51% year-on-year rise in infrastructure spending, to US$6.75bn throughout the year. Press Trust of India News has reported that infrastructure projects currently account for 30% of all cement consumption.

Mexico: Holcim Mexico says that its supply of cement to the government’s Tren Maya railway project is 170,000t/month. This corresponds to 50 – 60% of its total production volumes. Local press has reported that construction of the 1500km-long Tren Maya railway will consume 1Mm³ of concrete. Holcim supplied its cement for Sections 1 – 3 of the line between 2020 and 2022. It is currently supplying Section 5, which is 50% complete. The cement comes from the company’s Orizaba, Veracruz, plant; its Macuspana, Tabasco, plant and its Mérida, Yucatán, plant.

Holcim Mexico’s infrastructure development manager Fernando Roldan said "Our participation has been a challenge, but the relationship we have with the suppliers and with the construction companies in charge of the railway has allowed us to meet the requirements."

Peru: The Central Reserve Bank of Peru expects national cement consumption to fall by 3.7% in 2023. The Gestión newspaper has reported that demand declined month-on-month over seven successive months up to August 2023. It fell by a double-digit figure year-on-year in the first half of 2023. In August 2023, imports of cement declined by 95% month-on-month, to 2000t from 38,000t.

Peruvian Chamber of Construction executive director Guido Valdivia said "The first factor to consider is El Niño. If it starts in November 2023, it will affect construction output in 2023; if it is postponed to 2024, we expect a drop of only 3.3% in 2023.″ The Peruvian Property Developers’ Association (ASEI) forecast a 4% drop in construction output in 2023, followed by growth of 3.2% in 2024.

Grupo Gloria’s vice president, cement, concrete and lime, Luis Díaz told investors that the gap between Peruvian cement production and consumption will close ‘substantially’ during the remaining months of 2023, due to raised demand from infrastructure projects.

Ireland: CRH recorded US$16.6m in consolidated sales during the first half of 2023, up by 8% year-on-year from first-half 2022 levels. Its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) totalled US$2.5bn, up by 14%. Throughout the half, CRH invested US$600m in acquisitions, and maintained a ‘robust’ pipeline of further opportunities. In its Americas business, cement sales were ‘robust.’ There, volumes rose by 5%, and prices rose by 17%, despite adverse weather in Texas and the Western US. Meanwhile, price rises successfully offset local volume declines in Europe, but failed to do so in the Philippines. CRH said that infrastructure projects in the Philippines are experiencing delays. In Ukraine, it said that construction activity increased in the first half of 2023, despite the continuing Russian invasion.

CEO Albert Manifold said "I am pleased to report a strong first half performance, reflecting the continued delivery of our differentiated strategy, further commercial progress across our businesses and good contributions from acquisitions. The strength of our balance sheet, together with our relentless focus on disciplined capital allocation, will enable us to invest in future growth and value creation opportunities for our business."

The Hungarian government recently enacted Emergency Decree 320/2023, taxing all CO₂ emissions from the country’s 40 or so largest industrial enterprises. The government used emergency powers to set up a new taxation scheme, which undercuts existing free allowances under the EU emissions trading scheme (ETS). The scheme additionally penalises the trade in ETS credits. Cement producers announced that the new regulations will make it impossible for them to keep operating.¹

With regard to Hungary’s six active cement plants, the scheme comprises:

1 – A Euro20/t tax on CO₂ emissions, effective retroactively from 1 January 2023, payable by any large enterprise that uses EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) free allowances to cover the majority of its CO₂ emissions. Plants that decrease their production, or that carry on non-CO₂-emitting activities at over 10% of their operations, will pay a higher rate of Euro40/t of CO₂.

2 – A 10% transaction fee for the sale of free allocations under the EU ETS, payable to the Hungarian Climate Protection Authority.

Less than three years ahead of full implementation of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), the Hungarian government has seemingly moved unilaterally against cement production – this in a country surrounded by seven other cement-producing countries. Multiple foreign cement producers connected to the major market of Budapest by rail, river and road will be watching developments with interest. These include CRH, which, besides two smaller plants inside Hungary, operates the 800,000t/yr Cementáreň Turňa nad Bodvou plant, immediately over the border in Slovakia.

This comes at a time when the domestic cement industry is facing historically high costs and low demand, with a 30% year-on-year decline in construction activity in July 2023, following double-digit inflation throughout 2022 and the first half of 2023.

Catastrophising may be a common symptom of environmental regulation in industry associations, but one can understand on this occasion. The Hungarian cement and lime industry association, CeMBeton, backed its members’ gloomy announcement about their future with an estimate for extra annual taxes of ‘several billion forints’ (1bn forint = US$2.84m), in a statement following the decree. Assuming annual CO₂ emissions of 565kg/t across its 5.4Mt/yr cement capacity, the sector might expect to pay US$61m/yr in CO₂ rates alone.^{2, 3} According to analyst ClearBlue, the government will raise additional tax revenues worth US$278m/yr across all of the 40 aforementioned heavy emitters in Hungary.⁴

It may seem surprising that CeMBeton did not even draw up a projected tax bill during consultations over the new tax scheme – but, in fact, no such consultations took place. In its most recent statement, the association said “We do not know the government’s intentions.” Outside of official releases, Hungary’s cement producers have not always been so reserved about the government’s perceived aim.

Global Cement reported in April 2023 that the Hungarian government was allegedly interfering in the cement sector to make producers sell up – as per accusations by an anonymous industry executive.⁵ There is arguably a course of action on the government’s part which, more or less, appears consistent with this aim:

October 2020 – The Hungarian Competition Authority (GVH) starts competition supervision proceedings against CRH, Duna-Dráva Cement and Lafarge Cement Magyarország.

July 2021 – Emergency Decree 2021/404 imposes a 90% tax on producers’ ‘excess’ profits, based on threshold cement sales revenues of Euro56/t. Additionally, producers must report their exports.

September 2021 – GVH finds insufficient evidence to support the initiation of competition supervisory proceedings in the cement industry.

January 2023 – (Retroactive) entry into force of CO₂ emissions tax.

May 2023 – The government of Hungary reportedly initiates negotiations to acquire Duna Dráva Cement and Holcim Magyarország, according to the Hungarian builders’ association, National Professional Association of Construction Contractors (ÉVOSZ). Duna Dráva Cement owners Heidelberg Materials and Schwenk Zement state that they have entered into no such negotiations, while Holcim declines to comment.

July 2023 – The Act on Hungarian Architecture lets the government dictate producers' volumes and prices and require them to supply cement to National Building Materials Stores (a proposed state-owned construction materials retail monopoly).⁶ Additionally, the government gains a right of first refusal over the divestment of any asset by the cement industry’s foreign owners.

20 July 2023 – The government enacts Emergency Decree 320/2023. ETS transaction fees enter into force.

The government can now expect a legal challenge to its latest move. CeMBeton’s first ally may be the font of all emissions legislation – the EU itself. Within the EU ETS framework, tax rates are down to member states to determine. However, the introduction of a transaction fee may constitute an illegal restriction to free allowances, OPIS News has reported. The association has also indicated its readiness to mount a constitutional challenge, specifically with regard to the legislative retrofit involved in the CO₂ emissions tax. The Fundamental Law of Hungary does not generally permit legislation to apply retroactively, though how courts will balance this consideration against the rights of the government is untested.

The government amended the constitution to provide for new emergency powers, and subsequently adopted them in May 2022, in response to the ‘state of danger’ created by Russia’s war in Ukraine – though its actions on the international stage suggest careful neutrality, if not ambivalence. At home, the war has brought a consolidation of the government’s control over various areas of life, including the economy, according to Human Rights Watch.⁷

Climate protestors around the world might be glad to see governments wield emergency powers against their own heavy industries. In Hungary, however, the wider sustainability goals are not yet clear with regard to a policy that seems, at least partly, politically motivated.

References

1. CeMBeton, Sajtónyilatkozat, 21 August 2023, https://www.cembeton.hu/hirlevel/2023-08-21/202308-mozgalmas-osz-ele-nezunk/116/sajtonyilatkozat/668

2. Heidelberg Materials, ‘Energy and climate protection,’ 2022, https://www.heidelbergmaterials.com/en/energy-and-climate-protection

3. Global Cement, Global Cement Directory 2023, https://www.globalcement.com/directory

4. OPIS News, ‘Hungary's New Carbon Tax Unlikely to Set EU Precedent, Say Analysts,’ 16 August 2023

5. Global Cement, 'Update on Hungary,' April 2023, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/15572-update-on-hungary-april-2023#:~:text=Heidelberg%20Materials'%20subsidiary%20Duna%2DDr%C3%A1va,the%20country's%20active%20national%20capacity.

6. Daily News Hungary, ‘Hungarian government’s new nationalising plan could violate EU law,’ 27 February 2023, https://dailynewshungary.com/hungarian-govts-new-nationalizing-plan-could-violate-eu-law/

7. Human Rights Watch, ‘Hungary’s New 'State of Danger',’ 8 June 2022, https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/06/08/hungarys-new-state-danger

Australia: Boral’s sales were US$2.28bn in the 2023 financial year, which ended on 30 June 2023. This corresponds to a 38% year-on-year rise from the previous first half. The group’s net profit dropped by 1.3% to US$96.6m. It noted a rise in its costs of energy, labour and transport, which it expects to continue up to the end of June 2024, and possibly on throughout the second half of 2024.

The Sydney Morning Herald newspaper has reported that Australian residential construction activity dropped by 7.7% month-on-month in June 2023. Boral CEO Vik Bansal said that the company expects residential, commercial and civil construction to return to growth in the 2024 financial year.

Japan: Sumitomo Osaka Cement says that it expects sales to rise by 14% year-on-year to US$761m during the first half of the 2024 financial year. Nikkei Financial Summary News has reported that the producer expects a drop in its cement volumes, offset by price hikes. Currency effects will also impact its result. Meanwhile, coal prices remained lower than expected. The company expects to record a net profit of US$26.6m, compared to a loss of US$20.4m in the first half of the 2023 financial year. It previously forecast a US$13.3m loss.

Sumitomo Osaka Cement recorded US$52.8m in sales in the first quarter of the 2024 financial year (1 April - 30 June 2023). This corresponds to year-on-year growth of 16%. Nonetheless, it made a net loss of US$7.6m.

Throughout the first quarter of the 2024 financial year, Japanese cement despatches fell by 15% to 10.1Mt. Exports declined most sharply, by 43%, to 1.51Mt.

Morocco: Members of the Professional Association of Cement Producers (APC) delivered a total of 6.98Mt of cement during the first seven months of 2023. This corresponds to a year-on-year rise of 2.1%, compared with seven-month 2022 levels. Agence Marocaine de Presse News has reported that ready-mix concrete plants consumed 4.29Mt (61%), and precast concrete plants 1.37Mt (20%), of cement deliveries. Producers despatched 367,000t (5.3%) of cement to infrastructure construction sites, and 271,000t (3.9%) to other building sites.

US: The United States Geological Survey has reported that the US consumed 40.5Mt-worth of cement shipments in the first five months of 2023. This corresponds to a 4.3% year-on-year fall from five-month 2022 volumes of 41.5Mt. Blended cement, primarily Type IL Portland limestone cement (PLC), accounted for 37% of shipments, compared to 16% in the corresponding period of 2022. Total demand rose by 4.3% year-on-year and by 19% month-on-month to 10.2Mt in May 2023. Imports of cement and clinker totalled 10.5Mt. The leading source of imported cement and clinker were Türkiye, which supplied 3.34Mt (32%), Canada, which supplied 1.58Mt (15%), and Vietnam, which supplied 1.3Mt (13%).

US production of clinker dropped by 2.1% to 29.5Mt in the first five months of 2023, from 30.1Mt a year earlier.

South Africa: PPC has published its Integrated Report for its 2023 financial year, which ended on 31 March 2023. The producer recorded revenues of US$559m, up by 0.2% year-on-year from US$557m in the 2022 financial year. Its cost of sales declined by 0.1% to US$471m from US$472m. As a result, PPC's loss widened by a factor of more than seven, to US$32.5m from US$4.36m.

PPC's cement volumes fell by 5.8% in South Africa and Botswana, where its cement prices rose by 8%. The company noted sustained 'good demand' for cement in coastal South Africa. It said that demand was 'robust' in Zimbabwe, however its local sales volumes fell by 16% on account of an extended kiln shutdown at one of its cement plants during the half. In Rwanda, PPC's subsidiary CIMERWA increased its cement volumes by 1%.