Displaying items by tag: demand

India: The cement industry is expected to grow at 6-7% in the current 2017-2018 fiscal year, which runs from 1 April 2017 to 31 March 2018, according to HeidelbergCement India. The company said that, while infrastructure (including a focus on concrete roads), affordable housing programmes and the prospect of a normal monsoon augur well for the industry, oversupply may restrict the ability to pass on any input cost increases.

Russia: Sibirsky Cement expects that demand for cement in Siberia will fall by 8 – 10% to 4.7 - 4.8Mt in 2017. The cement producer said that its output decreased by 22% to 2.15Mt from its Kemerovo Region-based Topkinsky Cement, by 3% to 0.75Mt from its Krasnoyarsky Cement plant and by 10% to 0.27Mt from its Timlyuisky cement plant, according to the Prime Tass news agency. Overall its cement production fell by 17% year-on-year to 3.17Mt in 2016. It has blamed falling production on an overall decline in Russia’s cement market.

A few days ago my family faced a financial crisis caused by demonetisation. The family piggy bank holds a number of one-pound sterling coins. However, the Bank of England is set to introduce a new 12-sided one-pound coin in March 2017 and withdraw the old type circular coin by the end of October 2017. Unfortunately the piggy bank in question is of the variety that can only be opened by smashing it. There followed various attempts to extract the coins via the narrow opening.

Now just imagine if a country of over 1.25bn inhabitants and a gross domestic product of US$8.7tr faced a similar problem. Well, you don’t have to imagine it because India’s demonetisation plan to remove 500 and 1000 rupee banknotes from circulation started in November 2016. Some commentators reckoned that the banknotes represented nearly 85% of its currency by value. Indian citizens then had until the end of December 2016 to take the old bank notes to a bank to have them exchanged. The government has said that the plan was conceived to cut corruption, increase tax revenue and reduce cash hoarding. However, critics have attacked the policy for unduly penalising the poorest members of society as they struggle to move from using cash to electronic methods.

That’s the background. Global Cement is interested in cement markets. Although its early days yet some reactions and data are starting to emerge. Ambuja Cement launched a marketing campaign in December 2016 to help its customers cope with a cashless business environment. The initiative has included working with a bank to operate a helpline assisting people in opening bank accounts as well as putting out the message in various media including sending one million text messages. Clearly, at least one of India’s major cement producers is taking the problems caused by demonetisation seriously.

Alongside this, various reports have trickled out since November 2016 trying to work out the effects of the financial transition on the cement industry. Firstly, the India Cements reported in mid-November 2016 in a financial report that demonetisation had not impacted its cement sales. Deutsche Bank Markets Research then predicted that the policy would reduce cement demand by up to 20% for the last few months of 2016 and then reduce growth by 3% in the first three months of 2017. Its analysts reckoned that the residential sector would suffer the most and that although infrastructure spending might offset this a little, reduced taxation from a punctured property market would also adversely affect infrastructure funding. A report in the Hindu newspaper in early December 2016 feared that cement demand might be reduced by up to 50% in November 2016. It also raised the concerns of the managing director of Shiva Cement who said that contractors were finding it difficult to buy raw materials and pay wages.

Now in early January 2017 the India Ratings and Research credit ratings agency released a research note predicting that cement production growth was likely to fall to 4% for the 2017 financial year ending on 31 March 2017 from a previous estimate of 6%. It reported that production growth rose by only 0.5% year-on-year in November 2016 following a growth rate of 4.3% from April to November 2016 and rates of 5.5% and 6.2% in September and November 2016 respectively. It added that the housing sector constitutes around 65% of cement demand and that this share is likely to fall.

After a strong start to the year the Indian cement industry was looking forward to a growth rate above 5% in its 2016 - 2017 financial year. The figures aren’t out yet and the year isn’t finished but it is looking likely that demonetisation, a direct government policy, has smashed demand for cement in India in the short term.

Global Cement would be interested to hear from any readers in India for their comments on demonetisation and its effect on the cement industry – This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

India: The India Ratings and Research credit ratings agency has said that demonetisation of the economy is likely to reduce growth in the cement industry by 2% to 4% in the 2016 – 2017 financial year that ends on 31 March 2017. Previously it had predicted growth of up to 6% in this period. The agency reported that cement production grew by 0.5% in November 2016 following rates of 5.5% and 6.2% in September and November 2016 respectively. It added that all India volumes fell by up to 25% in November and December 2016. The agency expects demand for cement from the housing sector will to decline further from its current contribution of 65% of all demand.

Vietnam: Nguyen Quang Cung, chairman of the Vietnam Cement Association, has predicted that the country will face an oversupply of nearly 50Mt in 2020. The local industry’s cement production capacity was nearly 88Mt/yr in 2016. It is expected to reach 108Mt/yr in 2018 and up to 130Mt/yr in 2020, according to comments made by the association to the Saigon Times. Domestic demand is estimated to be 82Mt in 2020 thereby creating the shortfall. The association is also lobbying for a two-year delay in regulation changes made in 2016 that are expected to make exporting cement more expensive for producers.

India: Demonetisation of high value Indian rupee currency notes reduced cement demand by 45 – 50% in November 2016. Demand for cement fell across regions with the central region including Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh suffering the least, according to the Hindu newspaper. The decline has hit the industry when it was expecting an increase in demand stimulated by infrastructure development following the monsoon season.

A slowdown in real estate activity has particularly affected the cement industry as the majority of cement in the country is used by the realty sector. RP Gupta, chairman and managing director of Shiva Cement, said that contractors are finding it difficult to make cash payments for buying raw materials such as sand, bricks and stones as well as paying wages. Cement companies are reportedly trying to help dealers install bank or credit card payment machines to reduce cash-based transactions.

Zimbabwe: Sino Zimbabwe Cement Company may cut shifts in response to poor local demand for cement. Managing director Wang Yong told the Business Chronicle that local demand for cement has fallen by 25% due to a poor construction market. The cement producer is considering reducing its current pattern of three shifts to just one day shift.

Despite market concerns, the company has spent US$1m towards building storage space for raw materials and transport infrastructure improvements. In 2015 it completed a US$5m upgrade to double its production capacity to 0.4Mt/yr.

India: The credit ratings agency ICRA has predicted that cement demand is likely to increase by 6% year-on-year in the 2016 – 2017 financial year from 5% in the previous period due to a government focus on developing infrastructure and better weather. The growth in demand is also likely to lead to higher prices, especially in the northern and eastern states. Infrastructure development is expected to arise from road and house building.

"With the pace of new capacity addition slowing down, we expect capacity utilisation and the supply-demand scenario to show an improvement, especially in the 2017 – 2018 fiscal year, which should support cement prices and profitability indicators for cement manufacturers," said ICRA Ratings’ Senior Vice-President Sabyasachi Majumdar.

ICRA report that growth in demand for cement slowed to 3.4% in April and May 2016 from 9 – 13.5% in January to March 2016. It attributed this to weak rural demand, especially in Maharashtra, and a slowdown in infrastructure development partly due to a drought. However, demand grew faster in north and east India.

Russia: Filaret Galchev, the owner of Eurocement, expects that demand for cement in Russia will fall by 8% - 10% in 2016 after falling 12% in 2015. The cement producer will sell about 20Mt of cement in Russia and about 3.5Mt in other regions including Uzbekistan and Ukraine in 2016. He added that average production costs at the group will produce cement at around US$25/t.

In an interview with Rossiya 24 television reported upon by Interfax, Galchev also described Eurocement’s sale of its 6.1% stake in LafargeHolcim in February 2016 as ‘unexpected’. The Russian cement producer sold its share in LafargeHolcim after they lost nearly half of their value in six months.

"No, I did not expect it. We analysed the situation for a long time, but that is the decision that was made," said Galchev. He added that he had no issues with Sberbank, the Russian bank that restructured Eurocement’s debt after the sale of the shares in LafargeHolcim.

Originally Eurocement was a shareholder in Holcim and it received a stake in LafargeHolcim after that company was formed in a merger. The stake was subsequently transferred to Sberbank of Russia in January 2016 after the shares, which Galchev had acquired with financing from Bank of America, lost over 40% of their value in half a year. At the beginning of February 2016, Sberbank sold the 6.12% LafargeHolcim stake to investors from the UK, Switzerland, the US and other countries.

Cameroon: Cameroon's demand for cement has risen dramatically despite the increasing volume of imports and local production, according to sources at the Ministry of Economy and Planning. According to the ministry, Cameroon's cement demand grows by 8%/yr and the country currently has a deficit of 2.5 – 3Mt. In 2014, local cement production was estimated at 1.3Mt and imports were around 1.2Mt.

Despite the government's bid to ban imports to boost domestic production, foreign producers continue to have significant market share in the country, importing to almost 1.3Mt in 2014 compared with 561,190t of cement in 2011. Cameroon's cement production is presently estimated at 3.6Mt/yr.