
Displaying items by tag: demand
Spanish ‘uncertainty and concern’ remain
11 October 2018Spain: Demand for cement in Spain in the first half of 2018 was 8% higher than in the first half of 2017, according to the national cement association Oficemen. The rate of growth was down, however. The country recorded an 11% year-on-year increase in demand between the first half of 2016 and the first half of 2017. Oficemen had expected demand to pick up by 12% for the whole of 2018 but now expects an increase of 7% instead. If realised, this would mean sales of around 13.3Mt for 2018.
“At the beginning of the year, the Department of Studies of Oficemen expected to close 2018 with a 12% increase in domestic demand. Now, with public works almost paralysed, we are talking about lowering our forecasts by 5 percentage points,” explained the president of Oficemen, Jesús Ortiz. “The weak recovery of the construction that began in Spain in 2017 depends on the building sector. Although it is growing at a good pace, it does so from absolute values that are still very low.” It is estimated that 2018 will close with around 100,000 new homes started, a figure that, while ignoring the years of the construction boom, represents less than half of the average of the homes that were built in Spain in the period 1970-1995.
“Public investment in Spain remains at 63% of the average investment of Germany, the UK, France and Italy, which takes us dangerously away from our neighbours. There is a consequent loss of competitiveness for our country, especially in the most exposed sectors: exports, tourism, treatment and prevention of environmental risks, driver safety, and so on,“ added Ortiz.
Cement exports were also down year-on-year, for the 13th month in a row. Ortiz primarily blamed this on the devaluation of the Turkish Lira, which has helped Turkish cement exports advance their competitiveness compared to Spain. He also highlighted rising electricity costs, which are expected to be 20% higher at the end of 2018 than at the start. This will make electricity 28% more expensive than for German cement producers, according to Ortiz. “What has recovered in the domestic market in these two years, is being lost abroad, with production that remains stagnant at 20Mt since 2013, a figure that accounts for half of the installed capacity of our factories. Therefore, the uncertainty and concern for our industry is maintained,” concluded Ortiz.
Gabon: Ciments de l’Afrique (CIMAF) Gabon’s sales have grown due to a ‘strong’ demand for cement following a ban of imports since July 2017. Its turnover grew by 37% year-on-year to US$22.8m in first half of 2018 from US$16.7m in the same period in 2017, according to Direct Infos Gabon. Its sales of cement rose by 42% to 0.18Mt from 0.13Mt. Its production also rose by 38% to 0.18Mt from 0.13Mt. Previously, the cement producer said it was planning to start a new production line at its Cimgabon integrated plant by November 2018.
India: Credit rating agency ICRA has said that the demand for cement in India is likely to grow by around 6% in the current financial year, which ends on 31 March 2019. In its latest report on the sector, it said this would be due to a pick-up in the affordable and rural housing segment and infrastructure, primarily in road and irrigation projects.
ACC forecasts cement demand to grow by 7% in 2018
18 June 2018India: ACC forecasts that demand for cement will grow by up to 7% in 2018. However, intense competition and insufficient consumption will lead to excess capacity it added, according to the Press Trust of India. Demand is expected to benefit from government-based infrastructure projects, rural development and affordable housing schemes.
Around 66% of ACC’s cement demand came from the housing sector, followed by infrastructure with 18% and 16% from the commercial sector. The country has a total cement production capacity of 465Mt/yr but it is only producing 305Mt/yr, giving it an utilisation rate of 66%. Cement plants in the south of the country are pulling the rate down compared to northern, central and eastern regions. Excess capacity is expected to continue until 2019, with the increased outlays on housing, infrastructure development and agricultural sector initiatives.
Cameroon: The Ministry of Finance forecasts that demand for cement will rise by 10% due to various infrastructure projects. The government department also indicated that some cement producers are increasing their production capacity, according to Business in Cameroon.
Cimencam, a subsidiary of LafargeHolcim, is planning to build a 0.5Mt/yr grinding plant at Nomayos in Yaoundé. It is expected to be complete in 2019. Dangote Cement plans to build a 1.5Mt/yr plant in Yaoundé and Ciments de l'Afrique (CIMAF) is upgrading its plant Douala to 1.5Mt/yr from 0.5Mt/yr. The CIMAF project is scheduled for completion also in 2019. Following commissioning of all the new projects, the market share of each cement producer is expected to be Dangote Cement with 45%, Cimencam with 30%, CIMAF with 22% and Medcem with 3%.
Housing and infrastructure spending to speed up Indian cement demand in 2018 - 2019
28 February 2018India: The credit agency ICRA forecasts that cement demand will grow by 4.5% in the 2018 – 2019 financial year due to growth in the housing sector and higher infrastructure spending. Improved rural incomes, higher rural credit and increased allocation for rural, agriculture and allied sectors are also likely to increase the demand for rural housing, according to the Press Trust of India.
Indian cement production rose by 2.7% to 217Mt in the nine months from April to December 2017 from 211Mt in the previous year. However, the first three months of this period, from April to June 2017, saw production drop due to local issues across the country such as a sand shortage, the implementation of Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) Act and a drought. The following quarter then saw a fall in production due to the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), continued sand shortages and inclement weather. ICRA predicts that cement demand will grow by 3% for the remainder of the 2017 – 2018 financial year due to a boost in production in December 2017.
PPC says that South African cement demand fell by 4% in 2017
05 February 2018South Africa: PPC estimates that local cement demand fell by 3 – 4% in 2017 due to a lack of large infrastructure projects. In an operating update for the nine months to 31 December 2017 it reported that its cement sales volumes fell by 1 – 2% year-on-year, although it had increased its prices. It increased its exports by 23%. The cement producer also reported that its Slurry Kiln 9 project was 90% complete, with commissioning scheduled for the second quarter of 2018.
Elsewhere in Africa, PPC’s sales volumes rose by 20 – 30% in Rwanda due to a rise in bulk cement sales and higher exports. In Zimbabwe sales volumes grew by 30 – 40% supported by retail sales.
Mozambique: The African Elephant cement grinding plant is operating at a third of its production capacity due to low demand. The Chinese-owned plant near Pemba, Cabo Delgado in the north of the country is producing around 300t/day despite the plant’s production capacity of 1000t/day, according to sources quoted by the Mozambique News Agency. The plant’s manager expects demand to pickup once investment in the gas industry increase. The company has suffered from imports from Tanzania.
Closing the demand gap in India
04 October 2017It’s been a pessimistic month for the Indian cement industry with Ministry of Commerce & Industry data showing that cement production has fallen year-on-year every month since December 2016. This was followed by the Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA) saying that the industry was sitting on 100Mt/yr of excess production capacity. Now, the credit ratings agency ICRA has followed the data and downgraded its forecast for cement demand growth to not more than 4% for the 2017 - 2018 financial year.
Graph 1: Annual cement production in India. Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry.
Graph 2: Monthly cement production growth rate year-on-year in India: Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry.
Graph 1 shows a production peak in the 2015 - 2016 financial year before falling monthly production broke the trend in the 2016 - 2017 period. Graph 2 pinpoints the month it started to go wrong, November 2016, when the government introduced its demonetisation policy. Production growth went negative the following month in December 2017 and it hasn’t managed to right itself since then and grow. It’s convenient to blame the government for the slump in production but it troughed in February 2017 before taking a lower level of decline since then.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) annual report in August 2017 suggests that the policy failed in its principal purpose of reducing the kind of corruption that a cash heavy economy can hide such as tax avoidance. People reportedly managed to find ways to bypass the bank deposit limit and may have successfully laundered large amounts of cash without being caught. However, as commentators like the Financial Times have pointed out, the longer term implications of forcing the economy towards digital payments and increasing the tax base could yet be beneficial overall.
Graph 3: Cement production capacity utilisation rates in India. Source: UltraTech Cement.
Moving on, the CMA has blamed production overcapacity for the current mess and Graph 3 shows the problem starkly. If anything the CMA appears to have downplayed the over capacity crisis facing India, as UltraTech Cement’s figures (using data from the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion) show an overcapacity of 155Mt in the 2016 – 2017 year and this will grow to a forecast 157Mt in the next financial year, even though the utilisation rate is expected to rise slightly. UltraTech Cement’s estimates don’t see the utilisation rate topping 70% until the 2020 – 2021 financial year. Analysts quoted in the Mint business newspaper concur, although they reckoned it would the rate would bounce sooner, in 2019 - 2020. Last month when the CMA moaned about the industry's excess capacity it pinned its hopes on infrastructure schemes like the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train. This prompted an official at JK Cements to say that he didn't think that one train line was going to make much of a difference.
This is one reason why ICRA’s and the other credit agencies’ growth rate forecasts for cement demand are important, because they indicate how fast India might be able to close the gap between production capcity and demand. Unfortunately demonetisation scuppered ICRA’s growth prediciton for 2016 – 2017. It forecast a rate of 6% but it actually fell by 1.2%! So downgrading its forecast for 2017 – 2018, with fears of weather and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the second half of the year, is ominious. Major cement producers such as Ultratech Cement and Ambuja Cement have based their road to recovery in their latest investor presentations on a 6% growth rate or higher. Pitch it lower and the gap doesn’t close. Here’s hoping for a brisk second half.
Bolivian cement demand weakening so far in 2017
02 August 2017Bolivia: Coboce, Itacamba Cemento, Soboce and Fancesa have all reported weakened demand for cement in the first half of 2017. Coboce’s sales growth has slowed year-on-year to 5% due to a reduced local government spending on infrastructure projects and poor weather, according to the El Deber newspaper. Despite this the cement producer expects sale to grow by 6 – 8% as a whole for 2017. Sales of the Camba cement brand produced by Itacamba Cemento have increased and this brand now holds 30% of all sales in Santa Cruz. Fancesa has seen a sharp contraction of its market share in Santa Cruz to 35% from 57%, although this now appears to have stabilised. The company is now targeting Cochabamba and Potosi.