Displaying items by tag: lobbying

The mood music for this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan has been poor. Despite this though the decarbonisation prospects for the cement sector are looking rosier than other industries.

First, the negatives. People are starting to question whether the COPs are fit for purpose. Donald Trump’s election as President-Elect in the US before the event started pretty much set the tone given that he intends to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement. Again. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev described his country’s natural gas resources as a “gift from God” following reports that, once again, COP national delegates had been caught promoting fossil fuel deals. France and Argentina also withdrew their lead negotiators for differing political reasons. Meanwhile, there has been increasing lobbying against carbon capture from the environmental sector. In short the view is growing that carbon capture is a delaying tactic by fossil fuel companies rather than a viable solution. This poses a threat to the cement sector because its current net zero roadmaps require carbon capture.

The World Cement Association’s CEO Ian Riley asked in a statement whether there might be “...a shift toward negotiations driven by the major emitters - China, the US, India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.” However he observed that none of these countries yet seem ready to lead on the climate agenda globally.

Now, the positives. Cement CO₂ sector emissions may have continued to fall in 2023. The Global Carbon Project published its Global Carbon Budget 2024 in mid-November 2024. It predicts that global fossil CO₂ emissions will rise by 0.8% year-on-year in 2024 with emissions from coal, oil and gas still mounting. However, emissions from cement producers are expected to fall by 0.8%. This trend started in 2022. It appears to be due to declines in China, the US and the EU but, notably, not in India. It’s worth commenting here that this decline may be principally down to the parlous state of the real estate market in China, but there is also a lot of decarbonisation work happening. We’ll take a win where we can.

Next, the Global Cement and Concrete Association’s two big announcements at COP29 have been the publication of its Cement Industry Net Zero Progress Report 2024/25 and the launch of international definitions for low carbon cement and concrete. The progress report proffers a nifty update on how well it’s going. Short version: 23% reduction in emissions intensity since 1990; lots going on; plenty more to do.

One of those issues that require attention is low-carbon procurement. Hence those international definitions. This may seem like an abjectly boring topic but never underestimate the power of standards upon building materials. This should help support governments, policy makers and the private sector to set low carbon procurement rules. Since governments are among the biggest buyers of building materials worldwide, both directly and indirectly, this is intended to start speeding up decarbonisation by driving demand for existing lower carbon cement and concrete products. Whether this is the tool that cracks the global adoption of low carbon building materials remains to be seen. Yet the long lead time it took the Portland Cement Association (PCA) in the US, for example, to promote the use of Portland Limestone Cement is both instructive and inspirational. It can be done and it can deliver results.

COP29 has been described as the ‘finance COP’ because the representatives are hoping to set a new global climate finance target. This target, or new collective quantified goal (NCQG), is seen as one of the summit's main outcomes. It is intended to replace the existing US$100bn goal that is due to expire in 2025. However, the question of how much each country pays has predictably caused disagreements between developed, developing and those countries in between. All of this is well above the ‘paygrade’ of the cement sector but is crucial to what happens next, because it’s going to get expensive. Establishing regional carbon capture infrastructure requires serious funding. Time will tell whether COP29 can actually further this aim. The arguing continues.

Azerbaijan: The Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) has called on governments at the COP29 climate conference to support the decarbonisation of the cement industry. The association published its Net Zero Progress Report 2024/25 to coincide with the conference. The report details the ‘extensive decarbonisation work’ currently underway in the industry, including accelerating carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), switching to renewable energy sources, advancing the circular economy and reducing cement’s clinker factor. The sector expects to commission its first net zero cement plant, following a carbon capture upgrade to Heidelberg Materials’ Brevik plant in Norway, later in 2024.

GCCA president Fernando González said “Our industry is engaged in the most significant transformation in its history. To fully unlock our decarbonisation progress in this crucial Decade to Deliver, we urgently need effective policy support."

On 6 November 2024, Donald Trump appeared before followers in Florida, US, to declare victory in the 47th US presidential election. A sea of red baseball caps reflected the promise of the former president, now once again president-elect, to Make America Great Again. What Trump’s triumph means for the cement industry is not so straightforward. One lesson of President Trump’s 2017 – 2021 tenure as 45th president is that a Trump presidency comes with winners and losers.

Alongside the international heads of state posting their congratulations to Trump via social media was the Portland Cement Association (PCA), which represents US cement producers. In a post to LinkedIn, it took the chance to set out its priorities for the upcoming presidency, set to commence on 20 January 2025. These include collaborating on ‘market‐based initiatives’ to further reduce US cement’s CO₂ emissions, addressing ‘regulatory burdens’ that currently hinder the uptake of alternative fuels (AF) and ensuring favourable policies and funding for the use of alternative cements under federal transport programmes, which are up for renewal in 2026, as well as collaborating on carbon capture, utilisation and storage.

The post was suitably diplomatic for an organisation that will have to work with the incoming administration for the next four years. Reading the policy priorities against some of Trump’s campaign promises, however, they may be more pointed. As part of his plan to stimulate economic growth, Trump has proposed an unspecified reduction of the ‘regulatory burden’ of environmental standards. He also purports to want to replace renewables with increased use of fossil fuels – in direct opposition to the PCA’s goal to slash the US cement industry’s coal and petcoke reliance from 60% to 10% by 2050. The PCA’s stance is not merely ideological: its roadmap is founded on the legally-binding Paris Agreement on climate change mitigation. Trump, who considers the Paris Agreement a ‘disaster,’ has the stated aim of withdrawing the US from the treaty – for a second time!

The PCA included a positive note that “We can all agree that the ultimate goal of our industry and the government is to best serve the American people.” In case there were any doubt as to what it feels best serves those people, it concluded that it will work with all federal officials to help communities in the US to build ‘a more resilient, sustainable’ country.

Producers themselves, in the US and many other markets, had been finalising first-half or nine-month financial results when the Trump news broke. Now came half-anticipated strategy discussions – and a surprise: in market after market, trading in cement stocks opened on the up. Ireland-based CRH’s share price spiked by 15%, before settling on a rise of 6% day-on-day. Mexico-based Cemex’s rose by 7% and Switzerland-based Holcim’s by 5%. Investors, clearly, glimpsed opportunity in uncertainty for these US-involved operators.

Trump’s campaign successfully positioned him as the disruptive outsider, despite being the known (or, at least, known-to-be-unpredictable) quantity of the two candidates. His promise to Americans was increased affordability; to corporations, deregulation. Either way, he stands to overhaul the past four years’ policy on the economy. All of this may keep Wall Street high-ballers placing their bets on Cemex or CRH, or on Holcim North America after it eventually joins them on the New York Stock Exchange. The prospect of more money in homebuyers’ pockets is attractive, especially to allied sectors like property development, where Trump himself worked for over 40 years. The cement industry, meanwhile, will be taking a hard look at what the Trump proposition might mean for its market.

US Geological Survey (USGS) data tracks a favourable market trend under the present Biden Administration – to date – for a US cement industry that has also grown in production terms. Consumption was 120Mt in 2023, up by 14% over the three-year-period from 2020, while production was 91Mt, up by 4% over the same period. President Biden has signed into law two major pieces of legislation – the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act – with a combined value of US$1.94tn in additional public spending, to President Trump’s none. However, the Republican president previously proposed investing an additional US$200bn in 2018.

Trump voters may have perused the USGS’ most recent monthly cement figures, for July 2024, before casting their votes. The figures recorded a 5.2% year-on-year decline in total cement shipments in the year-to-date, to 58.6Mt. Both Eagle Materials and Italy-based Buzzi noted a recent lack of growth in US sales volumes in their latest financial results. Another possibly alarming trend for the industry – and anyone with a protectionist mindset - is the growth of imports, which rose from 14.8Mt in 2019 to 26Mt in 2023.

A defining feature of Trump’s original presidency, alongside Covid-19 lockdown, was his still-ongoing trade wars. We can expect Trump to resume his roll-out of new tariffs as soon as he can. This might include cement plant equipment produced in other jurisdictions, such as the EU. Compared to the roster of goods he previously denied entry to the US, however, 26Mt/yr of cement will be less easy to wrangle with in a country with a domestic shortfall of 29Mt/yr.

Whatever happens in politics, the US cement sector remains very strong, with historied local ownership and some of the most innovative plants in the industry globally. Global players continue to seek to maximise their US-facing presence, as evidenced by Brazil-based Votorantim Cimentos’ contemplation of an initial public offering (IPO) for Votorantim Cimentos North America, announced on 7 November 2024. For the industry, the day-to-day grind – and pyroprocess – goes on.

After all, Trump did not enact many of his more disruptive proposals, such as building a Mexican border wall, after his win in 2016. See Global Cement’s analysis of that proposal here. But even this record is an unreliable guide for what to expect in 2025 – 2029. Not only did Trump himself win the popular mandate this time around, but his allies also gained majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate, comprising the US legislature. This betokens a different pace and scale of possible changes.

In 10 weeks’ time, the US cement sector will be lobbying an entirely new regime. Now is the time for it to prepare whatever arguments will appeal to incoming lawmakers to allow it make the best of such opportunities as may be available.

Pakistan: The All-Pakistan Cement Distributors Association (APCDA) has asked the government to take heed of their strike call issued on 13 July 2024. The association is threatening action in response to new taxes and ordinances. These include a new sales tax, an increase in the 236-H income tax from 1% to 2.5% and the introduction of point-of-sale systems. APCDA said that the measures together made it ‘extremely difficult’ for cement dealers to operate. It called for exemptions or inclusion in a different presumptive tax regime in order to prevent industry collapse.

The News International newspaper has reported that association chair Chaudhry Sajid said that the new taxes will have to be passed on as additional costs for customers. He criticised the classification of cement as a fast-moving consumer good, as not all dealers are sufficiently ‘tech-savvy’ to adopt the requisite digital systems.

US: Representatives of the Portland Cement Association (PCA) and its members are meeting politicians at Congress to discuss cement sector decarbonisation on 12 and 13 June 2024. The PCA says that meetings will address permitting processes and new emission standards affecting the industry.

PCA president and CEO Mike Ireland said "There's a lot happening in Washington this year that directly impacts America's cement manufacturers, which is likely why we have a record turnout of cement company leadership in town for this fly-in. Our industry's top objective is to reach carbon neutrality. While our companies appreciate recent funding from the Department of Energy to assist in decarbonisation efforts, it's still challenging for them to make significant advancements due to a cumbersome permitting system and unrealistic Environmental Protection Agency regulations that could lead to eventual cuts in plant operations and staffing. As the infrastructure law is hitting its stride, the country needs more cement and concrete, not less. We're here to ask Congress to work with us to arrive at reasonable policies and standards that will allow manufacturers to continue to provide the resilient, sustainable building materials our country has come to expect."

India: The National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) has declined to stay insolvency proceedings against Jaiprakash Associates, following a challenge by its board. The board has been suspended since the NCLAT admitted an insolvency plea against the company on 3 June 2024. Press Trust of India News has reported that ICICI Bank first initiated proceedings over outstanding debts in September 2018.

The board of Jaiprakash Associates submitted that it will remain ‘asset-rich,’ even after it sells cement plants to repay loans. It attributed its present ‘liquidity crunch’ to delayed government approvals, ‘prolonged’ litigation and policy changes. The NCLAT stated that it must admit insolvency pleas in cases of defaulted debt repayment, saying that a judicial resolution will prevent further depletion of Jaiprakash Associates’ assets.

EU: The European Commission has introduced a Draft Guidance document regarding the Free Allocation Regulation (FAR), now expanded to include ‘alternative hydraulic binders’ within the cement clinker benchmark. To qualify for allocation under this benchmark, these binders must meet three specific criteria: they must be used in cement production, not be included in any other benchmark under the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), and must not be by-products of waste or other production processes.

The European Cement Association (CEMBUREAU) has expressed concerns regarding these criteria. Namely, that the proposed changes suggest a shift from a clinker to a cement-based benchmark approach, making current methodologies and regulations inconsistent and impractical, especially as cement production often occurs outside ETS-covered sites. CEMBUREAU also states that some materials like pozzolana and calcined clay, requiring activation by lime or grey cement clinker, do not fit the hydraulic binder definition. Lastly, the association suggests that only materials covered by the standard EN 197-1 should be considered as alternative hydraulic binders, implying that the current definition in the FAR is overly broad and potentially problematic.

Czech Republic: The Czech Cement Association (SVC ČR) says that it is “firmly” committed to decarbonise the cement industry and has agreed a clear roadmap explaining how to reach net zero by 2050. It added that it was also backing the strategy outlined in the European Commission’s (EC) industrial deal. In a statement the association said, “The position of SVC ČR regarding the proposal of the decarbonising targets by 2040 is that the Czech government has to prepare in cooperation with the individual industries a deep analysis of the opportunities and the risks arising from the new proposal and prepare a long-term strategy to support the competitiveness of Czech energy-intensive industries.”

SVC ČR distanced itself from comments published in ČTK Business News reporting that a group of energy-intensive industry associations in the country had challenged the EC's proposal to aim to reduce CO₂ emissions by 90% by 2040. The associations argue that the target will harm the competitiveness of Czech industries. They say that it is based on unrealistic assumptions and overlooks the absence of necessary conditions for major investment in the EU’s green industry transformation.

This story was updated on 29 February 2024 with comments from SVC ČR

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has voiced its concerns over the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s newly finalised standard for particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5). The new standard reduces the level of particulate matter below 2.5μm diameter permitted in flue gas emissions to 9μg/m³ from 12μg/m³. The PCA says that it is concerned that the new rule may restrict US cement producers’ operations and ‘further complicate’ their efforts to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

President and CEO Mike Ireland said “This new rule strikes at the heart of the US cement industry's ability to deliver on the Biden Administration's infrastructure goals, as it would lead to fewer hours of operation at plants, which would mean layoffs, as well as less American cement and concrete at a time when the country needs more.” He added “The previous EPA standard on particulate matter emissions — arrived at by government officials working with industry — significantly drove down those emissions by 37% over the last 20 years. This downward trend would have continued without the new standard imposed."

However, EPA administrator Michael Stanley Regan said that the updated standard will prevent 4500 premature deaths and 290,000 lost workdays annually by 2032. Regan said “We do not have to sacrifice people to have a prosperous and booming economy.”

World: The Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) has signed a new agreement with the China Cement Association (CCA). The agreement constitutes an historic ‘partnership pledge’ to accelerate cement decarbonisation globally in 2024 – 2026. The partners says that their collaboration will contribute to the development and launch of the upcoming China Cement Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. Equipment supplier Sinoma International Engineering and the European Cement Research Academy (ECRA) will also help to develop the roadmap. The GCCA previously launched its own global net zero roadmap in 2021. Together, GCCA and CCA members account for 90% of global cement production in capacity terms.

GCCA CEO Thomas Guillot, said “The world needs leadership and collaboration like never before, especially on addressing the key issue of our time, climate change. This agreement between the China industry and the global industry is a signal to the world that we stand ready to deliver the essential decarbonised building materials that our planet needs. Cement and concrete enable the key infrastructure, thriving and resilient communities, clean water, safe homes and the shift to clean energy that are essential to a future sustainable world.”

CCA Executive president Kong Xiangzhong said “This important agreement marks a win-win cooperation, and shows where we can collaborate effectively to bring insights, technical know-how and greater focus to our shared decarbonisation mission. I am sure this will create a mutually-beneficial and long-term partnership that will be crucial in building a more sustainable world.”