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Update on Japan, May 2023
17 May 2023The two largest cement producers in Japan released their results for their 2023 financial years this week. Much like manufacturers elsewhere in the world they reported mounting sales revenues, but they also noted losses. Input prices such as coal rose in 2022 and these were passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. However, this was insufficient to stop them making a loss.
In the case of Taiheiyo Cement, its domestic sales volumes of cement remained stable at 13.4Mt in the year to 31 March 2023. It made a loss at home in Japan but still reported a profit in its overseas businesses, despite export volumes falling by 41% year-on-year to 2.44Mt. The group also noted delays at construction sites due to a lack of workers. Recent domestic developments for Taiheiyo include an agreement in October 2022 to buy the cement business of chemicals company Denka. Outside of Japan, in China, the group suspended the production and sale of cement from its Jiangnan-Onoda Cement subsidiary in February 2023 citing a 'tougher competitive environment,' although it justified this decision as part of its strategy to refocus on Southeast Asia. Then, in late April 2023, the company was forced to stop its proposed acquisition of the Tehachapi cement plant in the US due to an inability to obtain regulatory approval.
Sumitomo Osaka reported a similar situation, with cement sales volumes also down year-on-year. Again, cement price increases were unable to catch coal prices made worse by negative currency exchange effects. Having got the bad news out of the way, it then it took the opportunity to outline its medium term strategy to 2035. It said that becoming carbon neutral was the key to this. In its 2022 financial year cement accounted for around 70% of total sales. However, it is now aiming to reduce this to 65% by 2025 and 50% by 2035. If this sounds familiar this is because it is similar to what Holcim is doing with its growing light building materials division and its diversification away from the heavy building materials trio of cement, concrete and aggregates. Sumitomo Osaka plans to invest over US$3.5bn towards this goal by developing its presence in the semiconductors sector, building its business in Australia and starting new ventures in decarbonisation.
Of the other cement producers, Tokuyama Corporation said in late April 2023 that it was considering suspending operation of one of the three kilns at its 4.54Mt/yr Nanyo cement plant as part of measures to strengthen profitability. It reported a growing loss for the current financial year that it blamed on raw material and fuel costs. Mitsubishi Materials and Ube Industries formed their merged cement businesses in April 2022 known as Mitsubishi UBE Cement Corporation. Ube said, as part of its latest financial results, that, despite a gradual decrease in the domestic market, cement sales had remained stable but that the business was “heavily affected” by rising energy prices such as coal. It added that demand for cement and concrete remain strong in its overseas market in North America.
Graph 1: Sales and exports of cement in Japan from 2013 – 2022. Source: Japan Cement Association.
The Japanese cement market peaked in the 1990s. Domestic sales of cement in Japan have declined over the last decade, as can be seen in Graph 1 above, but at a slower rate. Exports rose to a peak of just under 12Mt in 2017 but have slipped a little since then. Data from the Japan Cement Association placed production at 53.2Mt in 2022 compared to 61.7Mt in 2013. This trend explains the move by the cement producers towards decarbonisation, offshoring, diversification and consolidation. The bump in fuel prices over the past year may have accelerated this process, as examples such as Taiheiyo Cement’s takeover of Denka and Sumitomo Osaka’s new business strategy suggest. The race continues to keep cement production profitable in a changing business environment.
India: UltraTech Nathdwara Cement has commissioned its upgraded Neem Ka Thana grinding plant following an 800t/yr capacity expansion. The project expanded the plant's capacity by 57% to 2.2Mt/yr.
The Hindu Business Line newspaper has reported that parent company UltraTech Cement's 22 integrated cement plants, one clinker plant and 27 grinding plants give it an 80% market reach in India.
Italy: Buzzi Unicem reported first-quarter sales of Euro956m in 2023, up by 20% year-on-year from Euro800m in the first quarter of 2022. The producer's cement volumes dropped by 8.8% to 5.8Mt from 6.36Mt. It attributed this to a general slowdown of the construction sector across its markets. Local low demand from the residential market and adverse weather compounded the regional sales contraction in Central Europe. On the other hand, the group recorded volumes growth in Mexico and Russia and stability in Brazil. Both Mexico and Brazil produced revenues growth, while Buzzi Unicem's revenues fell in Russia due to the effect of the appreciation of the ruble against the comparison period in 2022, when the start of the on-going Russian invasion of Ukraine devalued it.
Overall, the group expects to 'easily' match its 2022 full-year earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) in 2023. It said that that it could not currently delineate a 'clearly different picture,' but added "The stabilisation of energy prices, albeit at higher levels than in 2022, if confirmed, will allow us to have better visibility on the unfolding of the production costs from spring onwards."
Austria: RHI Magnesita says that its earnings before interest, taxation and amortisation (EBITA) continued to grow year-on-year during the first quarter of 2023. This was despite an 8% year-on-year drop in refractory sales during the period under review. The refractory supplier attributed its declining sales to reduced construction activity outside of China and India. It said that this slowed demand both for cement and steel. RHI Magnesita noted higher energy costs, while raw materials costs 'remained low.' During the first quarter of 2023, the company acquired India-based refractory producers Dalmia OCL and Hi-Tech. These give it a 20 - 30% market share in India. This advanced its goal of strategic growth in markets in which it is under-represented, including China, India and Türkiye.
Chief executive officer Stefan Borgas said “RHI Magnesita benefited from resilient pricing in the first quarter, as we fulfilled orders placed in the fourth quarter of 2022 during the peak inflationary period. Our improved refractory margin performance benefits from the investments we have made to rationalise our network, and leaves us well placed to meet expectations for the year. We have continued to make steady progress in mergers and acquisitions as we identify value-adding opportunities to grow our business through consolidation in key target geographies and product areas, whilst carefully managing our balance sheet."
Vicat boosts sales in first quarter of 2023
04 May 2023France: Vicat's first-quarter sales were Euro899m in 2023, up by 14% year-on-year from US$789m during the first quarter of 2022. In France sales rose by 9.6% to Euro297m. In the Americas sales rose by 9% to Euro198m. In the Mediterranean region sales rose by 94% to Euro104m and in Africa sales rose by 21% to Euro108m. Meanwhile, sales remained roughly level year-on-year in Asia and Europe (excluding France), at Euro112m and Euro81m respectively.
Chair and CEO Guy Sidos said “Vicat’s first-quarter performance demonstrates the strong resilience of demand in its main markets, which translated into a sharp increase in its consolidated sales when compared to very good first-quarter 2022 figures. Amid changeable winter weather conditions, especially in California, the group has pushed ahead with the ramp-up in its new installation in Alabama and accelerated its strategy of improving its manufacturing performance and shifting away from fossil fuels to achieve its operational, environmental and social objectives.”
Nigeria: Dangote Cement recorded sales of US$609m during the first quarter of 2023, down by 13% year-on-year from US$699m during the first quarter of 2022. The producer reported a 25% decline in its cement sales volumes to 3.6Mt from 4.8Mt. Operating costs rose by 6% to US$355m from US$335m. Dangote Cement said that its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell by 14% to US$458m from US$403m.
Dangote Cement chief executive officer Arvind Pathak said “The cash crunch coupled with the uncertainty around the general elections led to a slowdown in key private and public infrastructure investments in Nigeria. Consequently, our domestic operations recorded a drop in volume." Pathak continued “In fulfilling our commitment to creating additional value for our shareholders, we have received regulatory approval for our second buyback programme. We will continue to monitor the evolving business environment and market conditions in making decisions on tranches."
Slight improvement in Catalonian cement consumption
26 April 2023Spain: Cement consumption grew by 4% in Catalonia in the first quarter of 2023 to reach almost 600,000t. This slight improvement after the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic reflects continued pessimism in the autonomous region’s construction sector. This has been accentuated in recent months by the stoppage of real estate developments due to the uncertainty that inflation causes in costs and the increase in the price of money, which has slowed down the granting of mortgages.
While an 8.3% year-on-year improvement in sales was seen in March 2023, a large portion of this this improvement is due to artificially low consumption in March 2022 when there was a cement trucker strike.
Cash flow issues noted in Vietnamese cement sector
19 April 2023Vietnam: Cash flow issues have been noted as a risk for local cement producers struggling to create enough revenue to continue operations. Revenue is reliant on output, local consumption and exports but these are all falling with raw material costs rising and no improvement forecast for the real estate in the short-term, according to the Việt Nam News newspaper. Examples of cement companies reporting a loss include Quang Ninh Construction and Cement in the fourth quarter of 2022. An estimate by the Quang Ninh Tax Department also showed that the company owed more than US$4.m in July 2021, making it the largest debtor in the province’s building materials industry. Quang Son Cement, based in Thanh Hoa province, also reported an after-tax loss of US$13.5m in 2022.
Data from the Vietnam Association for Building Materials (VABM) shows that the cement industry’s production capacity reached 114Mt/yr in 2022, with an estimated output of 93Mt in 2022, giving it a capacity utilisation rate of 82%. However, domestic consumption accounts for around 60 –65Mt/yr, with exports accounting for the remainder. Information from the General Statistics Office reveal that local cement production fell by just under 10% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023.
Thai Duy Sam, vice president and general secretary of VABM, told Vietnam Investment Review “In recent years, the cost of input materials, particularly coal, has increased multiple times. It has an effect on both production and output.” He added, “Currently, several significant corporations continue to ensure production. However, small enterprises with production lines that can produce 1 - 2t/day face both manufacturing and consumption challenges.” He continued by saying that the production lines of older plants have high depreciation costs and greater heat and electricity consumption than modern units. In addition, these smaller and older plants often lack a trademark, which can make the sales process harder. Commenting on the real estate market, Sam noted complicated payment processes can cause problems with both construction companies and building material suppliers. He cited examples of how the payment for the building materials used to build the Dong Tru and Vinh Tuy bridges had still not been settled 10 years after completion.
India: India Ratings & Research forecasts that cement demand will grow by up to 9% in the 2024 financial year that started in April 2023, due to continued government infrastructure spending. Despite mounting inflation and a large number of capital expenditure projects in progress, it expects cement company profits to recover due to slowing increases in energy costs, according to the Press Trust of India. The current prediction for the 2024 financial year follows a growth estimate of 9% in the 2023 financial year.
The credit ratings agency warned that sector expansion projects will hold back cement production capacity utilisation rate below 70% in the 2024 financial year compared to 65% in the 2023 financial year. It forecasts that three-quarters of around 150Mt/yr of new production capacity is likely to be commissioned by the end of the 2025 financial year. However, as most of this new capacity will be grinding plants, the clinker utilisation rate is likely to remain high.
It added that it expects to see more industry merger and acquisition activity in the south of the country in the short-to-medium term.
Spain: Cement consumption grew by 7% year-on-year to 3.69Mt in the first quarter of 2023 from 3.46Mt in the same period in 2022. The Spanish cement association Oficemen noted that March 2023 had been a strong month for growth, especially due to a transport strike in March 2022, and that elections may have also helped due to a subsequent boost in infrastructure spending. Despite this, exports fell by 6% to 1.34Mt from 1.43Mt.