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Sectoral adjustment continued for the cement industry in China in 2024. Now that the financial results from many of the larger China-based cement producers are out it gives Global Cement Weekly a chance to review the world’s biggest cement market. The decline in national output of cement accelerated in 2024 and the results showed this. CNBM summed up the situation as follows: “In 2024, affected by the reduction of real estate investment and the slowdown of infrastructure projects, the cement industry in China was caught in a situation of insufficient demand and aggravated overcapacity.” Output dropped by just under 10% year-on-year to 1.83Bnt in 2024 according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). This is the fourth consecutive annual decline and the lowest figure the sector has experienced since around 2010.

Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2024. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

The China Cement Association’s (CCA) assessment concurred with CNBM. Although it detected a slowing in the decline in the second half of 2024, especially in the fourth quarter. It noted that the country has a production capacity of 1.81Bnt/yr and an estimated clinker utilisation rate of 53% in 2024. Note the large apparent difference this may suggest between the NBS and CCA figures. Data from the NBS for the first quarter of 2025 has shown a slowing of the decline. Output was 331Mt, a fall of just 1.7% year-on-year from the same period in 2023. The CCA’s prediction for 2025 is that cement demand will fall by 5% as the real estate market continues to deflate. However, it expects government-led capacity reduction schemes to start making progress.

Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

CNBM’s sales revenue fell by 14% to US$24.8bn in 2024. Sales of its Basic Building Materials segment fell by 23% to US$12.5bn. This was blamed on falling volumes and prices of cement and other heavy building materials. Sales from the group’s two other segments - New Materials and Engineering Technology Services - rose modestly but this wasn’t enough to hold up total group sales. Operating profit from the Basic Building Materials segment decreased by 45% to US$544m. It was a similar picture at Anhui Conch with sales revenue and net profit down by 36% to US$12.4bn and by 25% to US$1.01bn respectively. Notably, CNBM’s sales volumes of cement decreased by 21% to 245Mt in 2024 compared to a decrease of 6.5% to 268Mt by Anhui Conch. This made Anhui Conch the world’s biggest cement company by sales volumes in 2024.

Tangshan Jidong Cement and China Resources Building Materials Technology (CRBMT) both reported a similar situation. Revenue was down and a net loss was reported by the former. Both revenue and net profit were down for the latter. CRBMT said that its cement capacity utilisation rate was 69% in 2024, down from 71% in 2023. This appears to be significantly higher than the national rate mentioned above by the CCA but the company’s regional distribution may be at play here.

Following from recent years, Huaxin Cement bucked the general market trend and its revenue rose modestly to US$4.7bn in 2024. Its net profit still fell by 12.5% to US$330m. Its overseas businesses made the difference. It reported an increase of 37% to 16.2Mt in overseas cement sales with its non-China cement production capacity rising by 8% to 22.5Mt/yr. Milestones include various new or upgraded plant projects in Sub-Saharan Africa capped off by its announcement at the end of 2024 that it was preparing to buy Lafarge Africa. Other cement companies were also keen to promote overseas activity. CNBM said that the first signing of overseas merger and acquisition was achieved in 2024. This is likely to be the purchase of the Djebel El Oust cement plant in Tunisia from Votorantim Cimentos that was completed in late March 2025. Tangshan Jidong Cement acquired the remaining 40% share in South Africa-based Mamba Cement in April 2024.

All of this leaves the cement sector in China still waiting for the market to stabilise. US tariffs seem unlikely to have an effect in any meaningful way unless the general economy is altered. The declining real estate sector and cement production overcapacity are the main drivers at the national level. The CCA expects the real estate market to continue to fall in 2025 although it hopes that government remedy measures will start to show an effect. It is more optimistic about capacity reduction plans. One route towards this is through merger and acquisition activity. In a recent response to investors about industry integration, Huaxin Cement speculated that the sector might consolidate down to 30 companies from around 300 at present. There is clearly still a way to go.

It’s been a strong start to 2025 for the Brazilian cement sector. The National Cement Industry Union (SNIC) reported recently that cement sales in the first quarter of 2025 have been the strongest since 2015. Producers sold 15.6Mt in the three month period, a rise of 5.9% year-on-year from 14.7Mt in the same period in 2024.

The result has been attributed to a growing real estate market boosted by housing schemes such as the ongoing Minha Casa Minha Vida programme. SNIC also noted a growing labour market and wage increases, although sales from infrastructure projects failed to keep up. Unfortunately, SNIC is wary of whether the positive news will continue in the second half of 2025. Risks such as interest rates, growing general debt levels and the effects of any potential international trade wars all lie ahead.

Graph 1: Cement production in Brazil, 2017 - 2024. Production estimated for 2024 based on National Cement Industry Union (SNIC) preliminary data on sales. Source: SNIC.

Based on preliminary SNIC data from December 2024, the country likely had its best year in 2024 since the market peaked in the mid-2010s. Cement sales were reported to have risen by 3.9% to 64.7Mt in 2024. Consumption was 73Mt. An estimate of production based on the same rate of growth suggests that cement production may have grown to 69Mt in 2024 from 66.5Mt in 2023.

The three main cement companies - Votorantim Cimentos, InterCement and CSN - each reported domestic earnings growth in 2024. In Votorantim’s case net revenue in Brazil was flat in 2024 at US$1.39bn but its adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased by 4% year-on-year to US$390m supported by higher prices, volumes and lower costs. InterCement has been in a debt resolution process since December 2024, which will be discussed below. Its sales volumes of cement were flat at 8.6Mt and sales revenue fell by 6.6% to US$557m. Yet, adjusted EBITDA rose by 10.2% to US$135m. CSN’s sales volumes of cement increased by 5.9% to 13.5Mt and its cement business sales revenue by 5.7% to US$810m. However, its adjusted EBITDA zoomed ahead by 39.5% to US$231m. The group attributed its higher sales volumes of cement to its strategy of focusing on logistics and distribution centres to target new markets, build market share and boost synergies.

As covered by Global Cement Weekly previously, InterCement has been trying to sell assets since at least the early 2010s. High debt levels have been a problem more recently and the company entered into judicial recovery, a court-led debt recovery process, in December 2024. How this process plays out should inform the nature of any subsequent divestment of assets. InterCement attempted to sell its subsidiary in Argentina, Loma Nega, to CSN in 2024. Unfortunately, this reportedly failed due to the appreciation of Loma Negra and due to disagreements between bondholders and shareholders of parent company Mover, according to the Valor Econômico newspaper. At home in Brazil, Buzzi, CSN, Huaxin Cement, Polimix, Vicat and Votorantim have all been linked to a potential sale of InterCement assets in a piecemeal fashion. Votorantim, in particular, is expected to face opposition from the local competition regulator CADE if it attempted to buy all of InterCement’s cement plants.

It’s positive to see the cement industry in Brazil starting to reach the sales levels last recorded in 2014. SNIC, understandably, isn't taking anything for granted. It’s warned of more modest growth in 2025, compared to the strong opening quarter, with levels forecast to be somewhere between 1 - 1.5%. It says that this will depend on the “evolution of the economy, monetary policy and investments in infrastructure and housing.” It has also warned of “uncertainties arising from the US.” The other big ‘if’ is whether InterCement can actually start selling cement plants in 2025. Time will tell.

President Trump said he was going to do it… and he did. The US announced tariffs on most imports on 2 April 2025 that took effect from 5 April 2025. So, once again, we ask what the consequences of this might be upon the cement sector.

Table 1: Estimated burden of US tariffs on selected countries importing cement based on 2024 data. Source: Based on USGS data.

Global Cement Magazine Editorial Director Robert McCaffrey posted a similar table to the one above on LinkedIn on 4 April 2025. It applies the new import tariffs to the value of imported hydraulic cement and clinker to the US in 2024 as reported by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). As such it gives us a starting idea of how the new tariffs might change what happens in 2025. For an idea of the volumes of cement imported to the US in recent years refer to the graph in GCW695.

However, a couple of key caveats were pointed out by commentators to that LinkedIn post. Marty Ozinga noted that the values from the USGS are customs values. Crucially, he said that the tariffs will be charged upon the FOB value of cement at the point of origin and not on the transport costs. This is significant because the cost of moving the cement can sometimes be more than half the total values reported in the table for certain countries. Another commentator wanted to make it clear that tariffs on imports are imposed upon the supply chain and are paid somewhere along it, typically by end users, rather than the originating country. Elsewhere, the feeling was very much one of waiting to see what would happen next and how markets would reorder.

Taken at face value, the first takeaway from Table 1 is that the variable tariffs disrupt the competitiveness of the importers. Any importer from a country with the lowest rate, 10%, now has an advantage over those with higher ones. Türkiye seems to be the obvious winner here as it was both the largest importer of cement in 2024 and it has the lowest rate. Vietnam appears to be a loser with a massive 46% rate. Canada and Mexico may have problems with a 25% tariff but how their cement gets to the US market may make a big difference as Ozinga mentions above. And so it goes down the list. What may be significant is how the order of the importers further down the list changes. For example, Algeria has a 30% rate compared to Egypt’s 10%. Both nations exported a similar volume of cement to the US in 2024.

The first casualty of the last week has been market certainty. The US announced the tariffs and stock markets slumped around the world. They started to revive on 8 April 2025 as the US government made more reassuring noises about trade talks but this was dampened by renewed fears of a US - China trade war. The orthodox economic view is that the US tariffs are increasingly likely to cause a recession in the US in the short term regardless of whether they have a more positive effect on the longer one. This view can be detected in former PCA economist Ed Sullivan’s latest independent report on the US economy. He acknowledged the fairness argument the US government has made, but warned of stagflation.

On the US construction market, prices look set to rise in areas that previously relied on imports or are near to them. Cement companies in the US should be able to sell higher volumes as some level of domestic production outcompetes imports. The sector produced 86Mt in 2024 and has a capacity of 120Mt/yr giving it a utilisation rate of 72%. It imported 20 - 25Mt of cement in 2024. One sign of this happening might be renewed investment in local capacity through upgrades, new lines and even new plants. However, a recession would reduce overall consumption. On the equipment side, there is likely to be a similar readjustment between local and foreign suppliers. Certainly, if the tariffs stick around then more non-US companies may be tempted to set up local subsidiaries and /or manufacturing bases if conditions permit. For example, note JCB’s doubling in size this week of a plant it is building in Texas. One interesting situation might occur if a US cement company wants to build a new production line. All the likely suppliers, at present at least, appear to be based outside of the US.

Finally, despite everything, Holcim declared this week that it had completed a $3.4bn bond offering ahead of the impending spin-off of Amrize in the US noting “strong investor interest in the future company.” It wants to shore-up confidence ahead of the creation of the new company at some point in the first half of the year. Holcim’s CEO said previously that he didn’t expect any blowback from tariffs as the company was a local business in the US. What may be worth watching for is whether the current disruption to stock markets causes any delays to the creation of Amrize.

The current situation with the tariffs is prompting a rapid-revaluation of the US construction market and the wider economy. US-based building materials companies look set to benefit but there may be disruption along the way. Foreign companies supplying the sector may well experience sharp changes in circumstances depending on how tariffs reorder supply chains. Prices for end-users look set to rise. We live in interesting times.

For Ed Sullivan’s take on the US cement sector read his article in the May 2025 issue of Global Cement Magazine

Spain: Cement consumption grew by 8.6% year-on-year across Spain in February 2025 to reach 1.27Mt, around 0.1Mt more than in February 2024, according to the latest data published by the national cement association Oficemen. In the cumulative figures for the first two months of 2025, consumption was 2.4Mt, 0.2Mt (9.4%) higher than the equivalent figures for 2024. Rolling year-on-year data - covering March 2024 to February 2025 - showed consumption of 15.1Mt, a 4.4% increase compared to the year earlier period.

Aniceto Zaragoza, CEO of Oficemen, said “Although it is still early to make assessments, it is significant to note that February 2025 was the highest cement consumption month since 2011. This confirms a certain continuity in the positive trend we experienced at the end of 2024 and which we expected to continue in 2025.”

Cement exports from Spain fell by 15.3% in February 2025 to 0.31Mt, 55,627t less than in February 2024. In rolling year figures, exports fell by 5.1% over the 12-month period, to reach 4.8Mt.

Colombia: Grey cement production in Colombia fell by 5.9% year-on-year to 0.95Mt in January 2025. Domestic shipments also fell by 3.0%, reflecting lower demand in the construction market, according to the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE).

DANE reported that cumulative production between February 2024 and January 2025 reached 13.3Mt, a 5.7% year-on-year decrease compared to the same period a year previously. Domestic shipments dropped by 12.1Mt. Industry experts warn that these results could impact the pace of construction activity in the country in the coming months.

Puerto Rico: 55,500t of bagged cement were sold in Puerto Rico in February 2025, a 12.3% year-on-year increase compared to February 2024. Data from the Economic Development Bank shows that production of cement within the territory rose by 10.4% to 16,200t.

In the first eight months of the 2025 fiscal year, which runs from 1 July 2024 to 30 June 2025, cement sales have increased by 3.8% compared to the same period in the 2024 fiscal year.

US: Cement shipments fell by 6% year-on-year to 103Mt in 2024 from 109Mt in 2023. Data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) shows that domestic shipments of Portland and blended cement decreased by 6% to 82.9Mt from 88.2Mt. However, imports only dipped slightly to 19.8Mt. Particular declines in shipments were recorded in the north-east and Texas. Türkiye remained the biggest source of imports in 2024 (7.16Mt), followed by Canada (4.85Mt), Vietnam (4.17Mt), Greece (1.82Mt) and Mexico (1.32Mt). Clinker production dropped by 7% to 71.6Mt from 76.8Mt.

India: The Adani Group has launched new investment plans in the states of Assam and Madhya Pradesh, including in their cement sectors. Chair Gautam Adani says that the group will invest US$5.73bn in Assam and US$12.6bn in Madhya Pradesh. The Business Standard newspaper has reported that the latter investment will generate over 100,000 new jobs and involve the construction of a new smart city.

India: JSW Group is actively seeking investment opportunities in Assam’s cement sector. Besides cement production, the group is reportedly investigating power plant opportunities in the state.

The Business Standard newspaper has reported that JSW Group Chair Sajjan Jindal noted the strategic importance of North East India as one half of a ‘dual-engine’ Indian economy.

North America: Switzerland-based Holcim has announced the name for its upcoming spin-off of its North American operations: Amrize. Amrize will operate as an independent public company and a leader in the North American building materials sector ‘from foundation to rooftop.’ Holcim says that the new name combines the business’ values and vision of ‘ambition’ and ‘rising.’ A spin-off on the New York Stock Exchange and SIX Swiss Exchange is scheduled for completion before 30 June 2025, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.

Holcim Chair and designated Chair and CEO of Amrize Jan Jenisch said "This is an exciting time for construction in North America, with the ongoing modernisation of infrastructure, the reshoring of manufacturing and the opportunity to bridge the housing gap with the most advanced building solutions. With our planned spin-off of Amrize, we aim to be the partner of choice for our North American customers and unlock value for all our stakeholders.”