Global Cement News

Two of Japan's largest cement producers have reported reduced domestic cement sales in the country this week. First, Taiheiyo Cement revised its forecast for its 2017 financial year, ending on 31 March 2017, bringing its estimated net sales down by 2.3%. Then, Ube Group reported that its cement sales had fallen by 7.2% year-on-year to US$1.05bn in the first half of its financial year. Both producers blamed poor weak demand locally, but Ube also cited a poor export market.

Graph 1: Domestic and export cement sales in Japan, 2006 - 2015. Source: Japanese Cement Association.

This last point is interesting because it differs from the latest data released by the Japanese Cement Association (JCA). As can be seen in Graph 1 JCA figures show that exports of cement have been rising since 2013. So far this trend looks likely to continue in 2016. Ube's different experience may arise from its market mix and its distribution of cement plants and transport infrastructure. Both of its cement plants are based in the south of the country. Commentators have attributed the boost in exports to the devaluation of the Yen in 2015 as well as strong brand perception overseas. Unfortunately, this overall rise in exports has been matched by a fall in domestic sales at the same time and this is causing a headache for the major producers. Production too has started to drop since 2014 (Graph 2).

Graph 2: Cement production in Japan, 2006 - 2015. Source: Japanese Cement Association.

Japan's cement market is dominated by four producers - Taiheiyo Group, Mitsubishi Materials, Ube Industries and Sumitomo Osaka Cement - which hold nearly three quarters of the nation's production capacity between them. According to Global Cement Directory 2016 data, Taiheiyo Cement and its subsidiaries is the market leader with over 30% market share with the other three holding 10 - 20% each.

Graph 3: Cement production capacity share in Japan (Mt). Source: Global Cement Directory 2016.

Taiheiyo's downgraded forecast follows poor first quarter results, in which its net sales for its cement business fell by 16% to US$1.19bn. This follows a slight rise in net sales for its cement business in its 2016 financial year due to a boost in sales from its overseas subsidiaries, particularly in the US, that surpass a fall in domestic sales. Sales volumes were 14.7Mt domestically and 4Mt in exports in 2016. Mitsubishi Materials has posted a similar picture with cement sales and profits rising in 2016 before suffering in the first quarter of 2017. Mitsubishi Materials blamed the poor market on a delay in construction work mainly due to labour shortages and sluggish growth in demand from the public sector. Ditto Sumitomo Osaka Cement.

As highlighted by such decision as Tokyo Cement's move to resume exporting clinker to Sri Lanka in early 2015, Japan's cement industry is working hard to compensate for falling demand at home. Increasing exports in Asia Pacific among other massive exporters such as China, Vietnam and South Korea is impressive, although the prominent foothold by Japanese companies in the recovering US market may offer some advantage here. On-going weak demand in China though cuts out one major market for Chinese exporters. However, being a major exporter in a region of major cement producers must be a concern. Although commentators such as Ad Ligthart dismiss the chances of China flooding the world with cheap cement, if they are wrong and Japan continues its reliance on exports it may find itself in deep water. The other risk is if the US authorities decide to get tougher on foreign exports it may knock out one more market for Japanese exports. Too much reliance on exports is always dangerous. In this context, it’s no surprise that Japanese cement producers are blaming the government for insufficient infrastructure spending.

South Africa: PPC has appointed Peter Nelson as its permanent board chairman following his interim tenure in the role following the retirement of Bheki Sibiya. The appointment took affect from 24 October 2016. Other recent appointments include the proposal to elect Nicky Goldin as the third member of the audit committee following the retirement of Bridgette Modise and the appointment of Timothy Leaf-Wright as chairman of the risk and compliance committee with immediate effect

Nelson was appointed to the board as an independent non-executive director on 25 January 2015. His experience covers manufacturing, mining, telecommunications, healthcare, leisure, property, packaging and the motor industry in listed and private entities in South Africa, the UK, Zimbabwe and Nigeria. He has served as chief financial officer on several boards including Telkom, Netcare, Mondi and he was the financial director of PPC from 2000 to 2003.

Goldin was appointed to the board as an independent non-executive director in January 2015 and currently serves on the Remuneration and
Investment sub-committees of the board. She holds a B.Com (Hons) from the University of the Witwatersrand and obtained an MBA from the University of Illinois. She has held senior positions at Deloitte Consulting, BHP Billiton, Anglo American, Standard Bank and ANZ Bank (Australia).

Leaf-Wright is a chartered secretary and was appointed to the board as an independent non-executive director in January 2015. He currently serves as a member of the risk and compliance, social, ethics and transformation and investment committees. His career with Nampak Limited spanned 41 years prior to early retirement in 2014. During the last 11 years, he was seconded to Mozambique, Nigeria and Angola to spearhead negotiations and subsequently construction and managing of both brown and greenfield plants in those countries.

Brazil: Camargo Corrêa has named Heinz-Peter Elstrodt as its chairman replacing Vitor Hallack. The decision to hire Elstrodt is part of the conglomerate’s intention to direct the company towards asset portfolio management away from the construction industry, according to the Valor Econômico newspaper. Previously, German national Elstrodt has spent 32 years at the consultancy McKinsey, where he reached the role of Latin America president. The changes in management follow the resignation of Hallack in August 2016 and governance problems following links to the Petrobras corruption scandal.

Belgium: Taner Aykac has been appointed the managing director of Compagnie des Ciments Belges (CCB). The board of directors has also appointed Eddy Fostier as general manager of the company.

Aykac, a Belgian national aged 53 years, holds a Bachelor of Science in Engineering and a MBA. He started his career in the agrochemical sector for Pioneer Overseas Corporation/DuPont in 1988 and subsequently worked for chemical and pharmaceutical multinationals such as Ciba-Geigy, Novartis and Zeneca, where he held various senior roles until 2000 before working for Syngenta Group. In 2011, Aykac was appointed CEO of Cimentas, a Cementir Group subsidiary in the Turkish cement and ready-mixed concrete business, contributing to the reorganisation of the company. He worked in Turkey until the end of 2015.

One fascinating statistic stands out in a study on how the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) pays its bills: cement represented 4% of its revenue in 2015 or around US$100m. The Centre for the Analysis of Terrorism (CAT) came up with this figure as part of its analysis on how the group finances itself. Its data was based on available information such as local sources, internal ISIS documents and reports from governments and institutions.

What’s more, the previous year in 2014, CAT estimated that ISIS brought in US$300m from cement sales. The difference in revenue between 2015 and 2014 came about from the group losing control of territory. In late 2014 it controlled four cement plants: the Lafarge Al-Jalabiya plant in Ayn al-Arabin, the Al-Raqqah Guris Cement plant and Fallujah, Kubaisa and Al-Qa’im plants in Iraq. Altogether it had a cement production capacity of 7.5Mt/yr, a higher capacity than 62% of the cement producing nations that are recognised formally by the United Nations. Briefly it had production parity with countries like Angola, Uzbekistan and Kuwait.

However the loss of the Al-Jalabiya and Kubaisa plants has stifled this revenue stream. At its peak ISIS couldn’t have been selling cement for more than something like US$40/t (capacity / revenue) if the plants were operating at full capacity. Yet it’s much more likely that the plants were chronically under-utilised and prices significantly higher in the heat, dust and confusion of a militant group attempting to form a state in a warzone.

Global Cement Weekly has covered previously the furore that erupted when French media accused Lafarge of cutting deals with ISIS to keep its Jalabiya cement plant during the early stages of the Syrian Civil War. At the time of the revelations in June 2016 LafargeHolcim said that its first priority was the safety and security of its employees at the plant before it eventually closed it, although it did not deny accusations directly.

Since then the plant’s former security manager Jacob Waerness has popped up in an interview with Bloomberg in connection with a book he wrote about the affair. According to Waerness, Lafarge stayed in the country for too long before the plant was finally seized by ISIS in September 2014.

The problem for Lafarge, as other multinational companies left the warzone, was that the US$680m plant had only been operational since late 2010 before hostilities broke out in 2011. Essentially, it tried to wait out the conflict and then got left behind. Pertinent to the start of this column, Waerness says that as the more extreme groups took control of the surrounding area he was offered and declined a meeting with the IS finance chief in Raqqa in the summer of 2013. However else one might describe IS, it was and clearly is well aware of the revenue to be gained from functioning cement plants.

LafargeHolcim has since started an internal review into the reported allegations under the auspices of its Finance & Audit Committee. In September 2016 the Iranian-backed Fars News Agency was reporting that US special forces were using the Jalabiya plant as a base. If and when peace comes to the region it will be intriguing to find out what condition the plant is in. Until then, LafargeHolcim will have to wait and take the loss on its investment.