Global Cement News

This week's news that Boral's operations have been disrupted by the Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union (CFMEU) in the Australian state of Victoria highlights an increasingly difficult situation for the company and the Australian cement industry in general.

Boral's worksite at Footscray, near Melbourne, was allegedly blockaded by the CFMEU last week over the union's separate and long-running dispute with site contractor Grocon. The CFMEU wants Boral to stop supplying Grocon sites. Boral says that it has been forced to address the issue at Footscray and two other sites by issuing injunctions against the union. After its first half results announcement last week, which showed a loss of US$192m for the year ending 30 June 2013, this is clearly the last thing that Boral needs to be dealing with.

So far, 2013 has seen mainly trouble for Boral. In January it announced that it would shed 1000 jobs across its global operations, including 885 in its native Australia. In February it announced that the company made a US$25m loss in the half year to 31 December 2012. In March, it restructured by merging production divisions to save additional cash. It also had to suspend production at its Waurn Ponds plant. However, revenues have been rising. Boral is not Titan.

Elsewhere in Australia, Adelaide Brighton announced that its first half 2013 profit fell by 9% year-on-year. It expects no improvement over 2012 in the rest of the year.

With the onset of the carbon tax, cement manufacturing is increasingly expensive in Australia, a fact that is especially difficult when combined with lower demand. China, Indonesia and Vietnam all produce similar quality cement 'nearby' at considerably lower cost, making the long-term future of cement manufacturing in Australia look fragile. Indeed, this is a trend that Australia shares with its antipodean neighbour. In New Zealand, after years of indecision, Holcim recently decided to not build a new cement plant at Weston. A new import terminal is its new preferred strategy. Could Australia, a country with such vast reserves of fuels and minerals, also be gradually heading towards cement import dependency?

Denmark: Cement plant manufacturer FLSmidth has announced that Virve Elisabeth Meesak has been appointed to a newly created position in Group Executive Management as Group Executive Vice President, Global Human Resources. She will take up her new position on 1 September 2013. The new role has been created in an effort to effectively strengthen the FLSmidth Group's competitiveness by focusing more on strategic human resource management.

Meesak, 53, is a Swedish citizen and has been an independent Human Resource consultant specialised in change management, leadership training and executive coaching since 2010. Between 2008 and 2010 she was Human Resource Director for Alstom Power Services (North East Europe) and from 2005 to 2008 she held the position of Vice President (Human Resources) at Sandvik Mining and Construction AB. Prior to 2005 Meesak had a number of other vice president roles.

'Below expectations' was the headline message from Holcim's half-year results this week. Canada, Mexico and Morocco were all singled out as problem areas for Holcim but surely India represents the biggest headache for the debt-reducing multinational.

How badly its bottom line was hit by India in particular, Holcim declined to say. Overall its entire Asia Pacific region saw sales volumes of cement fall by 3.7% to 37.8Mt to 36.4Mt for the first six months of 2013. In 2012, India represented over half of the group's Asia Pacific installed cement production capacity. This suggests that the actual drop in sales in India was probably at least 6%, more if the other countries in the territory did better than in 2012. Overall profits for the Asia Pacific region fell by 14% to US$650m. What we do know is that Holcim announced major restructuring to its businesses in India in late July 2013 to cut costs.

The other major cement producers in India have fared similarly badly. UltraTech's first quarter profit, for the period ending on 30 June 2013, fell by 13.5% to US$111m. Its revenue fell by 2% to US$820m. Jaiprakash Associates also reported a 2% dip in its cement sector revenue to US$247m in the quarter ending on 30 June 2013. Profits fell by 24% to US$27m. India Cements' sales revenue rose by 3% to US$196m. Yet its operating profit fell too, by 41% to US$19.8m.

Both Holcim and India Cements blamed falling cement prices in the south of India. India Cements directly mentioned overcapacity. The only explanation UltraTech offered for its poor performance was rising input and logistics costs.

Problems in India are not unexpected. Overcapacity has loomed over the Indian cement industry for some time as the race for growth far overtook the increase in demand. In the wider economy, India hit its lowest gross domestic product increase in a decade, 'just 5%', for the financial year ending on 31 March 2013. Meanwhile the Indian Rupee fell to a record low of 61 against the US Dollar in late June 2013. Not good news at all for any cement producers looking to offset energy or raw materials costs from abroad.

As predicted in our overview of the Indian cement industry back in February 2013, the smaller cement producers are now likely to get picked off by the larger firms as capacity utilisation falls and fuel costs rise. It is interesting to compare this free-market led cement industry consolidation to the state-directed one happening in China.

The Indian media are certainly wise to this with reports and speculation on endless takeover rumours. One example of this is the Irish building materials conglomerate Cement Roadstone Holdings's (CRH) decision to purchase Sree Jayajothi Cements that was announced in early August 2013. However with CRH itself having just reported that it made a loss in the first half of 2013 it may be regretting that it finally has a presence in the south of India.

Saudi Arabia: The management board of Najran Cement has approved the appointment of Mohammed bin Mani bin Sultan Aba al-Ala as board chairman and managing director, with a three-year term. The company also named Daifullah al-Ghamidi as deputy board chairman.

In the January 2013 issue of Global Cement Magazine, we featured a review of the Ethiopian cement industry. At the time we were hopeful with respect to the country's future cement demand, buoyed along by Ethiopia's own bold targets for development of the sector. It seemed only a matter of time before international and regional producers went to Ethiopia and cashed in on a cement plant-building bonanza.

Ethiopia's government is keen to further develop Ethiopia's cities and infrastructure and wants to increase its per-capita cement consumption from 35kg/yr at present to ~300kg/yr in the period to 2017. To do this, it is encouraging the cement sector to swell from its current capacity (7.4Mt/yr integrated capacity with additional grinding capability) to over 27Mt/yr by the same year. At the same time, the country has banned cement imports, a bold statement of intent designed to protect its own growing industry.

This week, we have learned that the country is hitting its bold production targets, largely without assistance from outside players. However, it seems that Ethiopia is incapable of consuming the volumes of cement that have been produced. As of 12 August 2013, the Ministry of Industry announced that Ethiopia made 12Mt of cement in the year to 7 July 2013, more than double the 5.4Mt/yr that it demanded over the same period. This revelation casts the government's future predictions for rapid cement demand growth in serious doubt.

While it takes effort to picture Ethiopia producing 27Mt/yr of cement by 2017, such rapid development is happening in west Africa, where Nigeria's Dangote Cement is achieving 'regional-giant' status.

However, it would take a very great leap of imagination to believe that Ethiopia could consume 27Mt/yr in 2017, five times what it does today, even with the development of major projects like the Millennium Renaissance Dam (a US$4.2bn hydroelectric project), major city and road-building projects and a rapidly growing population. Its cement capacity would have to grow by 4.9Mt/yr, representing average year-on-year cement demand growth of 52.5%/yr. Even with a cement industry the size of Ethiopia's, this represents almost impossible growth. To support this increase in demand, GDP/capita, which is often closely correlated to cement demand, would probably also have to raise fivefold, from US$374 to US$1870. This difference would take it from the bottom 20% of African nations well into the top third by this measure.

If this over-production trend continues, it does not bode well for Ethiopia's domestic cement industry. While exports may appear attractive, options are limited. Kenya to the south has a larger and more well-established cement industry, Somalia has major economic and security drawbacks and Ethiopia's relationships with Eritrea and Djibouti, both of which declared independence from Ethiopia, are tense. With no coast of its own, maritime exports will be difficult, especially with low-cost cement flowing from India, Pakistan and Iran. South Sudan, with its lack of cement production facilities, plentiful oil and major trade/border dispute with Sudan, could offer a small market for Ethiopian exports, but not enough to satisfy a ~20Mt/yr overcapacity.

Read Global Cement's January 2013 review of the Ethiopian cement industry here.