Displaying items by tag: Analysis

Just one week after Dangote started trial production at its new Mugher cement plant in Ethiopia it announced that it would be doubling capacity at the site. Upgrade work is slated to begin before the end of 2015, according to Nigerian media.

The move shows how much potential Ethiopia is seen to have for the cement industry. With a population of around 90m, it had a cement production capacity of 9.7Mt/yr before the new 2.5Mt/yr Dangote plant comes on line, according to Global Cement Directory 2015 figures. Including the new Dangote plant and even at 100% capacity utilisation this would place cement consumption in the country at 135kg/capita. This is a low figure internationally and hence the continued interest in new capacity. Subsequently, a large number of projects have been rumoured and mooted in Ethiopia over the years. However, many of these publicised projects then fail to make it to construction.

Mebrahtu Meles, the Minister of Industry, said that there were 18 companies engaged in cement production at the 7th Africa Cement Trade Summit that took place in Addis Ababa in April 2015. Meles placed the installed production capacity at 11.2Mt/yr (including the Dangote plant) with the expectation that this will increase to 17.15Mt. However, these cement plants are only producing 5.47Mt/yr, giving the country a capacity utilisation rate of below 50%. This too is low by international standards (60% or more). Cement consumption was placed at just 62kg/capita in 2014.

At the same event, the Ministry of Industry revealed that it was working on a national Cement Industry Development Strategy from 2015 to 2025. The strategy will tackle local industry issues such as unavailability of locally-produced packaging materials, poor transport links, high costs of production and a limited market. Key targets include stimulating cement demand to 12.22Mt/yr by 2020 by moving to concrete road construction and raising capacity utilisation rate to 75% by 2017 and to 80% to 2025.

Despite the publicity Dangote isn't the only player creating new capacity in Ethiopia. Habesha Cement is set to open its 1.4Mt/yr cement plant near to Addis Ababa in 2016. Habesha also has an international angle, given that South African cement producer PPC purchased the majority stake in Habesha Cement in the autumn of 2014 following the project's difficult financial history.

The new Dangote plant predates the country's new cement industry strategy but the upgrade plans demonstrate confidence in both the market and the government's plans. To meet its targets though the country is going to need to increase both its capacity utilisation and build more production capacity. Although muted from previous pronouncements the current target relies on Habesha Cement building its plant and the capacity utilisation rate rising from 50% to at least 75%.

South African weekly newspaper, M&G Africa, has described how Africa faces an infrastructure 'apartheid' whereby 44 of the continent's 58 countries share just 25% of the continent's infrastructure. Building things in Africa costs more because of this infrastructure deficit and it hits cement capacity utilisation rates as well. Ethiopia is one of the region's richer countries in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) but the same issues apply. Hitting its targets for the cement industry may be hard.

In the UK there is an expression, coined by former Prime Minister Harold Wilson, that a 'week is a long time in politics.' While the week he was referring to has long since been forgotten, this refrain has since been repeated to the point of cliché by the mainstream media and is often used in the context of rapidly-changing political news stories. Regardless of its origin, this expression could well be used to accurately describe the current situation in France and Switzerland, where the past week has seen a number of serious and unpredictable developments in the preparation of the anticipated LafargeHolcim mega-merger.

Disgruntlement from 'those close to the deal' first surfaced as a 'wild rumour' a few weeks back but, in the past seven days, several of Holcim's shareholders, including the influential Thomas Schmidheiny, have questioned the contribution that can now be made by Lafarge. Holcim shareholders claim that the group has out-performed Lafarge in the 12 months since the deal was announced and they feel that this should be recognised financially. The abandonment of the Euro1.20 cap on the Swiss Franc by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) on 15 January 2015 has loaded the dice even further in Holcim's favour.

This is how the situation has deteriorated in the past seven days. Late last week, we had confirmation that Holcim was seeking to renegotiate the terms of the merger. On Monday we heard what at least part of those terms were, including an assertion that each Lafarge share was now worth just 0.875 of a Holcim share. Lafarge's main shareholders, accepting that their position was compromised to an extent, suggested that each Lafarge share was worth 0.93 of a Holcim share. Since then, it has become apparent that Bruno Lafont, the proposed leader of LafargeHolcim, has also put Holcim in a spin, as he is perceived to have presided over Lafarge's poorer performance.

Then, just yesterday, it was announced that the two current group boards had met separately in an attempt to arrive at new conditions with which to re-start negotiations. Commentators think that Holcim is holding all of the Aces but Lafarge has made it clear that it cannot accept a lower valuation and a CEO from Holcim. Discussions that take place 'in the dark' like this will do little to build confidence between the merging parties and infers that communication has become strained. There are twinges of antagonism in the releases that are not going to be solved by the boards sitting in separate rooms and whipping themselves into a frenzy.

Also caught up in this, like the child of a divorcing couple, is CRH. It only announced its purchase of Holcim and Lafarge divestments in February 2015. It stands to gain a joint Euro158m from Lafarge and Holcim if they fail to merge, but this will not make up for the loss of the many high-quality cement assets it otherwise stands to gain.

What will happen in the coming weeks? You have to be brave to predict how this will turn out, but our LinkedIn Group is a great place to discuss this rapidly-changing story. One thing we can be sure of is that there will be a lot to write about in another seven days. After all, a week is a long time in the cement industry!

On 15 January 2015, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) abandoned the Euro1.20 cap on the Swiss Franc. The effects of the decision were immediate, with the value of a Franc dropping from Euro1.20 to just Euro0.99. The decision caused turmoil for currency brokers and big business in Switzerland's normally bullet-proof finance sector, with some brokers out of business by the end of the same day.

It is not hard to see why these brokers were caught out by the sudden change in the SNB's position. On 18 December 2014 Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the SNB's Governing Board, stated in no uncertain terms that, "The SNB remains committed to purchasing unlimited quantities of foreign currency to enforce the minimum exchange rate with the utmost determination." In research conducted by Bloomberg News on 9 - 14 January 2015, not one of 22 economists questioned expected the SNB to abandon the cap in 2015. That's quite an about-turn by the SNB in less than a month.

The decision to 'scrap-the-cap' shows the potential of outside influences to suddenly unseat even the most secure of businesses. Such companies include Holcim, the share-price of which went on a rollercoaster on the SIX Swiss Exchange in the immediate aftermath of the announcement. At one point on 15 January 2015 Holcim had lost 20% of its value before closing 11% down on the day. It has since recovered somewhat, although a whopping Euro3bn of its capital has been swallowed up due to the plummeting Franc.

Following the sudden changes to its circumstances, Holcim immediately reinforced its commitment to its merger with Lafarge. "Regarding a possible impact on the combination with Lafarge, what we can say is that we remain committed to the merger," said spokesman Eike-Christian Meuter. There was an almost simultaneous reciprocal statement from the French producer, also stating its commitment. No change there then.

The calmness of Holcim's statements was broadly in line with commentary from bankers, which stated that large deals were unlikely to be affected by the change. This is because Swiss firms can insure themselves against the effects of such moves. Another 'get-out of jail free card' could have been a material adverse change (MAC) clause. If in place a MAC would allow the merging parties to terminate a transaction if an external event significantly changes the outlines of the deal. It is not possible to know whether Lafarge and Holcim have such a clause due to confidentiality issues.

Despite the fundamentals of the LafargeHolcim merger appearing to be unaffected, the scrapping of the Franc cap is an excellent example of how external policy makers can have a direct and unexpected impact on the underlying conditions of the global cement industry. Another major external influence at present is the low oil price, mainly affected by the oil producing cartel OPEC. HeidelbergCement said this week that it expects the oil price fall to have a positive impact on its profit in 2015. It makes 80% of its revenue in oil-importing countries, which should see reduced transport and production costs. This will result in improved economic conditions, higher levels of construction and hence cement production. For HeidelbergCement 2015 could be a case of costs down, sales up.

That surely sounds like good news, for some stagnant 'old' developed economies at least. However, in the world of 'new normals' it is the IMF that has sounded the biggest warning this week. It dropped its 2015 global economic growth forecast from 3.8% to 3.5%. As fuel prices slump, so too has inflation. In the EU this has resulted in deflationary pressures that could yet stump the recovery. Consumers (and construction firms alike) may go from a position of not being able to afford things, to not wanting to buy them. In the longer term, this may be yet more bad news for the cement sector in established markets.