Displaying items by tag: ICRA

India: Ratings agency ICRA says that the cement industry in India will reach a renewable energy reliance of 40% across its operations in the 2025 financial year. The Hitavada newspaper has reported that this will involve the construction of 537MW-worth of new renewable power capacity. During the 2023 financial year, which ended on 31 March 2023, producers used 35% renewable energy. ICRA said that they can expect to make costs savings of US$240m/yr from 2025 through the scale-up of renewables, including solar, wind and waste heat recovery. This would correspond to a 15 – 18% reduction of estimated energy costs for the 2025 financial year.

Over the same two-year period, ICRA forecast blended cements to rise to 81% of cement sales in the 2025 financial year, from 78% in the 2023 financial year.

Adani Group and JK Lakshmi Cement were reported to be leading the race to acquire Sanghi Cement this week. The Economic Times newspaper reported sources who said that both companies are about to start due diligence processes ahead of making formal offers in the next few months. The enterprise value of Gujarat-based Sanghi Cement is around US$730m. Shree Cement, Nirma Group and Dalmia Bharat were said to have been interested previously, but no longer at this stage. However, none of the companies involved have commented directly on any bidding process so far.

Coverage in the India-based press earlier in July 2023 suggested that Shree Cement had dropped out of the bidding process for a 40 - 70% stake in Sanghi Cement. Although the exact reasons for Shree Cement withdrawal were not expressed, it was noted that the enterprise value for Sanghi Cement included debts of around US$220m. In late 2022 the Kotak Mahindra Bank made an investment of around US$67m in Sanghi Cement to ‘help the company's liquidity profile and enhance its operations.’ The head of the bank’s Special Situations Fund added that the cement producer’s performance had been under pressure due to high energy costs and that this had been further exacerbated by impending debt repayments stemming from expansion capital expenditure.

Sanghi Cement had the misfortune of commissioning a new line at its integrated plant during the Covid-19 pandemic. The subsidiary of Sanghi Industries operates a 6.6Mt/yr unit at Kutch in Gujarat, with a 130MW captive power plant and a 13MW waste heat recovery (WHR) unit, making it one of the largest plants in the country. It also owns three cement terminals in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Goa. Its annual power and fuel costs rose by 79% year-on-year to US$49.9m in the year to March 2022. Then its finance costs tripled to US$29m in the year to March 2023. Some of the increased fuel costs may have been down to the new production line but its total income in the year to March 2023 was lower than in the year to March 2019.

Adani Group and JK Lakshmi Cement both operate plants in Gujarat. Adani Group runs one integrated and one grinding plant in the state via its Ambuja Cement subsidiary. JK Lakshmi Cement owns a grinding plant. A number of other companies additionally manufacture cement in the state. The biggest of these is the country’s largest cement producer, UltraTech Cement, with three integrated plants and two grinding ones in Gujarat. It would be a surprise if this company tried to buy a share of Sanghi Cement. One prominent India-based cement company that does not have a manufacturing presence in the state is Shree Cement. This made it a compelling candidate for the acquisition before it ruled itself out.

On the national stage, ratings agency ICRA’s June 2023 cement sector report forecast a ‘stable’ outlook for the sector, with cement volumes expected to grow by 7 - 8% in the 2024 financial year. This should be supported by the residential market and infrastructure projects. Crucially, it also noted that power and fuel costs, which peaked in the July - December 2022, eased in early 2023 and are anticipated to further soften in the 2024 financial year. The agency’s view was that this would help company earnings margins, but not to the levels seen in the five years prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This may be cold comfort for Sanghi Cement, but it may have implications for any bidding process.

Lastly, ICRA also warned of the weakening effects that El Niño could have on the monsoon season and, in turn, rural house building during this period. The weather has been a ‘hot’ topic globally this year, as various records have been broken. Yet on a day-to-day basis the weather can also affect the business of making and selling cement. ICRA’s concern was for the latter. An example of the former occurred in June 2023 when Cyclone Biporjoy caused disruption at Sanghi Cement’s Sanghipuram plant. The unit was shut down in mid-June 2023 to protect the staff. Some damage was reported and the plant reopened at the end of the month. Again, as with fuel prices, the weather may also play a part in the calculations of any company considering buying a stake in Sanghi Cement.

India: ICRA says that all-Indian cement production capacity will rise by 6% year-on-year to 610Mt/yr during the 2024 financial year. The ratings agency forecasts that the Indian cement industry will invest US$14.6bn over the four years up to the end of the 2027 financial year to expand its capacity by 26% to 725Mt/yr. The Financial Express newspaper has reported that costs of cement production fell in the second half of the 2023 financial year, which ended on 31 March 2023. The trend is expected to continue throughout the 2024 financial year. Meanwhile, ICRA has forecast domestic demand growth of 7 - 8% year-on-year in the 2024 financial year.

Further consolidation of the Indian cement sector looked closer this week with the news that Dalmia Bharat’s cement subsidiary has agreed to buy the remaining cement plants from Jaiprakash Associates. The US$685m deal covers cement and power plants in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. It includes clinker production capacity of 6.7Mt/yr, cement capacity of 9.4Mt/yr and 280MW of captive power capacity.

Chart 1: Map of Dalmia Bharat’s cement plants in November 2022 with region of proposed new plants highlighted in orange. Source: Adapted from Dalmia Bharat investor presentation.

The acquisition gives Dalmia Bharat the opportunity to draw level with Shree Cement in terms of cement production capacity. If the deal completes, then both cement companies will hold a capacity of around 46Mt/yr. This puts them behind UltraTech Cement and Adani Group nationally. In terms of the cost, the proposed acquisition works out at around US$73/t of cement capacity, although this doesn’t take into account the additional captive power generation capacity. This compares to US$119/t for UltraTech Cement’s purchase of Jaiprakash Associates plants in 2017 and US$97/t for Adani Group’s purchase of Holcim’s Indian-based business in September 2022.

Dalmia Bharat’s rationale for its move this week was that it wants to grow in the Central Region of the country and work towards a capacity target of 75Mt/yr by the 2027 financial year and at least 110Mt/yr by the 2031 one. It backed this up in an investors’ presentation by saying that cement consumption was around 170kg/capita locally and that the region represented about 15% of national demand at 54Mt/yr. This roughly checks out with regional integrated/clinker production capacity distribution analysis that Global Cement Weekly carried out in June 2022. Only the East region was lower, but this didn’t take into account grinding plants or new projects.

Completion of the agreement is planned by December 2023 and is subject to the usual regulatory approvals. However, readers may recall the difficulties UltraTech Cement had in the mid-2010s when it attempted to buy two plants from the subsidiary of Jaypee Group. Problems stemming from an amendment to the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) (MMDR) Act caused the original proposal to be rejected by the Bombay High Court in early 2016. UltraTech Cement bounced back though with a deal to buy far more plants instead. This deal completed successfully in mid-2017.

Jaypee Group’s debts have also caused problems along the way. Indeed, this is the reason why it has finally decided to leave the cement business altogether. In early December 2022 it reported its latest default on interest payments towards some of its loans. Overall its outstanding debt was US$3.39bn. Due in part to this, there have been plenty of stories in the local press over the last decade on whoever was reputedly buying the Jaypee Group’s cements assets. In October 2022, for example, Adani Group was reportedly in advanced talks to buy Jaypee Group’s remaining cement business until it denied it publicly. One deal that did reach fruition was Dalmia Bharat’s purchase of Bokaro Jaypee Cement back in 2014 from a joint-venture majority controlled by Jaypee Group. That agreement gave it full control of the 2.1Mt/yr Bokaro grinding plant in Jharkhand. Looking at the current proposed acquisition, one commentator from HDFC Securities in the local business press noted that detail on the transaction is lacking, such as what will happen to existing limestone reserves. Another pointed out that the deal was probably 30 – 40% below the replacement cost because the plants were old, lack of interest from potential buyers and due to the “likely need for additional CAPEX to run operations.”

If the Dalmia Bharat - Jaiprakash Associates deal completes then it marks the end of an era for the Indian cement industry as one of the big players bows out of the sector. It shows once more that, despite the mounting fuel and raw material costs in 2022, companies are still seeing big opportunities. In its December 2022 report, the ratings agency ICRA found that cement sales volumes grew by 11% year-on-year to 187Mt in the first half of the 2023 financial year. The acquisition might also, hopefully, put an end to the endless speculation about who Jaypee Group might be selling its cement plants to! Although, of course, the question then becomes who else might be considering divesting cement assets.

India: The Indian cement industry's sales volumes will rise by 18 - 20% year-on-year in the 2022 financial year and surpass 2020 financial year pre-Covid-19 outbreak levels by 6%, according to ratings agency ICRA. The Press Trust of India has reported that, in the first nine months of the 2022 financial year, fuel and electricity costs rose by 31%, raw materials costs by 12% and logistics costs by 5%. This offset a 5% net sales rise to result in an operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (OPBITDA) per tonne of cement of US$14.70/t, down by 10% year-on-year. ICRA forecast a further decline in full-year OPBITDA per tonne of 16 - 18% to US$13.50 - 13.80/t in the 2022 financial year.

India: Finance company ICRA reported all-India cement sales in the first half of the 2022 financial year of 124Mt, up by 22% year-on-year. Mint News has reported that the total value of cement sales rose by 5% in the period compared to the first half of the 2021 financial year. Producers’ raw materials costs rose by 16%, while power, coal and petcoke costs rose by 26% and freight costs rose by 7%. Granulated blast furnace slag (GBFS) and gypsum prices also rose.

ICRA corporate ratings assistant vice president and sector head Anupama Reddy said "Despite some easing in the cost-side pressures, the input costs are likely to remain elevated in the near term, and are expected to exert pressure on operating margins, which are likely to decline by 200 to 230 basis points (BPS) in the 2022 financial year as a whole. While the capacity additions are expected to increase year-on-year in the 2022 financial year, the reliance on debt is likely to be lower owing to the healthy cash generation and strong liquidity of the cement companies. The debt coverage metrics are expected to remain strong in the 2022 financial year."

India: The total new waste heat recovery (WHR) unit capacity of cement producers is expected to reach 175MW in the two years ending on 31 March 2022. Rating agency ICRA has valued the total investment in new WHR units over the period as up to US$230m, according to the Press Trust of India. A market report by ICRA reports that power generation using WHR costs around US$0.02/kWh compared to US$0.7/kWh from a captive coal power plant. Cement companies that replace 25% of total power capacity with WHR can potentially save around 15% from existing power costs.

India: Credit ratings agency ICRA expects cement demand to rise by 20% year-on-year in the 2022 Indian financial year, which starts in April 2021, allowing the local market to return to volumes previously seen before the coronavirus pandemic. In its latest report the credit ratings agency predicts that growth will be supported by rural demand, including affordable housing, and recovery in infrastructure segment, according to the Press Trust of India. Cement production capacity is forecast to increase by up to 22Mt compared to 17Mt in the previous year. Most of this additional capacity is expected to be in the eastern region. Capacity utilisation rates should recover to 64% from 56%.

India: Production capacity utilisation in the cement industry is expected to remain below 70% in the 2020 – 2021 financial year due to new plant projects in the next two years. Credit ratings agencies ICRA, India Ratings and Crisil all forecast relatively low demand for cement compared to a decade-high of 13% in the 2019 – 2020 period, according to the Press Trust of India. Cement production rose by 0.7% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2019 – 2020 period. However, production growth has hastened since then. The ratings agencies offer different outlooks on anticipated profits look forward.

The National Council for Cement and Building Materials (NCB) International Seminar is running this week in New Delhi and this gives us a good opportunity to take a snapshot at the world’s second largest cement industry.

Data from the Ministry of Commerce & Industry shows comfortable cement production growth of 4.4% year-on-year to 255Mt in the first nine months of 2019. As graph 1 shows there was higher production growth in 2018 but this followed a decline in 2017, due to partly to the government’s demonetisation policy. October 2019 confirms a trend of falling year-on-year growth from August 2019 onwards following a peak growth rate in mid-2017.

Graph 1: Indian cement production in the first nine months of the year, 2015 – 2019. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Graph 2: Year-on-year change in monthly Indian cement production, 2017 – October 2019. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Analysts like ICRA have blamed the growth slowdown on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. By region in the six months from April to September 2019 it noted a slowdown in demand due to slowing government projects in northern, eastern and central areas. Labour concerns were reported in the north, centre and Gujarat in the west. Raw material shortages were picked up on such as water in Maharashtra and sand in the east and Andhra Pradesh. Positive growth was reported in Kerala, driven by post-flood reconstruction and low-cost housing schemes, and in Karnataka due to general construction activity. Broadly, UltraTech Cement, the country’s largest cement producer, in its November 2019 investor’s presentation, agreed with this assessment. It noted growth in the northern region and declines elsewhere. Like ICRA it too picked up on low cost housing declaring it to be a ‘key cement consumption driver.’

Away from the figures the main news stories have been continued consolidation such as the auction for Emami Cement and UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Century Textiles and Industries. The sale of the former for plants in east and central regions has been linked to all the major local producers, including those owned by LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement. A report in the Hindu newspaper last week quoted a source placing UltraTech Cement and Nirma Group as the frontrunners with a valuation of around US$700m and an announcement at some point in December 2019. Despite UltraTech Cement’s market dominance nationally, its 17% production share in the east is low compared to its presence elsewhere. Nirma Group’s subsidiary Nuvoco Vistas is one of the smaller producers but, notably, it picked up Lafarge India’s assets in 2016.

Investment in new production capacity has continued with announcements from both JSW Cement and HeidelbergCement in recent weeks about expansion plans well into the mid-2020s. This follows planned projects from Dalmia Bharat Cement and Ramco Cement as well as orders from the JK Cement and Shree Cement. This ties into the capacity growth forecasts of around 120Mt over a similar timescale that the analysts were predicting in the middle of 2019. JM Financial, for example, pinned most of this growth on the south followed by the east and north. However, The India Cements said in November 2019 that it was delaying its expansion projects in Uttar Pradesh due to slowing government spending.

As is usual for a country with a low per capita cement consumption, on the national scale, one of the tensions in the Indian cement industry has been the balance between the capacity utilisation rate and the commissioning of new capacity. Its utilisation rate was below 60% in 2018 and a number of producers started reporting the negative effects of higher input and raw materials costs on their financial results. Knowing when to stop and start capacity growth is critical in this kind of environment. Specifically in India’s case curveballs such as government action on pollution and the country’s growing need for imports of coal as well as a burgeoning waste fuels sector are factors to keep an eye on. Finally, general trends such as UltraTech Cement’s focus on the Indian market, despite buying assets outside the country, are also compelling to watch as it chooses to concentrate on just one country. There are parallels here with other similarly-sized multinational that have also been focusing on core markets elsewhere in the globe.