Displaying items by tag: UltraTech Cement

It’s the end of the year so it’s time to look at trends in the sector news over the last 12 months. It’s also the end of a decade, so for a wider perspective check out the feature in the December 2019 issue of Global Cement Magazine. The map of shifting production capacity and the table of falling CO₂ emissions per tonne are awesome and inspiring in their own way. They also point towards the successes and dangers facing the industry in the next decade.

Back on 2019 here are some of the main themes of the year in the industry news. This is a selective list but if we missed anything crucial let us know.

European multinationals retreat

LafargeHolcim left the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, HeidelbergCement sold up in Ukraine and reduced its stake in Morocco and CRH is reportedly making plans to leave the Philippines and India, if local media speculation can be believed. To be fair to HeidelbergCement it has also instigated some key acquisitions here and there, but there definitely has been a feel of the multinationals cutting their losses in certain places and retreating that bit closer to their heartlands.

CRH’s chief executive officer Albert Manifold summed it up an earnings meeting when he said, “…you're faced with a capital allocation decision of investing in Europe or North America where you've got stability, certainty, overlap, capability, versus going for something a bit more exotic. The returns you need to generate to justify that higher level of risk are extraordinary and we just don't see it.”

The battle for the European Green Deal

One battle that’s happening right now is the lobbying behind the scenes for so-called energy-intensive industries in Europe as part of the forthcoming European Green Deal. The cement industry is very aware that it is walking a tightrope on this one. The European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) CO₂ price started to bite in 2019, hitting a high of Euro28/t in August 2019 and plant closures have been blamed on it. The rhetoric from Ursula von der Leyen, the new president of the European Commission, has been bullish on climate legislation and the agitation of Greta Thunberg internationally and groups like Extinction Rebellion has kept the issue in the press. Cembureau, the European Cement Association, is keen to promote the industry’s sustainability credentials but it is concerned that aspects of the proposed deal will create ‘uncertainty and risks.’ Get it wrong and problems like the incoming ban on refuse-derived fuel (RDF) imports into the Netherlands may proliferate. What the Green Deal ends up as could influence the European cement industry for decades.

The managed march of China

Last’s week article on a price spike in Henan province illustrated the tension in China between markets and government intervention. It looks like this was driven by an increase in infrastructure spending with cement sales starting to rise. Cement production growth has also picked up in most provinces in the first three quarters of 2019. This follows a slow fall in cement sales over the last five years as state measures such as consolidation and peak shifting have been implemented. The government dominates the Chinese market and this extends west, as waste importers have previously found out to their cost.

Meanwhile, the Chinese industry has continued to grow internationally. Rather than buying existing assets it has tended to build its own plants, often in joint ventures with junior local partners. LafargeHolcim may have left Indonesia in 2018 but perhaps the real story was Anhui Conch's becoming the country's third biggest producer by local capacity. Coupled with the Chinese dominance in the supplier market this has meant that most new plant projects around the world are either being built by a Chinese company or supplied by one.

India consolidates but watches dust levels

Consolidation has been the continued theme in the world's second largest cement industry, with the auction for Emami Cement and UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Century Textiles and Industries. Notably, UltraTech Cement has decided to focus its attention on only India despite the overseas assets it acquired previously. Growth in cement sales in the second half of 2019 has slowed and capacity utilisation rates remain low. Indian press reports that CRH is considering selling up. Together with the country's low per capita cement consumption this suggests a continued trend for consolidation for the time being.

Environmental regulations may also play a part in rationalising the local industry, as has already happened in China. The Indian government considered banning petcoke imports in 2018 in an attempt to decrease air pollution. Later, in mid-2019, a pilot emissions trading scheme (ETS) for particulate matter (PM) was launched in Surat, Gujarat. At the same time the state pollution boards have been getting tough with producers for breaching their limits.

Steady growth in the US

The US market has been a dependable one over the last year, generally propping up the balance sheets of the multinational producers. Cement shipments grew in the first eight months of the year with increases reported in the North-Eastern and Southern regions. Imports also mounted as the US-China trade war benefitted Turkey and Mexico at the expense of China. Alongside this a modest trade in cement plants has been going on with upgrades also underway. Ed Sullivan at the Portland Cement Association forecasts slowing growth in the early 2020s but he doesn’t think a recession is coming anytime soon.

Mixed picture in Latin America

There have been winners and losers south of the Rio Grande in 2019. Mexico was struggling with lower government infrastructure spending hitting cement sales volumes in the first half of the year although US threats to block exports haven’t come to pass so far. Far to the south Argentina’s economy has been holding the cement industry back leading to a 7% fall in cement sales in the first 11 months of the year. Both of these countries’ travails pale in comparison to Venezuela’s estimated capacity utilisation of just 12.5%. There have been bright spots in the region though with Brazil’s gradual return to growth in 2019. The November 2019 figures suggest sales growth of just under 4% for the year. Peru, meanwhile, continues to shine with continued production and sales growth.

North and south divide in Africa and the Middle East

The divide between the Middle East and North African (MENA) and Sub-Saharan regions has grown starker as more MENA countries have become cement exporters, particularly in North Africa. The economy in Turkey has held back the industry there and the sector has pivoted to exports, Egypt remains beset by overcapacity and Saudi Arabian producers have continued to renew their clinker export licences.

South of the Sahara key countries, including Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, have suffered from poor sales due to a variety of reasons, including competition and the local economies. Other countries with smaller cement industries have continued to propose and build new plants as the race to reduce the price of cement in the interior drives change.

Changes in shipping regulations

One of the warning signs that flashed up at the CemProspects conference this year was the uncertainty surrounding the new International Maritime Organistaion (IMO) 2020 environmental regulations for shipping. A meeting of commodity traders for fuels for the cement industry would be expected to be wary of this kind of thing. Their job is to minimise the risk of fluctuating fuel prices for their employers after all. Yet, given that the global cement industry produces too much cement, this has implications for the clinker and cement traders too. This could potentially affect the price of fuels, input materials and clinker if shipping patterns change. Ultimately, IMO 2020 comes down to enforcement but already ship operators have to decide whether and when to act.

Do androids dream of working in cement plants?

There’s a been a steady drip of digitisation stories in the sector news this year, from LafargeHolcim’s Industry 4.0 plan to Cemex’s various initiatives and more. At present the question appears to be: how far can Industry 4.0 / internet of things style developments go in a heavy industrial setting like cement? Will it just manage discrete parts of the process such as logistics and mills or could it end up controlling larger parts of the process? Work by companies like Petuum show that autonomous plant operation is happening but it’s still very uncertain whether the machines will replace us all in the 2020s.

On that cheery note - enjoy the winter break if you have one.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 8 January 2020

The National Council for Cement and Building Materials (NCB) International Seminar is running this week in New Delhi and this gives us a good opportunity to take a snapshot at the world’s second largest cement industry.

Data from the Ministry of Commerce & Industry shows comfortable cement production growth of 4.4% year-on-year to 255Mt in the first nine months of 2019. As graph 1 shows there was higher production growth in 2018 but this followed a decline in 2017, due to partly to the government’s demonetisation policy. October 2019 confirms a trend of falling year-on-year growth from August 2019 onwards following a peak growth rate in mid-2017.

Graph 1: Indian cement production in the first nine months of the year, 2015 – 2019. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Graph 2: Year-on-year change in monthly Indian cement production, 2017 – October 2019. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Analysts like ICRA have blamed the growth slowdown on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. By region in the six months from April to September 2019 it noted a slowdown in demand due to slowing government projects in northern, eastern and central areas. Labour concerns were reported in the north, centre and Gujarat in the west. Raw material shortages were picked up on such as water in Maharashtra and sand in the east and Andhra Pradesh. Positive growth was reported in Kerala, driven by post-flood reconstruction and low-cost housing schemes, and in Karnataka due to general construction activity. Broadly, UltraTech Cement, the country’s largest cement producer, in its November 2019 investor’s presentation, agreed with this assessment. It noted growth in the northern region and declines elsewhere. Like ICRA it too picked up on low cost housing declaring it to be a ‘key cement consumption driver.’

Away from the figures the main news stories have been continued consolidation such as the auction for Emami Cement and UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Century Textiles and Industries. The sale of the former for plants in east and central regions has been linked to all the major local producers, including those owned by LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement. A report in the Hindu newspaper last week quoted a source placing UltraTech Cement and Nirma Group as the frontrunners with a valuation of around US$700m and an announcement at some point in December 2019. Despite UltraTech Cement’s market dominance nationally, its 17% production share in the east is low compared to its presence elsewhere. Nirma Group’s subsidiary Nuvoco Vistas is one of the smaller producers but, notably, it picked up Lafarge India’s assets in 2016.

Investment in new production capacity has continued with announcements from both JSW Cement and HeidelbergCement in recent weeks about expansion plans well into the mid-2020s. This follows planned projects from Dalmia Bharat Cement and Ramco Cement as well as orders from the JK Cement and Shree Cement. This ties into the capacity growth forecasts of around 120Mt over a similar timescale that the analysts were predicting in the middle of 2019. JM Financial, for example, pinned most of this growth on the south followed by the east and north. However, The India Cements said in November 2019 that it was delaying its expansion projects in Uttar Pradesh due to slowing government spending.

As is usual for a country with a low per capita cement consumption, on the national scale, one of the tensions in the Indian cement industry has been the balance between the capacity utilisation rate and the commissioning of new capacity. Its utilisation rate was below 60% in 2018 and a number of producers started reporting the negative effects of higher input and raw materials costs on their financial results. Knowing when to stop and start capacity growth is critical in this kind of environment. Specifically in India’s case curveballs such as government action on pollution and the country’s growing need for imports of coal as well as a burgeoning waste fuels sector are factors to keep an eye on. Finally, general trends such as UltraTech Cement’s focus on the Indian market, despite buying assets outside the country, are also compelling to watch as it chooses to concentrate on just one country. There are parallels here with other similarly-sized multinational that have also been focusing on core markets elsewhere in the globe.

As most of the larger cement producers have released their financial results for the third quarter of 2019 it’s time to see how they are doing so far this year.

Graph 1: Revenue from major cement producers, Q1 - 3 2019. Source: Company reports.

Graph 2: Cement sales volumes by major cement producers, Q1 - 3 2019. Source: Company reports.

LafargeHolcim is looking good, with rises in both its net sales and earnings on a like-for-like basis. The sale of its assets in South-East Asia earlier in the year and in 2018 may have appeared to reduce its figures, but the like-for-like growth suggests that the strategy its working. This has been driven by markets in Europe and North America as its other big market, Asia, has continued to slide. The latter vindicates the group’s decision to partly leave the region, in the short term at least. It’s also interesting to note that at the macro-scale LafargeHolcim’s ready-mixed concrete (RMX) sales fell by 1.3% on a like-for-like basis to 7.4Mm³ in the first nine months of 2019. What does this mean for a building materials company that has been moving towards the whole supply chain and concrete?

Anhui Conch Cement reported cement and clinker sales volumes of 202Mt in the first half of 2019, a 42% year-on-year growth for the same period in 2018. Its revenue increased by 42% year-on-year to US$15.9bn in the first nine months of 2019 from US$11.1bn in the same period in 2018, putting it ahead of Germany’s HeidelbergCement in sales terms. The group was coy on how it actually managed to boost its sales so fast in a country where cement sales only rose by 5% in the first half of the year. Yet, it did admit to slowing sales growth in West China in the first half. A 5% fall in fuel and power costs no doubt helped its profit margins also. Notably, its overseas sales nearly doubled to US$143m in the first half of 2019 or 2% of its total revenue.

HeidelbergCement’s financials were solid, with growing revenue, earnings and profits. This was balanced by falling cement and clinker sales volumes. Cement sales fell in all group regions with the exception of North America. However, it was able to boast about ‘positive results in all group countries in the third quarter except for Egypt’s. Company head Bernd Scheifele summarised the sitaution by saying that, “price increases and strict cost discipline more than compensated for the slightly weaker demand for our products in the third quarter.”

Of the building materials companies with larger revenues, Cemex has had a tougher time of it so far in 2019 with declining sales, cement volumes and earnings. In part this has been due to a poor market in Mexico, although chief executive officer (CEO) Fernando A Gonzalez said that the group believed that weak demand for their products was ‘bottoming out’ and that a new infrastructure program made them hopeful looking forward. The group’s Middle East and Africa region also caused concern with a 3% drop in sales volumes in the Philippines, one of its key South-East Asian territories.

Things to note from the smaller producers featured here are as follows. India’s UltraTech Cement says it is the world’s third largest cement producer outside of China. With an installed production capacity of over 100Mt/yr in India this may well be the case. The vast majority of this is based at home in India. Alongside this, its financial figures seem buoyant as it continues to integrate new acquisitions such as Century Textiles and Industries into the business. By contrast Africa’s Dangote Cement has endured mixed fortunes so far 2019 with a modest rise in cement sales volumes and small drop in revenue and a larger decline in earnings in both Nigeria and operations elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa. At home this has been attributed to a subdued economy and elsewhere it has pointed to poor markets in South Africa, Zambia and Ethiopia. On the positive side though promotional marketing activity at home in Nigeria helped support an improved third quarter.

Summarising all of this is difficult given the very different nature of these large companies. Generally most of these companies are growing. One takeaway to consider is the emergence of two types of cement producer models at the top end: multinationals and large-local players. In recent years the rise of the large-local player has been a story mirroring the economic prominence of China and India. One can also see it in places like Indonesia and Brazil. The worry is that these kinds of companies are more exposed to regional economic risks than multinational ones. Yet in 2019 some multinational cement producers are also having problems. Whatever else happens, if fears of a new global recession come true, then these larger scale producer models will be tested, possibly to breaking point. 

With a good number of the financial results published by the non-Chinese multinational cement producers for the first half of 2019, it is now time for a roundup. Graphs 1 and 2 below lay some of the basics with the general sales revenue and cement production volume trends.

Graph 1: Sales revenues from large multinational cement producers in the first half of 2019 and 2018. Source: Company reports.

Graph 2: Cement sales volumes from large multinational cement producers in first half of 2019 and 2018. Source: Company reports.

This is only part of the picture as the larger companies had various complications. For example, LafargeHolcim’s apparent falling revenue and sales volumes is mainly due to its massive divestments in South-East Asia. On a like-for-like basis its sales and sales volumes of cement rose. Its recurring earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) better illustrated this with a rise of 7.2% year-on-year in real-terms to Euro2.41bn in the first half of 2019 from Euro2.25bn from 2018. The company didn’t have it all its own way though with falling cement sales volumes in Asia despite the divestment and poor growth in its Middle East Africa region.

By contrast HeidelbergCement reported growing sales but its earnings and profits were down. Its profit fell by 33% to Euro291m from Euro435m. This was blamed on the group’s sale of its Ukraine subsidiary in April 2019. The operations were sold to Overin Limited, part of Ukrainian investment company Concorde Capital Group, for Euro13m. HeidelbergCement said that the divestment resulted in a loss of Euro143m. Aside from this, as Bernd Scheifele, the chairman of the managing board of HeidelbergCement, explained, positives in markets in Asia, Western and Southern Europe compensated for weaker business in North America and the Africa-Eastern Mediterranean Basin Group area.

Cemex has a tougher time of it than its larger rivals due its greater reliance on American markets. Slow starts to infrastructure projects were blamed in Mexico, poor weather hit earnings in the US and problems occurred further south too. Luckily Europe was strong for the company with lots of good news areas. It wasn’t enough though as Cemex’s sales fell by 4% to US$6.72bn from US$7bn and its operating EBITDA dropped by 11% to US$1.21bn from US$1.36bn.

As for the other companies covered in the graphs, Buzzi Unicem and Titan Group prospered due to the US market. The former described its US activity as ‘lively.’ However, it admitted that its sales growth there was mainly caused by falling imports in the face of weak domestic demand and ‘considerable production and logistical difficulties’ in June 2019 caused by flooding of the Mississippi river. Titan, meanwhile, caught a well-deserved break after recent years with growth also in Greece and Southeastern Europe. Vicat managed to stave off a decline in sales due to poor markets in Turkey, Switzerland, Indian and West Africa through its acquisition of Brazil’s Ciplan in late 2018. Yet, its earnings and cement sales volumes fell anyway.

Dangote Cement once again suffered at home in Nigeria, while its Pan Africa business grew. Trouble at home was pinned on lower volumes, price discounting, higher input and distribution costs and higher fuel and power costs in the first half of 2019. Of more concern, earnings fell in Pan Africa too in the first half due to market conditions in South Africa and Zambia. As ever though Dangote Cement’s diversity in Sub-Saharan Africa should see it through. Finally, Semen Indonesia continued to ride high as its sales increased by 23% to US$1.17bn due to its absorption of LafargeHolcim’s assets. Unsurprisingly, its sales volumes grew at a similar rate, to just below 13Mt in the first five months of 2019. Yet trouble may be store ahead as its local sales fell by 7% in this period.

Other major producers omitted here include Ireland’s CRH and India’s UltraTech Cement. Both are set to release their results later in August 2019 and will make for essential reading as the market conditions so far in 2019 become clearer. The latter in particular will be worth watching if a report by Indian credit agency CARE Ratings out this week is correct. It has forecast production capacity growth of 120Mt by 2030 in India. UltraTech Cement is perfectly poised to benefit from this.

India: Kumar Mangalam Birla has been elected as the chairman of Century Textiles and Industries. The appointment follows the death of his grandfather Basant Kumar Birla early in July 2019. Kumar Mangalam Birla is the head of Aditya Birla Group, the owner of UltraTech Cement amongst other subsidiaries.

India: Basant Kumar Birla, chairman of BK Birla Group, has died at the age of 98 in Mumbai. He is survived by his grandson Kumar Mangalam Birla, the head of Aditya Birla Group, the owner of UltraTech Cement, amongst many other family members, according to the Times of India.

Part of the influential Birla family of industrialists, Basant Kumar Birla originally started working at Kesoram Industries before turning the business into a conglomerate with concerns in cement, engineering, medium-density fibreboards, pulp and paper, rayon, shipping, tyres, tea, chemicals and other sectors. BK Birla Group reported a turnover of US$2.4bn in the 2018 – 2019 financial year. At present the group now comprises five major companies - Kesoram Industries, Century Textiles & Industries, Century Enka, Mangalam Cement and ECE Industries - and several smaller subsidiaries.

Image of Basant Kumar Birla by Biswarup Ganguly CC BY 3.0

All the major multinational cement producers reported growing sales in 2018. Yet, the big growth was found outside of Europe, with China Resources Cement (CRC), Ultratech Cement and Dangote Cement all posting sales revenue growth of above 10%. Similarly, cement sales volumes continued to rise. CRC and Ultratech Cement were the standouts here, with the latter benefitting from its acquisitions including, most recently, Binani Cement. Concrete sales volumes were the same, rising for all the companies with the exception of Buzzi Unicem. It suffered market issues in Italy and Germany.

Graph 1: Sales revenue from selected multinational cement producers in 2017 and 2018 (Euro billions). Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 2: Cement sales volumes from selected multinational cement producers in 2017 and 2018 (Mt). Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 3: Ready-mixed concrete sales volumes from selected multinational concrete producers in 2017 and 2018 (Mm³). Source: Company financial reports.

With the major Chinese producers, including CNBM and Anhui Conch, yet to release their annual results for 2018, CRC is included in this roundup to give an idea of how that market is performing. Both CNBM and Anhui Conch have released profit alerts anticipating bumper results in 2018 though. This is likely due to boosted local cement prices.

The major story for the European-based producers was one of asset sales and debt reduction. LafargeHolcim returned to positive income in 2018 with a focus on its Strategy 2022 programme. HeidelbergCement’s earnings were hit by poor weather in the US and insufficient divestments. Cemex, although based in Mexico, retains a significant European presence and so it included here. It suffered from poor sales outside of its base in Mexico and the US. CRH continued on its trajectory as the world’s biggest building materials company with solid sales and earnings growth. Interestingly though given its expansion strategy in recent years CRH’s debt to earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBTIDA) ratio remains better than the other three majors above, even after its purchase of Ash Grove Cement in mid-2018 taken into account. Although other financial comparisons are worth considering, such as EBITDA margin.

Despite Cemex’s relatively high net debt compared to its peers it has been cutting its debt the fastest, at 8% to US$10.4bn in 2018. Its current plan is to reach an ‘investment-grade’ balance sheet by 2020. LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement are in ‘cuts’ mode leading to all sorts of speculation about where they might sell next. The wilder rumours in the press include preparations by LafargeHolcim to sell its entire operation in the Middle East and Africa. Similar tales about a sale in the Philippines are more credible but remain unconfirmed. HeidelbergCement is keeping its cards closer to its chest but poor performing territories that might be up for sale include some of its Italian plants and parts of Africa.

Of the larger producers without a European presence, Ultratech Cement has been negatively effected by energy costs during the nine months to the end of 2018 with its income and EBITDA down. Dangote Cement’s performance in 2018 was driven by sales at home in Nigeria although earnings elsewhere continued to grow.

With all of this in mind the scene appears set for a breakout by a major Chinese producer to buy a big bolt-on acquisition or expansion by regional or national players along the lines of that seen by Semen Indonesia or UltraTech Cement. Taiwan Cement has been ahead here with its purchase of a 40% stake in Turkey’s Oyak Cement but what we’re really waiting for is a majority position within a country or territory. At which point CNBM and the like will have earned its place in the 2019 version of this article. Perhaps the age of truly multinational cement producer is coming to an end as regional players become more prominent.

The UAE is having a moment. Over the last week Fujairah Natural Resources, a new entrant to cement, said it is going to build a clinker plant at Habbab in Fujairah. It’s also looking likely that Raysut Cement might buy UAE-based Fujairah Cement Company’s shares in Sohar Cement in Oman. Then, Ras Al Khaimah (RAK) Cement announced that it had purchased the Newtech cement plant. What’s happening here?

The last couple of years have been tough ones for Emirati cement producers, which have been fighting falling sales and beleaguered profits. The largest producer, Arkan Building Materials - a group majority controlled by the Abu Dhabi government, reported flat sales growth for the first nine months of 2018. It blamed this on falling sales of clinker due to imports from Iran and a tough pricing environment. Its profits were hit by rising clinker production costs due to its reliance on imported limestone from Oman whilst it resolves problems with its own local quarry. Arkan had closed its Emirates Cement plant in Al Ain following revenue and profit falls in 2016. This story thread reached its end earlier in February 2019 when Arkan sold the closed plant for around US$14m. National Cement reported a similar experience in its nine months results, with growing revenue but sales sapped by mounting costs.

Data from Riyad Capital in early-2018 suggested that the UAE only consumes about half of its own cement production. The rest is exported to the Middle East and North African region, particularly Oman and Egypt, and African countries. The country has 14 integrated cement plants with a production capacity of 31.4Mt/yr and eight grinding plants with a capacity of 10.4Mt/yr. These are owned by a mixture of local companies and multinationals.

The European producers still have a presence through LafargeHolcim’s Lafarge Emirates plant in Fujairah and a grinding plant run by Cemex. Although how long LafargeHolcim will remain seems uncertain given a report by Bloomberg earlier in February 2019 suggesting that the group is seriously looking at exiting the Middle East and Africa. Oman’s Raysut Cement holds a plant too via its Pioneer Cement subsidiary but the majority of the foreign-owned plants are Indian. Their presence has been steadily growing.

Aditya Birla/UltraTech Cement, JK Cement and Shree Cement all run plants in the UAE and JSW Cement said in mid-2018 that it was going to build a 1Mt/yr integrated plant in Fujairah. UltraTech Cement renamed its grinding plant UltraTech Nathdwara Cement in December 2018. This plant was formerly a Binani Cement plant and part of the rancorous bidding war between UltraTech Cement and Dalmia Bharat.

The background to all of this has been a country that is very willing to spend big on infrastructure projects when the need arises. Forbes reckoned, for example, that the UAE had awarded US$20.7bn on infrastructure projects in 2018 in the first nine months of 2018. Impending projects like the Expo 2020 are still generating construction activity and longer ones like Dubai Metro are in progress. However, the country is in a dynamic place geographically between the two-major economic and cement-producing powerhouses of Saudi Arabia and Iran. For the cement industry this explains the prominence of the grinding sector and the growing interest from Indian companies looking to expand overseas. For the new project and acquisition this week it’s looking more like local variation in the market at this stage. In this context though the fourth quarter results from local producers will make interesting reading to see if anything bigger is going on.

HeidelbergCement is set to release its third quarter financial results later this week. In the meantime what can the results from the other major cement producers tell us?

Graph 1: Revenue from major cement producers, Q1 -3 2018. Source: Company reports.

The biggest of the big beasts, China National Building Material (CNBM), released its third quarter update last week. As usual for a major Chinese producer it was the expected story of continuing double-digit growth. Operating income up, profit up and little other information besides.

CNBM’s half-year report back in August 2018 had more information, revealing that cement production volume fell by 5% year-on-year to 143Mt in the first half of 2018 from 150Mt in the same period in 2017. This was pinned on ‘flat’ demand, increased pressure on environmental protection and rising costs of fuel and raw materials. As we mentioned at the time the state-owned company is attempting to cope with the aftermath of China’s great construction boom. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data shows that local cement sales dropped by 8% year-on-year to 158Mt in the first nine months of 2018. CNBM’s cement sales are likely to have dropped also so far in 2018 but continuing industry consolidation and/or the merger with Sinoma may save them. With this in mind note the lack of sales volumes figures from CNBM and Anhui Conch in Graph 2 below.

Graph 2: Cement sales volumes by major cement producers, Q1 -3 2018. Source: Company reports.

Of the other larger Chinese producers, Anhui Conch’s third quarter report was similarly sparse, sticking to the facts (revenue and profit up) and discussing in more detail a recent large-scale sale and purchase agreement with Jiangsu Conch Building Materials with a value of up to around US$230m. China Resources Cement is typically more verbose in its results releases. Its turnover and profits are also up so far in 2018 but it actually explained that cement and clinker prices had risen by 32%.

Outside of China, LafargeHolcim’s results were mixed in a direct year-on-year comparison but more favourable on a like-for-like basis. Net sales and cement sales volumes are growing slowly but recurring earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell very slightly. Growth in Europe and North America was countered by issues in Asia Pacific, Latin America and Middle East Africa. Chief executive Jan Jenisch was more optimistic than at the same point in 2017 with no talk of ‘lacking potential’ and more emphasis on ‘positive momentum.’

As for the others, both Cemex and UltraTech Cement are looking good so far. Growth in Mexico and the US has bolstered Cemex’s performance giving, it a 7% year-on-year boost to US$10.9bn in the first nine months of 2018. Cement sales volumes grew more slowly at 3%, although operating EBITDA remained flat. Part of this was down to poorer markets south of Mexico, notably in Colombia. UltraTech Cement is still looking good after its acquisition of Jaiprakash Associates’ plants in 2017 but earnings and profits have started to decline. The Indian market leader has blamed this on mounting energy and logistics costs coupled with local currency depreciation effects.

So, in summary, generally good news from the big producers, although issues are present in certain markets, notably South America. HeidelbergCement has already set the scene for its third quarter results with a warning that its earnings are down due to poor weather in the US and rising energy costs. Sales volumes and revenue are said to be ‘within expectations.’ Its Indian subsidiary, HeidelbergCement India, reported storming figures for its half-year to the end of September 2018 with double-digit growth across sales, sales volumes and earnings. Less reassuringly, its larger Indonesian subsidiary reported falling sales for the first nine months of 2018. All eyes will be on HeidelbergCement later in the week to see how this plays out.

Earlier this year South Africa’s PPC commented on the drought facing Cape Town. It said that cement manufacturing was not water intensive, that its operations were ‘totally’ self-sufficient from its own surface water sources with capacity for several months and that it was working with the local government which viewed construction as an important economic sector. Point made!

Water conservation is an established part of the sustainability toolkit for cement producers. Yet recent weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere may also test how well companies are doing. Above average temperatures have been recorded this summer, in some places accompanied by unusually dry conditions. A news story this week about Cemex Colombia being fined for using water from a river shows one aspect of the problems that can face industrial users. Another story that we’ve covered previously has been the legal action taken against producers using water from a site near to the Katas Raj Temples in Pakistan.

Wet process cement manufacturing uses more water than dry process but even modern plants use water for cooling equipment and exhaust gases, in emission control systems such as wet scrubbers. In addition, quarrying and aggregate production may require water, and concrete production also needs water. Issues also arise with quarry dewatering and discharging water into rivers and the like. Global Cement Directory 2018 data indicates that, where known, about 10% of integrated cement plants still use a wet production method.

Graph 1: Specific water consumption by selected cement producers in 2017. Source: Corporate sustainability reports.

As Graph 1 shows there is some variation between the major cement producers with regards to how much water they use. They all operate with different types of equipment and production methods in different geographical locations so the difference between the companies is to be expected. A cement plant in northern Europe that normally experiences high levels of rainfall will have a different approach to water conservation than one, say, in a water stressed area like the Middle East. Incidentally, the definition used to define a water-stressed or scarce area is one where there is less than 1000m³/yr per person. One other point to note here is that each of the companies has a higher consumption figure than the 100 – 200L/t that the Cement Manufacturers' Association of the Philippines (CeMAP) reckoned that an average dry-process cement plant used when it was promoting water conservation back in 2013.

Looking at specific recent success stories, India’s UltraTech Cement reported a specific water consumption of 54L/t of clinker at its Star Cement plant in Dubai, UAE in 2016 – 2017 following a dedicated initiative at the site. An another milestone that UltraTech Cement was keen to point out in its last sustainability report was that three of 13 integrated plants had achieved water sufficiency though the use of the company’s 360° Water Management Model with its use of rainwater harvesting and recharging groundwater. These plants are not dependent on any groundwater or fresh water sources. The other larger cement producers all have similar water management schemes with reduction targets in place.

Climate change models generally predict hotter and wetter weather but changing weather patterns and growing populations are likely to impact upon water management and consumption. Given the integral nature of water in the cement production process, many cement producers have realised the importance of it and treat it as an input material like fuel or limestone. Hence the highlighting of water conservation in company sustainability reports over the last decade. The test for the success of these initiatives will be how producers cope in drought situations where they may be seen as being in competition with domestic users. Thankfully in PPC’s case, Cape Town avoided having to ration water to the general public, as the rains returned in the spring.