Global Cement News

This week Beijing announced that it would close the last of its four largest coal-fired power plants, the China Huaneng Group Corp's 845MW power plant, in 2016. The four coal-fired plants will be replaced by four gas-fired plants with 2.6 times more electricity capacity than the former coal plants. China's policy makers are also encouraging increased use of hydroelectric power, solar and wind and is trying to restart its nuclear power programme.

In the same week, the Independent reported that Costa Rica had achieved a renewable energy milestone, having used 100% renewable energy for the preceding 75 days. The achievement was reportedly made possible by heavy rainfall, which powered four hydroelectric plants. Costa Rica has an impressive track record when it comes to energy sources. In 2014, 80% of its energy came from hydropower and 10% came from geothermal energy. In total, 94% of its energy requirements were met by renewable energy.

However, this week we also heard that Dangote is building the world's biggest oil refinery, which will process 650,000b/day. It will also be Nigeria's first oil refinery. Aliko Dangote, owner of Dangote Group, decided to up the initial design from 450,000b/day because he believes that Nigeria, as a leading producer of crude oil, should also be credited with local refining capacity. Currently, Nigeria produces crude oil, but has to buy refined products from abroad. The refinery is expected to be fully operational by 2017.

Efforts to increase renewable energy should be strongly encouraged - the benefits to the planet and its population are undeniable. However, renewable energy technology has a way to go (if ever) before it can entirely replace fossil fuel-derived energy, which makes Dangote's investment a safe bet. As renewable energy like solar and wind power is entirely reliant on nature, supplies can never be assured.

While sporadic supplies to houses and small businesses may be part of the price we eventually have to pay for a greener world, larger businesses like supermarkets and cement plants, which could lose millions (or billions) from power outages, will surely have something to say, and a lot of sway, when it comes to relying completely on renewable energy. In addition, power outages to essential services like hospitals are unthinkable when it comes to the health of our loved ones. Ultimately, the argument for relying on renewable energy may well be won by utilitarians' 'greater good' argument, but how would it feel to know that your sick child could have been saved by fossil fuel-derived energy?

Europe: Lafarge has identified two potential chief executive candidates for LafargeHolcim, according to local media. Lafarge chief financial officer Jean-Jacques Gauthier and vice president Eric Olsen have both been named. The companies need to find a new chief executive after Holcim demanded a change to the initial agreement that would have installed Lafarge chief Bruno Lafont as head of LafargeHolcim.

In the UK there is an expression, coined by former Prime Minister Harold Wilson, that a 'week is a long time in politics.' While the week he was referring to has long since been forgotten, this refrain has since been repeated to the point of cliché by the mainstream media and is often used in the context of rapidly-changing political news stories. Regardless of its origin, this expression could well be used to accurately describe the current situation in France and Switzerland, where the past week has seen a number of serious and unpredictable developments in the preparation of the anticipated LafargeHolcim mega-merger.

Disgruntlement from 'those close to the deal' first surfaced as a 'wild rumour' a few weeks back but, in the past seven days, several of Holcim's shareholders, including the influential Thomas Schmidheiny, have questioned the contribution that can now be made by Lafarge. Holcim shareholders claim that the group has out-performed Lafarge in the 12 months since the deal was announced and they feel that this should be recognised financially. The abandonment of the Euro1.20 cap on the Swiss Franc by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) on 15 January 2015 has loaded the dice even further in Holcim's favour.

This is how the situation has deteriorated in the past seven days. Late last week, we had confirmation that Holcim was seeking to renegotiate the terms of the merger. On Monday we heard what at least part of those terms were, including an assertion that each Lafarge share was now worth just 0.875 of a Holcim share. Lafarge's main shareholders, accepting that their position was compromised to an extent, suggested that each Lafarge share was worth 0.93 of a Holcim share. Since then, it has become apparent that Bruno Lafont, the proposed leader of LafargeHolcim, has also put Holcim in a spin, as he is perceived to have presided over Lafarge's poorer performance.

Then, just yesterday, it was announced that the two current group boards had met separately in an attempt to arrive at new conditions with which to re-start negotiations. Commentators think that Holcim is holding all of the Aces but Lafarge has made it clear that it cannot accept a lower valuation and a CEO from Holcim. Discussions that take place 'in the dark' like this will do little to build confidence between the merging parties and infers that communication has become strained. There are twinges of antagonism in the releases that are not going to be solved by the boards sitting in separate rooms and whipping themselves into a frenzy.

Also caught up in this, like the child of a divorcing couple, is CRH. It only announced its purchase of Holcim and Lafarge divestments in February 2015. It stands to gain a joint Euro158m from Lafarge and Holcim if they fail to merge, but this will not make up for the loss of the many high-quality cement assets it otherwise stands to gain.

What will happen in the coming weeks? You have to be brave to predict how this will turn out, but our LinkedIn Group is a great place to discuss this rapidly-changing story. One thing we can be sure of is that there will be a lot to write about in another seven days. After all, a week is a long time in the cement industry!

Germany: The Supervisory Board of HeidelbergCement AG has amended the structure of its managing board with the addition of a new deputy chairman position. Dominik von Achten, managing board member in charge of the North America group, group purchasing and the competence centre materials, assumed the role on 1 February 2015. It was also announced that Bernd Scheifele would continue as chairman of the managing board for the next five years.

"HeidelbergCement is very glad that both Scheifele and von Achten, together with the management and employees of the company, will continue their successful work of the past years. This step will guarantee continuity in the years to come as well as a trusting and constructive cooperation between supervisory board and managing board," said Fritz-Jürgen Heckmann, chairman of the supervisory board.

HeidelbergCement has been reportedly showing interest in South Africa and Mozambique this week following the opening of new production capacity in West Africa. The Germany-based cement producer has beefed up its presence in the region with the inauguration of a 1.5Mt/yr clinker plant in in Togo and a 0.7Mt/yr grinding plant in neighbouring Burkina Faso. An additional 0.25Mt/yr grinding plant in the north of Togo is also planned for commissioning in late 2016. Other new projects in Africa include a new 0.8Mt/yr grinding plant in Tanzania that was commissioned in October 2014 and a new 0.8Mt/yr grinding mill at the Takoradi grinding plant in Ghana.

HeidelbergCement has repeatedly stated that it is considering production capacity expansions in other African countries. It currently operates in Ghana, Benin, Liberia, Tanzania, Sierra Leone, Togo, Burkina Faso and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Mostly it's a network of grinding plants with actual clinker producing plants in Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon and Togo. Its presence covers a band across central sub-Saharan Africa. Moving out of this zone into southern Africa would start to give HeidelbergCement a truly continental presence. However, from Dangote to PPC to Lafarge Africa other players are hard at work building their own cement empires.

The wild card here is how involved Chinese firms are in this process. Chinese companies like Jidong Development are building their own cement plants like the Mamba Cement plant in South Africa or Gweru in Zimbabwe, where upgrades are currently taking place. More commonly though Chinese companies like Sinoma are building new African cement plants such as a new PPC cement plant in the Democratic Republic of Congo or a new United Cement Company of Nigeria Limited (Unicem) cement line in Nigeria or several Dangote projects.

As part of the commissioning process for HeidelbergCement's new clinker plant in Togo, the Chengdu Design and Research Institute of Building Materials Industry (CDI, part of Sinoma) has emphasised that it will transfer the maintenance responsibility to local Togolese workers. The fact that the CDI's chairman made a point of saying this underlines tensions about both existing and changing international business influences in the region. Contrast this with the more sympathetic way in which Dangote's expansions in Africa that are portrayed by local media. Or look at this week's announcement by Egypt's ASEC Engineering and Management to help run a cement plant in Ethiopia. There is no need for calming statements from ASEC.

Finally, after all the discussion of the effect of oil prices on alternative fuels usage by cement producers it is worth noting what HeidelbergCement stated in its February 2015 trading statement. Principally, a drop in the price of oil is expected to present a positive impact on costs and market demand for the group. HeidelbergCement generates 86% of group earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) in net oil importing countries. In these places lower oil prices means potentially faster GDP growth and greater infrastructure spending. It is also worth considering the impact lower oil prices might have on the group's total oil and diesel bull of Euro250m/yr.

HeidelbergCement's full annual results for 2014 are due to be published on 19 March 2015. Maybe they will be more forthcoming about its intentions in Africa then.