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Indian inefficiency and China running out of options
Written by Peter Edwards
08 April 2015
The news this week that construction companies in the Indian state of Telengana are considering cement imports from China in order to circumvent a local dispute over cement prices highlights several issues. Firstly, state politics in India can create some interesting and not altogether logical situations. Secondly, it throws the spotlight on the changing situation in China, where the cement industry will be increasingly squeezed from all sides in the coming years. Thirdly, it shows that the global cement industry is exactly that – Global.
The first reaction when hearing of Chinese imports into India might reasonably be one of shock. How can it be that it is cheaper (21% less by local estimates) to import cement from 5500km away, into the world's second-largest cement producer, than it is to send it down the road from Andhra Pradesh? Overall, India is 'swimming in' excess cement capacity, which should make it cheap across the board. Large, well-run and efficient plants, coupled to current low diesel (transport) prices, should give the industry significant advantages on the international stage. So what's going on?
Poor local and national infrastructure is the 'obvious' culprit here, but it is only part of the story. The Telengana state government has imposed extra taxes on trucks bringing cement into the state from neighbouring Andhra Pradesh. By suggesting imports from China, it is possible that the Real Estate Developers' Associations of India (CREDAI) wants to make a point to the state government. Spotting a local imbalance of cement supply and demand, Telengana appears, in this instance, to have acted to make a quick buck. However, it has done so to the detriment of many other stakeholders. The extra tax deprives cement producers of higher sales, robs hauliers of business and stops the public getting a fair market price for cement. This highlights that India has not only physical infrastructure to build (in terms of highways and new railways), but also a more effective political infrastructure that can put aside state-on-state one-upmanship. This is a long-term task and not straightforward when you consider India's 1.25 billion inhabitants.
Of course the fact that China has been mentioned by CREDAI as a likely source of cement is far less surprising. The largest cement producer in the world has had excess capacity for several years now (regardless of who is supplying the statistics) and takes the opportunity to export whenever it can.
However, the sands are shifting under China at the moment. The country has not been able to rely on domestic demand to keep its over-inflated cement industry in business for many years now. It is indeed highly questionable whether it ever needed a cement industry the size of the one that it built.
Indeed, economic growth is slowing for the economy as a whole and this week there were even calls for the national housing bank to reduce interest rates for lower and middle income earners, effectively propping the sector up. This comes on top of tax breaks for home-buyers, which came in at the end of March 2015. Falling house prices have bred uncertainty and a lack of demand for new constructions and hence cement. Could China's absurd cement demand bubble finally be about to pop?
Whether or not the bubble pops next week or in a couple of years, the government has long been making preparations, in the cement sector at least. It has started to aggressively remove older and inefficient capacity, encourage cement exports and helped finance new plants overseas. China is changing its emphasis from cement production to cement plant project management. This is a good move, especially as there will be fewer opportunities for conventional exports in the coming years. Neighbouring Vietnam expects to have an incredible 20Mt of cement for export at less than US$50/t in 2015, flooding China's traditional sphere of influence. At the same time, the number of countries that are self-sufficient in terms of cement production are on the rise, meaning fewer importers.
Even opportunities for Chinese firms to build cement plants outside China are likely to become fewer and further between in the future. The most promising markets in Africa already have Chinese cement plants or cement plant projects, joined this week by Zambia. Chinese cement and cement engineering firms also have interests in Central Asia, Nepal, Mongolia and elsewhere. These markets, while promising, will have nothing like the potential to consume cement like China did in the recent past. As China reduces its capacity, its growing cement plant engineering sector may well find it hard to do enough business to survive...
Votorantim Cimentos increases investments 08 April 2015
Brazil: Votorantim Cimentos has announced a new investment package for 2015 – 2018. US$1.6bn will be invested in five new plants in Brazil, one in Turkey and one in Bolivia, as well as in the expansion and modernisation of existing plants. The announcement comes after an investment plan of US$3.2bn, completed in the period between 2007 - 2014, when the company expanded its global production capacity by 51%.
In Brazil, Votorantim's priority is to increase production in the central-north and northeast regions. It has identified growth potential in the construction sector and in cement consumption in those regions. Two of the new cement plants will begin operating in 2015, one in Edealina, Goiás and another in Primavera, Pará. In the second phase, the construction of two plants in Sobral and Pecém in Ceará is planned and one in Caaporã, Paraíba. The plants are expected to come on stream in the second half of 2017.
With its new plants, Votorantim will increase its cement production capacity in Brazil by 18%, adding about 6Mt/yr to the current capacity of 32Mt/yr of cement. The investments are in line with the company's preparation for a new cycle of growth in the country. "We are concentrating investments in attractive and profitable markets, always with long-term vision and thinking of the future market demand," said Walter Dissinger, Votorantim Cimentos' CEO.
In the Americas and Europe, investments include one cement plant in Yacuses, Bolivia in partnership with two other companies and one new plant in Turkey. The company is also considering the construction of a new plant in Morocco. In the US there is a project for the expansion of the Charlevoix plant in Michigan. "The American market is recovering and is also attractive," said Dissinger. The new projects outside of Brazil will add 2.5Mt/yr to the company's installed capacity. "We prepared ourselves to confront a challenging scenario in Brazil and follow our policy of thinking in the long term. Our discipline and financial solidity allows us to keep investing to be ready for the recovery of the markets," said Dissinger.
Lafarge to expand plant despite competition 08 April 2015
Zambia: Lafarge Zambia will begin work on the US$217m expansion of its cement plant in Lusaka in 2015 despite the recent opening of Dangote's cement plant in the country and slow regional economic growth.
Construction will start in the second half of 2015 and be completed in 2018, according to Emmanuel Rigaux, chief executive of the plant. The work will double Lafarge's cement production capacity to 2Mt/yr.
Lafarge's expansion and Dangote's new plant are not expected to cause a cement glut in Zambia, mainly because of demand from the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo. "The growth there is massive, in fact it's even higher than in Zambia," said Rigaux.
Chinese and Zambian officials also appear to be planning the construction of a cement plant in Zambia: Find story here.
Mexico: Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua (GCC) expects its sales growth to decline in 2015 after record revenues in 2014 as low oil prices constrict demand in the US, the company's top market. GCC treasurer Luis Carlos Arias said that after a nearly 20% sales spike in 2014, the company expects only single digit growth in the US in 2015, which accounts for about 70% of total sales. Demand in Mexico is expected to fall slightly.
Uwe Väth becomes vice president of operations at Schenck Process
Written by Global Cement staff
08 April 2015
Germany: Uwe Väth has assumed control over operations of the Schenck Process Group, effective 1 April 2015. In this role, he will be responsible for global manufacturing, supply chain and purchasing and will report to Andreas Evertz, president and CEO. At the same time, he will become joint managing director acting from the company headquarters of Schenck Process GmbH, which plays the leading and coordinating role for all European countries as well as Russia and parts of Africa. Uwe Väth comes from the accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers.
The appointment reflects the enormous importance of operations for the Schenck Process Group. In the future, Horst Klein will take on responsibility as the vice president of purchasing and thus ensure continuity and further development. In this capacity, he will report directly to Uwe Väth.
"Thanks to his comprehensive expertise and many years of experience in the area of operations, Väth will intensively drive the development of the Schenk Process Group forward. Through his activities as a consultant at PricewaterhouseCoopers, he has already gained insights into our company, meaning that both sides can seamlessly build upon this cooperation. I'm very pleased to welcome him as part of the management team," said Andreas Evertz.
As a graduate engineer, Uwe Väth worked at PricewaterhouseCoopers AG in Frankfurt am Main for many years, where he had been a partner since 2011. He had also built up the strategy and operations division and oversaw projects together with his teams in the areas of purchasing, supply chain, production and tool manufacturing, quality and logistics. International customers that are active in the areas of industrial production, process industry and plastics processing were catered to.