Analysis
Search Cement News
Update on Saudi Arabia
Written by Global Cement staff
06 November 2013
Demand for cement is so intense in Saudi Arabia that certain producers have reported production line shutdowns in dedicated stock market statements. Notably, industry newcomer Hail Cement reported a scheduled shutdown for late October/early November 2013, Al Jouf Cement reported unscheduled shutdowns in October and June 2013 and Najran Cement reported scheduled maintenance in July 2013. Even a short delay to cement production is a newsworthy event for both investors and analysts.
Saudi cement producers have risen to the infrastructure challenges of the country's Ninth Development Plan, increasing cement production by 6% year-on-year to 42.7Mt for the first nine months of 2013. In this febrile environment, the king ordered 10Mt of cement imports in April 2013 followed by government demands for producers to build up a two-month 'strategic' inventory reserve. Unsurprisingly, as we report this week, exports of cement from Saudi Arabia have fallen by 55% for the first nine months of 2013.
At the time of Global Cement's feature on Saudi Arabia in December 2012 only two of the country's cement producers had an inventory of joint clinker and cement stock meeting the government's stockpiling request. For the first nine months of 2013 the situation remains the same although the overall inventory has increased by 18% year-on-year to 10.3Mt. This compares to the end of 2012 where inventories fell year-on-year by 14% to 7Mt.
Unsurprisingly again, the Kingdom's major cement producers have seen balance sheets bulge so far in 2013. Yamama Cement reported a 12% year-on-year rise in net profit to US$145m for the first half of 2013 on the back of local demand. Saudi Cement Company reported a 5% year-on-year rise in its net profits to US$173m and Southern Province Cement saw a 4% year-on-year rise in its net profits to US$150m for the same period. Yanbu Cement saw its net profit rise by 29% year-on-year to US$176m for the first nine months of 2013.
With more large government infrastructure contracts pending, analysts expect the Saudi cement market to remain heated. Although as NCB Capital pointed out in September 2013, uncertainties over fuel supplies for coming cement plant expansions provide uncertainty to the situation. Nobody wants a repeat of the Yanbu - Aramco spat over fuel supplies that occurred in 2011. Irony would barely describe the situation if a Saudi Arabian cement boom was dented by a lack of fuel in one of the countries with the biggest oil reserves in the world.
Global Cement will be at stand T9 at the 18th Arab-International Cement Conference and Exhibition in Jordan from 11 – 13 November 2013
Made in Russia
Written by Global Cement staff
30 October 2013
Eurocement recently trumpeted the production of two new types of cement at its Podgorensky plant in Voronezh Region. A focus on standards follows a self-declared offensive being taken by the leading Russian cement producer against foreign imports since August 2013.
When the 3Mt/yr Podgorensky plant reached its full production capacity in July 2013, Eurocement president Mikhail Skorokhod gave a press conference to promote his products over the imports from Iran and Turkey. Some of the more humorous comments Skorokhod made to the press included suggesting that Iranian cement might be radioactive and the revelation that the title of Eurocement's in-house magazine, 'All Shades of Grey', might be inspired by an erotic novel with a similar name ('50 Shades of Grey').
More seriously, Russia's southern regions between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea are vulnerable to foreign imports. Both Turkey and Iran have high cement production capacities and they have access to the country via these two seas. In addition to rising housing construction in Russia since 2010, cement demand is expected to further take a boost from building associated with the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics and the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
As stated by Skorokhod, the Podgorensky cement plant was created to fight foreign imports. Hence the focus on standards and government approval. The cement types in question - TSEM I 52.5N and TSEM II/ A-Sh 42.5N - were certified by NIIMosstroy (the Moscow Construction Research Institute) with additional testing conducted by the Voronezh Regional Center for Hygiene and Epidemiology. The move was similar to attempts made in recent years by local producers in southern and eastern Africa to focus consumers' minds on quality versus the potential risks of low-cost imports.
Eurocement clearly wants to fight imports head on given that, according to CMPRO data, total cement imports to Russia nearly doubled from 2.8Mt in 2011 to 5.1Mt in 2012. Turkey, Belarus and Iran were the main importers in 2012. In 2012 cement imports as a percentage of consumption hit their highest level since 2008. At the same time Russian consumption of cement rose by 13% to 65Mt in 2012 from 58Mt in 2012.
Back in August 2013, Skorokhod said that the Podgorensky plant had cut imports to the southern ports. With no figures available yet for imports in 2013 we can only wait and see.
Global Cement Directory 2014
Written by Global Cement staff
23 October 2013
In the run-up to the publication of the Global Cement Directory 2014 we have released a Beta (draft) version for readers to provide corrections, clarifications or additions ahead of the final publication in late November 2013. In this week's issue of Global Cement Weekly we cover news stories on new cement plant or production upgrade plans in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Niger and Venezuela. This demonstrates how fast cement production can change around the world in just one week!
Looking at the major trends of the past year, we see a gradual re-emergence of 'developed' economies from the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 - 201? - with an increase in cement demand that is patchy in the extreme. The US cement market is starting to heat up - but it starts from a historically low base. Former superstars stars like Spain and Italy are still firmly in the Doldrums and show no sign of growing, countries that are becoming used to a painfully permanent lower cement demand.
India has suffered from over-capacity (whilst at the same time building even more capacity – one wonders how the industry still manages to make a profit). China's cement industry continues to defy gravity – partly through state support and partly through central edicts as to which plants will close (handily reducing nominal overcapacity) and which will stay open. Chinese cement plants have rapidly been installing environmental abatement equipment amidst an ongoing environmental crisis in China. It remains to be seen if China can avoid a 'hard landing.' Other Asian countries are progressing well a full 15 years after the Asian Crisis.
Africa continues to get its act together and could yet become a global cement demand powerhouse. South America shows strong promise, particularly Brazil. The Middle East is a perfect example of the old saying "Be careful what you wish for."
Download the Beta version of the Global Cement Directory 2014 (free download - registration required)
Short cuts and shutdowns
Written by Global Cement staff
16 October 2013
If you try visiting the website of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) this week you are going to be disappointed.
As part of the on-going US federal government shutdown the site has been marked as 'unavailable'. Anyone in search of US cement data and a raft of other national and international statistics will have to wait. Ditto the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Although its website is still live, its last tweet on 1 October 2013 was, 'The federal government is currently shut down.'
Some cement producers in the US may be relieved that the EPA is on a hiatus. However if you cast your mind back to the Portland Cement Associations' (PCA) optimistic growth forecast in September 2013 you may remember the following from PCA chief economist Ed Sullivan. "Assuming Congress has learned its lesson from the fiscal cliff and will take a more rational approach with the upcoming debt limit discussions, political uncertainty and its adverse impact on the economy is expected to dissipate."
Whoops.
The construction industry will be watching carefully to see how planned future infrastructure spending emerges from the debacle. If it gets cut in the horse-trading then US cement consumption growth will take a blow. Meanwhile, if the residential construction market takes a knock due to all the uncertainty and general reduction of money in the economy from federal employees not working then cement consumption gets hit immediately. Hence Sullivan's get-out comments about Congress.
Perhaps what will really concentrate minds on the fragile state of the US construction economy is if a Chinese company buys into the cement industry, as is happening elsewhere around the world. As reported this week, the state-owned Chinese aerospace and defence company AVIC International made an offer to shareholders to take over German cement plant builder KHD Humboldt Wedag.
The US federal government needs to get back to work.
UK Competition Commission talks tough
Written by Global Cement staff
09 October 2013
Well, it seems like they were serious.
The UK Competition Commission has provisionally decided that Lafarge Tarmac should sell off one of its cement plants in the Midlands. The Commission also wants the sale to exclude buyers from any pre-existing UK cement producer. The door is open from Holcim or CRH downwards to enter the UK market. Although if the enforced Lafarge sale of Hope to Mittal Investments in 2012 is indicative, it may well be to an industry outsider.
If the move goes ahead it will open up the Midlands and north of England from four cement producers - Hope Cement, Lafarge Tarmac, Hanson and Cemex - to five. Lafarge Tarmac's cement production capacity lead of nearly 4Mt/yr will be knocked down to nearer 3Mt/yr, putting it level with Hanson Cement's production capacity.
Unsurprisingly Lafarge Tarmac is not best pleased, putting out the following in response to the commission's announcement. "The Commission's assumptions and reasoning have serious flaws and the biggest loser in this process will be the customer. There is strong evidence to demonstrate there is effective competition in the sector – with new players having recently entered the marketplace."
The Commission also wants to increase competition in the supply chain for ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS). According to the Commission findings Hanson dominates the UK GGBS market and Lafarge Tarmac controls the market for its precursor, granulated blast furnace slag (GBS). So production facilities may need to be sold by both Hanson and Lafarge Tarmac.
As an aside it's worth noting that the Belgian Competition Council recently imposed fines due to anti-competitive practices also related to GGBS. Also, elsewhere in the news this week Irish GGBS cement producer Ecocem is aligning itself with the EU carbon roadmap to 2050, partly at least because its product produces less CO2 per tonne of cement. Whoever or whatever controls the supply of GGBS in the UK has implications for how emissions are lowered in the cement sector.
Other suggested measures from the Commission such as restricting the publication of UK cement market data seem problematic. Although it may make it more difficult for UK cement producers to collude it will also make it harder for related businesses (including press and industry analysts like Global Cement) to understand what is happening at any given time.
Finally, we have to ask what the effects of the Commission's suggestions might be at the start of an uncertain recovery in the UK construction market might be. According to the Minerals Production Association cement production fell from 8.5Mt in 2011 to 8Mt in 2012, the first decrease since 2009. 2013 seems set for modest growth on 2012. The implications of Commission's plans - if they happen – could be huge.