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Clinker is the new gold in Kenya
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
08 May 2024
Kenya-based East African Portland Cement (EAPCC) made the news this week with the reopening of the company’s Athi River cement plant after a month-long shutdown. The closure was conspicuous because the company is gradually working towards increasing the integrated plant’s production capacity. The first phase of the maintenance and upgrade project saw the replacement of the production line’s kiln shell in September 2022. The current aim is to increase the unit’s cement production capacity to 1Mt/yr by mid-2026. The recent shutdown appears to have been a more normal annual renewal and repair job but EAPCC has used it as a promotional opportunity. Notably, a spokesperson for EAPCC described clinker as the “new gold” in a recent video explaining what was going on.
It’s an improvement on the financial trouble EAPC found itself stuck within in the late 2010s before the government ended up taking a controlling share in the cement producer. On this front local media reported in July 2023 that the government had found a 'strategic investor' to buy a 30% stake in the company. Nothing more has been said on this topic since then though.
The highlighting of the recent shutdown is likely to be a public relations exercise intended to project stability, but that focus on clinker is telling given that the government introduced its Export and Investment Promotion Levy in July 2023. This legislation imposed a 17.5% fee on imported clinker in order to encourage the local industry. Cement producers that rely on imported clinker - including Rai Cement, Bamburi Cement, Savannah Cement, Ndovu Cement and Riftcot - attempted to lobby against the levy but it remains in place. This business environment helps to explain EAPCC’s renewed focus on clinker production.
One company that stands to benefit from the levy is National Cement, producer of the Simba Cement brand and a subsidiary of Devki Group. It made the news at the start of April 2024 when its subsidiary Cemtech commissioned a 6000t/day clinker plant at Sebit in West Pokot. National Cement already operates an integrated plant near Athi River, south of Nairobi. However, hot on the heels of the West Pokot plant, it is already considering building another integrated plant in the north of Kitui County, to the east of Nairobi. As reported in the local press this week, Cemtech has submitted an environmental impact assessment for the project to the local authorities.
The country has two other clinker producers: Holcim subsidiary Bamburi Cement and Mombasa Cement. The former company announced at the end of 2023 that it had signed a contract to build solar plants at its integrated plant in Mombasa and its grinding plant in Nairobi. The deal was framed as a money saver but additionally it may have been in response to a less than reliable local grid. It also said that it was removing Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) from its product line from the start of 2024. This move challenged expectations about sustainability initiatives outside of richer countries. Yet, considering how Bamburi Cement argued against the clinker levy, there might have been some commercial thinking here too in order to sell products that use less clinker. Finally, despite completing its divestment of Uganda-based subsidiary Hima Cement for US$84m in March 2024, Bamburi Cement reported a loss of US$2.99m in 2023 compared to a profit of US$1.36m in 2022. Although it reported a rise in turnover and operating profit, it appears that taxes and legal costs related to the sale of Hima dragged the company into a loss.
Graph 1: Rolling annual cement production in Kenya, 2019 - September 2023. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).
It’s been a difficult business environment in Kenya over the last decade given the number of companies that have faced serious financial difficulties. This list includes ARM Cement, EAPCC and Savannah Cement. The last of these companies, Savannah Cement, is currently in administration and is trying to sell its integrated plant. Yet, rolling annual cement production in Kenya has remained above 9.5Mt/yr since early 2022. The government is sticking to promoting local clinker production, and companies like Bamburi Cement, EAPCC and National Cement are making investments of varying scales. The focus, for now at least, is on clinker production in Kenya.
Cemex sells in the Philippines
Written by David Perilli
01 May 2024
Cemex announced this week that it is preparing to sells its operations in the Philippines to a consortium comprising Dacon, DMCI Holdings and Semirara Mining & Power. Rumours of the divestment first started to appear in the media in February 2024.
The main part of the deal covers Cemex’s cement subsidiaries, APO Cement and Solid Cement, which have been valued at an enterprise value of US$660m. However, this becomes confusing because the actual selling price is the enterprise value minus the net debt and adjusted for the minority shareholding of one of the parent companies, Cement Holdings Philippines (CHP). The deal also includes the sale of a 40% stake in APO Land & Quarry and Island Quarry and Aggregates. Based on a press release issued by CHP to the Philippine Stock Exchange, the actual cost of the divestment appears to be around US$305m. It is hoped that the divestment will complete by the end of 2024 subject to regulatory approval from the Philippines Competition Commission and other bodies.
Cemex entered the market in 1997 when it acquired a minority stake in Rizal Cement. It then built the business up to a cement production capacity of 5.7Mt/yr from its two main integrated plants, the Solid Cement plant in Antipolo City, Rizal and the APO Cement plant in Naga, Cebu. However, CHP has endured a hard time of late, with falling annual operating earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) since 2019 and falling net sales in 2022 and 2020. The bad news continued into 2023, with net sales falling by 17% year-on-year to US$300m in 2023 from US$356m in 2022. It reported a loss of US$35m in 2023, double that of 2022. The company blamed the fall in sales on lower volumes. It noted that prices were also down and energy costs had grown.
The three companies buying CHP are all controlled by the Consunji family so effectively DMCI Holdings is acquiring Cemex’s operations in the Philippines. The group focuses on construction, real state, energy, mining and water distribution. It previously announced in the late 2010s plans to build one integrated cement plant on Semirara and three cement grinding plants at Batangas, Iloilo and Zamboanga but these plans didn’t seem to go anywhere. Later it was linked to the proposed Holcim Philippines sale in 2019, although the subsidiary of Holcim eventually gave up on the idea.
This latest attempt to enter the cement business underlines DMCI Holdings’ intent and the group has immediately started saying what it plans to do next. In a statement chair and president Isidro A Consunji admitted that cement demand in the country was ‘soft’ but that it is expected to rebound due to the Build Better More national infrastructure program and an anticipated fall in internet rates. Consunji added, “We recognise CHP's operational and financial issues, but we are positive that we can turn it around by 2025 because of its ongoing capacity expansion and the clear synergies it brings to our group.” He was also keen to play up that CHP is currently building a new 1.5Mt/yr production line at its Solid Cement plant with commissioning scheduled by September 2024. DMCI plans to reduce CHP’s costs through various synergies including supplying it coal, electricity and fly ash from Semirara Mining & Power.
The acquisition of CHP by DMCI Holdings is the biggest shake-up in the local cement sector in a while. DMCI has long harboured ambitions in heavy building materials and now it’s close to becoming a reality. As evidenced by its statements following the official announcement of the deal it is already thinking ahead publicly to soothe shareholder concerns. What will be interesting to watch here is whether it can actually pull it off and whether it will face trouble from imports. Readers may recall that the Philippines cement sector has long battled overseas imports, particularly from Vietnam. Despite anti-dumping tariffs though the Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines (CEMAP) warned in January 2024 that workers could be laid off due to continued competition from imports. Good luck to DMCI.
Update on Pakistan, April 2024
Written by Jacob Winskell, Global Cement
24 April 2024
Changes are underway in South Asia’s second largest cement sector, with two legal developments that affect the industry set in motion in the past week. At a national level, the Competition Commission of Pakistan recommended that the government require cement producers to include production and expiry dates on the labels of bagged cement. Meanwhile, in Pakistan’s largest province, Punjab, a new law tightened procedures around the establishment and expansion of cement plants. At the same time, the country’s cement producers began to publish their financial results for the first nine months of the 2024 financial year (FY2024).
During the nine-month period up to 31 March 2024, the Pakistani cement industry sold 34.5Mt of cement, up by 3% year-on-year. Producers have responded to the growth with capacity expansions, including the launch of the new 1.3Mt/yr Line 3 of Attock Cement’s Hub cement plant in Balochistan on 17 April 2023. China-based contractor Hefei Cement Research & Design executed the project, including installation of a Loesche LM 56.3+3 CS vertical roller mill, giving the Hub plant a new, expanded capacity of 3Mt/yr.
Pressure has eased on the operating costs of Pakistani cement production, as inflation slowed and the country received a new government in March 2024, following political unrest in 2022 and 2023. Coal prices also settled back to 2019 levels, after prolonged agitation. Pakistan Today News reported the value of future coal supply contracts as US$93/t for June 2024, down by 2% over six months from US$95/t for January 2024.
Nonetheless, cost optimisation remained a ‘strong focus’ in the growth strategy of Fauji Cement, which switched to using local and Afghan coal at its plants during the past nine months. Its reliance on captive power rose to 60% of consumption, thanks to its commissioning of new waste heat recovery and solar power capacity. During the first nine months of FY2024, the company’s year-on-year sales growth of 14% narrowly offset cost growth of 13%, leaving it with net profit growth of 1%.
Looking more closely, the latest sales data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) shows a stark divergence within cement producers’ markets. While exports recorded 68% year-on-year growth to 5.1Mt, domestic sales fell, by 4% to 29.4Mt. The association further breaks down Pakistani cement sales data into South Pakistan (Balochistan and Sindh) and North Pakistan (all other regions). Domestic sales dropped most sharply in South Pakistan, by 6% to 5.16Mt. In the North, they dropped by 3% to 24.2Mt. Part of the reason was a high base of comparison, following flooding-related reconstruction work nationally during the 2023 financial year. Meanwhile, the government finished rolling out track-and-trace on all cement despatches during the opening months of the current financial year, and commenced the implementation of axle load requirements for cement trucks. APCMA flagged both policies as potentially disruptive to its members’ domestic deliveries, amid a strong infrastructure project pipeline.
Pakistani producers suffer from overcapacity, but have established themselves as an important force in the global export market. They continue to locate new markets, including the UK in January 2024. Lucky Cement was among leading exporters overall, with a large share of its orders originating from Africa.
On 17 April 2024, the government of Punjab province set up a committee to assess new proposed cement projects, with the ultimate goal of conserving water. Falling water tables are considered a significant economic threat in agricultural Punjab. Besides completing an inspection by the new committee, proposed projects must also secure clearance from six different provincial government departments and the local government. While acknowledging the necessity of the cement industry, the government insisted that it will take legal action against any cement plant that exceeds water allowances.
Pakistan’s cement plants have grown in anticipation of a local market boom. Without this strong core of sales, underutilisation will remain troublesome, especially in North Pakistan where exposure is highest. At the same time, APCMA has given expression to the perceived lack of support affecting production and distribution. For an industry with expansionist aims, new restrictions on its growth and operations can feel like an existential menace.
- Pakistan
- Analysis
- market
- Overcapacity
- oversupply
- Expansion
- growth
- costs
- Coal
- inflation
- economy
- Government
- politics
- Loesche
- Lucky Cement
- Hefei Cement Research & Design Institute
- Attock Cement
- UK
- Africa
- Export
- demand
- Consumption
- Sales
- trade
- Regulations
- Water
- All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association
- APCMA
- GCW656
- Belt and Road
- data
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- despatches
What happened to Tianrui Cement?
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
17 April 2024
The stock market price of Tianrui Cement crashed by a staggering 99% last week. On 9 April 2024, during the last 15 minutes of trading at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the price of shares in the company dropped from around US$0.64 to below US$0.01. Its market capitalisation swung from US$1.8bn to US$18m in a quarter of an hour. The cement producer then suspended trading shares the following morning. It said trading would remain halted until it made a formal announcement about the situation. At the time of writing that announcement is still forthcoming. The question on everyone’s minds is, “What happened?!”
On its website Tianrui Cement describes itself as “one of the 12 national cement enterprises supported by the Chinese government.” It is part of Tianrui Group and it listed itself on the Hong Kong Exchange in late 2011. By the end of 2020 it had 22 clinker production lines and 59 cement grinding units with a total cement production capacity of just under 58Mt/yr. It describes itself as the “leading clinker producer in Henan and Liaoning Provinces” and the ninth biggest clinker producer by capacity in the country.
Unfortunately, as reported by Global Cement Weekly earlier in April 2024, the cement market in China was tough in 2023. This has continued into the first quarter of 2024 with cement output falling by 12% year-on-year to 337Mt. Tianrui Cement, like many other China-based cement producers, reported falling sales and profits in 2023. Its revenue decreased by 29% year-on-year to US$1.09bn from US$1.58bn and it made a loss of US$87.6m compared to a profit of US$62m. Its cement sales volumes fell by 9% to 25.2Mt and it noted that the average price also fell by 22%. It blamed the fall in revenue on the lower volumes and prices. Profits and earnings suffered in turn as it couldn’t cut its costs fast enough.
Aside from the general poor state of the property market in China there has been little information about what actually happened to Tianrui Cement on 9 April 2024. Reuters reported speculation amongst financial sources that the company may have become subject to a margin call. In this situation an investor that has borrowed money to invest in shares has to provide additional funds if the value of the shares fall below a certain point. Bloomberg said that the controlling shareholder Li Liufa and his spouse jointly own approximately 70% of the company. It noted the risks of companies with a high concentration of shareholders and those that use shares as debt collateral. In this situation a large sale of shares could potentially trigger a panic as there might not be enough buyers.
Within China the Financial Associated Press (CLS) reported that three other companies listed on the Hong Kong Exchange had also experienced severe stock market volatility at the same time as Tianrui Cement. None of these other companies are in the building materials sector. Following the drop in its share price, Tianrui Cement told local media that the company was operating normally. Its spokesperson wondered whether the plunge in share value was due to small shareholders selling up. Coverage of local media by the China Cement Association explored the theory that the market was jittery about the poor state of the cement industry in China. Suspicions about the company’s debt structure were also raised.
From a western point of view the meteoric rise of the cement industry in China over the last 20 years has always carried the fear of a hard landing once the period of growth ended. The trick for the government and cement manufacturing is how to transition to lower levels of cement production without causing a recession. So, extreme stock volatility for a major cement producer in China is exactly what a cynical external observer might expect. China has a couple of exit routes up its sleeve though from the state-controlled nature of its economy, to how it approaches its net zero commitments, to the unreliability of its data, to exporting production capacity overseas and so on. This leaves us waiting to see what Tianrui Cement has to say to the market about what happened and what happens next. One share price crash for a cement producer might be forgivable. Two, however, might be seen as a sign of something else.
Update on France, April 2024
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
10 April 2024
Heidelberg Materials announced this week that it is preparing to close its integrated cement plants at Beffes and Villiers-au-Bouin in France by October 2025. It framed the restructuring as a response to ‘a significant decline in cement sales in France’ and a plan to focus on low-carbon products. Unfortunately, local media reported that around 170 jobs will be lost at the two sites. The company says it is looking at ‘socially acceptable solutions’ including redeployment to other locations in the country.
Investment has been forthcoming from Heidelberg Materials France in recent years. It reminded everyone that it initiated a Euro400m scheme at its France-based subsidiary Ciments Calcia in late 2020. Most of this was earmarked towards a new production line at the Airvault plant, which is currently being built. Other schemes at the Beaucaire, Bussac-Forêt and Couvrot integrated plants followed. More recently, Heidelberg Materials launched a carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) project at Airvault, part of the GOCO2 initiative, with the aim of starting initial capture in 2030 with full 1Mt/yr capture planned later. What the company didn’t mention though was at the time of that 2020 investment it was also preparing to convert the integrated Gargenville plant into a grinding unit, stop white cement production at its Cruas plant with the intention of turning the site into a terminal and it wanted to reduce its workforce by around 140. To be fair to Heidelberg Materials though, it did have the same goal of reducing its specific net CO2 emissions. The added detail this week was that the group aims to generate half of its revenue from sustainable products that are either low-carbon or circular by 2030.
Heidelberg Materials France is not alone with its ambitions for low-carbon products. Holcim notably opened in early 2023 what it said was the first calcined clay unit in Europe at its Saint-Pierre-la-Cour cement plant. Heidelberg Materials then followed in May 2023 with the announcement of a calcined clay project at its Bussac-Forêt cement plant. Other clay projects from Vicat, NeoCem and Neo-Eco have been reported since then. The other prominent France-based blended cement producer that has steadily been building its business in recent years is Hoffmann Green Cement. More general plant upgrade projects that are also worth mentioning include Eqiom’s (CRH) upgrade to its Lumbres plant in February 2024 and the ignition of a new kiln at Lafarge France’s Martres-Tolosane plant in October 2023. Both of these projects have been framed as driving sustainability.
Graph 1: Cement production in France, 2014 - 2022. Source: France Ciment.
Heidelberg Materials’ assessment about the poor state of the cement market has been confirmed by local media. Sales reportedly started falling in 2022, were down by 6% year-on-year in 2023 and further downward pressure is expected in 2024. Production data shown in Graph 1 above released by France Ciment, the national cement association, doesn’t really show what has been happening with sales. Over the last 20 years production hit a high of around 22Mt in the mid-2000s before settling around 16 - 17Mt/yr from 2015 onwards. The more telling trend, perhaps, has been the increase in CEM II blended cements from 50% in 2012 to 64% in 2022. Cement production may have stayed roughly the same over the last decade but it is using less clinker than it used to. Hence the pressure on companies like Ciments Calcia to reduce clinker capacity.
A further cost pressure facing cement producers in France is the impending end to the price cap on electricity scheduled by the end of 2025. The government enacted the scheme in late 2021 at the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, but then carried on as energy prices spiked following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. France Ciment lobbied in August 2023 for further protection for the sector using the argument that decarbonisation was not possible without electricity available for a reasonable price. It added that decarbonising the cement sector in France with carbon capture would cost around Euro3.5bn. Electricity prices started rising in February 2024 as part of the government’s phase out of the scheme.
Finally, 17 people were arrested on 5 April 2024 in connection with a demonstration at Lafarge France’s Val-de-Reuil ready-mixed concrete plant in Eure. Environmental activists reportedly trespassed on the site, according to local press, causing an estimated Euro450,000 in damages with acts such as spraying foam into machinery, ripping up bags of cement, breaking windows and more. The activists presented their actions as a response to both the environmental impact of cement and concrete production and the ongoing legal allegations about Lafarge’s actions in Syria in the early 2010s. Lafarge France’s La Malle integrated plant was also similarly targeted in December 2022 when around 200 activists stormed the site and caused damage to machinery and property. Lafarge’s response at the time was to remark that there was a feeling of misunderstanding given that the La Malle plant was piloting various decarbonisation methods.
All of this presents a febrile picture of the cement sector in France. Sales are down, electricity costs are set to go up and producers are switching to low-carbon cement products. Alongside this they are also closing clinker production plants but are also investing in new decarbonisation projects. At the same time environmental protestors have also been targeting cement and concrete plants and Lafarge’s association with its former actions in Syria appear to have made it more of a target than the other manufacturers. It is unsurprising then that Holcim, the parent company of Lafarge France, has raised the risk of damage to the group’s reputation, with both the general public and investors, should it fail to meet its targets. Reaching net zero was never going to be easy but setting unrealistic targets is increasingly not an option.
- France
- Heidelberg Materials France
- Heidelberg Materials
- Plant
- Closure
- carbon capture, utilisation & storage
- grinding plant
- Calcined Clay
- Lafarge France
- Holcim
- Eqiom
- CRH
- VICAT
- NeoCem
- NeoEco
- Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies
- France Ciment
- blended cement
- Ciments Calcia
- GCW654
- Electricity
- Protest
- target