Displaying items by tag: Coal
Turkish coal imports, March 2022
09 March 2022Türkçimento’s Volkan Bozay took to the airwaves last week to raise the issues that the war in Ukraine is causing for Turkey-based cement producers. The head of the Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association explained, to the local Bloomberg HT channel, that the dramatic jump in the price of Newcastle Coal posed a serious threat to the sector. The price jumped nearly US$100/t in a single day in early March 2022. Bozay said that the cost of cement from a plant using imported coal would consequently rise by around US$15/t. He added that the association’s members had an average of 15 – 20 days of coal stocks.
Graph 1: Price of coal, March 2020 – March 2021. Source: Trading Economics.
In a separate press release Türkçimento revealed that Turkey, as a whole, imported approximately US$1.5bn of coal from Russia in 2021. The cement industry imported about 5Mt of coal in 2021, from all sources, although the majority of this came from Russia. Coal shipments from Russia since the start of the war were reported as ‘very limited or even not possible.’ It was further explained that each US$10/t increase in the price of coal put up plant production costs by US$1.5/t of cement.
Naturally Bozay’s appearance on a television news show carried a lobbying aspect. He called for government import standards – such as the sulphur ratio, lower heating values and volatile matter limits - to be relaxed to allow coal to be imported more freely from sources such as Colombia, Indonesia and South Africa. There was also a push to let in more alternative fuels such as tyres and waste-derived fuels. The bit that Bozay didn’t mention though was how many of his members had long term coal supply contracts in place to cushion them, from short term price inflation at least. Yet, if coal shipments from Russia have simply stopped, then the price is irrelevant. A cement kiln configured to run on coal stops when it uses up its stocks.
Turkey was the world’s fifth largest cement producer in 2021 according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Türkçimento data shows that in 2020 it exported 145,000t of cement to Russia by sea. Overall it exported 16.3Mt of cement and 13.5Mt of clinker. The US, Israel, Syria, Haiti and Libya were the top destinations for cement. Notably, Ukraine was the sixth largest recipients of cement, with 752,000t imported, although anti-dumping legislation introduced in mid-2021 looked set to reduce it until the war started. Ghana, Ivory Coast, Guinea, Cameroon and Belgium were the principal recipients of clinker. Cumulative cement exports for the year to October 2021 were up by 3% year-on-year compared to the first 10 months of 2020. Clinker exports were down by 27% though. Overall domestic production and sales in Turkey rose by 9.5%, suggested an estimated production figure of 79Mt for 2021.
Other fallout in the cement sector from the war in Ukraine this week included Ireland-based CRH’s decision to quit the Russian market. It entered the region in 1998 through a subsidiary based in Finland and was operating seven ready-mixed concrete plants via its LujaBetomix joint venture. CRH says that all operations in Russia have now stopped. In 2021 it sold its lime business in Russia, Fels Izvest, to Russia-based Bonolit. Although selling concrete plants is not trivial, these are far cheaper assets than clinker production lines. Germany-based HeidelbergCement, Italy-based Buzzi Unicem and Switzerland-based Holcim each operate at least one integrated cement plant in Russia. So far these companies have publicly expressed dismay at the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ukraine and made donations to the Red Cross.
Graph 2: European Union Emission Trading Scheme price, 2020 – March 2022. Source: Sandbag.
Finally, one more surprise this week has been a crash in the European Union (EU) Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) carbon price from a high of Euro96/t in early February 2022 to Euro58/t on 7 March 2022. As other commentators have stated, normally the carbon price would be expected to follow the energy market, but this hasn’t happened. Instead investors have pulled out, possibly to maintain liquidity for other markets.
With the US set to ban Russian oil, gas and coal imports and phase-outs to varying degrees promised by the UK and the EU in 2022, we can expect more turbulence from energy markets in the coming days. As the Turkish example above shows, all of this can... and will... have effects on cement production.
Pakistan: All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) members exported 405,000t of cement in February 2022, down by 34% year-on-year from 616,000t in February 2021. Domestic deliveries also dropped, by under 1% to 3.95Mt from 3.96Mt. Amid the declines, Pakistani cement producers have reported a steep rise in their costs due to increases in international freight rates and coal prices and the country’s on-going ban on trade with neighbouring India. Cheaper Iranian cement has undercut Pakistani cement sales to Bangladesh, while the Afghan market has yet to recover following the withdrawal of peacekeeping forces.
2021 roundup for the cement multinationals
02 March 2022Cement markets have mostly recovered following the shock emergence of coronavirus in 2020. Most of the producers that have released their results so far for 2021 have reported strong boosts to sales revenue and racing earnings as something more like normality resumed. The following roundup covers a selective group of cement companies around the world.
The recovery in 2021 has made the outliers in the companies covered here noteworthy. UltraTech Cement, Semen Indonesia and Dangote Cement are all large regional companies with dominant positions domestically and varying degrees of international spread. As can be seen in Graph 1, UltraTech Cement and Dangote Cement both reported very large increases in sales, over 20% year-on-year. By contrast, Semen Indonesia sales fell very slightly.
Graph 1: Sales revenue from selected cement producers in 2020 and 2021. Source: Company reports. Note: Figures calculated for UltraTech Cement.
One reason for UltraTech Cement and Dangote Cement’s success can be seen in Graph 2 (below). Both companies managed to sell more cement in 2021. Semen Indonesia did not due to Indonesia’s production overcapacity and new competitors. It also blamed a significant rises in coal prices for a 9% drop in its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).
UltraTech Cement has been wary of successive waves of coronavirus throughout its 2022 financial year, but generally the Indian regional markets have recovered and government-backed rural housing and infrastructure spending have supported growth. It did note rising coal prices earlier in the year, but these were reported to have somewhat softened during the quarter to 31 December 2021. It is worth noting that the ongoing war in Ukraine is affecting energy markets but more on this at the end of this article. Dangote Cement’s performance was slowed somewhat by the start of coronavirus but it has since resumed its turbo-charged trajectory with volumes, revenue and earnings growth all above 10% in 2021. Mostly this performance is supported by the Nigerian market but the company is doing well internationally too.
Graph 2: Cement sales volumes from selected cement producers in 2019 and 2020. Source: Company reports. Note: Figures calculated for UltraTech Cement.
Holcim and HeidelbergCement’s increase in sales revenue in 2021 are actually fairly similar on a like-for-like basis, both with around 10%. The former’s sales volumes were up across cement, ready-mixed concrete and aggregates in each of its regions around the world, as were sales revenue. Holcim’s big move in 2021 has been the expansion of its Solutions & Products segment with the acquisition of Firestone in April 2021. Now this has continued with the completion of the Malarkey Roofing Products purchase on 1 March 2022, a few days after it released its 2021 results. Chief executive officer Jan Jenisch described the move towards lightweight building materials as generating, “further double-digit growth engines for the company.” As an aside, it was fascinating to see CRH leave the building envelope business this week, mostly based in the US, with an agreement to sell up its division for US$3.8bn to private equity. The business CRH is divesting sells architectural glass, storefront systems, architectural glazing systems and related hardware to customers primarily in North America. CRH is clearly pursuing a different business strategy to Holcim.
HeidelbergCement has also reported a strong year in 2021 albeit without the Holcim razzle-dazzle of barging into new market areas. It noted significant increases in energy prices and pandemic‐related lockdowns in some key markets in Asia. It described a very slight cement sales volume decline in Africa and the Middle East and a drop in earnings in Asia. Its trump cards are its carbon capture projects coming down the pipeline. It’s keen to remind investors about this with the unspoken implication that it might save the company money in the future when carbon taxes bite further.
Both Cemex and Buzzi Unicem followed the growth pattern seen in sales and earnings by the other larger multinational producers covered above. Central and South American markets really took off for Cemex in 2021, starting with its home market in Mexico. However, growth was present, although slower, in both its largest markets in the US and its Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia region. Notably cement volumes in the Philippines grew by 7% and that’s even with the devastation caused by typhoons at the end of the year taken into account. Similarly, Buzzi Unicem performed well in 2021 due to growth in Italy, the US and Eastern Europe compensating for a small sales decline in Germany. As mentioned in Update on Ukraine, February 2022 Buzzi Unicem has particular exposure to the war in Ukraine as it operates two cement plants in Ukraine and two units in Russia but this is a problem for the 2022 financial year.
To finish on Ukraine, first and foremost, a human tragedy is unfolding. Yet the war also presents many economic challenges to financial markets through sanctions and counter-actions. A recession in Russia looks likely as do energy price surges in the US and Europe leading to further inflation and, perhaps, recessions too. All this potentially lies ahead. For now, the dilemma for US and European-based cement companies and suppliers with operations in Russia is reputational. Should they continue to do business in Russia as public opinion hardens and companies like BP, Shell, Equinor, HSBC and AerCap head for the exit? The Russian government has blocked foreign companies and individuals from selling shares locally but pressure looks set to intensify for such companies to do something.
Semen Indonesia’s earnings fall in 2021 due to competition, overcapacity and coal prices
02 March 2022Indonesia: Semen Indonesia has blamed falling earnings in 2021 on increased competition, production overcapacity and mounting coal prices. Its revenue fell slightly to US$2.43bn. However, its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) dropped by 9.3% year-on-year to US$572m in 2021 from US$630m in 2020. Its sales volumes were driven by international sales, with domestic sales remaining stable at 32.2Mt. Foreign sales grew by 7.7% to 8.3Mt. Overall sales volumes increased by 1.6% to 40.5Mt from 39.8Mt.
In order to tackle its fuel costs the company says it has increased its use of alternative fuels, both biomass and non-biomass, and is optimising its coal consumption index by maintaining stable coal quality. It has also integrated coal procurement into the group to help better secure competitive pricing, supply and quality.
Pakistani cement production costs rise
10 February 2022Pakistan: Cement producers have reported a rise in operating costs. The News International newspaper has reported that costs have risen due to a hike in the price of imported Afghan coal. The price of the coal rose by 13% to US$170/t from US$150/t in the week leading up to 10 February. The rise brings it to just 23% below the price of imported coal from South Africa, which is currently US$236/t.
The Pakistani cement industry depends on imports of coal, of which 30 – 40% came from Afghanistan in Northern Pakistani cement production in 2021.
China - Happy New Year?
19 January 2022The cement output data for December 2021 is out for China and we’re starting to see the effects of a rather tough autumn. Lower coal supplies, consumer prioritisation for energy supplies, higher input costs and a slowing real estate market all contributed to a reduction in output.
Graph 1: Cement output by quarter in China, 2019 –2021. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.
As can be seen in Graph 1 above, output took off after the shock of the coronavirus outbreak receded at the start of 2020. This then continued until mid-2021 when things changed. Overall cement out was 2.36Bnt in 2021, an annual drop of nearly 1.2% compared to 2.39Bnt in 2020. Note that the 2021 output figure is about average for China’s annual output since it hit a high of nearly 2.5Bnt in 2014. However, the months from September 2021 onwards have seen output drops of above 10% year-on-year. It’s been from a high base but if it were to continue it could signal a more ominous trend. As the China Cement Association (CCA) describes it, cement output started to slow from May to August 2021, in part due to seasonal factors and repeated local outbreaks of Covid-19 around the country. This trend then started to accelerate for the reasons mentioned above.
Looking at energy first, coal future prices in China hit a near-decade high in October 2021 due to a variety of market disruptions. This looked set to worsen at the start of January 2022 when the country’s biggest overseas supplier, Indonesia, banned exports for a month due domestic shortages. However, data has since emerged this week from the National Bureau of Statistics showing that Chinese coal production grew by 4% year-on-year to 4.07Bnt in 2021, with faster monthly growth, as the industry ramped up output to meet demand.
On the real estate market, the CCA views it as having run ‘hot’ and then ‘cold’ in 2021. At the start of the year the government introduced new government regulations (its so-called three red lines of policy) to reduce borrowing in the sector. The real estate market subsequently declined, not withstanding certain hot-spots. In the western press this process has been symbolised by the fortunes of Evergrande and its debts of over US$300bn. It started missing bond payments in September 2021 before formally defaulting in December 2021. As the Financial Times newspaper reported in a summary on the situation, in late December 2021, Evergrande said that work at 92% of its projects, which number in the hundreds across China, had resumed. Separate data though showed that its housing sales had slumped by 99% year-on-year in the same month. The newspaper has compared the Chinese government’s approach to Evergrande to its handling of conglomerate HNA Group, which was eventually declared bankrupt in 2021 after a slow disintegration. In its opinion the government may try to control the collapse of Evergrande through a series of quiet interventions over a long period. However, Evergrande’s debts appear to be double those of HNA Group’s and there may be further risks from other companies in the real estate sector. All of this presents risks to local cement output.
To round up, Chinese cement output in the second quarter of 2022 is the figure to watch to assess how well the industry is coping with its current issues. Production is likely to slow in the first quarter due to seasonal factors such as the New Year holidays, winter shutdowns and the hangover from the problems in the autumn. Once the spring arrives then we may have a glimpse of how cement companies are coping with coal supplies, the real estate market and all the rest.
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Montenegro: State-owned energy supplier Elektroprivreda Crne Gore (EPCG) has proposed the gradual shutdown of its Pljevlja coal-fired plant and its replacement with a new cement plant. The company said that such a plant would eliminate Montenegro’s 750,000 – 800,000t/yr of cement imports.
The first stage of the Pljevlja power plant’s shutdown will only commence once a replacement power facility is online. Currently, the plant supplies 40% of the country’s energy. Its closure is part of Montenegro’s plan to accede to the EU as soon as 2025.
Taiwan Cement chair pessimistic about Chinese market
22 December 2021Taiwan: Zhang Anping, the chair of Taiwan Cement, has expressed doubts about the strength of the Chinese market in the short term. Whilst being interviewed by the state-owned Central News Agency at a community event, he said that increased raw material and energy prices looked set to remain high until at least mid-2022. The price of coal in China had more than tripled in 2021 before easing somewhat. He also raised the risks of growing global market uncertainty from an anticipated rise in interest rates in the US by the Federal Reserve and the spread of the Omicron variant of Covid-19.
Indian cement sales rise in first half of 2022 financial year
16 December 2021India: Finance company ICRA reported all-India cement sales in the first half of the 2022 financial year of 124Mt, up by 22% year-on-year. Mint News has reported that the total value of cement sales rose by 5% in the period compared to the first half of the 2021 financial year. Producers’ raw materials costs rose by 16%, while power, coal and petcoke costs rose by 26% and freight costs rose by 7%. Granulated blast furnace slag (GBFS) and gypsum prices also rose.
ICRA corporate ratings assistant vice president and sector head Anupama Reddy said "Despite some easing in the cost-side pressures, the input costs are likely to remain elevated in the near term, and are expected to exert pressure on operating margins, which are likely to decline by 200 to 230 basis points (BPS) in the 2022 financial year as a whole. While the capacity additions are expected to increase year-on-year in the 2022 financial year, the reliance on debt is likely to be lower owing to the healthy cash generation and strong liquidity of the cement companies. The debt coverage metrics are expected to remain strong in the 2022 financial year."
Siam Cement Group to spend US$2bn on CO2 reduction by 2030
15 December 2021Thailand: Siam Cement Group (SCG) plans to spend US$2bn towards meeting its CO2 reduction target by 2030. The industrial group and cement producer intends to reduce its emissions by 20% by the end of the decade, according to the Bangkok Post newspaper. Chief executive officer Roongrote Rangsiyopash, said that the investment will be made from 2022 to 2030 and that it follows the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), the Thai government's bio, circular and green (BCG) economic model and environmental, social and governance standards (ESG). After 2030 the group has a net zero goal for 2050.
In cement production the SCG wants to increase its rate of alternative fuels such as biomass and refuse-derived fuel. It also wants to invest in carbon capture utilisation and storage, use electric vehicles and use artificial intelligence systems in energy management. The group plans to reduce coal usage at its cement plants in Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Indonesia by 50% in 2022. It also plans to use more electricity generated by renewable energy for its factories.