Displaying items by tag: Coal

UltraTech Cement, Taiheiyo Cement, Cimtogo and the Chinese Cement Association (CCA) have all been talking about the same thing recently: energy prices.

India-based UtraTech Cement reported this week that coal and petcoke prices nearly doubled in the second quarter of its current financial year, leading to a 17% rise year-on-year in energy costs. Japan-based Taiheiyo Cement released a statement earlier in October 2021 saying that due to mounting coal prices it was planning to raise the price of its cement from the start of 2022. It principally blamed this on increased demand in China and a stagnant export market. It added that it was ‘inevitable’ that prices would rise further in the future. Meanwhile in West Africa, Eric Goulignac, the chief executive officer of Cimtogo, complained to the local press that the reason the company’s cement prices were going up was due to a 250% increase in the cost of fuels for the Scantogo plant and an increase in the price of sea freight of over US$35/t for transporting gypsum and coal.

Other places where the cost of energy has been biting cement producers include Turkey and Serbia. In the former, Türk Çimento, the Turkish Cement Manufacturers' Association, warned in June 2021 that the price of petcoke had nearly tripled over the previous year. Whether it was connected or not, the Turkish Building Contractors Confederation (IMKON) organised a strike in September 2021 due to high costs. The confederation claimed that the price of cement had tripled over the last year. In Serbia electricity prices have risen sharply in recent months in common with much of Europe. Local press reported comments last month from President Aleksandar Vučić saying that an unnamed cement producer had warned of a 25% rise in the price of cement if electricity prices remained high. In the UK the Energy Intensive Users Group (EIUG), a network of lobbying groups for heavy industry including cement, has been holding talks with the government on how to cope with growing energy costs. Finally, in the US, Lhoist warned in September 2021 that is was going to increase the cost of all of its lime products from the start of November 2021 due to increasing gas prices. These are just some of the reactions by cement and lime producers to the current global energy market. No doubt there are many more.

The current global energy crunch has widely been attributed to the waking up of economies following coronavirus-related dormancy in 2020 with supply failing to meet demand. Gas prices have risen to record highs and this has promoted electricity producers to switch to coal in the US, Europe and Asia. This in turn has put pressure on industrial users as both electricity and coal prices have grown and governments have taken action in some cases to protect domestic users. In Europe price pressure has lead to reductions in ammonia and fertiliser production. Power cuts have been reported in China and India.

In China a variety of factors have converged to create a crisis. These include shutting down coal mines on environmental and safety grounds, anti-corruption measures and even promoting mine closures to facilitate clean skies for national events such as the Communist party’s 100th anniversary. Disruption to import sources such as a ban on Australian coal on political grounds, flooding in Indonesia and a renewed coronavirus outbreak in Mongolia can’t have helped either. Thermal coal futures traded on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange hit a high of US$263/t on 15 October 2021 marking a 34% rise through the week and the largest weekly growth since trading started in 2013. The International Energy Agency estimates that coal demand in China grew by over 10% year-on-year in the first half of 2021 but coal production increased by just over 5%.

Industrial users have suffered as energy supplies have been rationed and producers asked to cut output. In September 2021 cement output fell by 12% year-on-year to 205Mt from 233Mt in September 2020. This is the lowest monthly figure for September since 2011. It’s also not the usual direction of double-digit rate of change that the Chinese cement sector is used to. The CCA attributed this mainly to energy controls, power shortages and high coal prices in Jiangsu, Hunan, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Shandong and elsewhere. Cement output for the first nine months of 2021 is still ahead of 2020 at 1.77Bnt compared to 1.67Bnt but it’s been slipping noticeably since July 2021.

This will leave energy users, including cement producers, watching the weather forecasts rather closely this winter. Should the Northern Hemisphere suffer a cold one then energy prices such as coal will reflect it. Industrial users may also become subject to energy rationing in many places. The knock-on effect of this then will be higher cement prices. However bad the winter does turn out to be though we can expect more cement companies trying to explain bashfully why their prices are going up. On the plus side any producer that can diversify its energy mix through solar, alternative fuels or whatever else is likely to be doing so soon if they are not already.

Japan: Taiheiyo Cement says that the cost of producing its cement has increased throughout 2021. The company said the coal prices have risen due to increased coal demand in China and a reduction in exports from coal-producing countries. It anticipates further rises in the price of coal. Additionally, it foresees a rise in maintenance costs as the equipment at its plants nears the end of its service life. The producer says that it is endeavouring to improve productivity and reduce costs.

Pakistan: The All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) recorded a 5.7% year-on-year decline in overall cement sales in the first quarter of the 2022 financial year to 12.8Mt from 13.6Mt in the corresponding period of the 2021 financial year. Intensified local construction activity increased domestic cement sales by 4% to 11.3Mt/yr from 10.9Mt/yr.

Costs increased – notably the price of coal, which more than tripled year-on-year to US$210/t from US$68/t. Its transport costs from South Africa more than doubled to US$30/t from US$11/t. Currency effects exacerbated the rise in costs. The Dawn newspaper has reported that exports fell by 44% in the period to 1.55Mt from 2.74Mt. Afghanistan had previously received 606,000t of Pakistani cement exports, 22% of the total. This figure fell by 36% year-on-year to 389,000t, 25% of the first-quarter 2021 total, due to political unrest and increased transport costs.

India: Cement companies produced 82Mt of cement in the three-month period ending on 30 June 2021, the first quarter of the 2022 financial year, corresponding to growth of 54% year-on-year. Production in the quarter declined by 12% quarter-on-quarter, due to the proliferation of new state Covid-19 lockdowns from April 2021 onwards. The Hitavada newspaper has reported that ratings agency ICRA forecast that full-year production will rise by 12% in the 2022 financial year, on account of pent-up demand, growing rural housing demand and a pick-up in infrastructure activity. It nonetheless estimated that production will remain 2% below pre-Covid-19 outbreak 2020 financial year levels, with continuing high costs due to rising fuel prices. In the first quarter of the 2022 financial year, coal prices more than doubled and petcoke prices rose by 98% year-on-year.

Asia: France-based Fives says it has commissioned a Pillard Novaflam Evolution burner for an unnamed cement plant in East Asia. Due to the travel restrictions linked to the coronavirus pandemic, the commissioning was carried out remotely with the cooperation of the customer. A 143MW coal and petcoke burner with oil as a start-up fuel was supplied as a replacement for an old burner. The aim of this replacement was to increase the kiln capacity to 9000t/day without impacting its NO_x emissions whilst maintaining a good clinker quality despite a high sulphur content in the petcoke. The installation is now in production and an intervention is planned in the coming weeks to further optimise the operation.

Pakistan: The Pakistan International Bulk Terminal plans to invest US$70m in increasing its coal capacity by 40% to 17Mt/yr from 12Mt/yr with the installation of a second conveyor belt. The expanded terminal will open in late 2023 or early 2024. The Dawn newspaper has reported that cement producers previously called for an expansion of the country’s coal import infrastructure. The All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) lobbied the government in July 2021 to permit coal discharge at the 10,000t/day Karachi Port Trust port. By contrast, the Pakistan International Bulk Terminal currently has a capacity of around 30,000t/day. It charges importers US$5.49/t of coal, plus a US$1/t handling fee for use of its berth.

Pakistan: DG Khan has connected its upgraded Hub cement plant and power infrastructure to the national grid. The Pakistan Observer newspaper has reported that the facilities generate 40MW of power via a 10MW waste heat recovery (WHR) plant and 30MW coal-fired power plant. China National Building Material (CNBM) subsidiary Sinoma Energy Conservation provided engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services for both power plants.

Turkey: Builders have declared a one-day ‘strike’ on 2 September 2021 to protest against high cement prices. The Turkish Builders Confederation (IMKON) told the government that, though the prices of all commodities rose following the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the cement price rise is disproportionate, according to the Dünya newspaper. Producers responded that they have recorded sharp increases in input prices. Electricity costs rose by 64% year-on-year in July 2021, while coal costs more than doubled over the same period.

It’s time for a macroscopic view of the Chinese cement sector this week with the release of the half-year financial results by some of the larger Chinese cement producers. On the national level the picture so far in 2021 has been one of continued recovery from the coronavirus lockdowns at the start of the year and then a slowing market as state controls on real estate speculation started to take effect. However, poor weather in the spring and mounting raw material prices appear to have compounded the effects of the real estate regulations, leading to price falls.

Cement output data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China in Graph 1 shows that local production took a knock in the first quarter of 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic and this strongly recovered in the same period in 2021. The market recovered fast in mid-2020 and so the year-on-year growth for the second quarter was less in 2021. Output on a monthly basis remained ahead year-on-year from April 2020 and stayed ahead until May 2021. However, output in June 2021 was behind the figure in June 2020 and the figure for July 2021 was behind both July 2020 and July 2019.

Graph 1: Cement output by quarter in China, 2019 – mid-2021. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

The Chinese Cement Association (CCA) was lamenting falling cement prices at the start of July 2021. It blamed the situation on slowing infrastructure development in some regions, increasing government restrictions on real estate development, especially poor mid-year weather and higher input prices such as for steel. China Resources Cement (CRC) expanded upon the point about increasing real estate regulations in its financial results for the first half of 2021 explaining that the Chinese government has been promoting a policy that aims to ensure that “residential properties are not for speculation” including controls on the financing of real estate. Later in mid-August 2021 the CCA reported that prices were recovering in east and central-southern regions although the situation remained poor in Guizhou province with shipments down to 60% of normal levels. Production control measures are expected to be implemented to stabilise the situation.

Graph 2: Sales revenue of large Chinese cement producers in first half of year, 2019 – 2021. Source: Company reports.

On the corporate side the sales revenue from some of the large Chinese cement producers mostly show the usual gap-tooth pattern that coronavirus has created everywhere as the market recovered. Notably Anhui Conch managed to avoid falling sales year-on-year in the first half of 2020. However, the CCA’s observation above about rising input costs is visible in the falling profits of some (but not all) of the companies covered here. For example, Anhui Conch’s net profit fell by 7% year-on-year to US$2.32bn in the first half of 2021. It blamed this on a significant rise in the price of raw coal. CRC also reported falling profits attributable to increased production costs.

CNBM reported an increase to cement and clinker sales volumes of 7.6% to 177Mt and concrete sales volumes by 13.4% to 52Mm³. It noted that, “In the first half of 2021, the national cement market showed the characteristics of high price level fluctuation adjustment.” From January to April 2021 local fiscal policy boosted demand for cement but from May 2021 continuous heavy rainfall and increasing bulk commodity prices slowed infrastructure project development. Anhui Conch’s cement and clinker sales volumes for both production and trading grew by 11.5% to 208Mt. It reported stable market demand in eastern, central and southern regions but noted falling prices in the west.

Looking ahead, two issues, among many, to consider are carbon trading and imports. The former has been coming for a while and was launched formally online nationally in mid-July 2021 for the power generation industry. The carbon price was nearly Euro7/t in late July 2021 in China compared to around Euro53/t in the European Union. Cement and steel are expected to join the Chinese national scheme in the next phase although analysts believe that issues such as data gathering, permit allocation rules, accounting standards, sector reduction targets and related financial support all need to be improved before this can happen. Imports are a connected issue and it has been interesting in recent months to hear financial analysts point out the risks, for example, of major exporting nations such as Vietnam relying on China so much. The CCA reckons that China imported 33.4Mt of clinker in 2020, an increase of 47% year-on-year, with 60% of this derived from Vietnam. With the Chinese government trying to tackle cement production overcapacity and meet growing environmental targets, imports look set to become a ‘hot ticket’ issue. In this context it is telling to see talk from the CCA of ensuring standards for imports such as verified carbon emissions. Naturally, the imports that could be trusted the most will probably be the ones from plants that Chinese cement producers have built themselves overseas. As waste importers into China found out previously, relying heavily on one market with strong state controls carries considerable risks. Cement exporters in South-East Asia take note.

Pakistan: Research by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) think tank shows that the cement sector was the largest national emitter of CO₂ from coal in the financial year for 2018 – 2019. Coal was responsible for 19% of emissions in the reporting period. Cement comprised 49% of this followed by power generation at 28% and brick manufacture at 22%. The report looked at CO₂ emissions from the Pakistan energy sector. It concluded that the cement industry was often missed out in discussions about carbon emissions in the country despite its high coal consumption and the number of new plants currently being planned.