Displaying items by tag: Production

Colombia: Mexico-based Cemex has announced the resumption of operations at its 2.8Mt/yr Caracolito plant in Ibagué, Tolima Department on 13 April 2020. Noticias Financieras News has reported that Cemex Colombia will resume the supply of its products to ‘infrastructure and public works that cannot be suspended, as well as for emergency care projects and road projects.

Cemex will have to wait for the Colombian government to lift its coronavirus lockdown to restart supplies to customers.

As India reaches two weeks into its 21 day lockdown to combat coronavirus, the financial analysts are starting to publish their forecasts as to what the effects will be for the cement industry. The results are gloomy, with demand predicted to drop by up to 25% in the financial year to March 2021 by one analyst and 40% in March 2020 alone by another.

Graph 1: Indian cement production, rolling annual by month, January 2018 – February 2020. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

The graph above sets the scene for what may be to come by showing the state of production in India in recent years. From early 2018 it picked up by 17% to 337Mt by March 2019 and stayed around there through the rest of year before breeching 340Mt in January and February 2020. The (relative) lull in production growth in 2019 was blamed by some analysts on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. In summary the market was improving and seemed set for further growth in 2020. Alas, this does not now seem to be the case.

Looking ahead, Rating’s agency CRISIL has published a research paper on the topic and here are some of the highlights. They break the damage down into two separate scenarios. The first, where the social distancing measures last until the end of April, cause a 10 – 15% fall in cement demand with the pain limited to the first quarter of the Indian financial year, which starts on 1 April. The second, where distancing measures last until June, cause a 20 – 25% decrease in demand, with the problems extended into the second quarter. Salient points that it makes about the anticipated recovery include a delay in infrastructure spending due to the government diverting funds to healthcare, reduced private and real estate markets and a divide between state-led affordable housing schemes in urban and rural areas. It pins its hopes on rural housing to grab demand first, followed by key infrastructure projects, especially transport schemes.

Examining the cement producers directly, CRISIL reckons that prices will fall in the face of dropping demand but that power, fuel and freight costs are all expected to fall also. Profit margins are forecast to drop compared to the 2019 – 2020 financial year but still remain higher than the two previous ones. Finally, it looked at the credit profiles of 23 companies, representing over 70% of installed production capacity. Together they had a total debt of US$7bn. It flagged up four of these companies as having high debt/earnings ratios and five with low interest coverage. The latter were described as ‘small regional firms with weak cash balances.’

That’s one view on what may happen but two recent general industry news stories offer snapshots on what may be to come for the Indian market. The first is an immediate consequence of a nationwide lockdown in a country with a population of 1.3bn and a low cost of labour. 400 construction workers at a grinding plant build for Ramco Cements in Haridaspur, Odisha, were stranded at the site when the quarantine restrictions stopped them travelling home to Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. They took up residence at the building site and then protested when the food ran out. This point about migrant labour is noteworthy because how the Indian government relaxes the lockdown could have massive consequences upon how the construction industry recovers. A possible parallel from elsewhere in the world is the slowdown effect the Saudi Arabian cement industry suffered in late 2013 when the government took action against illegal foreign workers in the construction industry.

The second news story to keep in mind is the annual results from refractory manufacturer RHI Magnesita this week. It reported growing revenue from its cement and lime customers in 2019 but it blamed a weaker market in Europe on producers stockpiling product due to tightening magnesite and dolomite raw material availability. The takeaway here is that if supply chains supporting the cement sector and the rest of the construction industry in India at the moment are affected by the coronavirus outbreak, and government action to stop it, then there may be consequences later on. So far Global Cement hasn’t seen anything like this but the preparation for coronavirus advice from industry expert John Kilne has been to indentify and secure medium term needs, including refractory and critical spare parts and to consider potential disruption to supply chains.

In terms of what happens next once the lockdown ends in India (and other countries), one media commentator has described the response to coronavrius as the ‘hammer and the dance.’ The hammer is the economy-busting measures many governments have implemented to stop local epidemics. The dance is/are the measures that countries are using before and after an outbreak to keep it suppressed until a vaccine is developed. The worry for building material producers is how much the ‘dance’ disrupts business over the next year. All eyes will be on the East Asian producer market figures for the first quarter to see how this plays out.

Ireland: UK-based Breedon Group has announced the suspension of operations at its 0.7Mt/yr integrated Kinnegad plant in County Westmeath and all other sites in Ireland. Breedon Group guaranteed 100% to pay to all Irish and UK staff to 30 April 2020.

Two non-executive directors of Breedon Group, Susie Farnon and Peter Cornell, have taken retirement.

India: Dalmia Bharat has suspended operations across its entire integrated cement production apparatus, equalling 26.5Mt/yr capacity, as of 26 March 2020. The move is a response to a government ordnance of 25 March 2020 imposing a 21-day lockdown on the whole of India due to the coronavirus. The company will implement the closure ‘until further notice,’ according to Mint News.

Dalmia Bharat CEO and managing director Mahendra Singhi said, “While cement production is continuous in nature and the plants have requisite permission from both the state and the central governments to operate with minimum employees during the lockdown, Dalmia Bharat will only carry out mandatory activities required for safety and security of the plants in the larger interest of its staff.”

Coronavirus had claimed 13 lives in India on 27 March 2020.

Uzbekistan: The total volume of cement produced in January and February 2020 in Uzbekistan was 1.02Mt, down by 20% year-on-year from 1.22Mt in the first two months of 2019. February 2020 production rose by 16% month-on-month and fell by 13% year-on-year, to 551,000t from 474,000t in January 2020 and 659,000t in February 2019.

Uzbekistan Newsline has reported that the level of utilisation of Uzbekistan’s 11.1Mt/yr cement production capacity in January and February 2020 was 55%.

North Korea: Local press says that the Sangwon Cement Complex in North Hwanghae Province has reported an upsurge in production, apparently making a record 10,000t/month of cement, its highest production level ever.

Chief engineer Yun Song Chol was quoted as saying that this had been made possible by ‘prioritising science and technology’ and ensuring the operation of equipment ‘at full capacity in accordance with the completion of modernisation at the end of 2019.’ Following the works, the line was reportedly commissioned in just a week.

Philippines: Cemex Holdings Philippines has announced that production of will continue as normal at all its plants in spite of the global coronavirus pandemic. Reuters has reported that the company has activated rapid response teams throughout operations to reduce the disease’s impacts. Cemex Holdings Philippines has said that there will be no material disruption in its ability to transport products or receive raw materials and equipment.

Azerbaijan: Akkord Cement has indicated that it plans to produce 1.6Mt of cement and clinker at its Gazakh plant in Dash Salahli in 2020. This would represent a 33% year-on-year increase from 1.2Mt in 2019. In 2019, Akkord Cement exported 500t of clinker from the plant to Georgia. Trend News has reported that the company intends to also export clinker to Iran in 2020.

Vietnam: Cement producers in Vietnam are reported to be facing a ‘double whammy’ due to falling domestic demand from a slowdown in the domestic property and infrastructure sectors, as well as a marked decline in exports due to the ongoing Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic.

However, Nguyen Quang Cung, chairman of the Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA) said that demand is expected to remain high throughout 2020 as a whole. The Ministry of Construction (MoC) currently stands by its autumn 2019 forecast that Vietnam will produce 103Mt of cement during 2020. It expects domestic consumption to be around 70Mt, with exports of 33Mt.

To help firms overcome the current difficulties, Cung proposed that the government, the State Bank of Vietnam and other parties offer support to manufacturers in the form of tax cuts and lower interest rates.

Global Cement is sceptical that Vietnam’s cement producers will meet the MoC’s 2020 forecast. In January and February 2020 the country’s domestic sales were 40% lower year-on-year compared to 2019, while exports fell by 49% year-on-year.

El Salvador: Switzerland-based LafargeHolcim subsidiary Holcim El Salvador has announced a planned investment of US$7.5m to establish six concrete plants in 2020, which will bring its total to 18 plants. Esmerk Latin American News has reported that the investment also covers ‘new trucks and other machinery.’ Holcim El Salvador also announced its intention ‘in the long term’ to resume operations at its 1.6Mt/yr Maya cement plant, mothballed in 2008, at an estimated cost of US$20m. It is currently investigating the possibility of installing a US$5m solar power plant at its 1.7Mt/yr El Ronco cement plant.

In 2019 Holcim El Salvador produced 1.2Mt of cement and 710,000m³ of concrete.