The Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) has announced its aim to reduce CO₂ emissions by clinker producers by 20 - 25% by 2030. It made the announcement as part of a new action plan launched on 8 December 2015 at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21).

Most of the plan follows the CSI's existing aims announced to chime with the on-going COP21 negotiations. The plan depends on a long-term agreement being brokered successfully in Paris at COP21 as a whole. It then recommends policy in each of its key areas to achieve its goals. All of this sits beneath a general policy statement to, '...encourage policies for predictable, objective, level-playing and stable CO₂ constraints and incentives as well as energy frameworks on an international level.'

The Cement Action Plan is part of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development Low Carbon Technology Partnerships initiative (LCTPi). It puts together a series of measures to aspire to reduce CO₂ emissions by 1Gt by 2030 compared to business as usual. However this reduction is dependent on the entire cement industry getting involved, not just the existing 26 CSI members. Together these 26 members represent just a quarter of world cement production.

The drop in emissions is based on the so-called 'best-in-class' CSI company 2020 targets. To reach this the CSI is suggesting actions including focusing on recording Chinese cement industry emissions and energy usage, improving energy efficiency, promoting co-processing of alternative fuels, further lowering the clinker factor of cements, developing new low-energy and low-carbon cements, looking at the entire build chain to reduce emissions and considering other options such as carbon capture and storage. The plan had the support of the CEOs of 16 cement companies at its launch, with CNBM CEO Song Zhiping adding his assent at the event also.

The most prominent step is the clear focus on China for data capture using existing CSI tools such as the CO₂ and Energy Accounting and Reporting Standard for the Cement Industry, the Getting the Numbers Right (GNR) and the Cement Technology Roadmaps. As the CSI puts it, "What gets measured gets managed."

Given that China produces around 60% of the world's cement, according to United States Geological Survey data, the focus on China is essential. Currently the CSI has six Chinese members: CNBM, Sinoma, China Resources, Tianrui Group, West China Cement and Yati Group. Notable exceptions to CSI membership from the world's biggest cement producers include the Chinese producers Anhui Conch and Taiwan Cement, as well as Russia's Eurocement and India's Aditya Birla Group.

So, the CSI has set out its stall ahead of a hoped-for global agreement on climate change at the Paris conference. If some sort of legal agreement is reached then the CSI has its recommendations ready in the wings to hand to policymakers everywhere to promote its aims. If no agreement is reached then the plan loses momentum although pushing forwards makes sense where possible, starting with better CO₂ data reported especially in China.

Problems lie ahead for the CSI whatever happens in Paris given that the LCTPi Cement Action Plan is a series of policy suggestions from only 16 cement producers aiming for a non-binding target. For example, without some sort of world legal agreement there are clear commercial advantages for non-CSI members to burn cheap fossil fuels in their kilns and undercut their more environmentally pious rivals. The sustaining low cost of oil, dipping below US$40/barrel this week, can only aggravate this situation and distract the strategies of fuel buyers away from co-processing upgrades.

This week we got our first real sense of how things are going at the new global cement leader LafargeHolcim. The group released its first 'combined' results, which cover the third quarter of the year and the nine month period to 30 September 2015.

First impressions are that LafargeHolcim is having a tough time of it, struggling, as many cement industry players are, with an increasingly tricky and uneven global market. It reported a fall in net sales and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the first nine months of 2015, compared to the same period of 2014. Cement sales were also down by 1.3%. The group said that lower than expected demand was the reason behind lower sales, particularly in China and Brazil, which continue to struggle economically. It also picked out India as a country where momentum was lacking.

Of course, it's not all bad. While net sales were down, they were only down very slightly, by 0.6% year-on-year in the first nine months. Many a cement producer would love to pull in Euro20.4bn in sales and ship 189Mt of cement in just nine months! And, after a sticky start to the year, the picture is improving in some regions, with third quarter performance buoyed by improving fortunes in Asia, excluding China and India. LafargeHolcim was able to continue banking on the strong recovery in North America and parts of Europe, where some markets, such as the UK, continue to buck the otherwise depressing trend.

While these results will be a concern they are by no means horrific. However, they have already given rise to (or at least sped up) LafargeHolcim's future divestment plans. According to Dow Jones, LafargeHolcim plans to raise Euro3.23bn in 2016 from selling off assets, around half as much as Lafarge and Holcim had to sell to allow the merger to go through. The company has reportedly started discussions with interested parties, including private-equity firms and industry rivals about some of the assets. The proceeds will be returned to shareholders through dividends or share buybacks, according to CEO Eric Olsen.

Which assets will be divested remains to be seen. However, it reportedly won't involve LafargeHolcim's assets in Australia and New Zealand, at least in the short term. In the past week or so local media has reported that LafargeHolcim's assets in the two countries were to be sold off. However, since then Holcim Australia's Chief Executive Mark Campbell said the company was 'not currently being sold.' Campbell also added that he couldn't rule out a possible sale in the future.

So, while being clear that LafargeHolcim has no plans to sell its Australian and New Zealand assets at the moment, what could happen if it did? The starting point is complex, especially in Australia. According to the Global Cement Directory 2016, there are six operational integrated cement plants and 12 grinding plants in the country, which share a combined 13.9Mt/yr of cement capacity. LafargeHolcim has a 50% interest in Cement Australia's 4.0Mt of cement capacity, giving it 2Mt/yr of capacity and around 14% of national capacity. The other 50% of Cement Australia is owned by HeidelbergCement. Other major players include Adelaide Brighton, which has 2.3Mt/yr in its own name and a 50% stake in Independent Cement, and Boral Cement, which owns 2.3Mt/yr of capacity outright and 50% of SunState Cement's 1.5Mt/yr of capacity. In New Zealand there are two integrated plants, one operated by Golden Bay Cement and one by LafargeHolcim. The latter, however, is due to be closed in 2016.

If LafargeHolcim was to leave the mix in Australia, it is possible that neither Adelaide Brighton nor Boral would be able to take over its share, due to their already-large market presences. This may leave the door open for other regional players, perhaps a Chinese player looking to exit that country's rapidly-declining domestic market? Cemex is contracting and still heavily indebted, leaving it out of the running. While it is also possible that assets could be sold to private equity firms, another interested player could be Ireland's CRH, with 'cash to burn' and recent disappointment from its failure to buy Lafarge and Holcim's former assets in India.

Of course, if the assets aren't for sale, it won't be possible to buy them, meaning that for now the above is just speculation. However, the quick analysis above does highlight the relative lack of viable cement industry suitors in this region. If LafargeHolcim does ever decide to sell in this region, it might find the assets hard to shift.

Sri Lanka: Harsha Cabral was appointed as the Director of Tokyo Cement Company Lanka one year ago on 1 December 2014. Cabral was appointed to the Board in March 2009

Nine-month financial results from the major Brazilian cement producers have been reported this week and they are not looking good. The local construction market is weak and cement sales volumes are down. This has been blamed on a 30% shrinkage of real estate financing and a 20% decrease in infrastructure works.

Votorantim has seen its cement sales volumes drop by 4% year-on-year to 26.7Mt for the first nine months of 2015. InterCement has seen its cement and clinker sales volumes drop by 7.2% to 21.1Mt. LafargeHolcim has reported unspecified declines in its cement sector in its disappointing third quarter results.

Overall, the Sindicato Nacional Da Indústria Do Cimento (SNIC) - Brazil's cement industry body, has reported that domestic cement sales fell by 7.7% to 49.2Mt for the period. Particular sales drops by region have been observed in the Midwest (5.8Mt, -11.2%) and the Southeast (22.8Mt, -9.4%). That last region, Southeast, is pertinent given that it contains the country's biggest cement producing state, Minas Gerais.

Votorantim has been pointing out all year that its costs are soaring due to issues in Brazil. Maintenance costs, energy-related costs and the impact of the depreciation of the Brazilian Real on petcoke were all hitting costs. Net revenue has grown so far in 2015, with a growth of 5% to US$2.75bn, mainly due to the company's geographic spread outside of Brazil.

InterCement has noted that new cement production capacity in north-eastern and southern markets have reduced its sales volumes and prices by 1.7%. It too has experienced a rise in energy costs, pegged to the US Dollar. To act against this InterCement is implementing adjustment measures including suspending production at two grinding units and the closure of concrete units.

Alongside this Camargo Corrêa, the Brazilian construction group that owns InterCement, has been planning to sell a stake in InterCement to pay off debt since at least mid-2015. At the time local media reported that Camargo Corrêa planned to sell 10 – 18% of Intercement for between US$648m and US$1.17bn. CEO Vitor Hallack confirmed this week that Camargo Corrêa is still looking for a buyer. In the meantime it has extended US$536m of its short-term debt.

All of this is mirrored by wider economic woes in the country. In October 2015 the International Monetary Fund projected a 3% drop in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2015. The situation has been blamed on a wider world economy, the slowing Chinese economy and internal factors.

Back on cement, in July 2015, SNIC announced that domestic cement demand could contract by 10 - 15% in 2015 and that consumption could fall to around 60Mt in 2016. Brazil's cement production capacity currently stands at 70.75Mt/yr. Perhaps not coincidentally LafargeHolcim announced a 'portfolio optimisation' in its third quarter results with asset sales of US$3.5bn in 2016. Brazil may be on that list.

For more information on the Brazilian cement industry look out for our report in the December 2015 issue of Global Cement Magazine

Australia: Martin Brydon has been appointed the Managing Director of Adelaide Brighton. He is currently the Chief Executive Office of the Australian construction materials company.

Brydon, aged 60, trained in electrical and electronic engineering with BHP before completing a Masters Degree in Business Administration and the Stanford Executive Program in the USA in 1998.

Brydon joined Cockburn Cement Limited as an Electrical Engineer in 1981. In 1998 he was appointed Cockburn Cement Limited's Chief Executive Officer. Following Cockburn Cement's merger into Adelaide Brighton in 1999, Brydon became the Group General Manager for the Western Division.

In 2001, Martin was appointed to the position of General Manager, Strategy and Business Development for the Adelaide Brighton group of companies. In 2005, Martin was appointed to the position of Executive General Manager, Cement and Lime at Adelaide Brighton and in 2014 in became its Chief Executive Officer.

People matter in cement companies. Just ask Bruno Lafont, the originally proposed CEO of LafargeHolcim before the merger plans between Lafarge and Holcim changed in mid-2015. Another example is Zhang Bin, the chairman of Shanshui Cement. Some of the shareholders at Shanshui Cement are working hard to remove him. The next attempt has been scheduled for 1 December 2015.

Shanshui Cement, one of the biggest Chinese cement producers, called for the liquidators this week possibly in response. It decided to apply for provisional liquidation after determining that it would default on onshore debt payments due on 12 November 2015. Earlier in the month it had announced doubt whether it could pay its debts.

The scale of this liquidation is monumental for the cement industry. It is broadly similar to a producer at least the size of Dangote going bust. Shanshui Cement is one of China's top ten cement producers. It defaulted on a US$314m onshore debt payment on 12 November 2015.

Based on Global Cement Directory 2015 data, Shanshui Cement is the seventh largest cement producer in the country with 15 cement plants and a cement production capacity of 30.5Mt/yr. Shanshui Cement itself reports that it has a production capacity of 102.6Mt/yr making it the country's fourth largest cement producer. In its 2014 annual results Shanshui Cement reported sales revenue of over US$2.4bn. Its net profit was over US$48m. Sales and profits were down year-on-year in 2014 compared to 2013 and its interim report for 2015 reported the same downward trend. Sales revenue fell by a third to US$793m year-on-year for the first half of 2015. In 2014 its total debt was reported to be US$2.5bn with a gearing ratio of 56.9%, a relatively high figure leaving it vulnerable to decreasing profits.

As the Wall Street Journal and others have reported, the situation has as much to do with corporate politics as it does with over-borrowing. Hot on the heels of Shanshui's liquidation announcement came an offer of help to pay the debts from local rival Tianrui Group if its attempts to change the board of Shanshui were finally successful. Tianrui became the largest shareholder of Shanshui in April 2015 when it increased its stake to 28%. In the process it beat China National Building Material Company and Asia Cement Corporation, who hold 16.7% and 20.9% stakes in Shanshui respectively.

The heart of the Shanshui debacle is the 'key man' clause as reported by Reuters. Borrowing to the company is dependent on current chairman Zhang Bin retaining his position. As soon as he leaves it triggers the repayment of offshore bonds worth US$500m. Normally not due for payment until 2020, the bonds contain a clause that forces the company to sell them within 30 days should Zhang Bin depart.

Shanshui seems likely to be able to pay its debts judging from its sales revenue, assets and the strength of its main shareholders. However, it has chosen to default for the moment. The question for analysts watching this from outside China is whether it masks deeper problems in the Chinese economy as growth continues to slow and industrial overcapacity lingers. Shanshui is the sixth mainland Chinese company known to have defaulted on a bond this year, according to Bloomberg. It's also likely to be operating at a cement production utilisation rate of around 50%.

If the Shanshui Cement situation is more to do with markets than personalities, then it may represent an alarming acceleration of the slowdown of the Chinese economy for the cement industry. If personalities matter more, then the situation is a battle comparable to the politics on the television show 'Game of Thrones.'

Both HeidelbergCement and Italcementi released their third quarter financial results for 2015 this week. The results are worth comparing given the impending acquisition of Italcementi by HeidelbergCement.

HeidelbergCement has reported a rise in revenue of 8% to Euro10.1bn for the first nine months of 2015. Its net profit rose by 27% to Euro762m from Euro599m. Its earnings before interest and income taxes (EBIT) rose by 17% to Euro1.4bn. By region, growth in revenue was reported everywhere except for the group's Eastern Europe-Central Asia region. Notably growth in the group's Asian region is slowing, growth is growing in Africa and markets are recovering in North America and the UK. It is also worth noting that the group's cement and clinker sales volumes fell by 1.1% to 60.6Mt in the first nine months of the year.

Italcementi has reported a rise in revenue of 3% to Euro3.2bn for the first nine months of 2015. It reported a loss of Euro8.1m, down from a loss of Euro63.8m in the previous period. Its EBIT fell slightly to Euro166m. By region the group reported that 'positive' trends in North America, India and Morocco, together with reducing operating expenses in Europe, would be insufficient to counteract revenue losses in France and Egypt. Overall cement and clinker sales fell by 1.4% to 32.1Mt.

Compared to its 2014 results, HeidelbergCement seems set to recover some of its revenue and profit growth after fluctuating income since 2008. Meanwhile, Italcementi has been continuing to cut costs, rebuild its business and profitability. So there are no obvious shocks to the apparent value of either company at this stage. It is also worth noting that the good geographical complementarity of each company's assets could make any potential renegotiation less likely. Everybody looks set to gain something should the purchase go through.

The deal in late July 2015 announced that HeidelbergCement would be purchasing 45% of Italcementi's shares at a price of Euro10.60 per Italcementi share for a total price of Euro1.67bn. The only clause mentioned so far has been 'subject to contractual purchase price reductions'. The deal is still expected to be completed in the first half of 2016 following approval from competition authorities. Approval from the Competition Commission of India was announced in September 2015.

The diverging values of Lafarge and Holcim before their merger in mid-2015 had consequences that led to haggling over the deal and the removal of Bruno Lafont as the proposed CEO of LafargeHolcim. The difference here is that HeidelbergCement is buying Italcementi as opposed to merging with it. However, the performances of both companies remain paramount. Now as then the question will be: is the cost worth it?

For more information read Global Cement's article on the HeidelbergCement purchase of Italcementi in our September 2015 issue.

The past week has seen several quarterly financial results from producers in the world's second-largest cement industry: India. So far, they do not make for a great read from an economic perspective, although some players, including Birla Group and Sanghi Cement are yet to show their hands.

So let's kick off. For the quarter that ended on 30 September 2015, LafargeHolcim subsidiary Ambuja Cements saw its net profit slide by 36% year-on-year to US$23.6m compared to the same period of 2014. Its income fell by 4% to US$324m as it battled a one-off charge. ACC, LafargeHolcim's other Indian subsidiary, saw a profit of US$17.5m for the quarter, a year-on-year fall of 40% compared to 2014. Not great for the global number one player.

Other players to announce so far have included JK Cements, which reported a 58% fall in consolidated net profit to US$2.1m. Meanwhile, Century Textiles, which owns Century Cement, fared even worse. It actually posted a loss compared to a marginal profit in 2014, despite an increase in total income.

It has not been all doom and gloom however. UltraTech Cement, while it reported a drop in profit, was not as badly affected as the firms listed above. It recorded a 3.9% fall to a net profit of US$59.7m for the quarter, down from US$62.3m in the same period of 2014. This was reported as being better than expected according to a senior research analyst at Angel Broking, perhaps hinting at shaky ground under even these results.

So far, the exception to the lower profits and losses has been India Cements Ltd (ICL), which posted an almost five-fold growth in its net profit. It profit grew from US$1.14m to US$6.26m, which it said stemmed mainly from improved operating parameters and substantial reductions in its variable costs. Its operating profit grew to US$35.4m from US$27.9m. It expects performance to improve as it increases its capacity utilisation rate up, currently languishing at just 60%.

Does the company provide a model for other producers to follow? Perhaps. The company's managing director and vice-chairman of ICL, N Srinivasan, said that the company was poised for improved conditions in its markets. In the company's results he said, "Going forward, we see better times ahead. We had a tough time for two years and have achieved a turnaround by cutting costs and maintaining a healthy cement price." The fact that ICL has managed to 'maintain a healthy cement price' in times of low requires scrutiny in a separate column.

However, a possible take-away from the results released so far is that the larger producers seem to have greater immunity to the problems surrounding over-supply in India. Economies-of-scale and the ability to spread risk around different Indian markets tends to favour larger players like UltraTech. Conversely, a smaller player that finds itself 'stuck' in one of the weaker regional markets, must just sit tight and weather the storm. Either that or it can make itself into a strategic acquisition target for one of the larger groups.

We are still awaiting results from other players in the Indian market, but with low demand, it would be foolish to expect them to be significantly different from the above. Given this, two key factors will help determine whether the decline in profits continues or not. Firstly, India's Modi government is promising large-scale infrastructure projects, which would help boost demand for cement. The industry has heard such promises in the past, however, and may chose to be skeptical. Secondly, it is important to remember that lower profits are being seen at the moment, even despite lower coal costs. Any upward change in these costs and the pace may become too fast for some of the country's smaller producers.

Colombia: As of 1 March 2016, the current President of Cementos Argos, Jorge Mario Velasquez, will be the new President of the entire Argos group in Colombia.

Velasquez, born in Bogota in 1960, will replace the retiring Jose Alberto Velez. Velasquez joined Cementos Argos in 1984 and, on his way up within the company, has served as General Director of Cementos del Nare, President of Cementos Paz del Rio and Vice President of Logistics at Cementos Argos. He became the latter's President in June 2012. Velez has said that the main challenges awaiting Velasquez are the integration of Odinsa into Grupo Argos, the consolidation of Pactia (the property fund established with Conconcreto) and the expansion of Cementos Argos and Celsia.

A common refrain in the notes accompanying multinational corporate balance sheets are the adverse effects of currency exchange rates. So it goes this week with separate complaints from the Cement and Concrete Association of Malaysia and ARM Cement in Kenya. In Malaysia its local currency, the Ringgit, has fallen in value by 24% against the US Dollar since January 2015. The fall has been blamed on low prices for crude oil and for other commodities such as palm oil.

For the cement industry this is creating problems due to imported key inputs such as a coal and gypsum that are paid for in US Dollars. Similarly, clinker imports have risen by 20% as part of the same effect. The government hopes that infrastructure projects will prop up the construction sector for the time being. Local market leader Lafarge Malaysia has concurred with this cautiously. However, it is right to be realistic about the situation, as the problems with the falling value of the Ringgit seem to be reflected in its financial results.

Lafarge Malaysia has seen its revenue fall by 2.5% year-on-year to US$318m for the first six months of 2015 from US$326m for the same period in 2014. Net profit has fallen by 9% to US$32m. This follows a 3.8% year-on-year fall to US$640m for 2014 as a whole compared to US$666m in 2013. The drop in revenue was partly blamed on lower cement prices, aggravated by higher operating costs arising mainly from the increase in input and delivery costs. It also fits with the start of the fall in value of the Ringgit compared to the US Dollar since around the middle of 2014. Lafarge Malaysia's first half-year results in 2014 saw rises in revenue and net profit.

Lafarge Malaysia is far and away the market leader in cement production capacity in the country with a production capacity of 12Mt/yr, giving it a market share of nearly half the country's total capacity of around 25Mt/yr. However, it isn't the only cement producer struggling at present. YTL Corporation reported a 12.7% drop in revenue to US$3.85bn for its financial year that ended on 30 June 2015. Net profit fell by 31% to US$257m. Although the company operates across many business sectors, it too partly blamed the losses on its cement sector. This followed gains in profit, bolstered by its cement business, in the financial year that ended on 30 June 2014.

By contrast Cahya Mata Sarawak (CMS) Cement has benefitted from a construction boom in Sarawak state on the island of Borneo, a region separate from the rest of the country. On-going work on the Pan Borneo Highway has helped sales with other projects on the way. The sole producer with an integrated cement plant in the state ordered a cement grinding plant from Christian Pfeiffer in 2014 with commissioning planned for early 2016. It will be the company's third grinding plant in the state.

The effects of currency depreciation can be seen starkly in the financial results of Lafarge Malaysia and YTL Corporation. Infrastructure spending offers one route out of this as Lafarge are hoping and CMS Cement are experiencing in the relative isolation of Sarawak. However, a sustained low price of oil will test this even for a diversifying economy like Malaysia's. Cement producers in other oil producing nations should take note.