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Has China’s cement production peaked?
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
20 January 2016
Even the Chinese premier doesn't trust his country's GDP figures. Li Keqiang reportedly told a US ambassador this in 2007. He described Chinese GDP figures as 'man-made' and unreliable. Wikileaks then made the diplomatic report public a few years later. This anecdote has been much reported this week due to the latest gloomy economic figures from China. Its economy officially grew by 6.9% in 2015, its slowest rate in 25 years.
So what can a jittery world trust? Keqiang was reported to focus on three data samples to compensate for an unreliable GDP: electricity consumption, rail cargo volume and bank lending. Global Cement Magazine suggests that he should have followed one more: cement. What can cement tell us about the Chinese economy in recent years?
Chinese cement production fell by 4.9% to 2.35Bt/yr in 2015 according to newly published figures by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC). This is significant. Firstly, whether it is a true reflection of actual production or not, it is an admission by a Chinese state body that cement production is declining. Secondly, it signals the end of the rapid growth of the country's heavy industries through the 1990s and 2000s.
Figure 1 – Chinese cement production by quarter, 2014 – 2015
Figure 1 shows Chinese cement production by quarter in 2014 and 2015 using NBSC data. Two years are insufficient to pick out any major trends other than seasonal trends throughout each year. However, remove the slow winter months in the first quarter of each year and a steady decrease in production throughout 2014 and 2015 is apparent.
Figure 2 – Chinese cement production by year, 2005 – 2015
Figure 2 offers the context that Figure 1 lacked by comparing cement production from 2005 to 2015. Notable trends to point out are a slow down in growth in 2008, around the time of the global financial crash. Then production peaked in 2014 before falling in 2015. This data comes from the United States Geological Survey and then latterly the NBSC.
Figure 3 – Chinese cement production by year and GDP/capita, 2005 – 2015
Figure 3 shows annual growth in cement production against growth in GDP. The similarity of each line here, or the rate of growth, and where they diverge is what is interesting here. Up until the late 2000s the trend is similar until GDP/capita starts to grow faster than cement production. At this point either the Chinese economy has started to acknowledge that it can build all the infrastructure and housing it needs or perhaps the slowing growth in cement production has started to point to slowing GDP/capita growth.
2015 could be a blip if growth resumes in 2016. Yet the other heavy industry metrics suggest otherwise. Electric power and steel production also fell for the first time in 2015. Coal production dropped for the second year in a row. The Chinese housing market started to slow noticeably in 2014, cement production followed by slowing down and now the country's GDP growth has also slowed. Alongside this the industry's capacity reduction programme officially started in late 2013. Cement consumption per capita for China has long suggested that Chinese growth was due to slow. It is reassuring to finally see the official production figures reflect this. The real question though is what happens next.
Indian cement industry now on sale!
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
13 January 2016
Last week we promised reasons to be cheerful for the cement industry. We only have one to offer this week but it's a good one. At present three Indian cement companies are on sale: Lafarge India, Reliance Cements and Jaiprakash Associates. If these sales complete then it represents an opportunity for the Indian cement industry to reorganise itself and stride forward when growth recovers.
Lafarge India upped its sales proposal to the Competition Commission of India (CCI) on 6 January 2016 to sell its entire 11Mt/yr portfolio. Originally as part of the LafargeHolcim merger agreements the CCI asked Lafarge to sell 5.2Mt/yr of production capacity in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand in eastern India. However the deal was reliant on the original buyer, Birla Corporation, securing limestone mining rights. Birla failed to do so. Now Lafarge India has decided to sell everything instead. Naturally, following its Euro8bn spending spree in 2015 CRH has been linked to the sale by Indian media.
Then following press speculation Reliance Infrastructure confirmed to the Bombay Stock Exchange on 11 January 2016 that it was at an 'advanced stage of discussions with potential buyers for divesting the cement business of the company.' Reliance's cement arm, Reliance Cement, holds three cement plants in Maihar in Madhya Pradesh, Kundanganj in Uttar Pradesh and Butibori in Maharashtra with a total production capacity of 5.8Mt/yr. In addition to this, the company is also developing a 5Mt/yr cement plant at Wani in Maharashtra. The Reliance sale has been reported upon since early 2015. The difference this time is that Reliance responded to local press reports that it was about to sell to Birla Corporation or a couple of other private equity firms.
Finally, the third sale concerns Jaiprakash Associates' on-going attempts to sell its remaining cement assets to service its debts. Jaiprakash Associates cement subsidiary, Jaypee Cement, holds eight plants in India with a cement production capacity of 11Mt/yr. In addition it holds six cement grinding plants with a capacity of 10.7Mt/yr. Despite reported attempts to sell the entire division in one Jaypee has actually ended up selling its cement assets in a piecemeal fashion one or two at a time. The most recent sale being announced this week is to sell its Bhilai Jaypee Cement to Shree Cement. This follows other sales to HeidelbergCement and UltraTech in 2015.
None of these sales are new exactly but the combined production capacity of these plants comes to just under 28Mt/yr. This represents 9% of India's total national cement production capacity of 310Mt/yr. Any player somehow able to weasel their way into striking a deal for all of these plants would immediately become one of the country's biggest producers.
It would definitely be a case of buyer beware though. Credit agency ICRA recently reported that it expects that cement demand growth will be a 'modest' 4% in the 2015 - 2016 financial year before picking up in the following year. This follows poor growth in cement demand in the first half of 2015 and even declines in March and April 2015. ICRA also expected the country capacity utilisation to drop to 70% in the 2016 financial year, down from 77% in the 2012 financial year. That 7% drop in the utilisation is awfully close to the 9% of Indian national production capacity that the cement assets currently on sale from Lafarge India, Reliance Cement and Jaypee Cement. Unsurprisingly, the buyers of Indian cement assets have been picking and choosing their plants one-by-one so far.
A pessimist's guide to the cement industry in 2016
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
06 January 2016
We're going to start 2016 with a list of some of the worst things that could happen to the global cement industry this year. The idea is taken from Bloomberg Business who ran 'A Pessimist's Guide to the World in 2016' in mid-December 2015. For some of these suggestions there will be both winners and losers. Remember: forewarned is forearmed.
Continuing low oil prices hit Russia and other petro-propped economies
Cheaper fossil fuels should mean cheaper energy bills for cement producers. However, that saving must be compared to the overall cost to the global cement industry of poor construction markets in Russia and other economies that rely on oil. For example, Russian construction output fell by 4.5% to US$81bn in 2014 according to PMR. It is possible that the fuels bill saving worldwide is greater than the contraction of certain construction markets. If it is though, is this a price that the cement industry is willing to pay?
China enters a recession
The long-expected Chinese 'hard landing' seems closer than ever, as economic growth slows. It hasn't happened yet (according to official figures at least) but the 7% drop in Chinese markets on 4 January 2015 gives observers the jitters. The financial reverberations from a full Chinese financial crash would be felt around the world, derailing emerging economies due to reducing demand for exports and commodities. Naturally, construction markets would suffer. This would add to the woes currently being experienced by Brazil, Russia and South Africa. The other worry for the cement industry specifically might be the complications from a desperate Chinese industry trying to flood the outside world with even more of its products and services, including lots of cement.
Climate change impacts cement plants
Normally when it comes to climate change the cement industry worries about the effects of carbon taxation and pollution controls. However, media reporting about flooding in the UK in late December 2015 and strong El Niño effects elsewhere makes a pessimist wonder about the effects of hotter and wetter weather upon the infrastructure of the industry. The cost to repair the flooded Cemex UK South Ferriby cement plant in 2014 was rumoured to run to Euro14m and production stopped for a whole year. Costs like these are something the industry could do without.
International sanctions remain in place for Iran
Hoping that lifting economic sanctions from Iran will boost the fortunes of multinational cement producers and equipment manufacturers may be wishful thinking. Yet if the sanctions stay in place due to deteriorating relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia then nobody can discover what opportunities there might be in the world's fourth largest cement producing nation. Of course Iran's geographical neighbours across the Gulf (and in Pakistan) might be hoping that the sanctions stay in place for a very long time indeed.
Sub-Saharan Africa builds production capacity too fast
Multinationals and local cement producers alike are scrambling to build cement plants in sub-Saharan Africa. Demand for cement and low per capita consumption suggest that it is a clear investment opportunity as development kicks in. However, we have already reported on scraps between local cement associations and importers from other continents. If the cement producers build capacity faster than these countries develop, then a crash can't be too far fround the corner and everybody loses.
The UK leads an exodus from the European Union
For the cement industry a UK exit, to be voted on later in 2016, from the European Union (EU) isn't necessarily a bad things. What would be negative though is a badly handled exit process as vast swathes of trade legislation is renegotiated. What a 'Brexit' might initiate are further exits from the EU, leading to further trade disruption on a larger scale. None of this would aid Europe's economic recovery in the short term.
US Presidential elections slow the construction market
Irish bookmaker Paddy Power is currently placing odds of 9/2 for Donald Trump to be elected the next US president in late 2016. He's the second favourite candidate after Hillary Clinton despite not even having been nominated as the Republican party's presidential candidate yet. Whoever becomes the next president, the political uncertainty that occurs as the election progresses may impact upon the US construction market. It would be unfortunate to discover that the sector is weaker than expected if, say, the election rhetoric turns nasty.
Next week: reasons to be cheerful.
Happy New Year from Global Cement!
2015 in cement
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
16 December 2015
Here are the major stories from the cement industry in 2015 as the year draws to a close. Remember this is just one view of the year's events. If you think we've missed anything important let us know via LinkedIn, Twitter or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..
Will the year of the mega-mergers pay off?
2015 showed a global cement industry that was consolidating. Amongst the multinational producers Lafarge and Holcim finished their merger and HeidelbergCement announced that it was buying Italcementi. Yet alongside this international trend the large Chinese cement producers, who represent over a quarter of the world's production capacity, have continued their own-government-favoured consolidation. The on-going boardroom scuffles at Shanshui have been a lively example of this.
Where this will leave the cement industry as a whole in 2016 is uncertain but mergers and consolidation are no 'magic bullet' for difficult market conditions. After the fanfare subsided from the launch of LafargeHolcim the first quarterly report emerged in late November 2015 reporting falling net sales, net volumes and profit markers.
BRICing it – growth stalls in Brazil, Russia, India and China
The economies of the BRIC nations – Brazil, Russia, India and China – have all suffered in 2015. Brazil and Russia are enduring recessions. Growth in China and India is slowing down. All of this has a knock on in their respective construction sectors.
Over in China, we report today that production capacity utilisation is estimated to be 65% and that cement companies lost US$2.63bn in the first nine months of 2015. The same source says that at least 500Mt/yr of production capacity needs to be eliminated. That represents nearly a third of Chinese total production capacity or about an eighth of global cement production capacity.
Multinationals African plans accelerate
One consequence of all these international mergers is the transformation of the situation in Africa. Suddenly LafargeHolcim has become the biggest cement producer on the continent, followed by HeidelbergCement, Dangote and PPC. Africa becomes the big hope for the multinationals as established markets continues to flounder and growth in Asian and South American markets slackens. Perversely though, should African development growth slow it may cast a poor light on the mega-mergers of 2015 in the coming years.
Dangote Cement is growing fast and it may overtake HeidlebergCement soon as the second largest cement producer in Africa. Yet it may not be plain sailing for the Nigerian company. As we report today, sources in Gambia say that Dangote's plans to open a cement plant are on hold in part to protect its domestic suppliers.
The Gambian government has denied a licence to Dangote to open a cement plant. Dangote has built its empire in recent years by forcing out cement importers from Nigeria. As it expands in other countries in Africa it may now be facing a backlash to playing the nationalist card at home as other countries too desire 'self-sufficiency' in cement production.
Iran shakes off the sanctions
In July 2015 Iran and the P5+1 countries agreed to lift trade sanctions from Iran. The implications for the local cement industry are immense given that the country was the joint-fourth largest producer in 2014, based on United States Geological Survey data. Remove the sanctions and, in theory, the local economy should boom leading to plenty of construction activity. Notably, at the launch of LafargeHolcim the new CEO Eric Olsen was asked for the new group's position on Iran. It didn't have one but this will change.
China expands along the Silk Road
China's cement industry may be suffering at home but it has been steadily expanding in Central Asia. Notably Huaxin Cement has plants in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and it has new projects in the pipeline. Business may be down at home but steady advancement abroad may offer the Chinese cement industry the lifeline it needs.
Cop out at COP21?
And finally... The 2015 Paris Climate Conference announced a diplomatic coup d'etat in December 2015. However, it apparently forgot to include any binding targets. The Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) pre-empted the decision by announced its aim to reduce CO2 emissions by clinker producers by 20 - 25% by 2030... Provided the entire cement industry follows its lead. Cement plants burning vast swathes of dirty fossil fuels may not have to worry quite yet.
For more a more detailed look at trends in the cement industry check out the Global Cement Top 100 Report in the December 2015 issue of Global Cement Magazine.
Global Cement Weekly will return on 6 January 2016. Enjoy the holidays if you have them.
Cement Sustainability Initiative sets out ambitions as it waits for COP21 result
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
09 December 2015
The Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) has announced its aim to reduce CO2 emissions by clinker producers by 20 - 25% by 2030. It made the announcement as part of a new action plan launched on 8 December 2015 at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21).
Most of the plan follows the CSI's existing aims announced to chime with the on-going COP21 negotiations. The plan depends on a long-term agreement being brokered successfully in Paris at COP21 as a whole. It then recommends policy in each of its key areas to achieve its goals. All of this sits beneath a general policy statement to, '...encourage policies for predictable, objective, level-playing and stable CO2 constraints and incentives as well as energy frameworks on an international level.'
The Cement Action Plan is part of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development Low Carbon Technology Partnerships initiative (LCTPi). It puts together a series of measures to aspire to reduce CO2 emissions by 1Gt by 2030 compared to business as usual. However this reduction is dependent on the entire cement industry getting involved, not just the existing 26 CSI members. Together these 26 members represent just a quarter of world cement production.
The drop in emissions is based on the so-called 'best-in-class' CSI company 2020 targets. To reach this the CSI is suggesting actions including focusing on recording Chinese cement industry emissions and energy usage, improving energy efficiency, promoting co-processing of alternative fuels, further lowering the clinker factor of cements, developing new low-energy and low-carbon cements, looking at the entire build chain to reduce emissions and considering other options such as carbon capture and storage. The plan had the support of the CEOs of 16 cement companies at its launch, with CNBM CEO Song Zhiping adding his assent at the event also.
The most prominent step is the clear focus on China for data capture using existing CSI tools such as the CO2 and Energy Accounting and Reporting Standard for the Cement Industry, the Getting the Numbers Right (GNR) and the Cement Technology Roadmaps. As the CSI puts it, "What gets measured gets managed."
Given that China produces around 60% of the world's cement, according to United States Geological Survey data, the focus on China is essential. Currently the CSI has six Chinese members: CNBM, Sinoma, China Resources, Tianrui Group, West China Cement and Yati Group. Notable exceptions to CSI membership from the world's biggest cement producers include the Chinese producers Anhui Conch and Taiwan Cement, as well as Russia's Eurocement and India's Aditya Birla Group.
So, the CSI has set out its stall ahead of a hoped-for global agreement on climate change at the Paris conference. If some sort of legal agreement is reached then the CSI has its recommendations ready in the wings to hand to policymakers everywhere to promote its aims. If no agreement is reached then the plan loses momentum although pushing forwards makes sense where possible, starting with better CO2 data reported especially in China.
Problems lie ahead for the CSI whatever happens in Paris given that the LCTPi Cement Action Plan is a series of policy suggestions from only 16 cement producers aiming for a non-binding target. For example, without some sort of world legal agreement there are clear commercial advantages for non-CSI members to burn cheap fossil fuels in their kilns and undercut their more environmentally pious rivals. The sustaining low cost of oil, dipping below US$40/barrel this week, can only aggravate this situation and distract the strategies of fuel buyers away from co-processing upgrades.