Analysis

It’s been a pessimistic month for the Indian cement industry with Ministry of Commerce & Industry data showing that cement production has fallen year-on-year every month since December 2016. This was followed by the Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA) saying that the industry was sitting on 100Mt/yr of excess production capacity. Now, the credit ratings agency ICRA has followed the data and downgraded its forecast for cement demand growth to not more than 4% for the 2017 - 2018 financial year.

Graph 1: Annual cement production in India. Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Graph 2: Monthly cement production growth rate year-on-year in India: Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Graph 1 shows a production peak in the 2015 - 2016 financial year before falling monthly production broke the trend in the 2016 - 2017 period. Graph 2 pinpoints the month it started to go wrong, November 2016, when the government introduced its demonetisation policy. Production growth went negative the following month in December 2017 and it hasn’t managed to right itself since then and grow. It’s convenient to blame the government for the slump in production but it troughed in February 2017 before taking a lower level of decline since then.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) annual report in August 2017 suggests that the policy failed in its principal purpose of reducing the kind of corruption that a cash heavy economy can hide such as tax avoidance. People reportedly managed to find ways to bypass the bank deposit limit and may have successfully laundered large amounts of cash without being caught. However, as commentators like the Financial Times have pointed out, the longer term implications of forcing the economy towards digital payments and increasing the tax base could yet be beneficial overall.

Graph 3: Cement production capacity utilisation rates in India. Source: UltraTech Cement.

Moving on, the CMA has blamed production overcapacity for the current mess and Graph 3 shows the problem starkly. If anything the CMA appears to have downplayed the over capacity crisis facing India, as UltraTech Cement’s figures (using data from the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion) show an overcapacity of 155Mt in the 2016 – 2017 year and this will grow to a forecast 157Mt in the next financial year, even though the utilisation rate is expected to rise slightly. UltraTech Cement’s estimates don’t see the utilisation rate topping 70% until the 2020 – 2021 financial year. Analysts quoted in the Mint business newspaper concur, although they reckoned it would the rate would bounce sooner, in 2019 - 2020. Last month when the CMA moaned about the industry's excess capacity it pinned its hopes on infrastructure schemes like the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train. This prompted an official at JK Cements to say that he didn't think that one train line was going to make much of a difference.

This is one reason why ICRA’s and the other credit agencies’ growth rate forecasts for cement demand are important, because they indicate how fast India might be able to close the gap between production capcity and demand. Unfortunately demonetisation scuppered ICRA’s growth prediciton for 2016 – 2017. It forecast a rate of 6% but it actually fell by 1.2%! So downgrading its forecast for 2017 – 2018, with fears of weather and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the second half of the year, is ominious. Major cement producers such as Ultratech Cement and Ambuja Cement have based their road to recovery in their latest investor presentations on a 6% growth rate or higher. Pitch it lower and the gap doesn’t close. Here’s hoping for a brisk second half.

The last week marked a step change to the US industry with the news that Ireland’s CRH has agreed to buy Ash Grove Cement. The latter is the largest remaining cement producer still owned by an American company. Its history dates back 135 years to its founding in 1882, with links to the Sunderland family for over a century. Following the acquisition, each of the top five cement producing firms in the US will be operated by multinational corporations based in foreign countries.

Although this scenario is not new to many other countries around the world, it is rare for a nation with a cement industry of this scale. The US is the third biggest cement producer worldwide. Out of the top ten cement producing nations Global Cement Magazine identified in its Top 100 Report 2017 feature in December 2016 only Egypt doesn’t have a local company to match the multinationals. China has China National Building Material (CNBM), for example and India has UltraTech cement and so on and so forth.

The actual sale covers Ash Grove Cement’s eight cement plants and 23 cement terminals, as well as its ready mix concrete and aggregate businesses, for US$3.5bn. Altogether its cement plants have a production capacity of 9.5Mt/yr and this really puts into contrast the Cementir Italia deal last week. HeidelbergCement has agreed to buy that company for around Euro57/t. CRH is buying Ash Grove Cement for US$368/t. That’s more that five times as much!

To be fair they are very different markets, with Italy’s cement sector consolidating near the bottom of a business cycle and the US growing with some promise. For comparison with other recent US acquisitions, CRH is offering to pay about the same as Summit Materials did to Lafarge for a cement plant and seven terminals in mid-2015. Other than that a few of the more recent transactions have been between US$200 – 300/t. The gradual price inflation for cement production capacity indicates that there is confidence in the US cement market.

In terms of CRH’s enhanced presence in North America following the completion of the deal, it currently operates two cement plants in the US: the American Cement Sumterville plant in Florida, a joint venture with Elementia, and the Trident plant in Montana. The CRH US division also runs five terminals in the Midwest and Northeast. This compliments Ash Grove Cement’s presence in the West, Midwest and South. Throw in CRH’s Canadian cement plants in Ontario and Quebec and CRH has the makings of a seriously strong cement business in North America. The only obvious impediment could be the close proximity of the CRH Trident plant and the Ash Grove Cement Montana City plant. Both are in Montana within 115km of each other and they are the only integrated plants in the state. A Federal Trade Commission arranged divestment in this location seems likely.

Ash Grove Cement’s chairman Charlie Sunderland, described CRH as his company’s biggest customer when the acquisition was announced. Buying Ash Grove Cement fills in one more piece in CRH’s construction materials puzzle in North America. Its American divisions have generated more than half of its revenue since at least 2014 dominating asphalt, aggregate and ready mix concrete markets. Yet it has lacked a cement market presence to match this. This changes when the deal with Ash Grove Cement completes.

We said to expect more consolidation in Italy. Well, today it happened. Last time Global Cement Weekly covered the country, in June 2017, it reported upon the Buzzi Unicem deal to buy Cementizillo. Today, HeidelbergCement announced that it is going to buy Cementir Italia from Cementir Holding for Euro315m.

Our first reaction is that the deal seems cheap. The agreement covers five integrated cement plants and two cement grinding plants with a total capacity of 5.5Mt/yr, as well as the network of terminals and concrete plants. HeidelbergCement is buying all of this for Euro57/t. This suggests a downward trend given that Buzzi Unicem paid Euro80/t for the Cementizillo units in mid-2017. Although, Cementir only paid Euro38/t when it purchased Sacci in mid-2016.

Cementir’s acquisition of Compagnie des Ciments Belges (CCB) boosted its sales revenue, volume and operating profit in 2016 and in the first half of 2017. However these figures suffered on a like-for-like basis due to falling revenue in Turkey and Malaysia. Overall revenue rose in Italy for the company in 2016 due to a growing ready mix concrete business. However, with this removed, its sales revenue would have fallen by 14% year-on-year due to a 13.5% decrease in the sales volumes of cement.

Cementir Holding chief executive officer (CEO) Francesco Caltagirone has framed the sale of Cementir Italia in terms of improved financial leverage. He’s placed it at close to 0.5x by the end of 2018. This, he says, will allow the group to “…take the opportunities arising in the future, as it has happened during the last twelve months.” By this he likely means the purchase of CCB. Given the low cost for what Cementir picked up the bankrupt Sacci, it makes one wonder whether their plan all along was to leave Italy and they just happened to pick up a bargain along the way.

Meanwhile, HeidelbergCement has framed its acquisition in terms of preparing its presence in the Italian market for the future when the recovery kicks in. The usual talk about synergies is also there and Italian workers for both Italcementi and Cementir Italia will be wondering what this means for their jobs. Given that the group’s overall sales have struggled to grow so far in 2017, the company may be telling the truth when it says it’s banking on the medium to long term in Italy. After all, in its half-year report for 2017, it described the Italian economy as subdued and reported cement sales volumes as ‘stable.’

Once the deal completes, Cementir Holding will be an Italian-based cement company without any production facilities in Italy. Unless the group is planning to re-enter its home market at a later date, it does suggest a certain lack of confidence at home. Let’s see if HeidelbergCement has the nerve to stick it out.

Weather always seems like an excuse in cement company financial reports. It seems that it can pop up when a producer has nothing else to blame for its poor performance. Except, of course, when there has actually been some bad weather. With this in mind the weather is likely to have a rather larger presence in the next set of results for companies in the Caribbean and Florida in the aftermath of Hurricane Irma. The storm tore across the region in a rough north-western bearing, reaching Category Five hurricane status on the Saffir–Simpson scale with sustained winds of over 252km/hr. It caused loss of life and mass destruction to property and infrastructure.

Bottom lines flutter in the wind as construction markets upend in the wake of the weather. Yet cement companies have a more direct relationship with extreme weather events. Cement plants themselves are large industrial sites with staff and equipment that are vulnerable to the elements. This is covered by a company’s resilience strategy but it can include things like reducing non-essential staff levels, shutting down production and securing a site. Cemex USA, for example, set up telephone lines to help employees in need of assistance for both Hurricane Harvey in Texas in late August 2017 and Irma this week. Titan America shut down its Florida operations over the weekend ahead of Irma and then started reopening them on 12 September 2017.

To look at one facet of preparing a cement plant shutting a clinker kiln down with adequate notice, like for a maintenance period, is one thing. Yet doing it in an emergency is an entirely different proposition as the kiln generally needs time to cool down. Global Cement discovered what happens when a kiln is simply stopped when it visited the Cemex South Ferriby plant in the UK. The plant suffered a complete electrical outage following a tidal surge at the site. A 22m-long section of one of the kiln shells had to be replaced because it had been distorted by the sudden cooling.

Secondly, the concrete that cement is used to make plays a key role in what the Portland Cement Association (PCA) and others call resilient construction. Typically concrete structures and buildings survive extreme weather events better than other weaker building materials. Although a wide range of other factors such as building design, foundations and roofing construction are also important. Notably, much of the footage that emerged during the storm in Florida was shot from concrete buildings. As Cary Cohrs, former chairman of the PCA put it: "The greenest building is the one still standing." At the time of this push 2013 Cohrs and the PCA were lobbying to strengthen US building codes and standards. It is likely that the association will renew its efforts in the wake of Irma.

With the winds slackening, the clean up operation starts. Cemex USA’s Houston Terminal said it had reopened for business after Harvey despite being two feet under water a week earlier. As reports start to emerge about the scale of the devastation in the region following Hurricane Irma the insured losses have been estimated at US$20 – 65bn by analysts quoted by the Financial Times. Two things are certain though. One, bad weather is likely to make an appearance in the third quarter financial reports and, two, the rebuilding is going to need lots of cement.

ARM Cement’s declining fortunes this week may signal the end of the current growth cycle in the Kenyan cement industry. The cement producer posted a 20% year-on-year drop in its sales revenue to US$52m for the first half of 2017. Its financial returns have been turbulent since 2015. However, inward investment from the UK’s CDC Group in 2016 had appeared to help the company enabling it to pay of debts and even consider an upgrade project to the grinding capacity at its Athi River plant.

Graph 1: Cement production in Kenya for first half of year, 2013 - 2017. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

Graph 2: Cement consumption in Kenya for first five months of year, 2013 - 2017. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

Unfortunately it now appears that the Kenyan cement market may have peaked in 2016. As can be seen from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics figures in Graph 1 and 2, production hit a high of 3.31Mt in the first half of 2016 and it has fallen to 3.18Mt for the same period in 2017. Consumption too has fallen, to 2.5Mt for the first five months of 2017. At the same time the value of building plans approved by the Nairobi City Council dropped by 12% to US$1.02bn for the first five months of 2017 with falls in both residential and non-residential applications although the decline in residential was more pronounced. One of the country’s larger infrastructure projects, the Standard Gauge Railway from Mombasa to Nairobi entered its final stage of construction towards the end of 2016 with the completion of track laying.

Bamburi Cement has also reported falling revenue and profit so far in 2017. Its turnover fell by 8% to US$170 and its profit decreased by 36% to US$18m for the half year. Bamburi blamed it on a contracting market, low private sector investment leading to residential sector issues, delays in some infrastructure projects and droughts. The drought also hit the company’s operating profit via higher energy costs. On the plus side though Bamburi’s subsidiary in neighbouring Uganda did record a good performance.

It’s likely that the general election in Kenya in early August 2017 has slowed down the construction industry through uncertainty about infrastructure investment and general fears about political unrest. Thankfully these latter concerns have appeared unfounded so far but the memory of the disorder following the poll in 2007, where over 1000 people died, remains acute. And of course the 2017 election is not over yet following the intervention of the Supreme Court to nullify the result of the first ballot and call for a second. A longer election period with the impending rerun will further add to the pressure on the construction and cement industries.

An industry report on East Africa in February 2017 by the Dyer & Blair Investment Bank fleshes out much of the situation in the region. One particular point it makes though is that, as it stands at present, building materials may be too expensive to grow the market fully. Dyer & Blair suggest that lower construction costs and more affordable home ownership methods might be the key to driving low end housing demands and in turn this might grow cement consumption.

With lots of new production capacity coming online both locally and in neighbouring countries such as Uganda and Ethiopia, the Kenyan cement market faces the dilemma of trying to balance the medium to long-term demographics with the picture on the ground. Low per capita cement consumption suggests growing markets but if the demand isn’t present in the short term then the impetus for cement producers to expand shrivels especially with aggressive imports, rising energy costs and growing local competition. Once the election period finishes the picture will be clearer but the boom times may have abated for now.