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Update on the cement industry in Central Asia
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
27 April 2016
A few news stories in recent weeks have emerged concerning falling cement sales in Central Asian countries. Steppe Cement reported in mid-April 2016 that its cement sales had fallen by 12% year-on-year to US$5.98m in the first quarter of 2016 from US$6.79m in the same period in 2015. The cement producer noted an overall drop of 16% in the cement market in Kazakhstan, with a slowing reduction in March 2016 compared to the preceding four months. It forecast that the domestic cement market would contract by 1.1Mt in 2016 to 8.5Mt. The country has a cement production capacity of 11.85Mt/yr according to Global Cement Directory 2016 data. So on average this would see a drop in the capacity utilisation rate to 72% from 81%.
Likewise, Italcementi reported a fall in cement consumption in the fourth quarter of 2015 although overall in 2015 it reported consumption up by 9%. It is currently upgrading its Shymkent cement plant to a dry kiln with testing planned for early 2016. Meanwhile, HeidelbergCement – the other multinational present in the country, reported cement sales growth of over 9% due in part to the ramp-up of its new CaspiCement cement plant. How this will turn out after HeidelbergCement takes control of Italcementi remains to be seen.
Then, Holcim Azerbaijan reported that its sales had fallen by 37% to US$56m in 2015. It blamed the resultant loss it made on not being able to cut its production costs fast enough to match the falling revenue. The parent company LafargeHolcim blamed it on a ‘significant’ decline in public and private construction. Elsewhere, the World Bank reported a 13% drop in the construction sector in the second half of 2015 as the government cut investment.
Tajikistan may have broken this pattern as it reported that its cement production volumes rose by 33% to 373,000t in the first quarter of 2016. Over half of this output came from the 1Mt/yr Huaksin Ghayyur Cement plant that was commissioned in March 2016. The same news source reported government estimates that local demand will be 3.5Mt/yr in 2016. Similarly, Turkmenistan reported growing cement production in 2015 due to the opening of the 1.4Mt/yr Polimeks cement plant in Lebap. Otherwise there has been little reported recently from the cement industries in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan although the World Bank has reported that their economies are in reasonable shape.
The multinational cement producers all noted the economic problems caused by low oil prices in the Central Asian countries in which they operate. In February 2016 this was reinforced by the International Monetary Fund after its latest visit to Azerbaijan. The World Bank also expects little growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the region in 2016. Low oil prices have followed economic problems in Russia that have also impacted upon the region due to its economic ties with that country and membership of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
This is bad news for the local markets but it is especially bad news for the Chinese cement industry. As China has faced production overcapacity and falling prices at home, its suppliers and producers have sped off down the Silk Road to seek expansion prospects elsewhere. With this route blocked, the Chinese industry faces one fewer opportunity to avoid the crunch at home.
For more information of the cement industries in Central Asia read Global Cement's feature on the region from January 2016
Dalmia challenges the Lafarge India sale
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
20 April 2016
Dalmia Cement (Bharat) threw a spanner in the works of the sale of Lafarge India this week. The cement producer, part of Dalmia Group, appealed against the Competition Commission of India’s (CCI) revised approval of the sale in February 2016. Dalmia challenged the CCI’s approval on procedural grounds querying both the revised and original order for the sale. Subsequently the sale has been delayed until a hearing in May 2016.
Dalmia’s objections concern how the CCI’s original approval in March 2015 interacts with the revised approval given in February 2016. Lafarge India was originally asked by the CCI in February 2015 to sell off 5.2Mt/yr of cement production capacity in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand in eastern India. The request was a condition to allow the merger of Lafarge and Holcim in the country. Lafarge lined up Birla Corporation to buy the two cement plants but an ambiguous amendment to the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) (MMDR) Act killed the deal. Then Lafarge India, a subsidiary of LafargeHolcim, announced that is was selling all of its assets in India. This includes three cement plants and two grinding stations with a total capacity of around 11Mt/yr.
Dalmia’s appeal may be planned to slow down the sale of a rival in the Indian cement business. Dalmia Group is the fifth largest cement producer in India with a capacity of 14.5Mt/yr. Lafarge India is, to an extent, a lame duck rival whilst the legal wranglings drag on.
However, the appeal may have a more serious side. A statement from the lawyers representing Dalmia also mentioned a challenge against the purchase requirements from the original CCI approval in March 2015. Specifically that any purchaser, “shall not have (directly or indirectly) operational capacity exceeding 5% of the total installed capacity in the relevant geographic market.” The confusion here is where that ‘relevant’ area refers to.
Originally the CCI designated this as Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal. And unsurprisingly, Dalmia holds more than 5% of production capacity in that region. If the CCI expands the relevant geographic area to more regions of the country then Dalmia’s market share is likely to fall. Local media reported that a bid for the Lafarge India assets by private equity firm KKR, which holds equity in a Dalmia subsidiary, was denied by the CCI. Cue the legal challenge.
It seems unlikely that the appeal by Dalmia will slow the sale down too much. If it is accepted then the CCI will have to reissue its approval for a second time and the sale will be delayed by a few months. If it is denied then the sale will proceed after a delay of one month. Either way the affair demonstrates how prized the Lafarge India assets have become. Indian local media reported that at least nine bids were made. It will be fascinating to see the price the winning bid makes when it is released.
Update on HeidelbergCement acquisition of Italcementi
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
13 April 2016
HeidelbergCement released more detail on its plans to buy Italcementi last week. The main points were that Italcementi’s operations in Belgium will be sold, the Italcementi brand will be retained, its research and development (R&D) centre will assume responsibilities for the entire group and up to 260 job losses are expected in Bergamo. The integration plan is expected to be complete by 2020.
Following an update in HeidelbergCement’s preliminary financial results for 2015 in February 2016, this was more focused on the practicalities of taking over a company. Sales of assets in Belgium were expected from the moment the deal was announced in July 2015. Between them the two companies operate three of the country’s four cement plants, holding 73% of the market by cement production capacity. Selling up Italcementi’s Belgian subsidiary Compagnie des Ciments Belges will maintain the existing market balance. Once this is done, from a cement sector perspective, interaction from the European Commission on the deal should merely be a formality.
Interestingly, no plans to sell assets in the US were announced. This is more ambitious on HeidelbergCement’s part because the acquisition has far bigger implications in that country. Merging Italcementi’s Essroc subsidiary and HeidelbergCement’s Lehigh Hanson subsidiary will see HeidelbergCement become the new second largest cement producer in the US with around 16.4Mt/yr. LafargeHolcim had a relatively easy ride from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) having to sell two integrated cement plants, two slag grinding plants and a series of terminals. As HeidelbergCement will become the second largest cement producer it seems unlikely that the FTC will be too demanding. However, post-acquisition the cement producer will own cement plants within 75 miles of each other in Pennsylvania and in Maryland and West Virginia. The FTC may take exception to this but perhaps HeidelbergCement is trying their luck to see if it can get away with it.
The decision to retain Italcementi’s i.Lab R&D centre in Bergamo, Italy raises questions about what will happen to the Heidelberg Technology Centre (HTC) in Leimen, Germany. The focus here is on making Bergamo the ‘product’ R&D division for the entire group. i.Lab was opened in early 2012 to fanfare, based in a building designed by architect Richard Meier and it cost Euro40m to build. How this fits with HeidelbergCement’s existing Global R&D team at the HTC remains to be seen.
Job losses of up to 260 personnel at Bergamo are regrettable but hardly unexpected. It may not be much comfort for any staff members facing redundancy but this figure is well below the figures bandied about in the media in late 2015 of first around 1000 and then nearer 500. Another 170 personnel will also be offered relocation packages taking the impact of the reorganisation up to about 400 of Italcementi’s 2500 workforce in Italy.
Looking at the wider situation with the acquisition this week, HeidelbergCement announced a record contract for Norcem, its Norwegian subsidiary, to supply 280,000t of cement over three years for an infrastructure project. Then, Carlo Pesenti, the chief executive officer of Italcementi, was reported making comments about the business’ expansion plans in Thailand and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Projects in Myanmar and Cambodia look likely once the acquisition is complete. Finally, the ratings agency Moody’s was drumming up attention for a market report by pointing out the implications for the multinational cement producers in India if a proposed rise in infrastructure spending gets approved. In summary HeidelbergCement and Italcementi are unlikely to benefit due to their southern Indian spread of assets and local production overcapacity.
HeidelbergCement may not be getting it all its own way but the acquisition of Italcementi remains on track so far. All eyes will be on how the US FTC responds to the deal.
Grinding down on demand for slag
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
06 April 2016
Tata Steel put up its UK business for sale last week. The Indian multinational declared that enough was enough having reported losses of over Euro2.5bn in the territory over five years. Non-UK readers may well wonder what the fuss is about. UK crude steel production comprised 10.9Mt in 2015 or about 0.7% of global production according to World Steel Association data according to World Steel Association data. By contrast the country produced 9.3Mt of cement in 2014 or about 0.2% of world production according to CEMBUREAU data according to CEMBUREAU data.
The UK’s flailing steel industry is worth discussing here for two reasons. Firstly, any decline in the local iron and steel industry will have implications for the supplementary cementitious materials (SCM) market as slag levels vary. Secondly, the cement industry in Europe may have lessons for a fellow heavy industry facing capacity rationalisation.
UK ground granulated blastfurnace slag (GGBS) production levels are low compared to total world supply. However, the UK Competition Commission certainly took note of the GGBS market in 2014. It was worried by LafargeTarmac’s and Hanson’s prominence in both the local GGBS supply chain and local cement production. At that time it ordered the HeidelbergCement subsidiary Hanson to sell one of its slag grinding plants to increase competition in the supply chain for GGBS. A GGBS plant in Scunthorpe was eventually sold to Francis Flowers in July 2015.
The general point here is that a Tata sale of its UK operations could have ramifications for the UK GGBS sector as existing deals are renegotiated following the shakeup. It would be even worse for the local slag market if any of the plants closed. No doubt the Competition Commission would also want to have its say to maintain some sort of competition in an already concentrated market. The UK cement market has been the bright spot in the multinational cement producers’ European regions in 2015. However, construction growth is starting to slow again with hints that the looming European Referendum in June 2016 may be having a negative effect. Uncertainty over GGBS supplies is not helpful in this atmosphere.
A wider lesson for other national cement industries looking in is that if Chinese steel continues flood the world market it will also hit the cement industry. Tata’s woes have been squarely blamed on China dumping its steel on the world market. Various jurisdictions promote the use of SCM cements and concrete for their low-carbon and sustainability properties. If local or existing GGBS supplies are hit then the cement industries may be penalised while the lawmakers and competition bodies play catch-up.
The wider point about heavy industry reducing its production capacity is one that the European cement industry will be well used to. Spain, for example, has seen its cement production drop from 55Mt in 2007 to 15Mt in 2014 according to Oficemen data. Alongside this, demand for cement has dropped to levels not seen since the 1960s. The European response has been to shut plants, sell assets and to merge companies.
The big question following the 2008 recession is whether ‘this’ is the new normal for mature construction markets. Eight years later global interest rates are still lagging and China’s economy is slowing down. All of the European infrastructure was built long ago meaning that steel and cement will only be required to maintain it. Luckily it looks likely that demand for SCMs should stay buoyant as industries are encouraged to decarbonise. The problem though is where the slag comes from. Oversupply in the short term in areas like Europe might be great for cement producers but as the iron and steel industries readjust to market reality there might be a hangover in store.
Roundup of non-Chinese cement producers in 2015
Written by Global Cement staff
30 March 2016
LafargeHolcim was the last of the major non-Chinese cement producers to report its annual financial results when it did so on 17 March 2016. With the full set in, as it were, Global Cement will compare the progress of the world’s largest multinational cement companies in 2015.
The first thing to note is that whilst cement production growth rates have hardly been inspiring in 2015, growth or holding the status quo is occurring. The emerging markets have faced challenges in 2015 following the prolonged depression in the construction sector in Europe since 2008. As Wolfgang Reitzle and Eric Olsen put it in the forward of the 2015 LafargeHolcim annual report, “…our share price has been significantly affected, mainly by the volatility associated with emerging markets.”
Figure 1: Cement & clinker sales volumes from five major cement producers, 2011 – 2015. Source: Annual reports. Note: Sales volumes are calculated for LafargeHolcim for 2011 – 2013.
Figure 1 shows cement and clinker sales volumes for the major cement producers from 2011 to 2015. This graph isn’t quite as depressing as it looks because it shows a drop in cement production for the major producers and it has started to show remedial action being taken. Where growth isn’t happening in a market, pressure builds to find it through mergers and acquisitions.
So, Lafarge and Holcim merged and the decision may be now starting to show promise with its sales volumes remaining static year-on-year in 2015 rather than falling. It should be noted here that the drop from 2013 to 2014 is due to the divestments Lafarge and Holcim both made before the merger to satisfy competition bodies and because the sales volumes were calculated here from the separate Lafarge and Holcim annual reports.
Even more so, HeidelbergCement’s plan to buy Italcementi may be a good idea here. Already it has been growing its cement production each year since 2013. The acquisition could potentially speed up the growth considerably. Elsewhere, both Cemex and Buzzi Unicem are showing signs of picking up cement production since 2013.
Figure 2: Earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) for five major cement producers, 2011 – 2015. Source: Annual reports. Note: Cemex and LafargeHolcim figures have been converted from US Dollars and Swiss Francs respectively at current exchange rates.
Figure 2 shows one indicator of profitability for the major cement producers by comparing their earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT). This is less useful than cement sales volumes because it covers the producers’ entire businesses including aggregate and concrete sectors. However, it does show the problems Italcementi has faced and it offers one reason why the company might have allowed itself to be taken over. Note also how Cemex has continued to increase its EBIT despite its high levels of debts.
Returning to the LafargeHolcim comments about volatile emerging markets, most of the producers reported tough trading in their Asian territories in 2015. The exceptions were Cemex with its reliance on the Philippines booming market and Buzzi with its limited assets in the region. However, Cemex suffered in its own major emerging market in South and Central America. Despite these setbacks though all of the producers featured here benefitted from growing sales volumes in North America, particularly in the US.
Both LafargeHolcim and Cemex announced divestments promptly following their results announcements suggesting that they feel they need to do more to regain the profitability they once had. LafargeHolcim plans to sell assets in South Korea and Saudi Arabia. Cemex has agreed to sell cement plants in Bangladesh and Thailand and a minority stake in its business in the Philippines. This last decision may suggest how serious Cemex is about tackling its debts considering the strong market in that country at present. HeidelbergCement is due to complete its acquisition of Italcementi in the second half of 2016.
Finally, the major changes to the multinational cement producers will continue in 2016 as CRH asserts itself following its major acquisitions from Lafarge and Holcim in 2015. Already its Europe Heavyside Divison reported sales revenue of Euro3.61bn in 2015 surpassing that of Buzzi Unicem. Other international producers such as Eurocement, InterCement and Votorantim were also poised for continuing growing but poor domestic markets (Russia and Brazil) may cripple their ambitions in the short term.