Analysis

Votorantim Cimentos released its half-year results this week giving us the opportunity to assess how well some of the larger cement producers are doing so far 2024. The general picture from the western multinational cement companies has been one of sluggish sales in the first half of the year but respectable earnings. So, for example, both Holcim and CRH were reporting static sales or revenue but earnings increases of over 10%. Heidelberg Materials and Cemex noted similar situations.

Graph 1: Sales revenue for selected multinational cement producers in the first half of 2024 and the first half of 2023. Source: Company financial reports.

Holcim was keen to play up that its net sales actually rose on a local currency basis. However, its recurring earnings before interest and taxation definitely rose, by 12% year-on-year to €2.33bn. Net sales were down in both North America and Europe, the group’s main two regions, but earnings were strong in both. Sales revenue for cement and aggregates may have been down across the group but earnings were up sharply. No such luck for ready-mixed concrete though, with both sales and earnings down overall. Another trend to watch is that sales and earnings were both up in the group’s Solutions & Products division. This part of the business has been growing due to merger and acquisition activity, and it is nearly the group’s second largest division after Europe.

CRH reported similar things overall. However, it has been busy selling off its Europe-based lime business, finishing the acquisition of its new assets in Texas and buying a majority stake in Australia-based AdBri. Its Americas Materials Solutions division reported both increasing revenues and earnings in the second quarter of 2024, at least, and the acquisitions in Texas helped too. Revenue in its Europe Materials Solutions division fell by 5% on an organic basis and this was blamed on subdued markets in Western Europe and poor weather.

Heidelberg Materials had a tougher time of it in the first half of 2024, with revenue down by 5% to around €10bn. It attributed the falling revenue to decreasing sales volumes across all business lines. It described its second quarter as follows, “The pressure on volumes is largely attributable to prolonged weak activity in the construction industry and adverse weather conditions in individual core markets. Active cost and price management largely offset the impact.” For clinker and cement this was noticed prominently in Europe despite volumes increasing in North America and Asia-Pacific. However, its result from current operations rose slightly. One reason for this appeared to be a ‘significant’ fall in material costs including energy.

Similarly, Cemex’s net sales were flat but its operating earnings were positive. Drilling down between its main geographical markets revealed a strong market in Mexico, a stable one in the US and declines in Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). In the US Cemex apportioned falls in cement and ready-mix concrete sales volumes to “...difficult weather conditions, a softening residential sector, portfolio rationalisation, competitive dynamics in certain micro markets and timing of several large projects.” Operating earnings were also hit by higher maintenance costs. In its EMEA region the trend was downwards but this was due to volume declines in Western Europe and geopolitical issues in the Middle East.

Votorantim Cimentos’ net revenue and adjusted earnings were down slightly in the first half of 2024 stemming from softer results in North America and Brazil in the first quarter. Revenue in Brazil was flat for the half year after a better second quarter. Revenue in North America though was hit by a slowdown in demand although price rises staved off some of this. Meanwhile, the group’s Europe, Africa and Asia region reported higher revenue due to higher volumes in most places.

Finally, UltraTech Cement is the odd company out in this group. The size of its annual revenue earns it a place in the list but it is more like some of the large China-based cement companies because it mostly sticks to one territory: India in this case. Yet, its revenue rose by nearly 6% to €4.2bn in the first half of 2024, making it the best performer in this article’s grouping. Domestic sales volumes increased at a similar rate in the April - June 2024 quarter. Similar to Heidelberg Materials, UltraTech Cement also reported that its energy costs fell by 17% year-on-year mainly due to reduced fuel prices. Its profit didn’t grow by much especially but the company is racing against Adani Cement to build capacity. It added 8.7Mt/yr alone in the April - June 2024 period compared to 13.3Mt/yr in its entire 2024 financial year that ended in March 2024.

The picture from the companies covered above suggests that the US market may have cooled for some since 2023. Despite this the earnings have mostly held up and cement companies enthusiasm for the market remains high led by Holcim’s impending market spin-off. Europe has been mixed, with declines in the west and stronger markets towards the east. Energy costs have finally fallen following the market shock when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and this is helping earnings. That last point may be universal here given that it has affected both western multinationals and a large regional player such as UltraTech Cement. That’s it for now. In a future week Global Cement Weekly will take a look at how well the large China-based cement companies have done in so far in 2024.

Cemex announced this week that it is preparing to divest its operations in the Dominican Republic for US$950m. At first this seems a little close to home for the Mexico-based company but it felt similar at the start of 2022 when it sold its businesses in Costa Rica and El Salvador to the same company, Cementos Progreso. Readers may also recall that the business press reported, correctly we now know, in mid-2023 that Cemex was seriously considering its options in the Dominican Republic.

The current agreement will see Cemex sell one cement plant in the Dominican Republic along with related cement, concrete, aggregates and marine terminal assets for US$950m. The deal is expected to close towards the end of 2024. Cemex says that it is making the transaction to reduce its exposure to emerging markets and refocus its capital upon priority markets, such as the US. This reasoning is very much in line with its international peers in the building materials sector, which have been doing likewise.

This is the potential biggest divestment Cemex will have made since 2009. It is bigger than the agreement to sell the share of its business in the Philippines, revealed earlier in 2024, for an enterprise value of US$660m. Back in 2000, Cemex sold its Australia-based subsidiary to Holcim for US$1.7bn. Holcim still operates in Australia today via Cement Australia, a joint-venture with Heidelberg Materials. Plus, CRH, one of Cemex’s competitors that has also shown a keen interest in the US market previously, concluded a deal to buy a stake in AdBri in July 2024. Infamously, Cemex took over building products company Rinker in 2007 just as the 2007 - 2008 financial crisis burst. It then spent the next decade-and-a-half reducing its debt levels. In April 2024 it was pleased to announce that it had been awarded full investment grade status by rating agency Fitch Ratings.

Selling up in the Dominican Republic seems curious at first but, as mentioned at the start, we’ve been here before with Cemex’s subsidiaries in Central America and the Caribbean, plus the company has been working on it for at least a year. It is worth noting though that Cemex reopened a second production line at its San Pedro de Macorís site in 2022 giving the plant a cement production capacity of 2.4Mt/yr. That gives the current deal a value of US$380/t based on capacity. Local competitor Domicem also started up a second line at its Sabana Grande de Palenque cement plant in late 2023, demonstrating that other cement companies have also been investing in the market. Cemex’s sales from its business in the country were reasonable in 2023 but its operating earnings were the fourth biggest in the group after Mexico, the US and the UK. In its results for the first half of 2024 the group noted that tourism projects were driving demand in the country.

Graph 1: Mix of sales by region for Cemex, 2019 - 2023. Source: Company reports.

Graph 1 above presents the general way Cemex has been directing its business internationally over the last five years. Sales were roughly half-and-half between Mexico & the US and the rest of the world in 2019. In 2023 the ratio was more like 60:40. Operating earnings have tracked the same way with an even greater emphasis on Mexico and the US. It should be noted though that despite sales revenue being higher in the US, operating earnings remain higher in Mexico.

Pretty much every western international cement company is watching the US market intently right now. So, Cemex’s decision to sell a profitable business in the Dominican Republic to fund further investment in the US makes sense. Although what it might actually want to buy at US prices right now might be a tough call. CRH, for example, paid US$2.1bn in late 2023 to buy the 2.1Mt/yr Hunter cement plant, a network of cement terminals and 20 ready-mix concrete batching plants in South Texas. This was arguably quite a high price. One last point to consider is that the financial press was reporting falls in the global stock markets this week amid fears over the outlook of the US economy. Whatever happens next, at least Cemex is selling rather than buying this time round.

Heidelberg Materials inaugurated a plant near Katowice in Poland this week for separating and sorting demolition concrete. This gives us the chance to catch up with the state of construction and demolition waste (CDW) for the cement and concrete sectors and consider the differences between the strategies of the multinational heavy building materials companies in Europe and the US.

The new CDW recycling unit has a capacity of up to 100t/hr. Heidelberg Materials says that it is the “first company in the industry to introduce high-quality, selective concrete separation at this scale.” The company is using its proprietary ReConcrete process to sort out fractions from the CDW including sand, gravel and, finest of all, recycled concrete paste (RCP). That last one is particularly valuable because it can either be used as an alternative raw material for clinker production by replacing limestone or as a secondary cementitious material. Heidelberg Materials is also promoting the potential use of RCP as a carbon sink over the lifetime of a concrete structure via ‘enforced carbonation.’ The RCP is exposed to raw exhaust gases from cement production allowing it to both mineralise CO₂ and act as a clinker substitute. To further explore this option Heidelberg Materials is building an industrial pilot at its Górażdże plant to test the concept with construction expected by the end of 2024.

Both Holcim and Heidelberg Materials have been visibly busy buying up more aggregate recycling companies over the last nine months since Global Cement Weekly last reported on CDW. Holcim acquired Germany-based Mendiger Basalt in January 2024, Switzerland-based Cand-Landi Group and UK-based Land Recovery in June 2024, and Belgium-based Mark Desmedt in July 2024. It also said at the start of the year that it aimed to conclude 15 - 20 new acquisitions in 2024 with a focus on CDW companies in Belgium, France, Germany and the UK. Heidelberg Materials bought UK-based B&A Group in May 2024 and US-based Highway Materials and Aaron Materials in July 2024. Holcim has set itself a target of recycling 12Mt/yr of CDW by 2030 by using its ECOCycle technology. It reported 8.4Mt/yr in 2023 and hopes to reach 10Mt/yr in 2024.

Some of the recycling companies mentioned above are based in the US but the pace of CDW acquisitions have generally been faster in Europe. In the US, meanwhile, the heavy building materials producers have tended to buy more general aggregates companies. Heidelberg Materials announced on 30 July 2024 that it was buying Albany-based Carver Sand & Gravel. This followed the companies mentioned above and Texas-based Victory Rock, also in July 2024. Holcim said in its first half-year results for 2024 that it had ‘executed’ a bolt-on acquisition in the US that would strengthen its aggregate and ready-mixed concrete business. Cemex also revealed a joint-venture agreement with sand and gravel supplier Couch Aggregates and marine bulk product distributor Premier Holdings in July 2024. It said that the move was part of its “ongoing strategy to accelerate growth in the US and expand its aggregates business.” A big recent deal in the sector was the merger of the US-based operations of Summit Materials and Cementos Argos that completed in January 2024. Although at the time we concentrated on the cement-side of the transaction, it also gave the organisation just under 5Bnt of aggregate reserves.

It may be a stretch to call what’s going on here a trend. Yet the large heavy building materials companies do appear to be acting differently in the US and Europe with regards to aggregate companies and CDW recyclers. The main drivers here are the strength of the US market and the stricter environmental legislation in Europe. Higher population density in Europe compared to the US may also be playing a part in the differences in speed of adoption between the two markets. The ongoing Holcim spinoff demonstrates the differences between the two market regions in bold terms. In short, the company has decided to split itself in two in order to meet the different needs of each market. As for CDW, the trickle of acquisitions keep coming and momentum is steadily building.

Congratulations to Taiheiyo Cement Philippines (TCPI) this week for inaugurating its new 3Mt/yr production line at its Cebu plant. The US$220m line replaces the old line at the site that was closed in late 2021.

The plant was originally built by Grand Cement Manufacturing in the early 1990s. Japan-based Taiheiyo Cement took over in 2001 and later made the decision to upgrade the site in 2017. It then contracted China-based Anhui Conch and Sinoma (Handan) Construction for the project in 2021 and groundbreaking took place in mid-2022. Commercial operation of the new line was previously scheduled from May 2024. TCPI has also invested around US$140m in related projects such as its Jetty and Marine Belt Conveyor project, which links the Cebu plant to the coast via a conveyor. Other parts of this expenditure encompass the Luzon Distribution Terminal Project at Calaca in Batangas and general port development in San Fernando.

The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) was keen to promote this example of a foreign-owned company investing in local manufacturing. DTI Secretary Fred Pascual pointed out that Japan is the country’s “second-largest trading partner and third-largest source of foreign investment.” He also linked the project to the national Build Better More infrastructure development programme and the Tatak Pinoy Act that was introduced in early 2024 to promote local industry. Along these lines, Republic Cement was awarded the Domestic Bidder’s Certificate of Preference this week. It is the first cement company to receive it. The initiative promotes the use of local manufactured materials in government projects as part of the Tatak Pinoy Act. As one might expect, the Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines (CEMAP) supports the Tatak Pinoy Act. It voiced its support for the legislation in June 2024 when the DTI started to implement it. It noted that cement imports were just under 7Mt/yr in 2023 despite the anti-dumping duties imposed on a number of Vietnam-based producers and traders. This compares to a local production capacity of nearly 50Mt/yr.

CEMAP mentioned that new production lines from both TCPI and Solid Cement were expected in 2024. The latter project is a new production line being built at Solid Cement’s Antipolo plant near Manilla in Rizal province. Cemex Philippines held a groundbreaking ceremony for the 1.5Mt/yr line at its subsidiary back in 2019. However, Cemex said it was selling its Philippines-based business to DMCI Holdings and related companies in April 2024. As part of this process Cemex sold its local cement brands to the Consunji family, the owners of DMCI Holdings, in June 2024. Regulatory approval of the divestment is still pending but the sale of the brands suggest that the transaction is progressing. Completion is expected by the end of 2024. Operation of the new line at the Antipolo plant is anticipated from September 2024.

Another forthcoming plant project was announced by PHINMA Corporation in June 2024. It signed a joint venture deal with investment company Anflo Group to build a 2Mt/yr cement plant in Davao del Norte. The project is scheduled to be operational by 2026. Cement from the plant will be marketed under the Union Cement brand. The sums involved suggest a grinding plant but PHINMA’s cement division, Philcement Corporation, is involved with both manufacture and importation. PHINMA also signed a deal to buy Petra Cement in May 2024. The latter company runs a 0.5Mt/yr cement grinding plant in Zamboanga del Norte. PHINMA re-entered the cement market in the late 2010s when it bought the Union Cement brand and built a cement processing plant at Mariveles, Bataan in 2020.

The battles between cement producers and importers continue to play out in the Philippines as the country’s infrastructure plans gather pace. Yet the balance seems to be tilting more towards the favour of the local manufacturers at the moment, as new capacity gets proposed and built. Anti-dumping duties on imports, particularly those from Vietnam, have now been followed up with local procurement rules in the guise of the Tatak Pinoy Act. Whether this is enough remains to be seen. This kind of environment and the departure of Cemex may also start to revive questions about whether any other foreign-owned cement companies might be considering their options too.

A battle over cement pricing in Ghana reached a new stage this week when the Chamber of Cement Manufacturers (COCMAG) hit back at proposed government regulation. Frédéric Albrecht, the chair of the association, told a meeting that about 80% of local production costs linked to cement manufacture are related to the local currency exchange rate. So fixing the price would do little to address the main cause behind rises.

Albrecht was speaking at a stakeholders’ forum organised by the Ghana Chamber of Construction. The group was convened to discuss the government’s proposed Ghana Standards Authority (Pricing of Cement) Regulations 2024 that were formally presented in the country’s parliament in early July 2024. The association argues that the cement sector has not been consulted properly over the proposal and that introducing it could have negative consequences for the construction sector as a whole. It says that imported clinker is subject to numerous taxes and that the average price of cement has actually lagged behind the rate of inflation.

The government is dealing with an economic crisis that forced it to default on its external debts in 2022 and ask the International Monetary Fund for support. This has led to depreciation of the local currency and high inflation. Around the same time the authorities have also been attempting to regulate the cement sector more closely. In 2022 the Ghana Standards Authority (GSA) took action against a brand of cement, Empire Cement, that appeared to be on sale without any of the required permits. Then in the autumn of 2023 the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) shut down Wan Heng Ghana’s grinding plant in Tema after the company failed to pay a major tax bill. Action by the GSA followed when it shut down three more plants in the Ashanti Region - Xin An Safe Cement Ghana, Kumasi Cement Ghana and Unicem Cement Ghana - for using inferior materials in cement production.

In April 2024 a nine-member committee was established to monitor and coordinate the local cement industry. Notably, cement producers have been required to register with the committee in order to secure a licence to manufacture cement. Kobina Tahir Hammond, the Trade and Indus¬try Minister, then said in late June 2024 that the government wanted to intervene in cement pricing to protect consumers from what he described as the ‘haphazard’ increment in cement prices by manufacturers. A legislative instrument doing just that was presented in parliament on 2 July 2024. Around the same time the GSA reportedly threatened to close down ‘several’ more cement plants for non-compliance.

The cement industry in Ghana is particularly vulnerable to currency exchange effects as it is dominated by grinding plants. One integrated cement plant, Savanna Diamond Cement, was launched in the north of the country in the mid 2010s. However, this compares to 14 licensed grinding plants in the country reported in the local media. This includes units run by Ciments de l’Afrique (CIMAF), Dangote Cement, Diamond Cement (WACEM) and Heidelberg Materials subsidiary Ghacem and its CBI Ghana joint-venture amongst others. This makes it one of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with the most grinding plants, along with places such as Mozambique and South Africa. When the Ministry of Trade and Industry started a consultation on regulating the cement sector in late 2023 it calculated that the country produced 7.2Mt of cement in 2021 and that the country had an overcapacity of 3.5Mt. This gives the country an estimated cement production capacity of just below 11Mt/yr.

Some sense of the growing costs that the cement sector in Ghana is facing can be seen in the Ghana Statistical Trade Report for 2023. Clinker was the country’s third biggest import by value at US$206m. It was only exceeded by diesel and other automotive oil products. The Ghana Statistical Service reported that most of the country’s imported clinker in 2023 came from Egypt, South Africa and its neighbours in West Africa. Both Dangote Cement and Heidelberg Materials flagged up the country’s economy as being hyperinflationary in their respective annual reports for 2023.

Argument and counter-argument over cement pricing is prevalent around the world especially in Africa. Fellow West African country Nigeria, for example, has endured plenty of very public dialogue and debate about the price of cement. In Ghana’s case it seems more likely than not that factors beyond the control of the local cement companies are driving the prices given the grinding-dominated nature of the sector with lots of different companies involved. Negative currency effects and inflation look more likely to be driving cement prices than anything else, although one should always be wary of the potential for cartel-like behaviour by cement producers. The economic crisis in Ghana certainly fits the bill for the conventional introduction of price controls on selected commodities but getting the fine tuning right could be difficult in practice. Fixed prices will reassure consumers in the short term provided supplies hold. Beyond this the actual causes of the high cement prices should emerge in time.