Analysis

US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on imports from Canada, China, Mexico and the European Union this week. Tariffs to Canada and Mexico were announced on 1 February 2025 and then paused for a month to allow for negotiations. Ones to China have been implemented. Tariffs to the European Union have been proposed but nothing has happened yet. What does this mean for the cement sector?

Graph 1: Imports of cement and clinker to the US. Source: USGS. Estimated data for 2024.

The data suggests that whacking 25% tariffs on cement imports from Canada and Mexico would have an impact. The US imported 26.5Mt of cement and clinker in 2023. Based on United States Geological Survey (USGS) data from January to October 2024, imports in 2024 have fallen by 8% year-on-year but they still represent a large chunk of consumption. Türkiye has been the biggest source of imports over the last five years but Canada has been the second biggest supplier. Together with Mexico, it provided over a quarter of imports in 2023. A similar share is expected in 2024. Greece, a country in the EU, has also been present in the top five importing countries to the US during this time.

The Portland Cement Association (PCA) reinforced this view. In a carefully worded statement it took pains to point out alignment with the intentions behind the tariffs, such as appreciating that the administration was open to negotiation and appeared to be flexible. However, it warned that the moves could adversely affect energy and national security, delay infrastructure projects and raise costs. It pointed out the import share from Canada and Mexico, adding that this represented nearly 7% of the US’ cement consumption. It noted which states were the main entry points for cement imports from the two countries. Finally, it highlighted the high level of consumption (36%) that imports from Canada might account for in northern states such as New York, Washington and so on. Meanwhile, Mexico’s National Chamber of Cement (CANACEM) warned that the proposed actions might trigger a ‘competitiveness crisis’ in the US.

Holcim’s CEO, by contrast, nonchalantly told Reuters that he didn’t expect any impact by tariffs on his business. Miljan Gutovic described the group’s US operations as a local business with production happening in the country and equipment and spare parts all being sourced locally. This optimistic view is likely to be influenced by the company’s impending spin-off of its US business. The listing in the US remains scheduled for the first half of 2025 with no complications expected from tariffs.

Clearly, implementing tariffs on imports of cement and clinker from Canada and Mexico could cause a shortage in the US in the short term. This, in turn, could lead to higher prices for consumers in the US. This potential effect would be pronounced in border regions that are reliant on imports. It is worth noting that a number of production lines in both Mexico and Canada have previously been mobilised to meet the export market to the US. These lines would likely be mothballed if tariffs were to be implemented, unless they could find other markets. In the medium term though, as the World Cement Association (WCA) pointed out this week, the world produces too much cement. So it looks likely that the US cement market would adjust to a new equilibrium. Taxing imports from the EU would have a similar effect. Although it seems like it would be less pronounced for the US cement market unless it was in conjunction with tariffs to Canada and Mexico. It would certainly be bad news for cement producers in Greece.

Cement producers in the US look set to benefit from tariffs as demand for their products and prices could increase. There is a risk that too sudden a change to the import market could cause adverse market effects through shortages. Many of these companies are multinational groups with headquarters in foreign countries. However, the strength of the US market compared to elsewhere has prompted some of these businesses to become more ‘American’ through listing in the US or focusing merger and acquisition activity in North America.

At this point we’re stuck in a half-way house place where import tariffs have been threatened and negotiations are pending. The relatively muted stock market reaction to the tariffs and Trump’s swiftness in enacting pauses suggest that it is brinkmanship by the US administration. If this situation continues for any length of time then it will likely have an effect all of its own. In which case don’t expect any export-focused investment by cement companies in Canada and Mexico any time soon.

Northern-Ireland based cement producer Cemcor said this week that it has completed trials of a calcined clay cement product called CalcinX. The company started its trials in 2023 and it has been supported by Queen’s University Belfast and funding from Innovate UK. Work with commercial partners has involved precast concrete paving manufacturer Tobermore producing paviours made from 50% CalcinX as a CEM II replacement and Moore Concrete has also manufactured precast units using 50% CalcinX as a CEM I replacement. So far over 3000t of CalcinX has been produced in a number of industrial-scale trials.

David Millar, the managing director of Cemcor, mentioned his company’s plans for calcined clay in June 2022 when he was interviewed by Global Cement Magazine. The company that became Cemcor bought the Cookstown cement plant and a few other assets from Holcim at the start of 2022. It then changed its name to Cemcor in November 2022. At the time of the interview the company was looking to “...develop new value-added products, including low-CO₂ options. This will allow us to use the same amount of clinker to produce more cement.” Millar couldn’t give away too many details at the time, however calcined clay was cited specifically. It was also noted that the company had the right material in its quarry and that it was already working with partners on it.

Amongst all the other decarbonisation options available for cement plants, a slow trickle of calcined clay projects keep being announced. In January 2025, for example, thyssenkrupp Polysius said it had secured a front-end engineering design contract from Circlua for the construction of the world’s largest activated clay plant in Brazil. This project in Para state will have a capacity of 3000t/day, will use renewable energy sources and will “improve the CO₂ footprint in cement production.” CBMI Construction also officially launched a flash calcination clay project in Tangshan, Hebei province in China. In December 2024, Vicat signed an agreement with the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations to develop the Lebec Net Zero (LNZ) project at its Lebec cement plant in California. This includes plans to produce calcined clay-based cement. Earlier in the autumn of 2024 Portugal-based Cimpor said it was preparing to convert a kiln at its Souselas plant to produce calcined clays, AVIC International Beijing and KHD said that they had secured a deal to build a 900t/day clay calcination plant for Ciments de l'Afrique (CIMAF) in Burkina Faso, and Holcim Česko said it was going to construct a calcined clay processing line at the Čížkovice cement plant in the Czech Republic.

One news story that stuck out in the autumn was the progress of a collaboration between Aumund and Holcim towards developing an electric linear calcination conveyor (eLCC). The two companies started work on the project in 2020 intending to look at the electrical calcination of clay using an Aumund pan conveyor. Initial tests of the eLCC reportedly demonstrated efficient thermal activation of clay through a combination of radiant heat and material circulation. The eLCC system is fully enclosed, insulated, has a compact design and can operate using electrical-powered renewable sources. The first industrial plant utilising this technology is scheduled for construction in 2025. Calcined clay technology and products by other industrial suppliers are available. The work by Aumund and its competitors show they are watching this market closely.

OneStone Consulting’s Joe Harder has found that only 14 clay calcination plants were operational worldwide in 2023 with a production capacity of just under 3.5Mt/yr. These are based in Latin America, Europe and Africa. In an article previewing a market report in the February 2025 issue of Global Cement Magazine, Harder predicts that by 2035 there will be 79 clay calcination plants with a capacity of just under 21Mt/yr. A steady growth of over 20 new plants annually is also expected subsequently from 2035 to 2050 as cement producers seek cost-effective ways to reduce their clinker factor. He identified installation costs, a lack of knowledge about clay-based cements, trouble obtaining mining rights and policy issues amongst other issues as holding back the use of clay calcination.

The current expectation is that calcined clay usage in the cement industry will be a minority option. Yet the size of global cement production can make a production share of, say, 3 - 8% a viable option for both cement manufacturers and equipment suppliers. The adoption of new cement products and standards can also take a long time and this clouds predictions of how far clay can go in the cement industry. At this point in the calcined clay story it is time to keep track of the new projects being set up.

Joe Harder will present a talk entitled ‘Calcined clay market trends by 2035’ at the Global FutureCem Conference taking place in Istanbul in early February 2025

PPC revealed plans this week to build a new cement plant in the Western Cape region of South Africa. It has entered into a “strategic cooperation agreement” with Sinoma Overseas Development Company to put together a 1.5Mt/yr integrated plant for around US$160m. It is hoped that construction will start in the second quarter of 2025 with commissioning scheduled by the end of 2026.

CEO Matías Cardarelli described more details about the project during a tie-in webcast on 16 January 2025. Specifically, the new unit will be built at the company’s integrated Riebeeck Plant site due to the quality of the local limestone and the greater reserves. In addition, all the key environmental approvals and mining rights have already been obtained. Both this plant, and the nearby De Hoek Plant, will continue to run throughout the construction and commissioning period. A decision will then be made about required staffing. PPC did not explicitly say whether the two old plants would be closed but the new plant will “replace and increase the existing capacity” at the other sites.

Points to note from the announcement start with the low cost for the clinker production line. PPC’s 1Mt/yr line at its Slurry plant cost around US$75m when it was commissioned in 2018. Sinoma also built that one. However, negative currency exchange effects make comparisons tricky. In 2015 PPC said that the cost of the Slurry line was around US$115/t. It pointed out that the price was low as it was a brownfield investment. This compares to US$107/t for the Western Cape project, another brownfield project. Other recent integrated plant projects in Sub-Saharan Africa to consider include Cemtech’s clinker plant in Sebit, Kenya (US$170/t) or West International Holding’s forthcoming plant in Buikwe District, Uganda (US$150/t). Plans for a new PPC plant in the Western Cape go back to at least 2017 when the then CEO Johan Claassen said it was preparing for a ‘mega plant.’ At the time it was hoping to replace its Riebeeck plant with a ‘semi-brownfield’ facility that would use around 25% of the current plant’s equipment. The scheme had actually been around longer but Claassen remarked that insufficient domestic demand had held it back.

The next detail to consider is that PPC is planning to build this new plant within 100km of the coast. This was addressed directly with PPC saying that the new plant would be “extremely competitive” against imports. They say it will be able to produce cement, at least, to a similar cost to imports from Vietnam. It was also remarked that only 10 - 15% of the 1Mt/yr of imports, mainly from Vietnam, go to the Western Cape with the rest heading to KwaZulu-Natal via the Port of Durban.

PPC’s plans in Riebeeck are part of its ‘Awaken the Giant’ development strategy. For its six month financial results statement to September 2024 it said that it had “early positive and encouraging signs in all lines of our business.” In South Africa its earnings were up despite lower sales volumes. Dangote Cement’s local subsidiary, Sephaku Holdings, reported a similar picture with a small bump in revenue and earnings back up after coal and fly ash supply constraints a year earlier. PPC isn’t the only cement company developing capacity. Huaxin Cement-owned Natal Portland Cement was reportedly investing US$65m in the autumn of 2024 towards expanding its Simuma Plant in KwaZulu-Natal.

The cement sector in South Africa had a couple of ownership changes in 2024. As mentioned above, China-based Huaxin Cement bought Natal Portland Cement from InterCement at the start of the year. Then, Afrimat received approval to buy Lafarge South Africa in April 2024. Both of these incomers have clear ambitions to expand in the industry. In this context PPC’s decision to finally revive its Western Cape plans, before whatever its new competitors devise, makes sense. Expect more talk of capacity upgrades in the future.

Holcim revealed the board members for its proposed North America business this week. Former group CEO Jan Jenisch was confirmed as the designated chair and CEO. He will be joined by nine directors chosen from sectors including construction, manufacturing, industrial operations and financial services. Notably, current Holcim director Jürg Oleas will be joining Jenisch at the new company. He previously worked as the head of GEA Group and had senior stints at ABB and the Alstom Group.

The group’s decision to split its business in North America from that in the rest of the world has been presented as a piece of financial engineering designed to increase earnings, margins and increase the value of the business. Markets in the US and Europe have diverged in recent years, with the former growing and the latter slowing in comparison. Splitting the business should, in theory, allow both companies to grow at their own pace. However, the spin-off company in North America will remain linked to Europe as it will be listed at both the New York Stock Exchange and the SIX Swiss Exchange. The latter is for the benefit of European investors. The separation is expected by the end of the first half 2025, subject to shareholder and customary approvals.

Naturally, other companies are also chasing growth in North America. Titan Cement announced this week that its US-based subsidiary, Titan America, has filed a registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission as part of a proposed initial public offering (IPO). Yet, the company said that the offering is subject to market conditions. As such it couldn’t say when it might happen, how big it might be or much else. Back in May 2024 the group said it was going to list Titan America in the US to “...facilitate the group’s and Titan America’s future growth and unlock new opportunities.” The IPO was intended to be of a minority stake without creating any large-scale tax issues. At this time the transaction was planned to be completed in early 2025.

Titan’s sales share in North America has remained similar from 2018 to 2023 at around 55%. Holcim’s, by comparison, grew to 39% in 2023 from 22% in 2018. This is due to big acquisitions in the US such as Firestone Building Products in 2021 as it built up its lightweight building materials segment. The size of the two companies’ operations in North America are also different. Holcim reported net sales in the region of over US$11bn in 2023. Titan reported net sales of just under US$1.5bn.

Ireland-based CRH moved its stock market listings to the US earlier than both Holcim and Titan. It completed the transition of its primary listing to the New York Stock Exchange in mid-2023, although it too retains a listing in Europe, at the London Stock Exchange in its case. Yet analysts have started to wonder whether the company might spin-off its businesses outside the US. As reported by the Irish Times, Bank of America analysts reckon that the non-US parts of the company now represent only 16% of the US$82bn concern. For sanity’s sake this is still a US$10bn-plus sized company! Although other commentators did wonder why CRH might have bought assets in Australia in 2024 if it was seriously considering making changes on this scale anytime soon.

Despite all this attention on the US and North America by some of the multinational cement producers, it is worth remembering that markets change over time. Europe may not look so hot right now but it is unlikely to stay like this. The head of Heidelberg Materials, for example, said in early 2024 that his company wasn’t planning a split in the US because it was focusing on decarbonisation. This may prove prescient in the longer term if Europe sticks to its sustainability goals. FInally, the US isn’t the only place where cement companies are attempting to build their value in growth markets. It was also reported this week that JSW Cement had obtained approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India to proceed with its IPO.

Consolidation in the Indian cement sector continued through December 2024. UltraTech Cement completed its acquisition of a larger stake in The India Cements late in the month. Then, this week, Nuvoco Vistas said that it was preparing to buy Vadraj Cement. Along similar lines, JK Lakshmi Cement also confirmed that it was moving ahead with the merger of its cement-related subsidiaries.

The UltraTech Cement deal was approved by its board of directors in July 2024 but it took until 24 December 2024 before it formally completed the purchase of an additional 33% stake in The India Cements. The deal was valued at around US$460m in mid-2024 by local press. UltraTech Cement now owns just under a 55% stake in the company and is its majority shareholder. Back in July 2024 UltraTech Cement said that The India Cements had a total production capacity of around 14.5Mt/yr of ordinary Portland cement (OPC). Just under 13Mt/yr of this is based in the south of the country, mostly in Tamil Nadu, and 1.5Mt/yr is in Rajasthan.

The Nuvoco Vistas announcement follows a bidding process to acquire Vadraj Cement through a corporate insolvency process. Key parts of the deal include taking control of Vadraj Cement’s 6Mt/yr grinding plant in Surat and its 3.5Mt/yr integrated plant in Kutch. Both plants are in Gujarat. The agreement also includes limestone mining rights in the state and a captive jetty near the Kutch plant. However, the expression of interest for the insolvency proceedings, published in March 2024, revealed that the company’s operations have been suspended for five years. The grinding plant and the jetty were described as ‘partially constructed.’ Nuvoco Vistas has not disclosed how much it had bid to pay for the company, although it was keener in its press release to state that the transaction would see it become the fifth largest cement producer in India. It says that its cement production capacity will rise to 31Mt/yr; 19Mt/yr of this in the east, 6Mt/yr in the north and 6Mt/yr in the west. Synergies are also hoped for when the new assets are combined with Nuvoco Vistas’ current plants at Nimbol and Chittorgarh in Rajasthan.

Compared to the previous two news stories, the JK Lakshmi Cement merger plan is on a smaller scale but it follows the same trend. The cement producer presented its corporate restructuring plan to its shareholders in July 2024. It wants to merge JK Lakshmi Cement, its main cement company, with Udaipur Cement, Hidrive and Hansdeep. JK Lakshmi Cement runs two integrated cement plants at Sirohi, Rajasthan, and Durg, Chattisgarh respectively. It also operates what it calls ‘split location grinding’ plants at Kalol and Surat in Gujarat, at Jhamri in Haryana and at Cuttack in Odisha. Udaipur Cement operates one integrated plant in Rajasthan, Hidrive owns land next to the group’s Surat unit and Hansdeep is a preferred bidder for limestone resources in Nagaur, Rajasthan. The group’s clinker and cement production capacities are 10Mt/yr and 16.4Mt/yr. Its rationale is to gain synergies from production, distribution and logistics, to simplify the corporate structure, to improve efficiency and to raise shareholder value. That last one might be particularly useful for a cement producer looking to expand or sell in the future.

Further mergers and acquisitions are expected to happen in 2025 but at a slower rate than in 2024. Part of the dynamic so far has been that the highest demand is in the east and the highest capacity is in the south. Many of the deals announced in 2024 focused on markets in the south of the country. By contrast, analysts quoted in the Economic Times at the start of 2025 anticipate that new transactions might start to move to other regions. Obvious potential targets include Jaiprakash Associates and Heidelberg Materials. The first company became insolvent in 2024 and is likely to be sold off. Rumours of a potential purchase of the second company by Adani Group in the autumn hit the local press in October 2024. Doubtless there are other less visible possibilities too if the price is right. Read Global Cement Weekly in 2025 to find out what happens.