Analysis

One of the long running trends in the cement industry is that of production overcapacity. Sure enough more than a few news stories this week covered this, as various players reacted to international trade in clinker and cement. The Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association wants its government to cut import duties on clinker. Algeria’s shift from an importing cement nation to an exporting one continues.

Armenia and Afghanistan are coping with influxes of cement imports from neighbouring Iran. Pakistan’s cement exporters, who have been losing ground in Afghanistan, are once again lobbying to remove anti-dumping measures in South Africa. The argument between Hard Rock Cement and Arawak Cement in Barbados may have swung Hard Rock Cement’s way as the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) has ruled in favour of lower tariffs for imports. Last week it was reported that the Rwanda Bureau of Standards had blocked cement imports from Uganda on quality requirement grounds.

The summarised version is that all this excess clinker and cement can cause arguments and market distortions as it finds new markets. Typically, the media reports upon the negative side of this, when the representatives of national industries defend their patch and speak out about ‘quality concerns,’ potential job losses and blows to the local economy. However, it isn’t always like this as the Afghan story shows this week. Here, although the Chamber of Commerce and Industries wants to promote locally produced cement, imports are welcome and the relative merits of different sources are discussed. Ditto the situation in Bangladesh where a predominantly grinding-based industry naturally wants to cut its raw material costs.

We’ve covered clinker and cement exports more than a few times, most recently in September 2018 when the jaw-dropping scale of Vietnam’s exports in 2018 started to become clear. Yet as the continued flow of news stores this week makes clear it’s a topic that never grows old.

Graph 1: Top cement exporting countries in 2018. Source: International Trade Centre.

Looking globally raises a number of issues. First, a warning. The data in Graph 1 comes from the International Trade Centre (ITC), a comprehensive source of trade statistics. Most of its figures are in line with data from government bodies and trade associations but its export figure is around a tenth of the estimated export figure for Iran of around 13Mt for its 2018 - 2019 year. Last time this column looked at exports similar issues were noted with a discrepancy between Vietnam’s exports from the ITC compared to government data.

Iran aside, all the usual suspects are present and correct. A point of interest here is that the list is a mixture of countries that make the headlines for their exports, like Vietnam, and those that are quietly just getting on with business. Japan for example exported 10.7Mt in 2018. More telling are the changes in exports from 2017 to 2018. Exports fell in Japan, China and Spain. They rose in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan and South Korea.

Looking globally, China is the elephant in the room in this topic given its apparent massive production overcapacity. The industry here is structurally unable to export cement on the scale of other countries but, as its major companies expand internationally, this may change. Despite this China still managed to be the third biggest exporter of cement to the US in 2018 at 2Mt and the fifth biggest in the world. Yet, as the ITC data shows, its exports fell by 30% year-on-year to 9Mt in 2018.

Vietnam, Pakistan and Turkey continue to be some of the key exporting nations with production capacities rising in defiance of domestic realities. Pakistan, for example, is coming off a building boom from the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor infrastructure project and all those plants are now looking for new markets. Vietnam says it is benefitting from industry consolidation in China. Its exports grew by 55% year-on-year rise to 31.6Mt. It shipped 9.8Mt to China in 2018. Its main export markets in 2019 are expected to be the Philippines, Bangladesh, China, Taiwan and Peru. Turkey, meanwhile, struggled with general economic issues in 2018. Its cement exports fell by 6% to 7.5Mt in 2018 according to Turkish Cement Manufacturers Association data. Once again this is at odds with ITC data, which reports nearly twice as many exports.

This touches the tip of the iceberg of a big issue but while production over-capacity continues these kinds of trade arguments will endure. Vietnam, for example, may be enjoying supplying cement in China as that country scales down production. Yet, what will happen to all of those Vietnamese plants once Chinese consumption stabilises?! Similar bear traps lie in wait for the other major exports. Alongside this many of the multinational cement companies are pivoting to concrete production. This may be in recognition of the fact that in a clinker-abundant world profits should be sought elsewhere in the supply chain. A topic for another week.

For an overview of some of these themes and more read Dr Robert McCaffrey’s article ‘The Global Cement Industry in 2050’ in the May 2019 issue of Global Cement Magazine and his forthcoming keynote presentation at the 61st IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Conference 2019 at St Louis in Missouri, US.

Good news for Cemex Colombia this week with an agreement reached to open its Maceo cement plant in Antioquia. Local media was reporting that the cement producer has struck a government-brokered deal with CI Calizas y Minerales to lease the land it built its plant on. Finally, the new(ish) US$350m integrated plant can start operation.

For those unfamiliar with the debacle, Cemex has been fighting the fallout publicly since 2016, following a dodgy land deal at the site. The 1Mt/yr integrated Maceo plant was originally announced in 2014 with full operation scheduled for late 2016. Then, in October 2016 Cemex fired several senior staff members in relation to the project and its subsidiary’s chief executive resigned. This followed an internal audit and investigation into payments worth around US$20m made to a non-government third party in connection with the acquisition of the land, mining rights and benefits of the tax free zone for the project. Other irregularities are also alleged to be linked to the project. As well as the Colombian authorities being involved, the US Department of Justice is also running its own investigation into the affair with wider implications for Cemex’s operations in other Latin American countries. Some of the sacked staff members and others have since been investigated on corruption charges.

Graph 1: Cement production in Colombia, 2010 – 2018. Source: DANE.

Looking at the wider Colombian market though, it does make one wonder whether the long-delayed plant is really necessary. As Graph 1 shows, cement production rose steadily year-on-year to 2015 before it hit a downturn. It reached a high of 13Mt in 2015 before declining. Production in 2018 grew slightly compared to 2017 but not at the same rate seen previously. In Antioquia specifically despatches increased by 1.3% in 2018, above the national average of 0.2%. Despatches now appear to have continued into January and February 2019.

Cemex Colombia started to benefit from an improved fourth quarter in 2018 as the general economy picked up. Despite this its overall net sales and operating earnings fell in 2018. However, it did flag its earnings margin as a concern with higher freight and energy costs in the fourth quarter of 2018, although it partially offset this with higher prices. Cementos Argos, the other big producer in Colombia, reported a similar picture to Cemex, although in a better position. Its cement volumes fell slightly for the year in 2018 but picked up fast in the fourth quarter. Annual revenue was down slightly, as were adjusted earnings. In its opinion the construction industry improved in the second half of 2018 due to an improved housing market and infrastructure projects.

Given the downturn in production since 2015 the thought does occur whether the opening of the Maceo plant being delayed accidentally helped Cemex or not. It has probably been losing money by not running the plant but if, for example, the company had some sort of insurance to protect it against unexpected delays it might still benefit. However, if evidence of serious wider misconduct in both Colombia and other Latin American countries are found by the US authorities, then things could get expensive. This would be unfortunate, particularly in Colombia, given that the market looks set to recover.

More movement in Italy this week with Buzzi Unicem’s purchase of three cement plants from HeidelbergCement. Buzzi acquired the Testi integrated cement plant at Greve and the Borgo San Dalmazzo and Arquata Scrivia grinding plants in Piedmont. No value for the transaction was disclosed but HeidelbergCement trumpeted that it was ‘well on our way’ to reach its target of Euro1.5bn of disposals by the end of 2020. This follows last week’s purchase of Cemitaly's Spoleto cement plant in Perugia by Colacem. Cemitaly, in case readers don’t know, is another of HeidelbergCement’s Italian subsidiaries.

Upon completion of these deals, Buzzi Unicem will own 10 integrated plants and five grinding plants in Italy. It continues the company’s consolidation drive in Italy from mid-2017 when it bought Cementizillo and two of its integrated plants for the knock down price of up to Euro125m.

The two other leading cement producers are now Germany’s HeidelbergCement with its local subsidiaries (led by Italcementi) and Colacem. HeidelbergCement has 10 integrated plants and 10 grinding plant. Colacem has seven integrated plants and one grinding plant. All three companies have integrated production capacities of around 9 – 14Mt/yr. Since 2012 the market has shifted from six major producers to three. Sacci, Cementir and Cemenzillo have left the field following acquisitions by their competitors. Italcementi was taken over by HeidelbergCement in 2016.

Graph 1: Cement production in Italy, 2006 – 2017. Source: Italian Cement Association (AITEC).

Data from the Italian Cement Association (AITEC) shows that the impetus for this consolidation trend was the reduction in Italian cement production to 19.3Mt in 2017 from a high of 47.9Mt in 2006. Despite this though the country still has a total production capacity of 37.7Mt/yr, according to Global Cement Directory 2019 data, giving it an utilisation rate of just over 50%. Production picked up again in the north and central regions of Italy in 2017 but this was insufficient to counter declines in the south and Italy’s islands. Exports have held steady in this time at around 2 – 3Mt/yr but this represents a doubling share of production from 5% in 2006 to 10% in 2017. Production has been steadily dwindling year-on-year since 2006 but domestic consumption rallied a little to 18.7Mt in 2017.

The Italian government instituted its ‘Industry 4.0’ policy in early 2017 to boost competitiveness. This included modest growth forecasts of 1%. International Monetary Fund (IMF) data shows that the country managed gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.9% in 2018. Yet, Buzzi Unicem reported like-for-like net sales contraction of 0.9% in 2018. HeidelbergCement was more circumspect in its reporting on Italy for 2018 but it did describe a ‘moderate’ increase in sales volumes of cement excluding its acquisitions.

With the IMF diagnosing the Italian economy as ‘weak’ and cutting its growth forecast to 0.1% in 2019 the prospects aren’t looking encouraging for the cement sector. AITEC data placed cement consumption at 309t/capita in 2017. This is on the low side for Western European standards suggesting that, although more consolidation could be coming, the market may also be down too. Its not great news for cement producers but the Italian market is edging ever closer to recovery.

The European Union’s (EU) verified CO₂ emissions figures were released earlier this week on 1 April 2019. The good news is that no cement plant is within the top 100 largest emitters. All the top spots are held by power plants, iron and steel producers and the odd airline. Indeed, out of all of the verified emissions, cement clinker or lime production only represents 7% of the total emissions. Of course this is too much if the region wants to meet its climate change commitments but it is worth remembering that other industries have a long way to go as well and they don’t necessarily face the intrinsic process challenges that clinker production has. If the general public or governments are serious about cutting CO₂ emissions then they might consider, for example, taking fewer flights with airlines before picking on the cement industry.

The EU emitted 117Mt of CO₂ from its clinker and lime producers in 2018, a 2.7% year-on-year decrease compared to 120Mt in 2017. This compares to 158Mt in 2008, giving a 26% drop in emissions over the decade to 2018. However, there are two warnings attached to this data. First, there are plants on this list that have closed between 2008 and 2018. Second, there are plants that provided no data in 2018, for example, all the plants in Bulgaria. Climate change think tank Sandbag helpfully pointed out in its analysis of the EU emissions data that industrial emissions have barely decreased since 2012. The implication here being that the drop from 2008 to 2012 was mainly due to the economic recession. Sandbag also made the assertion that 96% of the cement industry’s emissions were covered by free allocations in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) thereby de-incentivising sector willingness to decarbonise.

By country the emissions in 2018 from cement and lime roughly correspond with production capacity, although this comes with the caveat that emissions link to actual production not potential capacity. So, Germany leads followed by Spain, Italy, Poland and France. Of these Poland is a slight outlier, as will be seen below.

Table 1: Top 10 CO₂ emitting plants in the European Union in 2018. Source: European Commission.

Poland leads the count in the top 10 EU CO₂ emitting cement plants in 2018 with five plants. Greece follows with two plants. This list is deceptive as all of these plants are large ones with production capacities of 2Mt/yr and above. As it contains many of the largest plants in the EU no wonder the emissions are the highest. It is also worth considering that there are far larger plants outside of the EU.

In summary, as most readers will already know, the cement industry is a significant minority CO₂ emitter in the EU. Countries with larger cement sectors emit more CO₂ as do larger plants. So far, so obvious. Emissions are down since 2008 but this mostly seems to have stalled since 2012, bar a blip in 2017. The change though has been the rising carbon price in the EU ETS in 2018. Coincidentally the carbon price has been fairly low and stable since 2012. If the mechanism is working properly then changes should start to appear in 2019. Already in 2018 a few European cement producers announced plant closures and blamed the carbon price. Watch this space.

The Global Future Cement Conference & Exhibition on low and zero CO2 cement production will take place in Brussels, Belgium on 22 - 23 May 2019

Cement price rises by the major Chinese cement producers boosted sales revenue and profits in 2018. This is quite a trick, given that overall cement sales in the country have fallen by 11% year-on-year to 2.17Bnt in 2018 from a high of 2.45Bnt in 2014.

Graph 1: Cement sales in China, 2009 – 2018. Source: National Bureau of Statistics China.

On the corporate side most of the major Chinese producers issued positive profit alerts towards the end of 2018 and this has been followed up by (mostly) glowing financial reports. Data from the National Development and Reform Commission in February 2019 showed that the profits of local cement companies more than doubled to US$64bn in 2018 compared to 2017. As mentioned above, this has been fueled by price rises. In December 2018 the average price of cement was 10.6% higher than in December 2017.

This has translated into a 19% year-on-year rise in sales revenue at China National Building Material Company (CNBM) to US$32.6bn in 2018 from US$27.4bn in 2017 and its profit grew by 44% to US$2.09bn from US$1.46bn. Anhui Conch’s performance was even better. Its revenue grew by 70.5% to US$19.1bn from US$11.2bn. However, differences emerge between the two companies in terms of cement sales volumes. CNBM’s sales volumes fell by 2.4% to 323Mt. However, Anhui Conch’s sales volumes increased by 25% to 368Mt. This may not be in line with the government’s plans to scale down production but it does fit the industry consolidation model, as the company acquired Guangdong Qingyuan Cement in 2018. The results from other producers such as China Shanshui Cement, West China Cement, Tianrui Cement and China Resources Cement all tell similar tales.

If the figures from the National Bureau of Statistics China (NBS) above are accurate then this is a drop of over 300Mt of cement sales over four years. This is more than the cement sales of every other country except India. Indeed, it’s more cement than some continents make! It marks the deceleration of the Chinese industry since 2014 and represents a major achievement. However, whether it is enough remains to be seen. After all, sales of over 1500kg/capita are still way above the consumption curve for developed Western-style economies. Yet, imports of cement to China from Vietnam rose in 2018, suggesting that the price rises are being driven by shortages of cement!

China is undoubtedly an exceptional case, as its economic star has blossomed in the last few decades and it has literally built itself into history. Yet one might expect its consumption to be around 1Bnt/yr, a per-capita level more similar to Spain and Italy prior to the financial crash. In other words, even if the recently observed 5% year-on-year contraction is maintained, the Chinese industry would only reach this (still very high) level by the mid 2030s. However, continued national development, mega-infrastructure projects, a shift to more exports and China’s unique market could hold the consumption per capita figure higher.

Meanwhile, Chinese producers are commissioning more and more projects outside of China. Notably, CNBM saw its cement sales everywhere except for the Middle East and China. Success abroad is not guaranteed. The story in the years to come will be the balance between projects at home and those abroad.