Analysis

2020 has been a year like no other and this clearly shows in the financial results of the major cement producers so far.

The first jolt is that several major Chinese cement producers have seen their sales fall. Following a tough first quarter due to coronavirus, the Chinese industry then overcame floods in the summer, to eventually report a decrease in cement output of 1.1% year-on-year to 1.68Bnt in the first nine months of 2020. The world’s largest cement producer, CNBM, reported a slightly smaller drop in sales year-on-year in the first nine months of 2020. This relatively small fall, just below 1%, may be due to CNBM’s size and diversity of business interests. Other large Chinese producers have noted bigger losses, such as Huaxin Cement’s 9% sales decline to US$3.04bn and Jidong Cement’s 5% sales fall to US$3.8bn. However, Anhui Conch actually saw a 12% rise in sales to US$18.7bn.

Graph 1: Sales revenue from selected cement producers, Q1 - 3 2020. Source: Company reports.

Graph 2: Cement sales volumes from selected cement producers, Q1 - 3 2020. Source: Company reports.

LafargeHolcim’s sales look worse in Graph 1 than they really are because the group was busy divesting assets in 2019. Its net sales fell by 7.9% on a like-for-like basis to US$18.7bn in the first nine months of 2020, a rate of change similar to HeidelbergCement’s. Being a properly multinational building materials producer brings mixed benefits given that these companies have suffered from coronavirus-related lockdowns in different times in different places but they have also been able to hedge themselves from this effect through their many locations. In the third quarter of 2020, for example, LafargeHolcim was reporting recovering cement sales in its Asia-Pacific, Latin America and western/central parts of its Europe regions but problems in North America. Again, HeidelbergCement noted a similar picture with cement deliveries up in its Africa-Eastern Mediterranean Basin Group area, stable in Northern and Eastern Europe-Central Asia and down elsewhere. How the latest round of public health-related lockdowns in Europe round off a bad year remains to be seen.

The other more regional producers are noteworthy particularly due to their different geographical distribution. Cemex has seen a lower fall in sales revenue and cement sales volumes so far in 2020, possibly due to its greater presence in North America. What happens in the fourth quarter is uncertain at best, with US coronavirus cases rising and the Portland Cement Association (PCA) expecting a small decline in cement consumption overall in 2020. Along similar lines, Buzzi Unicem appears to have benefitted from its strong presence in Germany and the US, leading it to report a below 1% drop in sales revenue so far in 2020, the lowest of the decreases reported here for the western multinational cement companies.

Looking more widely, UltraTech Cement, India’s largest producer, had to contend with a near complete government-mandated plant shutdown in late March 2021. The figures presented here are calculated for comparison with other companies around the world due to the difference between the standard calendar financial year (January to December) and the Indian financial year (April to March). However, they suggest that Ultratech Cement suffered a 14% fall in sales to US$3.9bn and an 8% decline in sales volumes to 56Mt, among the worst decline of all the companies featured here. This is unsurprising given that UltraTech mostly operates in one country. Sure enough it bounced back in its second quarter (June – September 2020) with jumps in revenue, earnings and volumes.

Finally, for a view of a region that hasn’t had to face coronavirus-related economic disruption of anything like the same scale, Dangote Cement has reported solid growth so far in 2020, with rises in sales and volumes both above 5%. Economic problems at home in Nigeria have seen relatively higher growth elsewhere in Africa in recent years but now the pendulum has swung back home again. The big news has been that the company has pushed ahead with plans to turn Nigeria into a cement export hub, with a maiden shipment of clinker from Nigeria to Senegal in June 2020. The vision behind this has expanded from making Nigeria self-sufficient in cement from a few years ago into making the entirety of West and Central Africa cement and clinker ‘independent.’

The big news internationally this week was of the reported effectiveness of a Covid-19 vaccine in early trials by Pfizer and BioNTech. It might not yet make it into people’s arms at scale but it shows that the vaccine appears to work and that others in development and testing may do too. Building material manufacturer share prices didn’t rally as much as airlines or cinema chains on the news, construction has carried on after all, but this is a positive sign that normality for both health and wealth is on the way back at some point in 2021. One point to consider, given the wide regional variation with the economic effects of coronavirus, is what effect a disjointed global rollout of a vaccine or vaccines might have. A building material manufacturer dependent on a region that stamps out the virus later than other places might face an economic penalty. Recovery seems likely in 2021 but it isn’t guaranteed and the implications of the coronavirus crisis seem set to persist for a while yet. Here’s hoping for a different outlook at this point in 2021.

Eurocement changed owners this week when Sberbank took control of the company’s parent organisation. Due to a ‘difficult financial situation’ the state-owned bank said it had consolidated 100% of the shares of Eurocement’s parent company GFI Investment Limited. It’s uncertain quite how difficult this situation is but in 2016 the cement producer owed the bank Euro700m. Local media agency RosBiznesConsulting (RBC) reported in September 2020 that the ‘problem borrower’ that had caused a record increase in overdue debt at Sberbank in July 2020 was none other than Eurocement. Whilst Sberbank has said so far that it does not have operational control of the group, it is seeking a strategic investor for the asset.

This is a major story given that Eurocement is Russia’s largest cement producer and it operates 19 cement plants Russia, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. It said it produced 16.5Mt of cement domestically in 2019 but this compares to a production capacity of around 50Mt/yr suggesting a considerably low utilisation rate of just one third! The producer has embarked on a modernisation programme in recent years but many of its plants are old and use wet-process production lines.

2019 finally saw the Russian cement market turn around following decline since 2015. Unfortunately, CM Pro reports that cement production in Russia as a whole fell by 5% year-on-year to 25.1Mt in the first half of 2020. Cement shipments fell by a similar rate. This trend appears to have carried on through July and August 2020. Cement consumption has fallen fairly uniformly in most regions with the exception of the Northwestern Federal District, which has seen a modest increase. In the middle of the year, Soyuzcement - the Union of Russian Cement Producers, was expecting wildly different scenarios ranging from falls of up to 10% in a negative situation to rebound of up to 3% in a positive one. It was pinning its hopes on government support for the construction industry in various ways. With the trend to August 2020, record breaking numbers of new coronavirus cases in early November 2020 and the onset of winter, it seems unlikely that Soyuzcement’s positive thinking will come to pass.

With this in mind who might want to buy into Eurocement? No doubt various private equity firms and local producers are watching the oil price carefully while they plan their next move. Internationally, LafargeHolcim seems the obvious western multinational contender with a presence in the country. Yet it seems unlikely it would want to take the risk, following its departure from certain regions like South-East Asia in recent years and persistent rumours about other divestment targets. HeidelbergCement’s balance sheet, credit lines and appetite for risk might not yet withstand a major investment in Russia. Buzzi Unicem has actually been expanding recently with an acquisition in Brazil but whether it’s prepared to bet on another market disrupted by coronavirus is unknown. China National Building Materials Group Corporation (CNBM) was reportedly planning on becoming a shareholder of Eurocement Group in 2016 but this may have just been bluster surrounding geopolitical links between Russia and China, and general cooperation between the companies on upgrading Eurocement’s old production lines. However, Russia is the next location in China’s Belt and Road initiative so it’s not ridiculous. Whoever steps up can expect the Russian government to take a keen interest, depending on how much control Sberbank wants to offer up of Eurocement. The story continues.

Buzzi Unicem beefed up its presence in Brazil this week with the announcement that it is buying CRH’s local cement plants through its Companhia Nacional de Cimento (CNC) joint-venture with Grupo Ricardo Brennand. The deal covers CRH Brazil’s three integrated plants at Cantagalo in Rio de Janeiro, and, Arcos and Matozinhos in Minas Gerais. It also throws in two grinding plants including the Santa Luzia Plant in Minas Gerais for a total of US$218m, although the final figure may change depending on conditions such as the net financial situation at the closing date.

The purchase brings up two trends. Firstly, it’s a continuation of CRH’s refocus on safe havens in Europe and North America. The Ireland-based building materials producer originally picked up these plants in the wake of the formation of LafargeHolcim in 2015 as part of a package deal for Euro6.5bn in its ‘bolt-on’ acquisition expansion phase. Most of the assets in that deal were in Europe and North America, although it did see CRH also build a presence in the Philippines.

Since late 2019 reports have emerged in the press about plans to sell up in Brazil and the Philippines. Whether CRH has made any profit on its sale in Brazil is hard to tell given the scale of its purchases from Lafarge and Holcim in 2015. The focus was likely on those key markets closer to home. Yet cement sales in Brazil peaked in 2014 before the national economy were hit by falling commodity and oil prices that contributed to a recession as well as the Petrobras political crisis. Sales bottomed out in 2018 and have been building steam since. Now is certainly the time to consider departure with a good price given the National Cement Industry Union’s (SNIC) glowing data for September 2020.

For Buzzi Unicem, the proposed acquisition represents the next step on its multinational ambitions, pushing Brazil into its fifth biggest territory in terms of cement production capacity after Italy, the US, Mexico and Germany. Its timing was good in September 2018, when it agreed to buy a 50% stake in the Brazilian company BCPAR from Grupo Ricardo Brennand for Euro150m, because local sales were finally starting to pick up. Once again Buzzi Unicem has also picked up cement production assets for a capacity price just below US$100/t. This time it faces a similar balance of uncertainty with the Brazilian cement industry reporting continuing growth but facing an uncertain future from the economic effects, locally and worldwide, from the coronavirus pandemic.

One point to note here is that as part of its deal with Grupo Ricardo Brennand in 2018, Buzzi Unicem had the right to buy the remaining 50% of BCPAR from Grupo Ricardo Brennand until 1 January 2025. Presumably, though, the option to buy Grupo Ricardo Brennand out of BCPA remains valid. This makes it interesting that Buzzi Unicem chose further expansion over consolidation of its existing business. Four years remain for it to buy the rest of BCPAR if it wants to.

Given the concentration of the Brazilian business in the south-east of the country it seems unlikely that the acquisition would be turned down since the enlarged BCPAR will hold a production base behind larger producers like Votorantim or InterCement. However, Cimento Nacional’s Sete Lagoas plant and CRH Brazil’s Matozinhos plant are both close in Belo Horizonte and this may cause concerns. Now it’s over to the Brazilian regulators to approve or decline the deal and the various parties to finalise.

Ed Sullivan was present to tell Global Cement Live viewers about the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) autumn forecast last week. The PCA expects US cement consumption to drop by 1.5% year-on-year on 2020. This is a weighted average of its three projections, which cover a gradual recovery from coronavirus-related economic disruption, a less controlled scenario and one where wide-spread vaccination has a positive effect in the second half of 2021. The first scenario is the PCA Market Intelligence’s most likely one but only the fast vaccination scenario predicts a return to growth in 2021. This is wide but understandable deviation from the PCA’s autumn forecast in 2019 that expected moderate growth albeit a slowly weakening economy. Almost nobody seriously expected 2020 to turn out like it has. Follow the link at the bottom of this article to view the presentation in full.

Graph 1: Portland & Blended Cement shipments by US region in 2019 and 2020. Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS).

We’ll now take a general look at the US cement industry so far in 2020 to compliment Sullivan’s economic overview. Up until 2020 cement consumption, production and imports had been growing steadily since the financial crash in 2008. Using August 2020 data the PCA says this is changing. Graph 1 above shows a general reverse of the position in the autumn of 2019 [LINK] with declines in the South and North-East and growth in the West and Midwest. Imports alongside this have continued to build. Overall, national cement shipments increased by 2.2% year-on-year to just under 50Mt in January to July 2020 from 48.9Mt in the same period in 2019. This was driven by growth of 10.8% in the Midwest. Missouri is the standout in the region, behind only Texas and California nationally as the third biggest cement shipping state so far in 2020.
From the corporate side, LafargeHolcim, the US’ biggest cement producer, described North America as having, “…the most resilience of all regions despite Covid-19 restrictions in some areas.” It reported an overall fall in cement volumes of 1.4% year-on-year to 8.9Mt in the first half of 2020. However, it didn’t go into specifics for the US. Cemex’s experience seemed to be doing better with an 8% rise in cement volumes supported by the infrastructure and residential sectors. HeidelbergCement went further and described the impact of coronavirus on the US economy as ‘significant.’ It reported a decrease in cement deliveries at its North American plants of 4.9%, to 7.1Mt. Both Buzzi Unicem and CRH reported cement sales growth of 4 – 5%, with CRH noting that, “strong volume trends in West supported by growth in our downstream businesses drove performance.”

Perusing the industry news reveals a slew of environmental stories. So far in 2020, Holcim US said it was going to run a carbon capture and storage (CCS) study at its Portland cement plant in Colorado, Alamo Cement signed a deal to build a solar farm, Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua’s (GCC) Rapid City plant in South Dakota announced plans for a wind farm, CalPortland launched a sustainable product line with a lower clinker factor, LafargeHolcim launched its ECOPact low-carbon concrete range, LafargeHolcim US also said it was adopting new environmental product declarations and Holcim US opened a solar power plant at its Hagerstown cement plant. There have been a few upgrade stories, like the new line being built at National Cement’s Ragland plant in Alabama or Lhoist’s new lime kiln projects, but Lehigh Hanson said it was suspending work on the upgrade to its Mitchell plant in Indiana in April 2020.

At this point all eyes are on the US Presidential election scheduled to run on 3 November 2020. Donald Trump’s long promised but never delivered infrastructure still hasn’t arrived although blame could be apportioned to both sides of the local political divide for this. The PCA believes that both presidential candidates will probably see it through although the Republicans’ interpretation might well involve more cement! In the interest of balance though, it also expects the Democrats to focus on low-income housing construction. At this stage it seems more likely that the early arrival of a coronavirus vaccine will have more impact on the cement industry in the short to medium term than the results of the election.

View Ed Sullivan’s presentation at Global Cement Live

There’s no single theme this week, just a few news stories of note that may have wider significance.

Firstly comes the news that Semen Indonesia subsidiary Semen Padang has been exporting 25,000t of cement to Australia. This follows a consignment of 35,000t of clinker to Bangladesh. The company is hoping to hit a cement and clinker export target of 1.58Mt in 2020 in spite of the on-going coronavirus pandemic. It reached 1.09Mt (about 70%) of this by mid-September 2020 through exports to Bangladesh, Myanmar, Philippines, Australia, Sri Lanka and Maldives.

The wider picture here is that local sales in Indonesia fell by 7.7% year-on-year to 27.2Mt in the first half of 2020 from 29.4Mt in the same period in 2019, according to data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI). Cement and clinker exports are up by 32.8% to 3.7Mt from 2.8Mt. Semen Indonesia’s revenue is down but it has managed to hold its earnings up so far. During press rounds in late August 2020 its marketing and supply chain director, Adi Munandir, told local press that he expected domestic demand to fall by up to 15% in 2020 due to effects of coronavirus on private construction and government infrastructure plans. Analysts reckon that the worst of the demand slump hit in the second quarter of 2020 when government-related coronavirus restrictions were implemented, so Semen Indonesia’s third quarter results will closely scrutinised.

One of Semen Padang export targets is the Maldives. This chimes with another story this week because Oman-based Raysut Cement has just bought a majority stake in a cement terminal from Lafarge Maldives for US$8m. The 9000t capacity Thilafusi cement terminal is located on the island of Thilafusi, Kaafu and was expanded in 2015. Raysut Cement has tended to stick to markets in the southern Arabian Peninsula and the east coast of Africa, with projects planned in Madagascar and Somaliland. Yet expansion plans in places further away such as India and Georgia have also been mentioned publicly. A greater presence in the Maldives is a solid step towards Raysut heading eastwards. This would also mirror the plans of the country’s gypsum sector to dominate African and Asian markets and a general longer term shift in global markets from west to east.

One place west that has been doing well in cement though is Brazil. National Cement Industry Union (SNIC) data for September 2020 show a 21% year-on-year boom in cement sales to 5.8Mt and a 9.4% year-on-year increase to 44.6Mt for the first nine months of 2020. Earlier in the year the country’s limited coronavirus suppression methods were attributed for letting the recovering cement sector grow. Now, SNIC has directly thanked government support for civil construction. However, Paulo Camillo Penna, the president of SNIC said. “The results are surprising so far, but that doesn't give us security in the long run,” due to a bubble of real estate and commercial activity that already appears to be declining. Given the slump in cement demand from 2015 to 2018 it’s understandable that SNIC is taking the recovery cautiously.

And to finish we have two connected stories about Cemex. Following the release of its resilience strategy in September 2020, the company has now declared that its integrated Rüdersdorf cement plant in Germany will be the centrepiece of its CO2 reduction plans as part of ‘Vision Rüdersdorf.’ Details are light at present but we expect some kind of carbon capture and storage or usage project. An addendum to this – or perhaps it’s the other way round (!) – is that Cemex has also just announced further credit amendments but with sustainability-linked metrics. Cemex’s chief financial officer (CFO) Maher Al-Haffar said, “We are especially proud that this transaction represents one of the largest sustainability-linked loans in the world.” The teeth of this arrangement remain to be seen but the integration of finance and sustainability has serious implications generally.

Watch out for a research and development themed interview with Cemex and Synhelion in the December 2020 issue of Global Cement Magazine