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Dalmia Bharat goes central
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
14 December 2022
Further consolidation of the Indian cement sector looked closer this week with the news that Dalmia Bharat’s cement subsidiary has agreed to buy the remaining cement plants from Jaiprakash Associates. The US$685m deal covers cement and power plants in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. It includes clinker production capacity of 6.7Mt/yr, cement capacity of 9.4Mt/yr and 280MW of captive power capacity.
Chart 1: Map of Dalmia Bharat’s cement plants in November 2022 with region of proposed new plants highlighted in orange. Source: Adapted from Dalmia Bharat investor presentation.
The acquisition gives Dalmia Bharat the opportunity to draw level with Shree Cement in terms of cement production capacity. If the deal completes, then both cement companies will hold a capacity of around 46Mt/yr. This puts them behind UltraTech Cement and Adani Group nationally. In terms of the cost, the proposed acquisition works out at around US$73/t of cement capacity, although this doesn’t take into account the additional captive power generation capacity. This compares to US$119/t for UltraTech Cement’s purchase of Jaiprakash Associates plants in 2017 and US$97/t for Adani Group’s purchase of Holcim’s Indian-based business in September 2022.
Dalmia Bharat’s rationale for its move this week was that it wants to grow in the Central Region of the country and work towards a capacity target of 75Mt/yr by the 2027 financial year and at least 110Mt/yr by the 2031 one. It backed this up in an investors’ presentation by saying that cement consumption was around 170kg/capita locally and that the region represented about 15% of national demand at 54Mt/yr. This roughly checks out with regional integrated/clinker production capacity distribution analysis that Global Cement Weekly carried out in June 2022. Only the East region was lower, but this didn’t take into account grinding plants or new projects.
Completion of the agreement is planned by December 2023 and is subject to the usual regulatory approvals. However, readers may recall the difficulties UltraTech Cement had in the mid-2010s when it attempted to buy two plants from the subsidiary of Jaypee Group. Problems stemming from an amendment to the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) (MMDR) Act caused the original proposal to be rejected by the Bombay High Court in early 2016. UltraTech Cement bounced back though with a deal to buy far more plants instead. This deal completed successfully in mid-2017.
Jaypee Group’s debts have also caused problems along the way. Indeed, this is the reason why it has finally decided to leave the cement business altogether. In early December 2022 it reported its latest default on interest payments towards some of its loans. Overall its outstanding debt was US$3.39bn. Due in part to this, there have been plenty of stories in the local press over the last decade on whoever was reputedly buying the Jaypee Group’s cements assets. In October 2022, for example, Adani Group was reportedly in advanced talks to buy Jaypee Group’s remaining cement business until it denied it publicly. One deal that did reach fruition was Dalmia Bharat’s purchase of Bokaro Jaypee Cement back in 2014 from a joint-venture majority controlled by Jaypee Group. That agreement gave it full control of the 2.1Mt/yr Bokaro grinding plant in Jharkhand. Looking at the current proposed acquisition, one commentator from HDFC Securities in the local business press noted that detail on the transaction is lacking, such as what will happen to existing limestone reserves. Another pointed out that the deal was probably 30 – 40% below the replacement cost because the plants were old, lack of interest from potential buyers and due to the “likely need for additional CAPEX to run operations.”
If the Dalmia Bharat - Jaiprakash Associates deal completes then it marks the end of an era for the Indian cement industry as one of the big players bows out of the sector. It shows once more that, despite the mounting fuel and raw material costs in 2022, companies are still seeing big opportunities. In its December 2022 report, the ratings agency ICRA found that cement sales volumes grew by 11% year-on-year to 187Mt in the first half of the 2023 financial year. The acquisition might also, hopefully, put an end to the endless speculation about who Jaypee Group might be selling its cement plants to! Although, of course, the question then becomes who else might be considering divesting cement assets.
Update on Ethiopia, December 2022
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
07 December 2022
Derba MIDROC Cement signed a contract with Sinoma International Engineering in recent weeks to build a US$282m upgrade at its integrated Derba cement plant in Oromia. The move is the latest in a steady stream of projects that have been announced in Ethiopia over the last few years. Other recent developments include a deal in July 2022 by businessman Getu Gelete to buy PPC’s stake in Habesha Cement and plans in August 2022 by investor Worku Ayetenew to build a US$1bn cement plant with a production capacity of 12,000t/day. Alongside these capital intensive projects, the government has been trying to regulate the price of cement through measures such as setting fixed prices, limiting the volumes that individuals can buy and asking producers to cut distributors out of the supply chain.
To summarise some of the plant projects over the last couple of years, the Derba MIDROC Cement upgrade project intends to double the production capacity of the integrated Derba cement plant in Oromia to 15,000t/day. The other big ongoing project was announced in early 2021 when East African Holding and China-based West China Cement agreed to build a 10,000t/day plant at Lemi in Amhara Region. East African Holding is the parent company of National Cement, one of the larger producers in the country. Then in July 2021 Sinoma International Engineering’s subsidiary Suzhou Sinoma signed an initial deal with Western International Holdings, West China Cement’s international arm, to build the plant. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited the construction site in March 2022 to lay the foundation stone but no commissioning date has been disclosed so far. Based on Sinoma’s assessment when it signed the contract, construction would take around 20 months, so a commissioning date by late 2023 seems reasonable. There are also a number of other projects that have been announced in the local press such as Abay Industrial Development Share Company plant at Dejen. FLSmdith said that the contract to build the 5000t/yr plant became effective in late 2020. However, not much more has been released publicly. Another project at Berenta in Amhara is also reportedly under construction.
The Global Cement Directory 2022 places the country’s production capacity at around 12Mt/yr. This compares to 15Mt/yr from 13 companies as reported by a local news source although this figure is likely to also include grinding plants. Yet the same source also placed the actual working capacity at 6Mt/yr due to old machinery and poor maintenance. As for the market in Ethiopia, Dangote Cement said that the sales from its Mugher plant rose by 1.8% year-on-year to 1.7Mt in the first nine months of 2022 and that the unit was running at full capacity in the third quarter. It reckoned that it held a 42% market share during this period, out of a total market of around 4.2Mt. Previously it said that the total market for the whole year was 7Mt in 2021.
Unfortunately it also mentioned issues with security in the region. This became a live issue this week with news that at least 30 employees of Dangote Cement were reportedly kidnapped in early December 2022 by an armed group that calls itself the Oromo Liberation Army. This is particularly sad for the company given that its country manager was shot dead in 2018. Two employees of the Mugher Cement plant were also taken hostage by the same group in October 2022 although thankfully they were later freed.
A number of projects have been announced in Ethiopia over the last few years but they appear to be taking a while to materialise. This time though a couple of the projects do seem to be on the way and the change in ownership of Habesha Cement seems to suggest a renewed vigour to the local construction market since the government opened up investment. Unfortunately, security concerns are pressing as demonstrated by what happened to some of Dangote Cement’s staff this week.
Energy for the European cement sector, November 2022
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
30 November 2022
This week’s Virtual Global CemPower Seminar included an assessment on how interventions in European power markets might affect efforts to decarbonise industry. The presentation by Thekla von Bülow of Aurora Energy Research outlined how different countries in the European Union (EU) were implementing the forthcoming electricity price cap on ‘inframarginal’ producers to 180Euro/MWh. Each of these different proposals will entail differing levels of structural change to the wholesale energy market. For example, the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) has recommended establishing a series of frameworks including a stronger focus on Contracts for Difference (CfD) schemes to promote renewable energy sources.
These changes are a consequence of the EU’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Gas prices surged and then pushed up other energy prices in turn to record levels. As this column covered in September 2022, the price of electricity shot up in the summer of 2022 whilst at the same time Russian gas imports ceased. Cembureau, the European Cement Association, called for urgent action to be taken to support cement production due to large increases in the cost of electricity. For example, in its latest overview of the German cement industry, the German Cement Works Association (VDZ) said that the sector has an electrical consumption of 30TWh/yr. Clearly energy policy is of great interest to the industry.
Since then, in late September 2022, Heidelberg Materials’ chief executive officer Dominik von Achten told Reuters that his company was preparing to shift production at its Germany-based plants to times and days when power prices are lower including at the weekend. However, this was dependent on negotiations with the unions. Von Achten also warned of plant closures being a possibility. Then, in November 2022, it emerged that Zementwerk Lübeck’s grinding plant in northern Germany had reportedly been only operating its grinding plant at night and at the weekend due to high electricity prices. Also in November 2022 European energy news provider Energate Messenger reported that Heidelberg Materials was preparing its cement plants in Germany with emergency backup power to keep critical services running in the case of electricity power cuts. One view from the outside came from equipment supplier FLSmidth’s third quarter results where it noted it had, “...started to see the first cases of budget constraints imposed by customers to counter the increasing energy cost. A high utilisation is still driving service activity in Europe, but some customers have put large capital investments on stand-by and we have experienced a slowdown in decision-making processes.” On the other hand it also pointed out that this trend is driving sales of products that helped reduce energy usage and/or switch to alternative fuels.
On the financial side, Holcim reiterated in its half-year report that, on the country, level the group uses a mixture of fixed price contracts, long-term power purchase agreements, on-site power generation projects and increased consumption of renewable energy at competitive prices to reduce the volatility from its energy bills. Both Cemex and Heidelberg Materials said similar things in their third quarter results conference calls. Cemex said that nearly 70% of its electricity requirements in Europe were fixed in 2022 with nearly 30% fixed for 2023. It went on to reveal that around 20% of its total costs for cement production in Europe derived from its electricity bill. Interestingly, it added that a higher proportion of its electricity costs in Germany were fixed than elsewhere in Europe, due to the use of a waste-to-electricity system owned by a third party that is fed with refuse-derived fuel (RDF), but that it was more exposed to floating fuel rates in Spain. Heidelberg Materials added that it supported energy price caps in both Germany and the EU whether they affected it directly or not.
So far it has been a mild start to winter in Europe. This may be about to change with colder weather forecast for December 2022. This will stress test the EU’s energy saving preparations and in turn it could force the plans of industrial users, such as the cement sector, to change. Some of the cement producers have commented on the financial implications of rising fuel costs but they have been quieter publicly about how they might react if domestic consumers are prioritised. Plant shutdowns throughout cold snaps are the obvious concern but it is unclear how likely this is yet. The variety of energy policies between fellow member states, their own supply situations and the differences between cement plants even in the same country suggest considerable variation in what might happen. If large numbers of cement plants do end shutting throughout any colder periods, then one observation is that it will look similar to winter peak shifting (i.e. closure) of plants in China. The more immediate worry in this scenario though is whether these plants actually reopen again.
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Update on CRH, November 2022
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
23 November 2022
CRH released its third quarter trading statement this week and the results were rosy, especially when compared to its peers in the cement business. Double digit growth in both sales revenue and earnings was reported for the nine month period so far in 2022. The company’s figures mainly attributed this to growth in its Americas Materials and Building Products divisions, although the presentation in its trading update took care to point out that the Europe Materials division had reported growth in the first half of 2022 only for it to run into a slowdown in the third quarter as energy prices increased. Even this wasn’t as bad on a like-for-like basis, with only earnings down in the third quarter in Europe. Chief executive officer Albert Manifold summed it up as follows: “This performance reflects the resilience of our business and the benefits of our integrated and sustainable solutions strategy.”
Manifold’s focus on integrated products was unsurprising given that the group has spent US$3bn in the year to date on businesses that make these kinds of things. These acquisitions have been added to its Building Products division adding to its already strong growth so far in 2022. The big one was the US$1.9bn deal to buy Barrette Outdoor Living, a US-based retailer and distributor of residential fencing and railing products. This was completed in July 2022. Other so-called bolt-on investments in 2022 have reached a total of US$1.1bn for 20 companies including Calstone, Hinkle, Rinker and Normandy in outdoor living, road and critical utility infrastructure sectors.
At the same time the group divested its architectural glass Building Envelope business for an enterprise value of US$3.8bn to private equity company KPS Capital Partners. That deal was completed in May 2022. On a smaller scale, it is also worth noting that Thomas Gruppe announced in early November 2022 that it had signed a purchase agreement to buy Opterra Zement and Opterra Beton. This includes the integrated Karsdorf cement plant, the decommissioned Sötenich grinding plant and the Neufahrn ready-mix concrete plant. However, there was no mention by Thomas Gruppe of the integrated Wössingen plant operated by Opterra Wössingen. Neither Opterra or CRH appears to have commented on this publicly yet though.
How CRH tweaks its business portfolio is interesting in comparison to the other cement companies. As Global Cement Magazine has covered recently, Holcim is bulking up a fourth business in light building materials and Cemex, Heidelberg Materials and others are similarly diversifying away from cement production to various degrees. CRH has generally held a more mixed portfolio away from the heavy materials trio of cement-concrete-aggregates over the last decade. However, it concentrated more on heavy materials when it picked up assets divested in the merger of Lafarge and Holcim in 2015. Since then it has been steadily pulling out of developing markets and focusing on North America and Europe. So, to see CRH moving out of the building envelope sector at the same time as Holcim and others dive in is a clear difference in approach.
The other point to highlight is that Manifold links sustainability to the group’s integrated products plan in his quote above. Earlier in 2022 the company revealed a new 25% reduction target in absolute CO2 emissions by 2030, that has been certified by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), and a continued goal of becoming net-zero by 2050. It clearly takes sustainability seriously as Manifold was also previously the president of the Global Cement and Concrete Association when it was set up in 2018. Other indicators include the company’s use of an internal carbon price as indicated in its 2021 sustainability report. It also mentioned here that 43% of its direct CO2 emissions were covered under an emissions trading scheme. One implication here is that focusing on doing business in developed markets means that the group has to take its CO2 emissions seriously, as legislators in these places do too.
CRH is one of the largest building materials companies in the world and its cement business has grown and shrunk a little over the last decade. Despite this it remains in the top 10 of cement producers globally based on production capacity. Its purview of multiple markets in building materials continues to make it a company to watch as the more traditional heavy materials cement companies adjust their own product portfolios.
Update on Bangladesh, November 2022
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
16 November 2022
The Infrastructure Development Company in Bangladesh announced this week that it had agreed to loan Crown Cement US$25m to help it add a new mill to its cement grinding plant at Munshiganj, south of Dhaka. If completed it will be the plant’s sixth mill. Originally known as MI Cement the plant has a production capacity of 3.3Mt/yr and the most recent mill was added in 2017. The plan to add a sixth mill dates back to 2019 but was revised in 2021 with a total investment of US$90m. Securing a loan marks a significant step forward for the project.
The timing to expand a cement plant in Bangladesh is interesting given the problems facing the local cement sector. In August 2022 Mohammed Alamgir Kabir, the president of the Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association (BCMA), told the Daily Star newspaper that cement producers were facing both falling investment in infrastructure development and private projects. The local cement industry imports 90% of the raw materials it uses and most of the country’s cement plants grind cement use imported clinker. However, the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic created supply chain problems leading to higher costs of raw materials, dearer transportation charges and started to push up global energy prices. This was then exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and negative currency exchange effects as the Bangladeshi Taka fell in value against the US Dollar. In words echoing cement associations in other parts of the world, Kabir suggested that cement producers now faced the option of either continuing to raise prices or simply shutting down production.
The local cement production capacity utilisation rate appears to be around 56% based on data from a recent feature in the Financial Express newspaper. It placed total production capacity at 83Mt/yr from 37 active plants but demand at only 47Mt/yr. This is similar to the reported utilisation rate of 54% back in 2017 from a total production capacity of 50Mt/yr. Data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) suggests that cement production picked up in 2021 but then declined on a monthly year-to-date basis between December 2021 and February 2022. However, the BBS only reports production from a sample of plants. Masud Khan, the chief advisor to Crown Cement and its former chief executive officer, placed the cost of all that unused capacity at US$40/t or something like an investment of US$1.46bn for idle manufacturing potential. In his view, the larger local producers forecast an increase in demand around five to 10 years ago and invested accordingly to avoid losing market share. However, some smaller companies may also have done the same.
The local sector has likely been able to cope with a relatively low capacity utilisation rate previously because it was ‘grinding heavy.‘ How the current problems have shown themselves on cement company balance sheets has been mixed though. LafargeHolcim Bangladesh’s sales revenue and profit grew by 8% year-on-year to US$166m and 7% to US$32.2m in the nine months to September 2022. It was probably able to do this, in part, due to the fact that it operates one the few integrated plants in the country and it has direct access to limestone reserves across the border in India. By contrast, HeidelbergCement Bangladesh’s sales fell by 3% year-on-year to US$90.7m in the first six months of 2021 and it made a loss of around US$2m. Aramit Cement’s revenue fell by 60% year-on-year to US$6.09m in the nine months to March 2022 and it reported a loss. Premier Cement Mills increased its revenue by 5% to US$99m in the same period, although its net profit dropped by 91% to US$387,000. Crown Cement’s revenue rose by 16% to US$13m but its net profit fell by 81% to US$1.32m.
Geopolitics, high energy prices and local problems are all combining to make life difficult for cement producers in Bangladesh. As the market adjusts to the current situation the determining factor here is likely to be the cost of grinding cement to end users versus just importing cement directly. Current conditions do not seem to be stopping Crown Cement though nor LafargeHolcim Bangladesh. The latter, for example, launched a new blended cement product, Supercrete Plus, earlier in November 2022. One way out for the others might be explore exports and the BCMA suggested just that to the government over the summer, although this doesn’t seem like the most obvious solution for a country that imports so much of its raw materials.