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Obstacles for Obajana
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
26 October 2022
Dangote Cement’s Obajana plant has been the focus of an argument between the cement producer and the Kogi State Government (KSG) in recent weeks. The integrated plant was forced to close in early October 2022 and then reopened in mid-October 2022 following an order by the Federal Government. The dispute then entered a legal phase, with the state government taking Dangote Cement to court. The case is ongoing.
The current stage of the disagreement dates back to late August 2022 when the Kogi State House of Assembly reportedly set up a committee to investigate the shares that the state owned in Dangote Cement and other organisations as part of an initiative to examine tax revenue from mining companies. By the end of September 2022 this had turned into a discussion about how exactly Dangote Cement had originally acquired its shares in the Obajana cement plant in Kogi state as well as how much tax it was paying. In early October 2022 the local government ordered the closure of the plant. Events then turned nasty as local vigilantes attacked the plant and hurt some of its staff. In the general unrest that followed the Kogi State House of Assembly was destroyed in a fire. The plant partially reopened fairly quickly and then fully once the Federal Government intervened. Legal action was then started at the Kogi High Court.
Unusually for this kind of disagreement both sides have published detailed information on their respective arguments. Dangote Cement’s parent company Dangote Industries outlined how it originally came to build and own the Obajana cement plant. In short, it signed deals in 2002 and 2003 to buy a 100% stake in Obajana Cement from the KSG, before the plant was built, with the proviso that the state could later buy a 5% share within five years. Dangote Industries then independently financed and built the plant and Obajana Cement later became Dangote Cement. Crucially, according to Dangote Industries, KSG never bought its 5% share. On the opposing side, the KSG has published what it says is the original contract and annexes that it signed with Dangote Industries. This agrees with some of what Dangote Industries has said, especially the part about the option to buy a 5% stake within five years. However, according to reports in the local press, KSG is attempting to persuade the judiciary to cancel the original contract on the grounds that it lacked clear consideration of what should pass from the state to Dangote Industries in return for giving the latter full ownership of Obajana Cement. In other words, the KSG is querying whether the contract is valid given that it received apparently nothing for giving a company away.
The Obajana cement plant was later built and it became operational in 2007. Today it is the largest cement plant in Nigeria and one of the largest in Africa. It produces around a third of the country’s cement and this is why its closure earlier in October 2022 became a national issue. Since the early 2000s Dangote Cement has become the biggest cement producer in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is both a success story for the region and the world.
There may be issues with the perceived or actual contribution Dangote Cement is making locally in Kogi State. These are the kinds of issues that both companies and governments contend with continually. Companies consider where it is cost effective to place investments and governments try to entice them. It is possible that the KSG gave Obajana Cement to Dangote Industries in what it retrospectively considers is a poor deal. It is also possible that Dangote Cement has not paid sufficient tax, although it strongly denies this, and the KSG seems to have moved on from this line of attack. What may be the bigger issue here is if Dangote Cement is perceived to have not paid its dues in Kogi State. However, it seems odd that the KSG would suddenly decide to go after Dangote Industries nearly 20 years after agreeing to the deal. It also seems strange that no lawyer for either party flagged the consideration issue at the time. Thankfully calmness has now prevailed in the state and the cement plant remains open. It is for the courts to decide the validity of the original contract between Dangote Industries and the KSG.
Holcim pays the price
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
19 October 2022
Doing deals with terrorists has a price: US$778m. The US Department of Justice (DOJ) revealed this week that it had fined Lafarge for its conduct in Syria between 2013 and 2014. In addition Lafarge and its subsidiary Lafarge Cement Syria (LCS) have pleaded guilty to one count of conspiring to provide material support to designated foreign terrorist organisations in Syria. It is uncertain how exactly the fine will be paid but it is worth noting that successor company Holcim reported net sales of nearly US$27bn in 2021. The fine represents nearly 2% of this.
A reasonable amount of new detail can be found on the DOJ website. LCS was essentially dealing with the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the al-Nusrah Front (ANF) as they would a local government in relation to the running of the Jalabiyeh cement plant. As a reminder, both of these groups were defined as terrorist organisations by the US government at the time. The relationship apparently started as monthly payments to local armed groups, including ISIS and ANF, to allow movement through checkpoints. This later progressed to a de-facto tax based on cement sales. However, it became worse when LCS started asking ISIS to block or tax imports of cement from Turkey-based competitors into northern Syria as part of a revenue-sharing agreement. Effectively LCS was fixing the price of cement in a war zone by collaborating with terrorists. In the end LCS, the intermediaries and the terrorist groups made around US$80m whilst they were working together.
Holcim’s interpretation of the ruling was keen to point out that the conduct in Syria was recognised by the DOJ as not involving Holcim in any way. The DOJ did agree that Lafarge’s executives didn't disclose their activities in Syria to its successor company Holcim either before or after the merger in 2015. However, it pointed out that Holcim had not carried out due diligence of LCS’s operations in Syria. It added that, “Lafarge, LCS and the successor company also did not self-report the conduct or fully cooperate in the investigation.”
Despite this, other information that Holcim also highlighted was that the US authorities were now happy that effective compliance and risk management controls were in place to prevent anything similar happening again. Crucially, it said that the DOJ didn’t think that an independent compliance monitor was required. It pointed out that none of the conduct involved Lafarge’s operations or employees in the US and that none of the Lafarge executives were working for Holcim or any associated company. Finally, the group wanted to report that the DOJ found that none of the former Lafarge executives involved shared any of the “methods, goals or ideologies” of the terrorist groups operating in area at the time.
The immediate reaction from all of this is what happens to the ongoing legal case in France, also about Lafarge’s conduct in Syria? In mid-May 2022 the Court of Appeals confirmed a charge of complicity in crimes against humanity against Lafarge. The company then reportedly started the appeal process at the Supreme Court. Other charges, including financing terrorism, endangering life and violating an embargo, were lodged earlier in the legal process. The US is generally seen as being the leading prosecutor of international corporate crime but if the French legal system also issued a fine to Lafarge on the same scale things could become difficult for Holcim. The other complication for the French legal case is that the national intelligence services allegedly used Lafarge’s links with the Syrian terror groups to acquire information but they did not warn the company that it was committing a crime.
Holcim is a different company from what it was when LafargeHolcim formed in 2015. It is being run by a new chief executive officer who came in from another company well after the merger and is diversifying away from the trio of cement, concrete and aggregates with the addition of a fourth business area of light building materials. Alongside this the group has been selling off businesses in the developing world and focusing on Europe and North America. Yet it is still being defined by the criminal actions of a company it absorbed seven years ago and the behaviour of staff long gone. Those actions have been investigated and punishment delivered. More may be coming.
Update on the Philippines, October 2022
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
12 October 2022
Cement imports are back on the agenda this week in the Philippines with the news that the Tariff Commission has backed repealing the duties currently being implemented. If it’s anything like what happened last time, back in 2019, the commission’s opinion will once again be passed back to the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) for the final decision. The safeguard measure the commission wants to cut covers Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) and Blended Cement. It summarised the situation as follows, “There is no existence of an imminent threat of serious injury and significant overall impairment to the position of the domestic cement industry in the near future.”
The commission reviewed the sector between 2019 and 2021 and concluded that the domestic cement industry maintained its market position, increased its mill capacities, stabilised its manufacturing costs and improved its profitability. It found that local producers recovered their profits in 2021, following the coronavirus pandemic. It also noted that imports continued to rise whilst the safeguard measure was in force. Volumes of imported OPC and blended cements increased at levels above 10% year-on-year in both the 2019 – 2020 and 2020 – 2021 periods. They also rose by 7% year-on-year to 3.51Mt in the first half of 2022 compared to the half-year average from 2019 - 2021. In the commission’s view, relaxing the duties on imported cement would slow price rises for both locally produced and imported cement leading to an overall national economic benefit.
Local cement producers in the Philippines are likely to be unhappy with the Tariff Commission’s recommendation. The Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines (CEMAP) spent the summer of 2022 lobbying for the safeguard measure to be extended past October 2022. It too pointed out that imports of cement had continued to grow even whilst the increased duties had been levied from 2019. A few days before the commission’s decision was published, APO Cement said that it had temporarily suspended operations at its Davao terminal. The subsidiary of Cemex Philippines blamed imports of cement, particularly from Vietnam, for the decision.
Yet, the local sector has been active over the last year with a number of capacity upgrades being launched or underway. In January 2022 the government gave tax breaks to San Miguel Equity Investments for the construction of a 2Mt/yr cement plant in Mindanao. In February 2022 San Miguel subsidiary Southern Concrete Industries said it was doubling the capacity of an upgrade to its grinding plant at Davao del Sur, with initial commissioning planned in mid-2022. Meanwhile, Solid Cement’s upgrade of a new production line at its integrated plant in Antipolo, Rizal, has been ongoing since it officially started in 2019. The current commissioning date for the subsidiary of Cemex is now expected in early 2024. In August 2022 Taiheiyo Cement Philippines held a groundbreaking ceremony for the start of construction of a new production line at its integrated San Fernando plant in Cebu. The US$85m project is due to be commissioned in mid-2024. Finally, importer Philcement revealed in late September 2022 that it had taken out a US$1.73m loan for an expansion and upgrades to its Mariveles cement terminal in Bataan.
Holcim Philippines’ president and chief executive officer Horia Adrain told local press in July 2022 that the cement sector was continuing to recover in 2022, following the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, but that the pace would be slower. And so it proved, with reduced revenue, earnings and profits reported by Holcim for the first half of 2022. Costs rose due to higher fuel and energy prices like elsewhere in the world but a construction ban in connection with the presidential election in May 2022 didn’t help either. Both CRH and Cemex Philippines reported a similar situation in their financial results. However, Eagle Cement did manage to raise its revenue in the same period.
The Tariff Commission has been explicit with its opinion about the impact of imports upon the local cement sector. Investment by the local producers has been forthcoming with a number of new plants and upgrades on the way. Finally, despite the market recovering since 2020, there has been less growth in the first half of 2022 due to global energy prices and the country’s elections. This last point has handed a gift to the cement producers as any further reductions in growth can be blamed on imports, whether it is connected or not. One thing is certain, if or when the safeguard measures are lifted, then the regular calls to restrict imports will resume just like they did prior to 2019.
- Philippines
- Tariff Commission
- Import
- Department of Trade and Industry
- Government
- Duty
- Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines
- CEMAP
- Cemex Philippines
- Cemex
- Terminal
- Plant
- Upgrade
- APO Cement
- San Miguel Equity Investments
- Southern Concrete Industries
- Taiheiyo Cement Philippines
- Taiheiyo Cement
- Holcim Philippines
- Holcim
- coronavirus
- election
- GCW578
- Eagle Cement
- CRH
- lobbying
- Vietnam
Update on Peru, October 2022
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
05 October 2022
Cemento Yura said it was considering expanding cement and lime production this week. The announcement, made in an interview to business newspaper Gestión, follows a strong second quarter for the subsidiary of Grupo Gloria with clinker production volumes jumping up by 36% year-on-year to 0.51Mt. Overall for the half-year its clinker and cement production rose by 12.8% year-on-year to 0.86Mt and 12.7% to 1.47Mt. The success was attributed to consistent demand from the domestic sector as well as various large-scale mining projects. Julio Cáceres, the commercial director for its Cement, Concrete and Lime Division in Peru, Chile and Bolivia, wouldn’t say where the company was considering heading next, other than that remarking that it was attentive to new markets.
As Cáceres’ job title implies Cemento Yura also operates cement plants outside of Peru. At home it runs one integrated plant in the south of the country near to Arequipa as well as a lime plant at Juliaca. Outside of Peru though it also runs two integrated plants and a grinding unit in Bolivia, via its Sociedad Boliviana de Cemento (SOBOCE) subsidiary, and two integrated plants in Ecuador, via its Union Cementera Nacional (UCEM) subsidiary. The company also has assorted concrete assets. The international aspect to Cemento Yura’s business is interesting given that the larger cement producers in Peru are dominant in different parts of the country with Cementos Pacasmayo in the north, UNACEM (Unión Andina de Cementos) in the centre around Lima and Cemento Yura in the south. Notably, UNACEM also runs a plant in Ecuador and one in Arizona, US. It is also worth mentioning that competition issues have been reported in the local market previously. In mid-2021 Peru’s competition authority, the National Institute of the Defense of Competition and Intellectual Property Protection (INDECOPI), investigated Cemento Yura.
Cemento Yura’s rise in clinker production in the second quarter of 2022 is worth considering because in a previous interview with the local press Humberto Nadal, the chief executive officer of Cementos Pacasmayo, said that importing clinker had become more expensive in 2021. Subsequently, the company started a US$70m upgrade at its Pacasmayo plant to increase its production capacity by 0.6Mt/yr. In its second quarter financial results for 2022 Cementos Pacasmayo directly credited a 27% increase in its earnings on higher operating profits arising from decreasing costs by using less imported clinker. Sure enough data from Association of Cement Producers (ASOCEM) shows that both cement and clinker imports started to fall in October 2021 and have mostly followed a downward trend since then. Clinker imports fell by 41% year-on-year to 0.66Mt from January to August 2022 compared to the same period in 2021.
Graph 1: Cement production in Peru, 2014 – present. Source. Association of Cement Producers (ASOCEM).
Looking at the wider picture in Peru, cement production has stayed fairly consistent since 2014 at around 10Mt/yr. An upward trend probably started in 2019 but then the Covid-19 pandemic cut it off in the first half of 2022 before the market surged back in the second half of that year. 2021 was a good year with production peaking at 12.9Mt. So far the first eight months of 2022 have seen production rise by 5.3% year-on-year to 8.64Mt.
In summary, cement production is rising in Peru, importing clinker appears to have become more expensive for at least one of the producers and some of the larger local companies are investing in new production capacity, considering it or thinking about acquisitions elsewhere. Local clinker producers appear to be in a good place; clinker importers, or those reliant on it, not so much.
Update on Kenya, September 2022
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
28 September 2022
Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote was spotted attending the inauguration ceremony of Kenyan President William Ruto earlier in September 2022. This is relevant because Dangote’s cement company previously announced plans in 2016 to build two 1.5Mt/yr plants in Kenya, near Nairobi and Mombasa respectively. They were intended to become operational by 2021. Unfortunately, Dangote himself allegedly described Kenya as being more corrupt than Nigeria to Kenyan broadcast journalist Jeff Koinange a few years later and nothing more happened. Back in 2014 Ruto visited Dangote Cement’s Obajana plant in Kogi state in Nigeria when the politician was the Deputy President of Kenya. Dangote’s attendance at the presidential inauguration this month suggests at the very least that his relationship with Ruto remains active. Maybe more news on those planned plants will follow.
Graph 1: Cement in Kenya, 2018 – June 2022. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).
The reason why the owner of Africa’s largest cement company might be interested in the Kenyan market can be seen in its latest cement production figures. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that production for the first half of 2022 grew by 20% year-on-year to 4.95Mt in the first half of 2022, from 4.12Mt in the same period in 2021. Cement production was broadly similar in 2018 and 2019 at around 6Mt. It then increased by 25% to 9.25Mt in 2021 from 7.41Mt in 2020. On a rolling annual basis, production picked up at the start of 2020 and has risen consistently since then each month, peaking at over 10Mt in May 2022.
However, the elections in August 2022 probably slowed this growth trend, despite being much more peaceful than those in 2007, although the KNBS is yet to release the data. Bamburi Cement said in its outlook for the second half of 2022 that it expected markets to recover after the ballot. The subsidiary of Holcim reported increasing turnover in the first half of 2022, due to mounting sales volumes and price rises, but its profit fell sharply. It blamed this on fuel and logistics inflation, growing clinker import costs as well as negative currency exchange effects.
That last point about imported clinker is worth noting given that a government report in late 2021 found that the country had a clinker shortage of up to 3.3Mt/yr. Yet, the KNBS data in recent years shows that cement production and consumption are broadly similar, suggesting that the shortfall in clinker is being imported. The report added that 59% of the imported clinker originated from Egypt, tariff free, due to a free trade agreement. Local producers were reported to have been operating at a 65% capacity utilisation rate. Egypt and the UAE accounted for most of the imported clinker followed by Saudi Arabia. An interview in the Standard newspaper at this time with Bamburi Cement’s managing director Seddiq Hassani revealed that, despite locally produced clinker being cheaper than imported clinker, some producers were reluctant to hand control of a key input material over to their local competitors. Other producers, predictably, were trying to persuade the government to raise the duty on imports of clinker from 10% to 25%. Tariff discussions have continued in 2022.
So far in 2022 the other big stories in the sector have included Bamburi Cement’s plans to build two solar power plants and a major repair to the kiln shell at East Africa Portland Cement’s (EAPCC) Athi River cement plant. The solar plants will be built next to Bamburi Cement’s integrated Mombasa plant and its Nairobi grinding plant. Once operational in 2023 they are anticipated to supply up to 40% of the cement producer’s total power supply. Devki Group, the owner of National Cement, also announced plans in August 2022 to set up a wind farm near Mombasa. However, this seems more like an attempt to diversify the group into electricity production rather than to supply its own plant near Nairobi. EAPCC’s upgrade project has completed this week after about a month and half of work. It is intended to increase the plant’s cement production by 50%.
Cement production started in rise in 2020 but the Covid-19 pandemic may have constrained this. Production (and consumption) then jumped up in 2021 and looks set to do similar in 2022 bar a possible blip from the elections in August 2022. This is despite the global market issues arising from the end of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. These may be uncertain times but the fundamentals for the Kenyan cement market look positive despite rising end prices. Unsurprisingly, it looks likely that Dangote Cement remains keen to extend its business to Kenya.