Analysis

Northern Region Cement announced this week that it is planning to build a new cement production line in Iraq. It has signed an engineering, procurement, and construction deal with Germany-based KHD and its parent company AVIC for the supply of a 1.3Mt/yr production line. The contract has been valued at US$139m with a duration of 16 months, suggesting that the earliest the new plant might be commissioned would be from early 2025.

The Saudi Arabia-based company operates an integrated cement plant at Arar in Northern Borders Province and an integrated plant at Muwaqar, near Amman, in Jordan. It also took over a grinding plant in Basra, Iraq, in 2017 and runs this via its Um-Qasr Northern Cement subsidiary. It has not been disclosed so far where the new production line in Iraq will actually be or what type of equipment is being supplied. However, the price suggests a clinker pyro-processing line.

The timing of this project is noteworthy as it follows a number of other such announcements so far in 2023. In mid-August 2023 China-based Sinoma International Engineering said that it had signed a US$219m deal with Al-Diyar Company for Cement Industry and Industrial Investment to build a 6000t/day clinker production line with a 50MW captive power plant. The project is located in the Samawah area of Al Muthanna Province. First clinker production is scheduled from mid-2025. This followed the start of construction at another project in the Erbil province in the Kurdistan region of the country in June 2023. Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani laid the foundation stone for a new 6000t/day cement plant. The DCCP Cement and Power plant is being built by local partner Dabin Group and China-based China Power Investment Corporation (PowerChina).

In May 2023 Pakistan-based Lucky Cement revealed that it was preparing to build a second production line at its integrated plant at Samawah. It runs the plant under the Najmat Al Samawah joint venture together with UAE-based Al Shumookh Group. The first 1.31Mt/yr line at the plant was started up in 2021. It said that the new proposed 1.82Mt/yr production line was intended to take advantage of renewed economic activity in Iraq, benefit from increasing numbers of construction projects and further supply clinker to Lucky Cement’s grinding plant joint-venture at Basra. Construction work on the new line was expected to start by September 2023 with a completion date scheduled by mid-2025. Earlier still in March 2023 the Iraqi General Cement Company signed a deal with Turkey-based Zodiac for the latter to build a new 1.8Mt/yr plant at the Hammam Al-Alil Complex in Nineveh Governorate.

The Cement Manufacturers Association in Iraq (CPA) has reported various meetings in 2023 it has held with the Minister of Industry and Minerals with the aim of supporting the sector. In March 2023 it was discussing developing a five year plan to increase cement production with the aim of surpassing a capacity of 40Mt/yr. For reference the Global Cement Directory 2023 placed local capacity at just under 10Mt/yr. Then, in June 2023, the conversation had moved on to talking about awarding new licences to build plants on a regional basis, warnings that capacity is growing too fast and setting standards.

All of this is positive news 20 years on from the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the insurgency that followed. The local economy has benefited from high oil prices and a period of political stability, followed by infrastructure investment. Holcim runs two cement plants in Iraq via its Lafarge Iraq subsidiary and it noted “strong domestic cement demand” in the country in 2022. The number of new cement plant projects so far in 2023 underlines a new confidence in the market. Unfortunately the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip threatens to undermine the previous period of calm should hostilities spread. However, the news from Northern Region Cement about its proposed new plant suggests that some level of business confidence remains for now.

UltraTech Cement approved a US$1.5bn capacity expansion plan this week. The initiative intends to add 21.9Mt/yr in production capacity by setting up four new cement plants, four upgrades and four new terminals. It will also add 39MW in waste heat recovery (WHR) units and alternative fuels feeding and handling investments. Commercial production at the new sites is scheduled to start from the 2026 financial year onwards.

The company is India’s largest cement producer by production capacity and the third biggest globally outside of China. Yet it is still growing as this latest announcement shows. Kumar Mangalam Birla, the chair of parent company Aditya Birla Group, revealed the ambition earlier this year, that UltraTech Cement wants to reach a production capacity of 200Mt/yr in the near future. This is likely to be ordinary Portland cement (OPC) capacity from both integrated and grinding plants. It reported a figure of 132Mt/yr in its annual report for the 2023 financial year. This latest capacity investment is its third in recent years. In December 2020 it announced investment of just below US$560m to add 12.8Mt/yr of capacity with commissioning by around the end of the 2023 financial year. It later confirmed that most of this had been completed on schedule. Then another US$1.55bn investment was ordered in June 2022 to add 22.6Mt/yr. This tranche of new plants and terminals is planned to be completed by the end of the 2025 financial year.

Graph 1: UltraTech Cement’s OPC production capacity and utilisation rate, 2017 - 2023 financial years. Source: Company annual reports.

The graph above shows how the company’s capacity has grown since 2017. This is the year in which it acquired 21Mt/yr of capacity from Jaiprakash Associates for US$2.5bn. These plants then show up in the capacity figure for 2018. The next big bump to capacity arrived in 2019 when UltraTech Cement was able to complete its purchase of Century Textiles & Industries, adding another 15Mt/yr of capacity. Since then though it has mainly been newly built plants or upgrades. It is also worth noting the capacity utilisation figures the company has reported. There has generally been an upward trend since 2017 with a dip during the Covid-19 pandemic years in 2020 and 2021. This has also been happening despite adding more capacity through both acquisitions and building new plants. The other point to note is that the cement company is mostly a wholly India-based one. It has presences in the UAE, Bahrain and Sri Lanka but these are small compared to the operations back home. In the 2023 financial year, 23 of its 24 integrated plants were domestic, 25 out of 29 grinding plants were and seven out of eight terminals were too.

UltraTech Cement’s current nearest rival, Adani Group, appeared on the scene in 2022 when it bought Holcim’s subsidiaries in India. The timing may have been coincidental but, after Holcim agreed to sell to Adani Group in May 2022, UltraTech Cement announced its US$1.55bn capacity drive in June 2022. A year later in June 2023 Adani Group targeted a capacity of 140Mt/yr by 2028. To give an idea of the market both of these companies are competing in, Ratings Agency ICRA’s last forecast in September 2024 predicted that cement volumes would grow by 9 - 10% in the 2024 financial year. Capacity expansion by all cement producers was expected to be driven by “steady demand for housing and increased government investments in infrastructure.”

UltraTech Cement may be the fastest expanding cement company in the world at the moment. India certainly needs the cement as its population overtook China’s in April 2023. The Aditya Birla Group company is not taking any chances with its competitors by maintaining its lead in capacity. One risk it may want to watch out for though is India’s nascent Carbon Credit Trading Scheme. Some form of carbon trading for the petrochemicals, steel, cement and paper sectors looks set to start in the second half of the 2020s. However, any such scheme is likely to favour incumbent manufacturers with newer plants. With the country’s net zero target set at 2070, UltraTech Cement has plenty of room to manoeuvre.

Cementos Molins has been celebrating the first anniversary this week of its alternative raw materials unit at its Sant Vicenç dels Horts plant near Barcelona. It has processed 75,000t of waste since September 2022 when the site started up. More is yet to come as the unit has a production capacity of up to 200,000t/yr. The facility receives waste in coarse, granular, powder and sludge formats. Waste from concrete plants is crushed and screened to produce recycled aggregate. Industrial and construction waste is dosed and homogenised to produce alternative raw materials for cement production.

Global Cement Weekly has covered construction and demolition waste (CDW) a couple of times already so far in 2023. A number of cement producers are investing in the sector - including Holcim, Heidelberg Materials, CRH, Cemex – by developing technology, buying up other companies, setting up internal CDW divisions and so on. Holcim and Heidelberg Materials have been the more obviously active participants over the past six months based on media coverage. In September 2023 Holcim France commissioned the Saint-Laurent-de-Mûre alternative raw materials plant and Holcim Group invested in Neustark, a company promoting technology to sequester CO₂ in CDW. In August 2023 Lafarge Canada also completed the first stage of a pilot project to use CDW in cement production at its St. Constant plant in Quebec. Heidelberg Materials meanwhile announced in October 2023 that a forthcoming upgrade to its Górażdże cement plant in Poland would include a new CDW recycling unit and in September 2023 it launched a CDW division for its subsidiary Hanson UK.

Previously we have described how the European Union (EU) has set recovery targets for CDW. However, McKinsey & Company published research in March 2023 setting out the economic case for cement and concrete companies looking at CDW. It estimated that “an increased adoption of circular technologies could be linked to the emergence of new financial net-value pools worth up to roughly Euro110bn by 2050.” It is not a certainty and there is risk involved, but adopting circular practices is one way to reduce this risk. It then went on to predict that recirculating materials and minerals could generate nearly Euro80bn/yr in earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the cement and concrete sectors by 2050. The biggest portion of this could come from using CDW in various ways such as a clinker replacement or as an aggregate in concrete production, or the use of unhydrated cement ‘fines.’ Capturing and using CO₂ and increasing alternative fuels (AF) substitution rates would have a financial impact but not to the same scale.

Graph 1: CO₂ abatement cost via circular technologies for cement and concrete sectors. Source: McKinsey & Company.

Graph 1 above puts all of the McKinsey circular technology suggestions in one place with the prediction that all of these methods could reduce CO₂ emissions from cement and concrete production by 80% in 2050 based on an estimated demand of 4Bnt/yr. The first main point they made was that technologies using CO₂, such as curing ready-mix or precast concrete, can create positive economic value at carbon prices of approximately Euro80/t of CO₂. Readers should note that the EU emissions Trading Scheme CO₂ price has generally been above Euro80t/yr since the start of 2022. The second point to note is that using CDW could potentially save money by offering CO₂ abatement at a negative cost through avoiding landfill gate fees and reducing the amount of raw materials required. This is dependent though on government regulation on CO₂ prices, landfill costs and so on.

Cement producers have been clearly aware of the potential of CDW for a while now, based on the actions described above and elsewhere, and they are jockeying for advantage. These companies are familiar with the economic rationale for AF and secondary cementitious materials (SCM) in different countries and locations. CDW usage is similar but with, in McKinsey’s view, existing CO₂ prices, landfill costs, and regulatory frameworks all playing a part in the calculations. Graph 1 is a prediction but it is also another way of showing the path of least resistance to decarbonisation. It is cheaper to start with AF, SCMs and CDW rather than barrelling straight into carbon capture. The beauty here is that cement and concrete sold, say, 50 years ago is now heading back to the producers in the form of CDW and it still has value.

Heidelberg Materials reversed the prevailing wisdom for western multinational cement companies this week when it said it was preparing to buy a cement plant in Indonesia. It announced on 17 October 2023 that its Indonesia-based subsidiary Indocement had signed a deal to acquire all the shares of Semen Grobogan’s integrated cement plant in Central Java for an undisclosed sum. This challenges the trend since the mid 2010s of the likes of Holcim and CRH selling up in the developing world and concentrating instead in markets in North America and Europe.

The decision to buy a cement plant in Indonesia raises eyebrows because the country can produce far more cement than it needs at present. Its cement capacity utilisation rate has been below 60% since 2020 and Central Java has the most plants out of all the nation’s regions. Indocement’s own investor relations presentation for the first half of 2023 laid out data from the Ministry of Industry and internal sources forecasting that the utilisation rate would only reach 57% in 2025. National production capacity meanwhile is around 117Mt/yr at present and expected to reach just below 120Mt/yr in 2025.

Before this latest agreement, Indocement operated four integrated plants in the country and it was the country’s second largest cement producer after Semen Indonesia. Heidelberg Materials bought the company in 2001 and currently owns a 55% share in it. Three of these plants it owns directly, with a capacity of around 25Mt/yr across 14 production lines. One of these is the 18Mt/yr Citeureup plant, one of the world’s largest cement plants. However, in 2022 the company leased the Maros integrated cement plant in South Sulawesi, the Banyuwangi grinding plant in East Java and several cement terminals owned by Bosowa Group, including terminals in Makassar, Barru and Garongkong, via production facility lease agreements. It said this was part of a plan to reduce logistics costs and target the east of the country better. The integrated plant has been leased for three years from March 2022 and the grinding plant and terminals for five years from September 2022.

Semen Grobogan’s plant started commercial production in 2022, has a cement production capacity of 2.5Mt/yr and limestone reserves of over 50 years. Germany-based Heidelberg Materials was keen to point out that the acquisition would reward it with “significant synergies with Indocement’s existing plants in Indonesia” such as in logistics, alternative fuels, and transfer of technical and sustainability knowledge.

It is worth noting financially that Indocement suffered a couple of bad years during the Covid-19 pandemic with revenue and profit down. However, the situation improved in 2022 with both net revenue and earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the year up by 11% year-on-year to US$1.04bn and 4% to US$220m respectively. Despite the company’s sales volumes falling by 2% to 17.6% and energy prices increasing it was able to raise its prices. The first half of 2023 has seen the improvements accelerate with more price rises, higher domestic sales volumes from the new leased operations and increased clinker exports to Bangladesh and Brunei.

The improving financial outlook for Indocement and the new condition of many of its clinker production lines may help to explain what is going on here. The Citeureup plant started up in late 2016 and, combined with the Semen Grobogan plant that started up in 2022, both plants cover three-quarters of the company’s production capacity. In a highly competitive market such as Java this may make a significant difference. Consider also the leased plant at Maros, in the less well-served Sulawesi region, and that focus on terminals elsewhere. Here one might be able to view another approach to coping with overcapacity, by targeting different markets either directly or via exports.

It won’t be clear how well Heidelberg Material’s strategy in Indonesia is working until like-for-like financial figures start to be released. The company itself has warned of various risks such as the country’s impending ban on overloaded trucks and the potential effects of a proposed carbon tax on electricity prices. Another thing to consider are last week’s rumours in the press about Heidelberg Materials selling up in India. If this did happen then the proceeds might well help advance the company’s plans in Indonesia. All of this goes to show that one doesn’t always have to copy one’s corporate peers. The retreat by the western multinationals to safer havens has slowed… for now at least.

The Indian corporate rumour mill ramped up this week with speculation that UltraTech Cement and Adani Group might possibly be interested in buying Heidelberg Materials' assets in India. This follows the story broken by the Economist newspaper last week that JSW Cement had made an unsolicited offer to buy them. However, when HeidelbergCement India was asked by the Bombay Stock Exchange what exactly was going on, it replied that it was unaware of any such development and that it did not comment on market speculation.

A week later though and now another related story has popped up. In this case it is unclear exactly what the Hindu newspaper actually knew. The country’s two largest cement producers are locked in a battle for capacity expansion and any opportunity is likely to be of interest to them both. Yet the newspaper did quote a source who said that any divestment by HeidelbergCement India (HCI) would involve a “full-fledged bidding process,” implying that something may be going on.

Germany-based Heidelberg Materials operates four main subsidiaries in India: Gulbarga Cement; HC Trading (India); HCI; and Zuari Cement. HCI and Zuari Cement are the main two in terms of cement production. Heidelberg Materials entered the market in 2006 via a number of purchases and a joint-venture. It then acquired Zuari Cement via its takeover of Italcementi in 2016. Between them the two subsidiaries operate four integrated plants, three grinding plants and one terminal in Central and Southern India. Altogether the company says it has a total cement production capacity of 14Mt/yr. Gulbarga Cement, meanwhile, is a long running project via Zuari Cement to build a new integrated plant at Gulbarga in Karnataka. As of mid-2021 at least the company was still finalising planning and permitting requirements.

HCI’s income fell by 3% year-on-year to US$275m in the financial year to the end of March 2023 from US$282m in the same period that ended in 2022. Its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) dropped by 39% to US$35.4m from US$58.2m, its lowest figure since at least its 2017 financial year. The company blamed this on higher fuel prices, although it has been trying to offset this by optimising its fuel and power mix. Unfortunately, it was not able to pass these costs on to its customers through price rises due to competition and new cement plants being commissioned in its market areas. Its revenue and profits improved somewhat in the quarter to July 2023. Recent financial data on Zuari Cement appears to be unavailable, possibly in part due to the company changing the dates of its financial year in 2020. However, it reported revenue of US$249m in its 2021 financial year, a broadly comparable figure to HCI’s. When asked during the company’s earnings call in July 2023, HCI’s managing director Joydeep Mukherjee did confirm that the company was looking at a potential merger with Zuari Cement. However, the company was waiting for the right time before it would consider actually doing it.

The Indian cement market has been consolidating in recent years. Companies have been increasing their production capacity, competition has been intensifying and the spike in fuel prices in 2022 battered profits. Adani Group’s acquisition of Holcim’s businesses in 2022 has probably been the most visible example of this trend towards mergers and acquisitions. It follows UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Jaiprakash Associates in 2017. Heidelberg Materials has been steadily selling off bits and pieces of its cement business since the mid 2010s but at a slower pace than Holcim. Selected sales have occurred in Italy, Spain, Georgia, Ukraine and various countries in Africa, but the biggest was the sale of its US West region to Martin Marietta Materials for US$2.3bn in 2021. It reinforced this process with its ‘Beyond 2020’ strategy with the stated aim to simplify its country portfolio and prioritise its strongest market positions. A large-scale divestment of its operations in India would certainly fit with this plan. Whether the current reporting is accurate or not, Heidelberg Materials’ intentions for its Indian operations are certainly worth keeping an eye on.