Analysis

LafargeHolcim’s announcement this week that it is to close its headquarters in Paris is the latest sign of the tension within the world’s largest cement producer. The decision is rational for a company making savings in the aftermath of the merger of two rivals – France’s Lafarge and Switzerland’s Holcim – back in 2015. Yet, it also carries symbolic weight. Lafarge was an iconic French company that had been in operation since 1833. Its hydrated lime was used to build the Suez Canal, one of the great infrastructure projects of the 19th century.

In the lead up to the merger in 2015 the union of Lafarge and Holcim was repeatedly described as one of equals. However, the diverging share price between the two companies killed that idea on the balance sheets in early 2015. Renegotiation on the share-swap ratio between the companies followed with an exchange ratio of nine Holcim shares for 10 Lafarge shares. In the end Holcim’s shareholders ended up owning 55.6% of LafargeHolcim. Lafarge’s Bruno Lafont lost out on the top job as chief executive officer (CEO) in the frenzy but the role did go to another former Lafarge executive. The new company also retained its former corporate offices in both France and Switzerland.

Since the merger LafargeHolcim has underperformed, reporting a loss of Euro1.46bn in 2017. Former senior executives from Lafarge have become embroiled in a legal investigation looking at the company’s conduct in Syria. LafargeHolcim’s first chief executive officer Eric Olsen resigned from the company in mid-2017 following fallout from a review into the Syria affair. Both Olsen and Lafont are currently under investigation by the French police into their actions with respect to a cement plant that the company kept operational during the on-going Syrian conflict. Olsen’s replacement, Jan Jenisch, is a German national who previously ran the Swiss building chemicals manufacturer Sika.

Regrettably the closure of LafargeHolcim’s corporate office in Paris will also see the loss of 97 jobs although some of the workers in Paris will be transferred to Clamart, in the south-western suburbs of the city. Another 107 jobs will also be cut in Zurich and Holderbank in Switzerland.

One more knock at the local nature of cement companies in the very international arena they operate in doesn’t mean that much beyond bruised national pride. British readers may mourn the loss of Blue Circle or Rugby Cement but the country still has a cement industry even if it mostly owned by foreign companies. France’s industry is doing better as it recovers following the lost decade since the financial crisis in 2008.

Jump to 2018 and LafargeHolcim is being run by a German with links to Switzerland, Holcim shareholders had the advantage during the merger, its former Lafarge executives and assets are facing legal scrutiny over its conduct in Syria and Lafarge’s old headquarters in Paris are being closed. LafargeHolcim in France still retains the group’s research and development centre at Lyon and a big chunk of the local industry. Yet Holcim has held an advantage ever since the final terms of the Lafarge-Holcim merger agreement were agreed so this slow slide to Switzerland is not really a surprise. From a distance it feels very much like the Holcim acquisition of Lafarge is finally complete.

UltraTech Cement’s deal to buy the cement business of Century Textiles & Industries could see it become the world’s third largest cement producer by production capacity outside of China.

It announced this week that it had entered into an acquisition agreement to buy the cement subsidiary of BK Birla Group for US$1.26bn. If the deal completes then it will gain three integrated plants in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra respectively with a combined production capacity of 11.4Mt/yr and a 1Mt/yr grinding plant in West Bengal. At this point UltraTech Cement will increase its production capacity to 106Mt/yr seeing it become the third largest cement producer in the world in Global Cement’s Top 100 Report.

This latest deal is subject to the usual regulatory approval from competition bodies and the like. Bustling past this step seems far from clear at this stage given that UltraTech Cement owns cement plants already in each of the four states the proposed purchases are in. It has described the purchase as giving it, …”the opportunity for further strengthening its presence in the highly fragmented, competitive and fast growing East and Central markets and extending its footprint in the Western and Southern markets.” Synergy savings from procurement and logistics are expected to follow with further benefits to be gained from the company’s distribution network. Local and national competitors may not see it the same way and the fallout from a price war could be damaging for smaller producers.

As covered previously, UltraTech Cement seems hell bent on winning its on-going fight against Dalmia Bharat to buy Binani Cement. Rightly or wrongly UltraTech Cement tried to muscle its way into buying Binani by making a bid directly to its owners after it lost an auction for it. Legal wrangling has followed as the insolvency process for Binani Cement has clashed against the auction process of the administrator. At the time of writing it is still far from clear which company will win.

Comparing the prices of the two latest acquisition targets by UltraTech Cement may offer some insight of its motivations. The Binani Cement assets roll in at just over US$125/t of production capacity. Although, as noted below, some of this is located outside of India. The Century Textiles & Industries assets are being purchased for a little over US$100/t. This is interesting as it is lower that the Binani cost, although the close links between BK Birla Group and UltraTech Cement’s owner Aditya Birla may help to explain this.

UltraTech Cement’s milestone as it surpasses the 100Mt/yr capacity level will mark a continuing change in the world’s cement industry as it moves away from Europe and North America to developing economies. As ever the classification is a bit of a fudge given that Global Cement’s top producers list excludes Chinese producers. Partly this arises from the difficulty obtaining reliable data on the Chinese industry. Partly this comes from top producer’s list looking at multinational companies over (extremely) large national ones. Due to this UltraTech Cement remains a regional player. Or it will at least until it (or if it) manages to buy Binani Cement. Some of the assets included in that sale include plants in both the UAE and China. At this point UltraTech Cement’s claim to be the third biggest cement producer in the world will be secure.

Votorantim shone a glimmer of hope for the Brazilian cement industry with the release of its first quarter financial results this week. Increased sales volumes in Brazil, Turkey, India and Latin America led to an 11% rise in revenue to US$682m in the period. Admittedly back home in Brazil, most of this came from concrete and mortar sales, but after the slump Brazil’s had they’ll take whatever they can get. This compares to a 14% drop in sales revenue in the same period in 2017 due to falling cement consumption.

Graph 1: Accumulated 12 months local cement sales in Brazil. Source: SNIC.

SNIC, Brazil's national cement industry association, preliminary figures for April 2018 show a similar trend. Cement sales for April 2018 rose by 8.9% year-on-year to 4.35Mt from 4Mt. Sales for the first four months of the year dipped slightly by 0.2% to 16.9Mt although this is an improvement on the first quarter figures showing the benefit a strong April has had. Improvements are driven by growth in the central and southern parts of the country. SNIC’s graph of accumulated sales (Graph 1) definitely shows a slowing trend of decreasing cement sales with April 2018 being the only the second month in over two years where sales have risen.

Paulo Camillo Penna, the president of SNIC, even went as far as to speculate that the three months from April to June 2018 might see the first sustained period of improvement since 2015 and that sales could even grow by 1% for the year as a whole. This is a far cry from Penna’s description of his industry at the start of 2017 as, “One of the worst moments in its history.”

Votorantim reported that some regions of Brazil were starting to show a positive trend in the second half of 2017. Unfortunately it wasn’t enough to stop the cement producer’s overall sales falling for the year. LafargeHolcim didn’t release specific figures for its Brazilian operations in 2017 but it did say that its cost savings programme had, ‘provided for material improvement versus prior year both in recurring earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) and cash flow.’ It reckoned that despite the market contracting, it had managed to increase its market share. Meanwhile, on the supplier side RHI Magnesita said in a first quarter trading update that its cement and lime business was flat due to continuing low capacity utilisation rates in China and Brazil.

If this truly is the end of the Brazilian cement market slump then it seems surprising that there haven’t been more mergers or acquisitions. Mineração Belocal, a subsidiary of Belgium’s Lhoist, said this week that it had purchased L-Imerys, a lime producer that operates a plant at Doresópolis in Minas Gerais. Local refractory producer Magnesita merged with RHI in mid-2017.

The big deal that hasn’t happened is the sale of InterCement, the country’s second largest cement producer. Owner Camargo Corrêa was reportedly selling minority stakes in the company in 2015. Then in early 2017 local press said that it was aiming for a price of US$6.5bn for the whole company with Mexico’s Cemex as a potential bidder. Since then nothing has happened publicly although the initial public offering of InterCement’s Argentine subsidiary Loma Negra in November 2017 for US$954m may have bought Camargo Corrêa the time it needed to wait for the market to improve. Rumours of a public listing of InterCement’s European and African operations have followed.

In its World Economic Outlook in April 2018 the IMF forecast a 2.8% rise in gross domestic product (GDP) in Brazil in 2018. If SNIC’s forecast for 2018 is correct then Camargo Corrêa may have survived the worst of the slump to live to trade another day. The price for InterCement at this point can only rise, as should the prospects of the Brazilian industry.

Along with most of the other multinational cement producers the weather and a shorter reporting period has given LafargeHolcim an easy target to blame its first quarter troubles on. Cement and overall sales both grew by over 3% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis but its earnings have fallen.

The problem appears to have arisen from falling earnings in Europe and its Middle East African regions. The decline in Europe was pinned on the weather, less working days and a disproportionate impact of maintenance shutdowns despite positive market trends in most countries. However, in Middle East Africa the finger was pointed squarely at ‘challenging’ conditions in key markets. If the trends from late 2017 continued then the hotspots causing LafargeHolcim trouble were likely to be Algeria, Egypt and Nigeria. That reliance on key markets is contrasted in Asia Pacific where markets in Indian and China have provided sufficient sales and profit growth to overcome problems in South East Asia. HeidelbergCement, its nearest multinational competitor with first quarter results out today, seemed to cope better with increased sales volumes of cement driven particularly by Indonesia and India.

Graphs 1: First quarter cement sales volumes and sales revenue for LafarageHolcim, 2015 – 2018. Source: Company reports. 

The graph above doesn’t seem to show the benefits the merger between Lafarge and Holcim promised back in 2015. Remember though that LafargeHolcim has been steadily reducing in size. Like-for-like sales generally show a much better situation.

In the latest results chief executive Jan Jenisch was keen to move on and focus on the group’s reorganisation plan, Strategy 2022. It has targeted net sales growth of 3 – 5% and recurring earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of at least 5%. Both look achievable based on previous quarterly and annual reports although the switch to recurring EBITDA from operating EBITDA makes it harder compare the first quarter of 2018 with the one in 2017.

The other notable change in recent months has been the decision by Thomas Schmidheiny to leave the board of LafargeHolcim. He has been named as the group’s honorary chairman and he will remain as a major shareholder of the group. During the negotiations to merge Lafarge and Holcim in 2015, Schmidheiny held out to get a better deal leading to Lafarge’s Bruno Lafont losing out on the chief executive role. Instead, that position went to Lafarge’s Eric Olsen who was succeeded by Jenisch in October 2017. Lafont and Olsen have since been enveloped by the French legal investigation into Lafarge Syria’s conduct during the Syrian Civil War.

How much of a difference Schmidheiny’s departure from the board of LafargeHolcim will make remains to be seen. However, the sense that Jan Jenisch is making changes to the group is palpable with changes made to its corporate structure in December 2017 followed by the introduction of the wider Strategy 2022 initiative. With the bad weather hopefully ended for the year all eyes will be on the half-year results.

There is lots to mull over for the cement industry from last week’s Global Slag Conference that took place in Prague.

One striking map from Michael Connolly, TMS International, showed the status of slag and steel products in the US. It was a multi-coloured patchwork of different regulatory statuses from approval to be used as a product to regulatory exclusion. This won’t come as a surprise to many readers but even within one country the way slag can be used legally varies.

As this column reported last year after the Euroslag Conference, the European Union can be presented in a similar way. The irony here is that increased use of slag and other secondary cementitious materials (SCM) is exactly the kind of change the cement and concrete industries need to make to decrease their carbon emissions. Constant quibbles over whether slag is a product or a waste undermine this. Happily then that Connolly was able to report progress in the US as lobbying by industry and the US National Slag Association have led to more states legally accepting slag as a product.

However, cement producers have other concerns in addition to environmental ones when it comes to slag usage as Doug Haynes from Smithers Apex explained. Haynes, a former UK steel industry worker turned consultant, spoke around a market report on the future of ferrous slag. His take on Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) slag was that despite fuel savings, decreased CO₂ emissions and the benefits of embodied iron when it is used as a raw material for clinker production, it is in the interests of cement producers for slag to be a waste because they then get it for free or at a reduced rate. It’s a similar story to the use of waste-derived fuels powering cement plant kilns where producers want lower fuel costs but waste collectors want value for their product. Unsurprisingly, Haynes wanted cement producers to accept the value embodied in BOF slag.

Charles Zeynel of ZAG International, an SCM trader, then laid out the situation where global SCM supplies are remaining static but cement demand is growing. Coal-fired power station closures are reducing supplies of fly ash, another SCM, placing pressure on existing granulated blast furnace slag (GBS) slag supplies. The message was very much in a slag trader’s favour but instructive nethertheless. If slag is in demand then the price will rise. Anecdotally, the increased number of cement producers at the conference seemed to indicate increased interest of the cement industry in the product.

Lots more speakers followed on topics such as slag beneficiation, grinding advances and new innovations. On grinding, one surprise that popped up was that Spain’s Cemengal has sold a Plug & Grind Vertical mill to CRH Tarmac’s cement plant at Dunbar in Scotland. It is the first such sale of this product in Europe. The last speaker, Jürgen Haunstetter of the German Aerospace Centre, stuck out particularly with his presentation on using slag as a thermal energy storage medium in a concentrated solar power (CSP) plant. This may not seem connected to the cement industry but it is along similar lines to Italcementi’s project at the Aït Baha cement plant in Morocco, which uses a CSP process that can be used with the plant’s waste heat recovery unit.

The Global Slag Conference will return in April 2019 in Aachen, Germany.

Read the full review of the 13th Global Slag Conference 2018