Analysis

Mining and materials company Afrimat said it was buying Lafarge South Africa this week. The assets it is acquiring include aggregate quarries, ready mix concrete (RMX) batching plants, one integrated cement plant, two cement grinding plants, cement terminals and fly-ash sources. The means of purchase is somewhat unusual, as Afrimat is paying around US$6m but it also appears to be taking responsibility for around US$50m of outstanding debt that Lafarge South Africa owes its parent company, Holcim. In a statement Afrimat’s chief executive officer (CEO) Andries van Heerden talked up the benefits for his company in terms of the boost to its aggregates and concrete businesses.

This is quite the change from 2012 when India-based Aditya Birla Group was reportedly looking into buying Lafarge South Africa. At this time the value for the business for a similar mix of assets, including 55 RMX plants and 20 quarries, was said to be to US$900m. Prior to this, Lafarge South Africa spent around US$170m in the late 2000s on increasing the production capacity at its integrated Lichtenburg plant and building its Randfontein grinding plant. Then in 2014, when the merger between Lafarge and Holcim was announced, Lafarge consolidated its Nigeria-based and South Africa-based operations as Lafarge Africa. It later decided to move the South African business to another Holcim subsidiary, Caricement, in 2019 to keep the business in Nigeria more profitable by reducing its debts. This transaction was valued at US$317m. At the time chair Mobolaji Balogun said that Lafarge South Africa’s operations had faced a challenging market in South Africa, with shrinking demand in an aggressively competitive sector. Afrimat is now buying Lafarge South Africa and its subsidiaries from Caricement.

Holcim isn’t alone in making an effort to sell up in South Africa. In April 2023 the Valor Econômico newspaper reported that Brazil-based InterCement was receiving offers for its remaining African-based assets in Mozambique and South Africa with a potential deal valued at around US$300m. InterCement runs Natal Portland Cement in South Africa, which operates one integrated plant and two grinding units. This follows the sale of its Egypt-based assets in January 2023 to an unnamed buyer.

PPC, the country’s largest cement producer, is staying put. However, it issued a mixed trading update this week ahead of the formal release of its annual results to 31 March 2023. Trading conditions in the interior of South Africa and Botswana were described as being ‘difficult,’ with cement sales volumes down by nearly 6% year-on-year and earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) down by 26%. Yet the group says it was able to grow its revenue. PPC’s CEO Roland van Wijnen added, “We therefore remain hopeful that the South African government will roll out its infrastructure development plans and protect the local cement market through the introduction of import tariffs to create a level playing field for domestic producers.” Dangote Cement subsidiary Sephaku Cement was more circumspect in its recent trading update but it too warned that, “deteriorating economic conditions and persistent challenges in the cement industry impacted Sephaku Cement’s financial performance to break-even levels.”

Much of the above makes for gloomy reading. As the local trade association Cement and Concrete South Africa (CCSA) has laid out to local media, the market faces the problem of having 20Mt/yr of production capacity, 12Mt/yr of demand and over 1Mt/yr of imports compounding the problem. Lobbying by local producers against imports has been a feature of the market since the early 2010s and this work continues through the efforts of the CCSA and others. However, the plea by PPC for government infrastructure spending suggests that the market faces more systemic problems. As a consequence some cement producers are trying to leave the market, while others are attempting to tough it out.

Cement producers in Bangladesh received a surprise at the start of June 2023 when the government budget proposed increasing the duty on imported clinker. The Bangladesh Cement Manufacturers Association (BCMA) reacted this week by calling for the duty on clinker to be reduced, while also calling for the same for a non-adjustable advance income tax (AIT) applied to associated imports and sales.

During a press conference, reported upon by the Financial Express newspaper and other media, BCMA president Alamgir Kabir said that the customs duty on key raw materials for the sector had previously been around 5% of the import value. However, he argued that the new suggested increased tariff was “disproportionate” because it placed the burden at 12 - 13%. He urged the government to treat the cement sector as a "priority sector" given that it was facing higher prices generally due to the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, the energy shocks from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and negative currency exchange effects.

The BCMA’s latest lobbying call may sound familiar because it follows a similar battle against import charges from late 2022. A supplementary duty was introduced in November 2022 when the National Board of Revenue (NBR) changed the way limestone was coded in response to a significant increase in imports from 2020. At the time, the price of limestone imports reportedly nearly doubled. The BCMA may have won this battle because in March 2023 the NBR withdrew its supplementary duty. It did require that importers submit to further scrutiny including an updated Import Registration Certificate and various tax related requirements.

The timing of the NBR’s decision to relax the limestone duty is telling given that the previous month or so six of the country’s seven publicly listed cement producers reported either falling profits or losses for the second half of 2022 or the year as a whole. Only LafargeHolcim Bangladesh bucked the trend with an increase year-on-year in its annual profit after tax in 2022, although it attributed this to 95% volume growth in its aggregates business.

As discussed previously a characteristic of the cement sector in Bangladesh is that the country has no domestic limestone reserves. It all has to be imported. Arusha Ahmed Khan, Shun Shing Group presented a summary of the national industry at the Global Slag Conference that took place in early June 2023 in Düsseldorf. The country has two integrated cement plants and 36 grinding mills operated by 31 companies with a total capacity of 84Mt/yr. At present around 14Mt/yr of new cement grinding production capacity is planned by UK Bangla Cement, MI Cement, Confidence Cement and Dubai Bangla with commissioning dates expected from mid-2023 to mid-2025. Khan revealed that the government switched from British to European standards in the early 2000s leading to a high level (95%) of blended cements on the market. Use of slag cements has grown as more producers commission vertical roller mills and more uptake of slag and other blended cements using secondary cementitious materials (SCM) is expected in the future.

A key vulnerability for a grinding-heavy cement sector, like the one in Bangladesh, is any burden on imports such as logistic costs, currency exchange effects and government tariffs. Sure enough each of these examples has been reported locally. The government says that its proposed higher import tariff on clinker is the first such change in a decade. Cement producers have reacted, predictably, in a negative manner. Whether the authorities go ahead with the planned increase and how well the cement sector could absorb it remains to be seen. There may never be a good time for a tax rise but the BCMA has been able to present the current period as being especially bad.

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Taiwan Cement said this week that it is aiming for cement to account for less than half of its sales by 2025. At the annual shareholders’ meeting chair Nelson Chang defended the cement sector as a core business but said that the company was expanding more into the green energy sector through its energy storage and vehicle charging lines. Chang directly linked the strategy to growing carbon taxes around the world, such as the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, where the carbon price has been occasionally close to pushing past Euro100/t since early 2022. Taiwan Cement formed a joint venture with Türkiye-based Oyak Group in 2018 that runs Cimpor in Portugal.

Table 1: Cement business share by revenue of selected cement producers. Source: Corporate annual reports.

Taiwan Cement’s plan to decrease its reliance on cement is becoming a familiar one. Holcim notably revealed in 2021 that it was growing its light building materials division. Its cement division represented 60% of sales in 2020 with concrete and aggregates making up most of the rest to 92% and the remaining 8% on other products including light building materials. This started to change with the acquisition of roofing and building envelope producer Firestone Building Products in 2021. Other similar acquisitions have followed. Holcim’s current target is to grow the Solutions & Products division to around 30% by 2025, with cement reduced to somewhere between a third and half of sales. Earlier this year Japan-based Taiheiyo Cement said it was doing a similar thing as part of its medium-term strategy to 2035. In its case cement represented 70% of its sales in 2022 but it is now aiming to reduce this to 65% by 2025 and 50% by 2035.

A common pattern for the business composition of European cement companies is a mixture of heavy building materials made up of cement, concrete and aggregate. However, not every cement company follows the same route. Some cement companies are simply parts of larger conglomerates. UltraTech Cement, for example, is mostly just a cement company. However, it is also part of Aditya Birla Group, which runs a wide range of industries including chemicals, textiles, financial services, telecoms, mining and more. Depending on how one looks at it, UltraTech Cement’s cement business ratio is large or Aditya Birla Group’s ratio is small. Siam Cement Group (SCG) in Thailand is another example of a cement producer operated by a conglomerate with other major businesses.

A different approach that some cement producers take is to mix cement production with complimentary businesses outside of heavy building materials. A good example of this is Votorantim Cement in Brazil, which manufactures cement and steel. Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) is another Brazil-based cement producer that is also well known for steel production. Adani Group in India, meanwhile, was well known for logistics, power generation and airports before it purchased Ambuja Cements and ACC from Holcim in 2022.

The driver for cement companies looking to reduce cement as a proportion of their businesses has varied between the three examples presented above. Holcim’s approach has been in response to growing European carbon costs but it also fits with a general desire to broaden its business as the company has sought to reshape itself following the merger between Lafarge and Holcim. Taiheiyo Cement’s plans also have a sustainability angle but the Japanese market has been in slow decline since the 1990s and this has been made worse by the spike in energy prices since 2022. Investing in new businesses makes sense for either of these reasons. Lastly, Taiwan Cement says it is taking action in response to carbon prices around the world. However, its proximity to many other large-scale producers in the Far East may also be a factor. Whether more companies follow suit and also start to reduce the ratio of their cement businesses remains to be seen. Yet, mounting carbon taxes and global production overcapacity look set to make more of the larger cement producers consider their options in certain places.

Heidelberg Materials North America held an official opening ceremony this week for its upgraded slag cement plant and terminal at Cape Canaveral in Florida. The US$24m project added a new roller press to the unit to increase its production capacity. In a statement Chris Ward, the president and chief executive officer of the company, said that it had made the investment to meet sustainability and resilient construction goals. Industrial Accessories Company (IAC) said in mid-2021 that it had been named as the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor for the project. It planned to install a hydraulic roller press supplied by FLSmidth. IAC also said it was providing instrumentation equipment, hoppers, bins, belt conveyors, bucket elevators and dust collectors amongst other kit and services.

Other recent US slag cement-related news stories have concerned terminals. In late August 2022 Royal White Cement said it had leased a site on the Houston Ship Channel in Houston, Texas to handle and store approximately 100,000t of multiple cementitous products such as slag, ordinary Portland cement and white Cement. In May 2022 Titan America announced plans to spend US$37m on an upgrade to its Norfolk terminal in Chesapeake, Virginia. The major improvement was to add a 70,000t storage dome, with enlarged truck and railway capacity, to allow the site to import and distribute raw materials such as fly ash, slag and aggregates. Completion on this one was scheduled for some point in 2023. Titan added that the project was similar to the addition of a 70,000t dome under construction at the time at Titan's import terminal in Tampa, Florida.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that domestic sales of iron and steel (ferrous) slags in the US amounted to 15Mt in 2022. Sales were around 20Mt in the 2000s but this fell to current levels in the 2010s as blast furnaces closed. In 2022 the USGS noted that, “domestic ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBFS) remained in limited supply because granulation cooling was known to be available at only two active US blast furnaces while, elsewhere, only one domestic plant produced pelletised slag in limited supply.” It added that the grinding of granulated blast furnace slag was only being carried out domestically by cement companies. Imports of slag were 2Mt in 2022. This is a decline from a peak of 2.6Mt in 2018 but higher than the period 2000 – 2015. The price of slag, meanwhile, hit a high of US$53/t in 2022. This is the highest price recorded by the USGS since at least 2000. It is double that of 2017.

Charles Zeynel of ZAG International noted in the June 2023 issue of Global Cement Magazine that cement producers in Florida, California, Texas, Georgia and the Carolinas are far from steel mills, so they import granulated blast furnace slag (GBFS) and other secondary cementitious materials (SCM). This certainly fits with Heidelberg Materials’ plan to upgrade its slag cement plant and terminal at Cape Canaveral. Also on the US market, Zeynel added that due to rising global demand for SCMs more of the available share of GBFS was being purchased by ‘richer’ markets such as Europe, North America and Australia. He continued that GBFS and GGBFS producers had also started increasing the price of their wares internationally. This too is apparent in the prices published by the USGS.

One final story with links to slag to note this week concerns the launch of the Alliance for Low-Carbon Cement & Concrete (ALCC) in Europe. The group brings together companies producing products or services intended to decarbonise the cement and concrete sectors. Two of the members – Ecocem and Hoffman Green Cement Technologies – are Europe-based slag cement producers. Two other members – Fortera and TerraCO₂ – are companies based in North America that are marketing and selling low-carbon SCMs.

Various start-up companies have been emerging on a regular basis in both North America and Europe with the aim of decarbonising cement and concrete in various different ways. The formation of the ALCC can be seen as part of this trend as the more successful non-traditional cement-concrete-aggregate companies establish themselves. One point that cement producers in North America are likely to be well aware of is that concrete is becoming less linked to clinker as the cost of carbon mounts and the clinker factor of cement lowers. Slag supplies may be finite but Heidelberg Materials North America’s latest investment in Florida is further acceptance that one doesn’t just need clinker to make concrete.

Read Charles Zeynel’s interview on SCM Trends in 2023 in the June 2023 issue of Global Cement Magazine

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Sinoma International Engineering was revealed this week as the winner of a contract to build a new production line at Southern Province Cement’s Jizan plant. The China-based engineering firm said that the US$330m contract was to build a full line, from limestone crushing to bagging, with an output of 5000t/day. The construction period is expected to take just over two years, suggesting a commissioning date in mid-2025 if work starts now. The project has been in the pipeline for a while with an announcement in mid-2021. It was previously reported that the new line is intended to replace the two existing production lines at the site once completed.

Other recent projects in the country include Yamama Cement’s plans to move its cement plant near Riyadh to a new location. Sinoma International Engineering was also selected as the main contractor in November 2022 for the US$220m project. The relocated line – using both old and new equipment – will have a production capacity of 10,000t/yr. Project duration was estimated at around two-and-a half years following financial contractual commitments. So the earliest this one might be completed is also mid-2025. Eastern Province Cement also started making moves to build a new major upgrade in March 2023 when it started the tendering process for a planned 10,000t/day production line at its Al Khursaniyah Plant. The intention is to replace some of the obsolete lines at the unit. The project dates back to 2015, when it was first announced.

Graph 1: Domestic cement sales and clinker exports in Saudi Arabia, 2013 – 2022. Source: Yamama Cement

The timing of these new projects is compelling given that sales by the local industry peaked in 2015. They declined in 2018 to a low of around 40Mt before stabilising at around 50Mt for the last three years. However, one trend to note is how clinker exports reached 7.1Mt in 2022, the highest figure in a decade, since export rules were relaxed in 2017. They have grown year-on-year since 2018 with the exception of 2020. Cement exports have been lower since 2013 hitting a high of 1.9Mt in 2019, although 2022 was nearly as good at 1.8Mt.

The other big news story from the local sector in 2023 was the US$37m fine that the General Authority for Competition (GAC) levied for price fixing in April 2023. 14 of the 17 main cement companies in the country were found to have broken local competition law following an investigation. Detail on specifically what happened is light, but the GAC said that it took exception to companies “controlling prices of commodities and services meant for sale by increasing, decreasing, fixing their prices or in any other manner detrimental to lawful competition.”

As ever with the Saudi construction market, government spending is expected to keep things buoyant. Although input and logistic costs have risen like everywhere else, energy costs have also risen. This, no doubt, is useful to a government planning on building a bunch of so-called ‘Giga’ projects. Local sales of cement may have dipped slightly in 2022 but building all these big new projects will require plenty of cement. A report by the SICO Bank in January 2023 forecast that local cement demand was expected to remain ‘flat’ in 2023 but that it would grow by 5% year-on-year in 2024. Interestingly, it added that demand from the tourism and exhibition sector would also fuel demand in the run-up to 2030 as various schemes connected to the ‘Giga’ projects reached fruition.

Each of the three projects detailed above are intended to replace existing capacity. This suggests that none of these companies expect the market to grow significantly anytime soon. These cement producers are likely to be focusing on improving efficiencies from their existing market share. Alongside this, exports of cement and clinker have grown, giving combined local and export sales that are similar to the market peak in 2015. Efficiency savings and adapting to a mature market appear to be the way forward for Saudi cement producers in the near-term.