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Update on Ukraine, February 2022
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
23 February 2022
International tensions reached a new high this week with Russia’s formal recognition of the breakaway Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine and its decision to deploy troops accordingly. However, what of the local cement industry in Ukraine going into the current crisis?
Ukrcement, the Ukrainian Cement Association, says that its members reported a record 11Mt of cement production in 2021. Clinker production totalled 8.11Mt during the same period. The cement figure is close to Ukrcement’s forecast in the autumn of 2021 of 11.5Mt, a rise of 17% year-on-year from 9Mt in 2020. At that time association head Pavlo Kachur added that the local cement industry operated at 66% capacity utilisation in the first nine months of 2021.
The big industry story locally was the start of tariffs on cement imports from Turkey that was announced in September 2021. After much complaining by local producers and an investigation the year before in 2020 the Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade (ICIT) introduced anti-dumping duties of 33 - 51% on cement imports from Turkey for five years. Other than this the usual energy preoccupations have been present in Ukraine. In an interview with Interfax in November 2021, Pavlo Kachur expressed alarm that the price of coal had tripled from the start of 2021 to August 2021. At the same time he explained that the biggest driver of cement consumption was infrastructure projects.
CRH, the largest producer locally, rebranded its subsidiary as Cemark in November 2021 with the intention to start shipping cement bags with the new marking from January 2022. It operates three integrated plants at Mykolaiv, Podilsky and Odessa. It reported that its local operating profit grew year-on-year in 2020, despite a “challenging pricing environment” as cost savings initiatives and lower fuel and logistics costs resulted in improved performance. In September 2021 CRH said that sales were up due to growing cement sales volumes resulting from market demand. Although once again it complained about competitive pricing forcing it to lower its prices. Despite this though lower maintenance costs and cost controls had boosted its operating profit.
Buzzi Unicem runs two integrated cement plants in Ukraine, Volyn and Yugcement, as well as terminals at Kiev and Odessa through its Dyckerhoff Ukraine subsidiary. In 2021 it noted recovery in the construction sector, helped by government stimulus and the introduction of tariffs on imports from Turkey. It said that prices fell in the first half of the year before recovering in the second half. Ready-mixed concrete output showed more growth. Dyckerhoff Ukraine’s net sales rose by 9.4% year-on-year to Euro127m in 2021 even despite negative currency exchange effects.
As for the other producers, NEQSOL Holding Ukraine filed an application to the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) in October 2021 to acquire a stake in Ivano-Frankivskcement. Azerbaijan-based NEQSOL Holding also operates the Norm Cement plant near Baku in Azerbaijan. HeidelbergCement used to operate in Ukraine, including the Amvrosiyivka Plant in the contested part of Donetsk region, but it sold up in 2019 to local investors. Its two former integrated plants now operate under the Kryvyi Rig Cement brand. Finally, Russia-based Eurocement runs two plants in Ukraine, at Balakleya in Kharkiv region and Kramatorsk in Donetsk region, under its Balcem subsidiary, which formed in 2019. However the status of the second plant is currently uncertain. Balcem said that the Balakleya plant resumed full cycle production in March 2021 when it restarted kiln two. Kiln one was restarted in June 2021 after a down period since 2008. The plant currently has a production capacity of around 1Mt/yr.
Ukrcement’s Pavlo Kachur said that the cement market in Ukraine was experiencing a positive period in November 2021. Whether this continues is very much in the balance given events in the east of the country. The wider implications for cement producers in the rest of Europe and Russia are the fallout from the economic warfare between both sides. A number of countries have started to react to Russia’s actions with the US, European Union, UK, Japan and Australia announcing economic sanctions and Germany halting approval of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. However, Russia supplies a significant share of Europe’s gas supply. All of this could disrupt energy supplies and force input costs up. This has already been reflected in higher oil prices.
Meanwhile, one aspect of the current situation to watch is how multinational cement producers with a presence in Russia will cope. Moving money in or out of the country is likely to become harder. HeidelbergCement told Reuters this week that it did not expect any major impact on its Russian operations, even if the conflict escalated. Its three cement plants supply local markets and do not export outside of Russia, it added. Other companies straddling the potential sanctions divide include Holcim, Buzzi Unicem and Eurocement.
The crisis continues.
Growing Portland limestone cement production in the US
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
16 February 2022
Argos USA announced this week that its integrated Roberta plant in Alabama is set to produce 100% Portland limestone cement (PLC) by June 2022. As part of the transition three of its terminals in North Carolina will also switch over at the same time. The company also expects that all of its plants will convert to PLC in 2023. Cement sites including Newberry in Florida, Harleyville in South Carolina and Martinsburg in West Virginia are already producing PLC.
The change by Argos marks the latest example in an ongoing trend of US-based cement companies moving entire plants to PLC production. In September 2021 LafargeHolcim US said that its integrated Midlothian plant in Texas was preparing to convert to full PLC production and that it would be the first plant in the US to do so. It later confirmed that the plant had done so by the end of 2021. In October 2021 GCC said that its Trident Plant in Montana would fully move to PLC in early 2022. Then in November 2021 Titan America said that its Pennsuco cement plant in Florida would make the change possibly by 2023. Moving into 2022 brought the news that LafargeHolcim US’ Ste. Genevieve plant in Missouri and its Alpena plant in Michigan had each transitioned to PLC production. Lehigh Hanson then rounded up the bunch earlier this month, at the start of February 2022, when it announced that a PLC was the primary product now coming out of its Mason City plant in Iowa. It even invited a US Member of Congress to celebrate!
The current expansionist phase of PLC usage in the US dates back to late 2020 when the Portland Cement Association (PCA) launched a dedicated website to promote the use of the blended cement by discussing its applications and benefits. It then released a new environmental product declaration in March 2021 and PLC received a mention in the PCA’s Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality when it was released a year later in October 2021. Lots of work went into PLC prior to 2020 though, both by the PCA and others. The first commercial production of PLC in the US started in 2005 and PLC gained its own blended cement specification in 2012. Notably, the PCA has been tracking the state acceptance of PLC by the Department of Transportation and it grew markedly during the 2010s.
The US is playing catch-up with PLC. In Europe its usage dates back to the 1960s. Cembureau, the European Cement Association, reported usage of around 30% in 2004. More recently in 2020, the VDZ, the German Cement Association, reported a similar figure domestically with the proportion of blended cement shipments including limestone, shale and multiple additives at 31.6%. In the US it is hard to gauge the scale of the current move towards PLC by producers, due to limited publicly available data. A PCA survey reported PLC production of 0.89Mt in 2016. If all the plants mentioned above convert fully to PLC and maintain their rated production capacity that would be something like 14Mt/yr of PLC in 2023 or 11% of the US’s total cement capacity. For comparison, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reported total shipments of all blended cements at 3.3Mt in 2020 and a total of 5.4Mt for the first 11 months of 2021. Plus, remember that PLC is just one blended cement among others, like those that use slag or fly ash.
Recent developments show that a large change is coming towards the US cement market in the update of blended cements. It’s been a long time coming but the last six months have seen brisk increases in PLC production at scale. The exact data is not available but one might expect something around triple the current number of production plants making PLC if the US market heads towards European levels. This rough estimate doesn’t take into account existing partial PLC production levels. At the same time the US cement sector should see a fall in its emissions due to PLC’s 10% reduction in CO2 emissions compared to ordinary Portland cement
Update on Spain, February 2022
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
09 February 2022
The data on cement consumption for 2021 in Spain is out this week and it looks promising. As the national cement association Oficemen explained, last year was the sector’s best for over a decade, nearly reaching 15Mt consumption and exceeding the figure in 2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic started. Oficemen also singled out particular strong performance in December 2021. It now expects this growth trend to continue into 2022 with a forecast of 5% to 15.6Mt predicted based on both domestic and infrastructure segments.
Graph 1: Cement consumption in Spain, 2012 – 2021. Source: Oficemen.
The Spanish cement industry reached a peak consumption of over 50Mt in the late 2000s before hitting a near-50 year low in the 2010s in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. The market then started to recover in the second half of the 2010s until Covid-19 came along. A report on the Spanish cement market to the start of 2021 that lays out the situation can be found in the February 2021 issue of Global Cement Magazine. The larger news stories since then have been Votorantim Cimentos’ growth in the market through its acquisitions of FYM and Cementos Balboa, and Çimsa Çimento’s final completion of its deal to buy the Buñol white cement plant from Cemex. Each of these stories involve an integrated cement plant changing ownership.
Looking back at Oficemen’s summary describing 2012 depicts a much different dwindling market. However, one commonality it shares with the association’s roundup for 2021 is that it complains about the country’s disadvantage in electricity costs compared to its neighbours. Back in 2012 this was framed as holding back exports. As Oficemen noted at the time it exported 5.9Mt of cement in 2012, less than half the 13Mt it exported in 1983. Jump forward to 2021 and exports are now 6.8Mt. Energy is still a key issue though. Now Oficemen’s president, José Manuel Cascajero Rodríguez, says that the sector’s production costs have increased by 25% since the latest round of electricity price rises began. He then compares the cost of energy intensive industry in Spain unfavourably against France and Germany and calls for a structural change in the Spanish electricity market to make prices more predictable. Cement producers elsewhere in Europe and beyond may share Oficemen’s concerns regard unpredictable energy prices over the last six months but electricity has been a particular issue for Spain for a long time. To take one recent local example, in November 2021 Cementos Cosmos said it was planning to scale down the production of clinker at its Córdoba cement plant as a result of the high cost of electricity.
The other issue that gets raised in Oficemen’s 2021 summary is competition from cement importers outside the European Union (EU) and the necessity of a border carbon adjustment mechanism (CBAM) to take in account carbon taxation for producers within Europe. To jump back a bit, back in May 2021 the EU Emissions trading Scheme (ETS) reached Euro50/t. Then in December 2021 Cembureau, the European cement association, published a calculation predicting that if the EU ETS CO2 cost made it to Euro90/t then this could represent 12 - 15% of the production costs of cement producers. Well, as readers will have guessed, the EU ETS beat Euro90/t on 2 February 2022 and then rose to Euro96.7/t on 7 February 2022. Answers in an email for when readers think the EU ETS price will top Euro100/t.
All of the above feeds neatly into the week’s other big Spanish news story: Cemex and Synhelion have successfully produced clinker from concentrated solar radiation at a pilot unit at the Very High Concentration Solar Tower of IMDEA Energy near Madrid. It’s early days yet as the process needs to be scaled up but, make no mistake, this is a big story. An interview with the team behind Cemex and Synhelion’s solar concentration project can be found in the December 2020 issue of Global Cement Magazine for more information. The SOLPART (Solar-Heated Reactors for Industrials Production of Reactive Particulates) project in France did similar research a few years ago but it didn’t reach the 1500°C target required to reach the sintering phase where clumps of clinker form. US-based Heliogen has been trying to industrialise concentrated solar energy but not much has been heard about its cement-industry ambitions since it said it reached temperatures of about 1000°C in 2019.
The relevance of an eventual full-scale concentrated solar unit for the entire production line or just the preheater and/or calciner at a cement plant in Spain makes considerable sense. At a stroke energy costs are reduced, diverted to a renewable source and any desired CO2 capture becomes, in theory, easier and cheaper. Cemex said in the interview with Global Cement Magazine that the tentative next step would be a pilot unit at a cement plant, although, candidate plants could be in the US or Mexico, as well as Spain. Another side of the drive to cut energy and carbon costs can also be seen in a couple of photovoltaic solar projects supplying cement plants that were announced in 2021 for Spanish plants run by Cemex and Cementos Cosmos.
We leave the Spanish cement sector in a growth phase but with plenty of challenges ahead, not least from electricity costs and the mounting cost of carbon. Yet in common with other countries in Europe the industry faces a high-wire balancing act between staying economically viable and inching towards net zero. It’s conceivable that an industrial scale concentrated solar unit at a cement plant in Spain by 2030 might steady the wobbles along the way.
Update on Russia, February 2022
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
02 February 2022
Russia made imports easier last week. At the end of January 2022 an order from Rosstandart, the national standisation agency, relaxed inspection controls allowing for simpler imports from countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Previously each such batch required a 28 day inspection period. This has now been dropped to encourage more imports of cement. Deputy Industry and Trade Minister Viktor Yevtukhov explained the reasoning behind the measure to InterFax, “In order to avoid problems in the domestic Russian cement market in the future, it is necessary to spur competition. It will balance the prices for this basic building material and will restrain their growth in case of such risks.”
Some idea of the situation facing the Russian cement market at the moment can be gleaned from market data supplied by CM Pro. Production rose by 7% year-on-year to 56.4Mt in the 11 months to November 2021. Imports rose by 26% to 1.6Mt at the same time. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has attributed this to a construction boom created by growth in both government-funded infrastructure projects and domestic housing. It also noted a local shortage and price increases in the Central Federal District in the autumn of 2021, although it said it redistributed cement from other regions to remedy the situation. This imbalance in the country’s main cement producing and consuming region, including Moscow, can also be seen in the figures. Production was about 2Mt below consumption in this area in 2019 and 2020. Yet so far, to November 2021, this gap grew to 2.7Mt. At the same time the price of cement reportedly jumped by 20% from November 2020 to December 2021.
Graph 1: Cement production in Russia, 2015 – 2021. Source: CM Pro and estimate from Global Cement.
It has been reported that the Ministry of Industry and Trade has also been wondering publicly why a study conducted in 2021 found that the national cement sector had an apparent operating capacity of 65Mt/yr compared to a total production capacity of 105Mt/yr, including mothballed and inactive plants and production lines. In other words the sector has been operating at a 62% production utilisation rate and the government is trying to coax it higher by opening up imports. And just to make sure that there was no confusion on the matter, Yevtukhov added, “I am sure that if the domestic producers will cope with the task of increasing the real volume of cement production and will not allow prices for their products to increase above the rate of inflation, the market will self-regulate, and additional imports of cement to Russia (which are traditionally small) will not be needed."
Given the country’s large size, imports seem to be mainly a threat to producers in the big population centres around Moscow and the Volga with good international transport links. Producers appear to have received and understood the message from the government as they have pledged to increase real operating capacity by 3 – 5Mt. The bear in the room for both Russian and European cement producers though is what happens in Ukraine in 2022. With North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members threatening economic sanctions and Russia supplying a significant share of Europe’s gas supply, any progression from the current rhetoric could cause discomfort to markets in both Russia and Europe. Turkish cement exporters, manufacturing in a NATO member country and hoping to take advantage of increased exports to Russia, could be in a particular bind if events heat up. All of this indicates that Smikom picked an interesting time to buy Russia’s largest cement producer, Eurocement, back in mid-2021. There’s an ongoing construction boom but also risks aplenty.
With apposite timing, LafargeHolcim Russia announced this week that it was going to reopen its integrated Voskresensk cement plant near Moscow. The unit was originally stopped in 2016. Now it plans to spend Euro23m on restarting the plant and building a dry construction mix unit at the site. Who says big government doesn’t work?
Update on Uzbekistan, January 2022
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
26 January 2022
An acquisition in Uzbekistan by Russia-based Akkerman Cement this week highlights resurgence in the local market.
The subsidiary of USM has just purchased a majority stake in Akhangarancement with the help of financing from Gazprombank. No value for the acquisition has been disclosed. However, the move follows the sale of Russia-based Eurocement to Smikom in early 2021. Then in June 2021 Eurocement sold off its majority stake in Akhangarancement to Cyprus-based Lamanka Enterprises for US$53m. Now, as part of the sale to Akkerman Cement, the start of a new 2.5Mt/yr dry process production line at Akhangarancement in 2021 has also been highlighted. As for Akkerman Cement’s interest in become a multinational cement producer, it said that, “The investment in Akhangarancement, like all USM investments in Uzbekistan, is primarily aimed at the development of this country, the small homeland of Alisher Usmanov, the main shareholder of USM.”
Aside from any potential sentimental yearnings from a billionaire, the Akhangarancement deal follows a few developments in the Uzbek market in recent months. At the start of January 2022 the state assets management agency UzAssets agreed to sell the government’s majority stake in Qizilqumcement for US$174m to United Cement Group (UCG). This was a significant move locally given the size of UCG in the Central Asian states. UCG operates two integrated plants and one grinding unit in Uzbekistan. The acquisition of Qizilqumcement’s 3.4Mt/yr plant now makes UCG the largest cement company by production capacity in the country. It has also been building a new production line, like Akhangarancement, with commissioning last reported as scheduled as sometime in 2022.
Finally, the other recent development in Uzbekistan occurred in December 2021 when China-based Anhui Conch announced that it had started building a new 2.5Mt/yr cement plant in the Akhangaran district in Tashkent. The project has a price tag of US$200m.
Graph 1: Cement production in Uzbekistan, 2016 – 2020. Source: State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics.
In early 2021 the government suspended tariffs on cement imports and this was then later extended into late 2022. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev says he signed the decree to keep house prices low. Subsequently, imports grew by 26% year-on-year to 2.2Mt in the first nine months of 2021. The main importers were Kazakhstan (44%), Tajikistan (25%) and Kyrgyzstan (25%). Graph 1 above shows recent annual production trends over the last five years. So far in 2021, to September 2021, overall domestic cement production rose by 17% to 9.08Mt. In 2020 annual production was about the same as the country’s production capacity of 10.3Mt/yr.
The mixture of Russian and Chinese companies involved with the recent plant acquisitions and new projects chimes with the general position of the Uzbek economy and its geographical position between the larger economies of Russia and China. For example, January 2022 data from the Uzbek State Statistics Committee showed that bilateral trade with Russia overtook that with China in 2021 for the first time since 2014. The two countries have had similar trade turnover with Uzbekistan over this period. Since the mid-2010s the national economy has liberalised and investment by foreign companies into industries like cement reflects this. The sale of Qizilqumcement also shows the further movement of state assets into private ownership. With apparent production utilisation closing to 100% and the government encouraging imports, it’s a good time to be a cement producer in Uzbekistan. Accordingly, foreign cement companies are investing.