Analysis

Making predictions is a mug’s game. Mug, if you don’t know already, is British slang for a fool. Although you can also drink tea or coffee out of a mug. Newspapers and magazines love predictions at this time of year and Global Cement is no exception. But before we give you our predictions, let’s see how a real expert got on 36 years ago. The science fiction author Isaac Asimov, of Three Laws of Robotics fame, had a go in 1983 when he was asked by the Toronto Star newspaper to try and guess the state of the world in 2019. You can read his original article here.

First up for a construction audience is where the great writer of fiction set in space gets it wrong: space. Asimov thought we’d be on the moon ‘in force’ by 2019, building a mining station to process minerals to make materials such as a concrete, metals, ceramics and glass. Other projects would include satellite solar farms in low earth orbit, observatories, factories and serious planning towards an off-earth settlement. ‘Mooncrete’ or ‘lunarcrete’ is definitely a theoretical thing that has received academic thought since the mid-1980s. We’re guessing that CO₂ emissions for cement and concrete would be less of a problem on the moon! Observatories and probes like the Hubble Space Telescope satellite have enriched astronomy. Factories and extra-terrestrial settlements appear another 36 years away.

As for the rest of the predictions, Asimov starts off with an immediate misstep for us smug citizens of 2019 with a riff on a potential nuclear confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union invalidating everything else he was about to say. Past this opening fumble though he’s not bad. He immediately identifies computers as the source of coming change on the scale of the industrial revolution as they enable some human jobs to be replaced and change the nature of others. Next up he identifies pollution and overpopulation as concerns for society before heading on to the importance of trans-national organisations to tackle these issues. He’s generally on trend although there are plenty of holes. For example, he doesn’t foresee networking effects such as a social media and the political implications of enhanced connectivity.

So, having seen how well a noted science fiction author got on, our first forecast is not to trust our predictions. However, if you really want to hear our thoughts, read on.

Chinese cement companies continue to build plants overseas
The background to this is that Song Zhiping, the former chairman of China National Building Material (CNBM) said in late 2017 that the company was planning to build 100 new plants in 50 countries by 2021. Lots of Chinese companies are backing projects in Central Asia and Africa. Many of these are joint ventures. The question arises as to what will happen if local investors default on their loan repayments…

Indian market heats up
Many of the major cement producers are betting on India in 2019 to hold their finances together. The Cement Manufacturers Association of India has forecast growth of 10% in the 2019 financial year to the end of March 2019, the fastest growth in the sector since it slowed down in 2011. A pledge by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to cut the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on cement to 18% from 28% can only help the market.

A tale of two Africas
By the demographics, investing in Africa should be a no-brainer for cement companies as countries develop. However, northern Africa is rapidly turning into an export market as capacity outstrips local demand. Sub-Saharan Africa is decidedly mixed as the coastal regions potentially get swamped by foreign clinker imports and capacity investments further inland can be risky. The current political instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo is one example of this. Another, the collapse of Kenya’s ARM Cement in mid-2018 offers a warning to investors of what can happen when things go wrong. Producers like Ngieria’s Dangote Cement are waiting in the wings to snap up a bargain. Expect more of the same in 2019.

Acquisitions to continue in Brazil
After years of poor performance the acquisitions and divestments in the cement industry finally started in Brazil in 2018. A new ‘pro-business’ president and a growing economy suggests that this trend should continue in 2019.

European cement producers test how fast legislators are prepared to meet climate commitments
European cement associations were warning in 2018 that the local industry faces issues balancing competiveness versus tightening climate legislation. In October 2018 three plants – two in Spain and one in Sweden – were targeted for closure proving that the associations were not kidding. More difficult choices are likely to follow in 2019.

If any readers have their own industry forecasts for 2019 let us know by emailing This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. If we get enough we’ll run a recap at the end of the year to let everyone know how they got on.

Happy New Year from Global Cement!

Previously we’ve finished the year by recapping the major news stories from an editorial perspective. If you’re interested in that approach we suggest you read the trends articles in the December 2018 issue of Global Cement Magazine. Here on the website though we’ve decided to run it by readership figures. So, instead of suggesting what we think you should be interested in, we’re flagging up what you are actually stimulated by. Fortunately, unlike the search engines, we don’t run the kind of content to make one lose faith in humanity. Nevertheless though there are some interesting observations to make.

Top 5 country tags on Global Cement website in 2018

5. Egypt
4. Vietnam
3. Pakistan
2. Philippines
1. India

Firstly, as the list of country tags shows the emphasis from readers is very much on developing economies with strong cement industries. India is the second biggest cement producing country in the world and the others are all major manufacturers in their regions. The Philippines is riding an infrastructure boom, Pakistan is a major exporter of cement and has its own infrastructure growth from Chinese investment, Vietnam is another major exporter and Egypt is the largest producer in Africa. Incidentally, Egypt opened a 13Mt/yr cement plant at Beni Suef with six production lines in 2018. These are places where the action is at in the cement industry.

Top 10 news stories on Global Cement website in 2018

10. Big Boss Cement to launch in the Philippines
9. Dalmia Bharat set to buy Kalyanpur Cement
8. Wonder Cement plant launched in Maharashtra
7. LafargeHolcim to sell US$1.7bn of assets after poor first half
6. Birla Corporation confirms plans to build new cement plant at Mukutban
5. ACC in talks to buy remaining cement business from Jaiprakash Associates
4. LafargeHolcim to close Paris headquarters
3. Global Cement & Concrete Association launches
2. ThyssenKrupp to build new cement plant for LafargeHolcim in Morocco
1. Brisk cement trade reported at Ethiopian-Eritrean border

As for the news stories there are several general trends to note. Firstly, the machinations of the Indian producers fill up four of the top ten positions. We’ve noted the size of the industry but it is also worth remembering the common use of English in that country. Secondly, the world’s largest multinational cement producer, LafargeHolcim receives three mentions. Again, no surprise here. We have shades of the company realigning itself after poor financial results and pointing at developing countries. The closure of the former Lafarge headquarters in Paris ties into the former and strikes a nostalgic note following the merger between Lafarge and Holcim in 2015.

From here there’s one story that we included in our roundup for 2018, the formation of the Global Cement & Concrete Association (GCCA). Readers of the BBC News website would have spotted the GCCA’s head Benjamin Sporton popping up in a feature on cement industry carbon emissions. He’s not long been in the job but this is exactly the kind of advocacy the association should be doing on behalf of the industry.

As for the top news story for 2018, it’s not what we’d have chosen in a round-up, but it sums up the importance of cement to people’s lives. It’s a commodity and where people build things they need it. Normalise relations between bordering countries and cement will flow if it can. Now that’s a goodwill story to end the year.

Enjoy the Christmas and New Year break if you have one.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 2 January 2019

Research from the Global Carbon Budget (GCB) this week forecasts that fossil CO₂ emissions from the Indian cement industry will rise by 13.4% in 2018. This is in stark contrast to the smooth mood music from the Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) last week, which stated that the local industry was on track to meet its commitments towards decarbonisation. So what’s going on?

The situation is akin to the fable about the blind men and the elephant. Both the GCB and the CSI are approaching the emissions of the Indian cement industry from different directions. The GCB is using available data (including data from the CSI) to try and estimate what the CO₂ emissions are. It takes cement production data using a method adapted from a paper published by Robbie M Andrew of Norway’s CICERO Center for International Climate Research in 2018 and then it takes into account the types of cement being produced and the clinker factor. This is then converted into an estimated clinker production figure and this is then converted into a CO₂ figure.

However, the CSI meanwhile actually has direct data from its local members. At the moment these include ACC, Ambuja Cements, CRH, Dalmia Cement (Bharat), HeidelbergCement, Orient Cement, Shree Cement, UltraTech and Votorantim Cimentos. As part of the Getting the Numbers Right (GNR) database it collects production and sustainability related data from its members. However, for reasons of competition, it maintains a year gap before it reports its data. This means that the GCB can report its estimate ahead of the CSI data.

There is nothing to stop the CSI reporting its progress against its targets though. And this is exactly what it has done in India with the recent document outlining progress towards the 2030 targets from the low carbon technology roadmap (LCTR). The headline CSI metric was direct CO₂ emission intensity. According to the CSI, this has fallen by 32kgCO₂/t cement to 588kgCO₂/t cement in 2017 mainly due to an increased uptake of alternative fuel and blended cement production, as well as a reduction in the clinker factor. This is bang on target with its aim of hitting 320kgCO₂/t in 2050 (around 560 kgCO₂/t in 2020, assuming a linear decrease).

The problem is that cement production growth in India suddenly sped up in 2018. Global Cement estimates that India’s cement production is set to rise by 7% year-on-year to 296Mt in 2018 from 280Mt in 2017. Data from the Ministry of Commerce & Industry shows that cement production rose by nearly 16% year-on-year to 244Mt in the first nine months of 2018 from 211Mt in the same period in 2017. Along these lines the Cement Manufacturers Association of India has forecast growth of 10% in the 2019 financial year to the end of March 2019. It reckons that this is the fastest growth in the sector since the industry slowed down in 2011.

India’s per capita cement consumption is low (222kg/capita) and its urban population is also low (around 30%). That’s a lot of cement that’s going to be used as it shifts to developed global rates and already it’s the globe’s second biggest cement market. The CSI was right to get in there eight years ago. Yet, the question now is can CO₂ emissions decrease whilst the market grows? Research in the US suggests that the real reason for emission drops in the 2010s was the economic recession, not policy shifts or changes in the energy mix. If that holds in India then the cement industry will have a hard time reducing its carbon footprint irrespective of the work the CSI has done.

Fascinating information came out of LafargeHolcim last week as part of its Capital Markets Day 2018. The building materials company said it is expecting sales growth to slow in 2019 but earnings to grow. Jan Jenisch, the chief executive officer (CEO), said that the group was ‘aggressively’ moving forward in aggregates and ready-mix concrete. Alongside this, its recent divestment of its Indonesian operations was declared a ‘major’ milestone in focusing its portfolio and cutting down on debt.

Graph 1: LafargeHolcim’s major product lines by sales (%), 2015 – 2017. Source: Company reports.

Graph 1, above, gives a good idea of how LafargeHolcim has been changing its business. Cement sales as a percentage of total sales have been cut to 60% in 2017 from 67% in 2015. Ready-mix concrete and other sales (including asphalt) have risen to 26% from 19%. Aggregate sales have stayed at around 14%. If the world is making too much cement then LafargeHolcim is switching to concrete and balancing out its supply chain. Naturally, this was backed up in one of its investor presentations showing a more even split in the world building materials market between cement, concrete and aggregates. This fits with Jenisch’s background as the former head of Sika. That company manufactures a wide range of specialty chemicals for the construction and automotive industries.

That shift in focus could also be seen at the inaugural Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) event in late November 2018 where concrete was very much the centre of attention from a sustainability angle. The main companies involved with the GCCA are vertically integrated ones and, by switching its product balance, LafargeHolcim seems to be moving in the same direction. In a sense this is a continuation of the synergy-seeking that was promised when Lafarge and Holcim merged in 2015.

Graph 2: Forecast cement demand growth in LafargeHolcim markets. Source: LafargeHolcim investor presentation 2018.

The other interesting question for LafargeHolcim is where next for growth? The graphic above shows a number of promising areas, including India and east Sub-Saharan Africa. Also, note the slowdown forecast for China. That renewed faith in India is timely this week given the expectation by the Indian Cement Manufacturers Association that cement demand growth in the country will rise by at least 10% in the current financial year to March 2019. If the momentum holds up after a strong first half then it will mark the fastest increase for the region since the market slowed down in 2011. LafargeHolcim doesn’t appear to be on course to grow significantly in India anytime soon but it has major ‘skin in the game’ in a promising market.

Another indication of the vibrancy of the Indian market also came this week from the Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) with the results of a status review from its low carbon technology roadmap (LCTR). The results were fairly good for such a large industry, with falling CO₂ emissions intensity, growing co-processing rates and a decreasing clinker factor. This report carried a sad note given that the work that the CSI does will be taken over by the GCCA in January 2019. However, if this is the last we’re going to hear from the CSI, then they’ve left on a high note.

Lastly, leafing through old financial reports may not be everybody’s idea of a good time but it does let one see how LafargeHolcim’s product mix has changed. It also gives one time to catch up with old faces. Like Bruno Lafont and Eric Olsen. Once again those two former executives popped up in the latest twist of the on going Lafarge Syria legal case as a group of Yazidi women have applied to become ‘civil parties’ in the case. Whether the war crimes inflicted upon the Yazidis can be pinned on Lafarge Syria remains to be seen. Yet, for all of the LafargeHolcim’s business reorganisation, its predecessor’s conduct in Syria continues to make headlines. However much progress the company makes in turning around its fortunes, if it can be, this will continue to overshadow everything. Once a line is drawn under the affair then LafargeHolcim can move on properly.

Chief executives from over 30 companies attended the Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) inaugural event last week in London. Its first president Albert Manifold, the chief executive officer (CEO) of CRH, laid out the line by saying that, “For the first time we have a global advocacy body.” He followed this up by emphasising that ‘our product’ is the most used man-made product in the world. Just like the Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI), the body the GCCA is partly-replacing, it is a CEO-led organisation. The target is very much about giving a global voice to the cement and concrete industries and the vertically integrated companies that produce these products.

Along with the head of CRH, the leaders of LafargeHolcim, HeidelbergCement, CNBM, Votorantim, Buzzi Unicem and Eurocement, amongst others, were all on the attendance list too. That kind of representation gave the event a charged air and a real sense of intent. At present the association says it represents 35% of global cement production and its aim is to reach 50%. That compares to the 30% base that the CSI had.

Representatives from some major cement associations were also present, including Europe’s Cembureau, the Federación Interamericana del Cemento (FICEM), the Canadian Cement Association and the VDZ. The only thing stopping the US Portland Cement Association being there was reportedly the Thanksgiving holiday. Although not comprehensive, that kind of representation suggests serious interest from the regional cement associations. The word from the GCCA CEO Benjamin Sporton was that the GCCA is here to provide a global level of coordination to the advocacy and sustainability side of the industry dealing with global organisations like the United Nations (UN), development banks, other associations and non-government organisations (NGOs).

How this will work in practice has yet to be seen, but at the very least, the GCCA can take over the work of the CSI and run with it. The word from the attendees we spoke to was uniformly positive for the association. It was seen as a long-overdue move to finally give the industry some sort of uniform voice at a global scale. In this sense it is catching up with similar bodies in industries like wood and steel. One benefit from moving from the CSI to a full advocacy organisation is that the industry can actually talk about the good things it does rather than being limited to sustainability and environmental data reporting. It seems like a small change in focus but it’s a big shift in mind-set.

A cynic might suggest that the exercise is one of a dirty industry trying to wrest the Overton window, or window of public discourse, back from legislators facing mounting environmental pressure. The latest UN Emissions Gap Report for 2018, for example, reported this week that CO₂ emissions rose in 2017 after four consecutive years of decline. This is the latest environmental report in a long line pointing out bad news. Yet, the GCCA’s unwritten mantra, that concrete improves lives, is sound. Somebody or something needs to link it all up. That somebody might just be the GCCA.

A review of the inaugural annual general meeting and symposium of the GCCA will be published in a forthcoming issue of Global Cement Magazine.