Analysis

Exports are the theme this week with news that the value of Turkey’s cement exports fell by 26% year-on-year in April 2020. Reporting from the Trend News Agency showed that the export market has been stable so far for the year to date, with some countries, like Kazakhstan, increasing exports and others, like France, decreasing exports. However the change in April may mark the start of a new trend.

As Tamer Saka, the chairman of the Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÇMB), said earlier in the year, his country is one of biggest cement exporters in the world and among its most important markets are the US, Israel, Ghana and Ivory Coast. To look at one of these countries, United States Geology Survey (USGS) data shows that cement and clinker imports from Turkey to the US grew by 26% year-on-year to 1Mt for the first quarter of 2020 but that exports fell by 24% year-on-year to 0.11Mt in March 2020. Each of these countries is being affected in different ways by the coronavirus pandemic and at different times. Overall though, Saka’s and the TÇMB’s forecast in February 2020 that exports would rise by 15% year-on-year in 2020 is looking decidedly shaky. Any knock to the export market in Turkey is particularly unwanted given the poor state of the Turkish economy at the moment.

What would be useful to know here is how other major cement exporters are coping with the global situation. Data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics shows that Pakistan’s cement exports dropped by 31% year-on-year to 0.36Mt in April 2020. Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) for the same month tells a similar story. Its data shows a 57% drop in exports to 0.25Mt in April 2020, with a bigger share lost by plants in the north of the country than those in the south.

The other country to note is Vietnam. Here, data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs shows that cement exports fell by 9.7% year-on-year to 7.73Mt in the first quarter of 2020. This follows the announcement by Vietnam Cement Association (VCA) chair Nguyễn Quang Cung in May 2020 that all cement plant projects scheduled to begin in 2020 would be suspended. Luckily those currently being built avoided this fate. This has included a new line at Thanh Thang Group Cement’s integrated Bong Lang cement plant, which Germany’s Loesche has just sent a pair of clinker mills to this week.

These changes from the major cement exporters are bad for their host countries but the other side of the chain is how their destinations are affected. For example, Australia’s clinker imports nearly doubled between 2010 – 2011 and 2018 – 2019 to 4.1Mt. This compares to local clinker production of 5.6Mt in 2018 – 2019, according to the Cement Industry Federation and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. With this in mind, this week saw the resolution to a legal dispute between Wagners Holdings and Boral over a cement supply contract. Boral found a cheaper source of cement from Cement Australia in early 2019 and the two parties argued over their contract. This dispute may have nothing to do with foreign import levels but Wagners Holdings, Boral and Cement Australia all operate standalone clinker grinding plants and will all be subject to general market pricing trends. Higher international clinker levels may add pressure to pricing issues surrounding cement supply contracts in Australia and elsewhere.

Finally, cement trade flows aren’t the only commodity that has been affected by coronavirus disruption. The mass movement of workers home and then back to work is expected to complicate India’s return to business, as discussed in last week’s column. In this context it’s pleasing to come across one sign of normality. Local press in Hubei, China reported this week that workers from Huaxin Cement finally flew back to Uzbekistan. They were originally meant to commission a new plant in March 2020 but became stranded at home when they returned for the Chinese New Year. Commissioning of the plant is now planned for later in June 2020.

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Under the current circumstances it’s not surprising to see how much Indian cement production fell in April 2020. Like many other countries, its lockdown measures to combat the coronavirus outbreak suppressed industrial output. Yet seeing an 86% year-on-year fall in the world’s second largest producer is shocking. Cement production declined to 4.1Mt from 29.2Mt. Further data shows, as part of the Indian government’s eight core industries, that steel and cement production suffered the most. Coal, crude oil, natural gas, petroleum refinery products, fertilisers and electricity generation all fell by far less.

Graph 1: Change in Indian cement production year-on-year (%). Source: Office of the Economic Adviser.

By comparison in China monthly cement output only fell around 30% at the peak of its outbreak. The difference is that China implemented a graduated lockdown nationally, with the toughest measures applied in Wuhan, the place the outbreak was first identified. As we reported in April 2020 demand for cement in Wuhan had fallen by around 80% at the time its lockdown ended. Production and demand are different, but India’s experience feels similar except that it’s on a national scale. The last time the country had a dip in cement production recently was in late 2016 when the government introduced its demonetisation measures and dented cement production growth rate (and national productivity) in the process.

UltraTech Cement, Orient Cement, Ambuja Cement, India Cement, Dalmia Bharat, JK Lakshmi Cement, Shree Cement and others all suspended operations to varying degrees in the first phase of the lockdown in late March 2020. Operations of industrial plants in rural areas was then cleared to restart in mid-April 2020, although subject to local permissions and social distancing rules, as the country’s lockdown zones took shape. All of this started to show in company results towards the end of March 2020 as sales started to be hit. The worst is yet to filter through to balance sheets.

March 2020 was a particularly bad time for the government to shut down cement plants because it is normally the month when annual construction work peaks. Cement production usually hits a high around the same time. The monsoon season then follows, reducing demand, giving producers a poor time to restart business. Credit ratings agency Care Ratings has forecast that capacity utilisation will drop to 45% in the 2020 – 2021 financial year. This follows a rate of 65 – 70% over the last six years with the exception of 2019- 2020, which was dragged down to 61% due to lockdown effects. On top of this labour issues are also expected to be a major issue to the sector returning to normality. The mass movement of workers back to their homes made world-wide news as India started its lockdown. Now they have to move back and Care Ratings thinks this is unlikely to complete until after the monsoon season, by September 2020. Hence, it doesn’t expect a partial recovery until the autumn, nor a full recovery until January 2021 at the earliest.

Not everybody is quite as gloomy though. HM Bangur, the managing director at Shree Cement recently told the Business Standard newspaper that he was expecting a rebound following the resumption of production in May 2020. He also reported a capacity utilisation rate of 60% at his company, higher than Care Rating’s prediction above, and he noted a difference between demand in rural areas and smaller cities (higher) compared to bigger cities (lower).

India is now pushing forward with plans to further unlock its containment measures to focus on the economy. However, daily reported news cases of coronavirus surpassed 8000 for the first time on Sunday 31 May 2020. How well its more relaxed lockdown rules will work won’t be seen for a few weeks. While this plays out we’ll end with quote from HM Bangur that will resonate with cement producers everywhere: “sales are imperative.”

The Construction Products Association (CPA) has just forecast a 25% drop in construction output for 2020 in the UK due to Covid-19. And this is the optimistic prediction! It blamed the decline, which is said to be the sharpest ever recorded, on the country’s coronavirus-related lockdown. 60% of planned construction output was lost in April 2020 due to social distancing measures. This compares to a 6.5% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2020 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2020 for the UK. OneStone Consulting’s Joe Harder in his Covid-19 Impact Analysis CIC 2025 report has forecast a 12.7% decrease in European cement production. Readers should keep in mind that construction output, GDP and cement production are all connected but not necessarily directly related.

Further details of note from the CPA include a direct link between the strength of lockdown measures and work lost, as well as differences between types of activity. So, for example, more construction output (in percentage terms) was reported lost in Scotland, where tighter lockdown measures were implemented. On the latter point, more output was lost in residential construction compared to non-residential with a similar trend reported in the repair, maintenance and improvement sector, again worsened in the residential part of this market. The sector that suffered the least was non-residential repair and maintenance as work on, currently, mostly deserted buildings and infrastructure was prioritised. One example of this may have been Aggregate Industries, the UK subsidiary of LafargeHolcim, which said this week that it had completed major works on the A14, a major regional trunk road, ahead of schedule. It didn’t directly make the link in its press release but quiet roads would have helped.

The CPA is touting the now-familiar range of letter-shaped economic recession shapes in the report, including ‘V’, ‘W’ and the dreaded ‘U’. However, the CPA’s Economics Director Noble Francis was more confident that infrastructure projects would bounce back fastest due to favourable investment cycles in utilities, government support for its high-speed railway scheme HS2 and, “greater ability to implement safe distancing for workers on larger sites.”

That last point ties in nicely with the operational guidance that the Mineral Product Association (MPA), the UK’s trade association for the heavy building material sector in the UK, released last week. This is all crucial information on a comprehensive and detailed scale along the lines released in other countries.

Much of this will be becoming second nature to cement industry workers and/or will be familiar to anyone who has watched US consultant John Kline discuss these issues on Global Cement Live. Yet there are some points worth discussing here such as ‘Avoid Distraction.’ This one’s all about remembering to keep in mind existing health and safety practices alongside all the coronavirus-related ones. All the usual health and safety regulations and advice remain in place and in some ways become even more important as there may be fewer staff working on socially-distanced sites, or first responders may be otherwise busy elsewhere. Another point from the MPA’s guidance is to ‘Provide More Time,’ which acknowledges that working with coronavirus measures will require more time. Other implications from a business changed by coronavirus are things like notifying the police when sites are closed and considering further security for such sites to minimise risk of theft. A lot of this stuff seems obvious but it’s easy to miss things.

For a recent review of the UK cement industry readers should refer to Edwin Trout’s feature in the June 2020 issue of Global Cement Magazine. One change since it was published has been Cemex’s proposal to mothball its 0.8Mt/yr South Ferriby integrated plant in Lincolnshire. The cement producer says it is not related to coronavirus but if the CPA’s predictions are accurate then it will make it that much harder to keep the plant open.

Everyone’s hoping for a ‘V’ shaped recovery from the coronavirus downturn in the UK and everywhere else around the world. Boots on the ground operating advice like that issued by the MPA and others is part of how the construction materials industries can work towards achieving this.

Huaxin Cement’s deal to buy ARM Cement’s assets in Tanzania has reportedly completed this morning. The Chinese cement producer will pour US$116m into Maweni Limestone to settle its liabilities and add another US$30m to complete plant construction and an upgrade, according to Reuters. Kenyan-based ARM Cement operates an integrated plant at Tanga and a grinding plant at Dar es Salaam.

Given the state of the world at the moment due to coronavirus the timing seems almost prophetic. There have been plenty of jingoistic warnings in Western media about renewed Chinese global dominance in the wake of the crisis. However, this agreement dates back to at least September 2019 when it was publicly announced, well before the current health scare. This is part of the Chinese expansion plan in Sub-Saharan Africa that’s been happening informally and formally since at least 2013. ARM Cement has seriously suffered since 2017 when cement demand fell in Kenya, a coal import ban in Tanzania caused production issues at its Tanga plant and increased competition hit both countries. It entered administration in the summer of 2018 and previous owner Pradeep Paunrana has been fighting PricewaterhouseCoopers’ attempts to sell the business to local rival National Cement. In some respects the timing of this deal may also be bad for Huaxin Cement given that it’s just suffered a 36% year-on-year drop in sales revenue to US$542m in the first quarter of 2020, related to the coronavirus outbreak. If the company can’t absorb this through the rest of the year then it might have a problem.

The real trend here in Chinese expansion strategy by its cement sector is a move from imports, building plants and co-financing projects to outright asset acquisition. This isn’t the first example either. West China Cement completed its purchase of a majority stake in Schwenk Namibia for US$104m in January 2020. This gave it control of Ohorongo Cement. Other recent Chinese moves in Sub-Saharan Africa include the supply of a modular grinding mill in Guinea by Sinoma and the competition of construction of a 1Mt/yr integrated plant in Lubudi Territory in Democratic Republic of Congo by another CNBM subsidiary, Tianjin Cement Industry Design and Research Institute.

An outlier from the more ‘traditional’ Chinese routes of either supplying equipment and/or co-financing cement plants in Africa has been the CNBM/Sinoma plan to build a 7Mt/yr ‘mega’ plant in Tanzania. Once completed it will nearly double local clinker production! Unsurprisingly, when it was first announced it was pitched towards the export market. Cement producers in East Africa might do well to remind themselves what has happened in Egypt since the 13Mt/yr government/army-run El-Arish Cement plant at Beni Suef opened in 2018: the over-supplied market collapsed. Together with the Huaxin Cement purchase, once the CNBM project completes, Chinese companies will own the majority of cement production capacity in Tanzania.

Looking at Sub-Saharan Africa, Chinese cement producers look set to benefit from any potential economic realignment following the coronavirus pandemic due to their conservative approach in expanding overseas. By investing cautiously and generally avoiding large-scale international acquisitions and mergers they have insulated themselves relatively well from any potential economic crisis. One weakness though is a reliance on the strong Chinese domestic market. If, say, it declines over a longer period due to the coronavirus crisis or ever reaches more ‘normal’ per-capita cement consumption figures then expanding too slowly overseas might look like the wrong strategy in retrospect. Yet, if western competitors start retreating further then the temptation to start to buy assets in bulk may grow. Another risk is how badly the coronavirus outbreak hits countries in Africa. The combination of poor healthcare systems, younger populations and warmer climates make it extremely unpredictable. Fortune may favour the bold but slow success seems to be working well for Chinese producers so far.

Many of the first quarter financial results are in from the multinational cement producers and a few points are worth discussing. As usual a few caveats are worth mentioning such as seasonal and geographical variations between companies, such as producers in the northern hemisphere experiencing a generally slower period. It’s also worth noting that this is a selective look at some of the larger cement producers as not all of them release detailed figures at this stage and others have been delayed. However, the economic effects of the coronavirus lockdowns are clearly showing an effect in a kind of wave as the pandemic has spread.

Graph 1: Sales revenues in the first quarter of 2020 from selected cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 1 above shows the effects of the earlier lockdown in China upon the results of the Chinese producers like CNBM, Anhui Conch and China Resources Cement (CRC). What’s interesting with these companies is that they have all suffered revenue hits of 20 – 25%. Huaxin Cement, a producer based in Hubei province near Wuhan where the Chinese lockdown was strictest, is not shown in Graph 1 but its revenue fell by 35% in the first quarter. See GCW452 for more on coronavirus effects on the Chinese cement industry.

Looking more widely, both LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement suffered declines of around 10%. This is somewhat misleading as both companies are constantly selling assets making the like-for-like results not quite as bad, particularly in the case of LafargeHolcim with its South-East Asian divestments. Although note this week that LafargeHolcim’s deal to sell its majority stake in Holcim Philippines lapsed this week due to the local competition regulator not granting permission in time. Yet, they are also beneficiaries and victims to an extent of their wide geographical spread with worse performance in Asia and better results in North America. For a fuller look at LafargeHolcim’s first quarter results see last week’s column. The rest of the producers featured generally reflect their tighter market spread with Buzzi Unicem particularly benefiting from the relatively untouched market in the US. Shree Cement, an Indian producer, escaped relatively unscathed, possibly as the Indian lockdown only started in late March 2020. All eyes will be on the results of UltraTech Cement, the largest producer in India, when they finally emerge.

Graph 2: Cement sales volumes in the first quarter of 2020 from selected cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

Cement sales volumes tell a similar story, although a few different companies are featured in Graph 2. Note CRC’s year-on-year fall of 26% to 11.2Mt in the first quarter. It’s the only larger Chinese cement producer that we’ve found so far that has released sales volumes. Semen Indonesia is interesting too because its figures jumped in January 2020 as its acquisition of Holcim Indonesia only went on the books in February 2019. It’s February and March sales volumes have each been 4 - 5% down year-on-year but it’s far from clear whether this is due to general production overcapacity in the country or from the global health crisis. Despite this, its export volumes from both the mainland and its TLCC subsidiary in Vietnam have held up well. Unfortunately though, its performance in Vietnam may be an outlier if data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs is to be believed this week. It indicated that overall cement exports from the country fell by 9.7% year-on-year to 7.73Mt in the first quarter of 2020. Cementos Argos is also worth looking at as it suffered from the government lockdown in Colombia despite having an international presence in the Caribbean and the US.

Most of the world’s largest cement producers are preparing for the economic shockwaves from lockdowns to hit balance sheets in the second quarter of 2020. Many have said exactly this and have paraded their liquidity levels in preparation. Alongside this the results of the Chinese producers in the next quarter may offer some light on what kind of recovery is possible from easing lockdown measures. Yet the risk of second waves of infections from coronavirus potentially jeopardises any kind of fast or easy recovery without a vaccine. Today’s news that Cemex is considering mothballing its integrated plant at South Ferriby in the UK has been blamed on an analysis of the company’s European cement supply chain. The company says it is not related to coronoavirus but it does suggest the company is making savings.

This week has seen international press coverage return to Wuhan, China and South Korea where small numbers of infections have started to build despite being thought mostly eradicated. No one wants the so-called ‘W’ economic recovery with its rollercoaster ride of crests and dips or indeed the ‘L’ with its slow tail of recovery. Yet, for better or for worse, some form of normality has to return after the lockdowns end. The UK, for example, the country with the worst death rate from coronanvirus in Europe, has allowed its construction workers to pick up tools this week. If and when they can do so in the UK and everywhere else without causing the basic reproduction number (R₀) to rise then the future starts to look a little brighter.