Analysis

The story so far for the first half of 2021 has been one of recovery following the coronavirus-related lockdowns in the same period in 2020. Market restrictions ended, production curbs were rescinded and revenue and sales volumes grew.

Many of the larger multinational cement producers have released their financial results and sales revenues show a gap-tooth pattern for the first halves of 2019, 2020 and 2021. Sales for LafargeHolcim, HeidelbergCement and Cemex all took a knock of around 10% from 2019 to 2020. Generally, sales have increased from 2019 to 2021 for the more regional-based companies such as Cemex or Buzzi Unicem. The larger multinational producers like Holcim and HeidelbergCement bounced back from the dip in 2020 but comparisons with the first half of 2019 are less favourable. Like-for-like comparisons between 2019 and 2021 are not available but both companies have been refocusing their portfolios in recent years making it hard to gain a sense of exactly what’s going on. These trends are still ongoing with more speculation in the press this week about which companies are bidding for LafargeHolcim Brasil for example. However, both Holcim and HeidelbergCement did report record earnings or operating incomes in the first half of 2021 suggesting that all the cost cutting in 2020 has paid off. The general market picture was continuing demand in North America, recovery in Europe and Latin America, growth in Africa and the Middle East and growth in Asia despite renewed coronavirus-related uncertainty.

Figure 1: Sales of selected major multinational cement producers in first half of 2021. Source: Company financial reports.

Figure 2: Cement sales volumes of selected major multinational cement producers in first half of 2021. Source: Company financial reports.

Cemex and Buzzi Unicem benefitted from their strong market presences in the Americas and Europe. Cemex was also helped by a particular recovery in Mexico and Latin America. The latter region benefited from the relaxation of strong lockdown measures in many countries implemented in the first half of 2020. Cemex’s investors update event at the end of June 2021 summed up its situation with earnings growth and leverage levels about to hit desired targets, selective investments and divestments on the way, new production capacity round the corner and sustainability goals turning up earlier than expected.

In Africa, Dangote Cement witnessed a switch from growth outside of Nigeria to a spurt of domestic demand for cement from mid-2020 onwards. This temporarily caused the company problems earlier in 2021 when it was forced to suspend its newly started export operations to Cameroon from its Onne and Apapa terminals. The reactivation of its previously mothballed 4.5Mt/yr Gboko plant in Benue State and an upcoming 3Mt/yr plant at Okpella in Edo state seem to have soothed the demand rush for now. Clinker exports have been resumed.

India meanwhile faced a second wave of its coronavirus epidemic in the spring of 2021. UltraTech Cement acknowledged this in its latest financial results, for the quarter to 30 June 2021. It reported that this had ‘marginally’ impacted cement demand but that the company was still monitoring the impact of the health situation upon its operations. Despite this, revenue and sales volumes of cement still grew significantly year-on-year in both the quarter and the first half of 2021. UltraTech Cement’s wariness about the health situation chimed with recent comments by Roongrote Rangsiyopash, the head of Siam Cement Group (SCG), who told local press in Thailand that current coronavirus restrictions in the country had reduced cement demand by 20%.

Finally, Semen Indonesia reported growing revenue, sales volumes of cement and earnings in the first half of 2021. Its financial results had little to say about the local coronavirus situation other than that it had reduced domestic demand growth and worsened production overcapacity. National cement production reached 115Mt in 2020 but local demand was only 62.7Mt. Unsurprisingly, exports reached their highest level ever, at 9.3Mt, in 2020.

As ever this is a very selective view of cement producer financial results. Larger multinationals like CRH or Votorantim are yet to release their results and likewise for the big Chinese producers. Recovery and growth seems to be the likely outcome for most of them though. However, the effects of recent coronavirus outbreaks in Asia have shown up in some of the results covered above. This suggests that the second half of 2021 for building materials manufacturers may be characterised by which countries are better able to suppress coronavirus either through mass vaccination or other public health measures. Buzzi Unicem summed it up it in its half year results: “The rapid progress of vaccination campaigns was matched by a clear recovery in economic activity.”

Holcim has started to unify its low carbon cement product range this week with the launch of its ECOPlanet label globally. The products are already available in Germany, Romania, Canada, Switzerland, Spain, France and Italy. The plan is to extend this to 15 countries by the end of 2021 and then to double its ‘market presence’ by the end of 2022.

The headline news is that the range will include what Holcim says is the world’s first cement product with 20% recycled construction and demolition waste. This appears to be an improvement on the group’s Susteno cement products that use fine fractions from concrete and demolition waste. This product is currently sold in Switzerland where it is advertised as saving 10% of CO₂ emissions compared to a standard cement product. Both Holcim and HeidelbergCement already sell concrete products that use the coarse waste from building demolition. Other than this, Holcim says that the range will also include cements that contain calcined clay. In June 2021 subsidiary Lafarge France announced that it would produce a cement product under the ECOPlanet banner using kaolin clay with its proprietary ProximA Tech process at its integrated La Malle cement plant in Bouc-Bel-Air.

We will have to wait and see how far Holcim goes in standardisng the range between different countries. Yet, judging from what the countries that are already selling ECOPlanet are doing, it looks like it will be a variety of blended cements. At present, for example, Holcim Germany offers four products in the ECOPlanet range. These are all slag cements, with three having effective CO₂ reductions of up to 70% and the fourth, ECOPlanet Zero, reaching 100% through a carbon offsetting scheme in conjunction with MoorFutures. Holcim Italy also launched a product in the range called ECOPlanet Prime using calcined clay in June 2021.

Incidentally, LafargeHolcim US announced a research project this week with the US Army about using demolition waste. It’s going to start working with the US Army Corps of Engineers’ Engineer Research and Development Center and Geocycle to look at how construction and demolition materials from military installations can be used for energy recovery and mineral recycling. Group resources at Geocycle’s Holly Hill Research Center in South Carolina, US and Holcim’s Global Innovation Center in Lyon, France will be used in the scheme.

Other low carbon cement products are available of course. Holcim is far from alone in launching low CO₂ cement and concrete products. Yet the use of worldwide brand names is different. Cemex is doing something similar with the global rollout of its Vertua concrete products. It first launched Vertua in France in 2018 before going global in 2020. Holcim started to launch ECOPact Concrete in 2019. Now, Holcim has gone further by doing the same thing with cement. Given how localised cement and concrete products are, it will be instructive to see how global branding for low carbon cementitious products helps these companies. For instance, who is the target audience? It could be eco-minded self-build customers or project specifiers or government departments or industry lobbyists. Or perhaps it is simply another marketing channel to reinforce the sector’s sustainable offerings.

The other point worth considering is when will the multinational cement producers start selling sustainable cements and concretes in less rich parts of the world? While Holcim was playing with blended cements and marketing this week, Dangote Cement said that it was ready to start commissioning its new 6Mt/yr integrated plant at Okpella, Edo State in Nigeria. Another 5Mt/yr plant is also on the way in the country from Madugu Cement. It has just signed a contract for China-based Sinoma International Engineering Company to build it. When Holcim and the other cement companies start selling low carbon cements in places like Nigeria then the rise of these products will be complete.

For more information on low CO₂ cement production read our feature in the February 2021 issue of Global Cement Magazine

There has been a significant investment in the South Korean cement industry this week with the news that Hanil Hyundai Cement has ordered a steam-based waste heat recovery (WHR) system from Japan-based Kawasaki Heavy Industries. The 22.6MW system will be used on two of the production lines at the Yeongwol plant in Gangwon Province. The supplier says that installation is expected to generate about 30% of the energy the plant needs and save around 10,000t/yr of CO₂ in the process. Delivery is scheduled for late 2022.

This order may be the first investment following the announcement in late June 2021 that the state-owned Korea Development Bank had pledged around US$870m towards supporting the cement sector in making carbon reduction upgrades by 2025. These are intended to include moving away from burning fossil fuels in cement production and increasing the use of recycling materials. At the time of the agreement between the bank and the Korea Cement Association (KCA), Hanil Hyundai Cement noted that the local alternative fuels substitution rate was 24% compared to 46% in the European Union and 68% in Germany.

Graph 1: Cement production in South Korea, 2010 – 2020. Source: Korea Cement Association

By European or American standards South Korea kept its coronavirus cases under control in 2020. A robust testing and contract tracing regime (K-Quarantine) managed to prevent the country enforcing stricter measures until late in 2020. A fourth wave of infections, currently underway in July 2021, due to the more contagious Delta variant, has started to change this. Despite being able to keep its economy open though, the construction sector still took a hit although not as bad as initially feared.

Cement production fell by 6% year-on-year to 47.5Mt in 2020 from 50.6Mt in 2019 following a downward trend since 2017. The KCA expected worse after a poor third quarter in 2020 when it was preparing for shipments to fall below the level last seen in the midst of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) crisis in the late 1990s. On top of this the industry was also potentially facing a new tax on production towards the end of 2020. One large local producer, Ssangyong C&E, reported a 5% year-on-year drop in sales to US$864m in 2020 from US$910m in 2019. However, it managed to increase its operating profit over the same period. So far in 2021 the sector faced supply shortages in the spring. The KSA blamed the winter plant maintenance schedule and a lack of railway wagons and trucks.

The timing of the Korea Development Bank investment in the cement sector is interesting given the movement on the European Union carbon border adjustment mechanism. Cement exports seem unlikely to be affected but business lobbyists like the Federation of Korean Industries are well aware of the effects schemes like this might have upon commodities like steel and aluminium in the first phase and then the implications for car production later on. Target markets for cement exports such as the US, Peru, Chile and the Philippines might all become vulnerable should carbon-based trade restrictions become more prevalent. Of course export markets remain vulnerable to more usual hindrances. For example, in March 2021 the Philippines extended its safeguard measures on cement imports to various countries including South Korea.

Following a round of market consolidation in the late 2010s, the South Korean cement sector now appears to be entering a phase of sustainable realignment. In late May 2021 Prime Minister Moon Jae-in announced plans to hasten the country’s carbon reduction targets ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference scheduled for November 2021, including a carbon tax. With cement production on a downward trend since 2017 and the coronavirus crisis far from gone it will be instructive to see how far the intervention of the Korea Development Bank will go.

LafargeHolcim became Holcim this week with the launch of its new group identity. It also released a manifesto. Corporate names and logos come and go in the swirl of capital but straight up declarations of intent are rarer. Companies in the normally conservative building materials sector don’t tend to do this. This is more the terrain of political movements. So what’s going on?

Figure 1: From a merger of equals to building progress for people and the planet, the LafargeHolcim and Holcim logos.

Looking at the new logo gives us a few clues. The light grey-brown Tetris-style ‘L’ and ‘H’ letters symbolising the ‘merger of equals’ have gone. In its place come two circular symbols that look like they might connect. Together they give the impression of a slanted figure of eight or a lemniscate (infinity symbol). All of this is set to a few shades of blue and green. Could these two symbols be suggesting recycling or the circular economy? Who knows, but hopefully the advertising agency that came up with it was well remunerated. Luckily for us Holcim’s chief executive officer, Jan Jenisch, explained it, “Today marks a milestone for our company in our transformation to become the global leader in innovative and sustainable solutions.”

The manifesto is clearer. Entitled ‘Building progress for people and the planet’ it lays out some of the problems facing the world, such as population growth, urbanisation and climate change mitigation. It then addresses how Holcim is already tackling these issues and how it wants to go further in becoming part of the answer. This is the big vision so it doesn’t trouble itself with the detail on how, for example, the company is going to eliminate process emissions from clinker production on its journey to net zero. This is after all the big pitch to hearts and minds. It also doesn’t stain its fingers with anything suggesting who is going to pay for this grand noble ambition. We’ll have to wait for the next investor’s event to discover how much of this dream washes over into the private equity and pension fund crowd.

In Holcim’s defence, as one of the world’s largest building materials producers, it needs to carve itself a grand vision to occupy within a future preoccupied with climate change. Pretty much everyone in the developed world uses products manufactured by Holcim and its competitors even if they don’t realise it. Yet they are increasingly becoming more aware of the negative issues raised by environmental campaigners. Over in the developing world, adequate housing and infrastructure provision are live political issues for many as economies grow. Threading the needle to tie these trends together is quite the challenge for Holcim and the others. As a public company it serves its shareholders, but, as a multinational wedged in the middle of the climate change debate cascading into global politics, it ultimately answers to everyone. Hence a mission statement or a manifesto makes sense.

Meanwhile, for a glimpse on the Chinese approach to these kinds of problems, China National Building Materials (CNBM) subsidiary China Building Materials Academy (CBMA) signed a knowledge sharing agreement this week with the Canada-based International CCS Knowledge Centre to collaborate on carbon capture technology. The project plans to start with a 155kg CO2/day pilot on an active cement plant kiln. If successful, the study could lead to CNBM rolling it out across its entire cement operations. This would be hugely significant globally and given the scale of the Chinese industrial sector there’s also a reasonable chance it could happen at speed. If this occurred CNBM could leave the politics to its owner, the Chinese government.

There was good news from the corporate finance sector for cement producers this week in the form of an approving statement by Fitch Ratings. It declared that it expected the sector to be able to pass on the costs of decarbonisation to customers due to a lack of alternatives. It recognised the challenges posed by regulators, investors and societal pressure but, even so, it suggested that cement was still an industry worth backing. Or at least for now. Added to this, it forecast that demand for building materials would grow to support the transition to a low carbon economy and to combat the damage caused by climate change. It did admit that the capital or operating costs required to decarbonise are seen as being potentially large, especially with uncertainty over how much governments will pay or incentivise. Yet the timescales involved are beyond the ratings agency’s ‘horizon’ hence no really disruptive shifts in producer economics are expected anytime soon.

This was obviously a win for the cement industry and its cheerleading associations led by the Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA), the World Cement Association and the regional associations. After all, the increasingly convergent message to the wider world has been along the lines of ‘concrete is part of the solution and you need our products because there’s nothing else.’ Good timing then for the GCCA to launch its collaboration with the World Economic Forum, the ‘Concrete Action for Climate’ (CAC) initiative. The collaborative platform is planned to help drive the industry’s journey to carbon neutral concrete by 2050 as part of the wider Mission Possible Partnership, a wider coalition of public and private organisations working on setting the heavy industry and transport sectors towards net-zero. Expect lots more of these kinds of announcements on the road to the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) taking place in Scotland in late October 2021.

Fitch Ratings did point out that societal awareness was likely to accelerate decarbonisation. The sharp end of this trend was experienced by the building materials industry this week when environmental activist group Extinction Rebellion forced operations to stop temporarily at LafargeHolcim’s Port de Javel ready-mixed concrete plant in Paris on 30 June 2021. This followed a similar incident by the same group at a LafargeHolcim subsidiary ready-mix plant in London in mid-2019. Given the share of global CO₂ emissions from the cement-concrete production chain, it is perhaps surprising that climate activists haven’t targeted clinker-producing cement plants directly in the same way that they have gone after coal-fired power stations. Clinker kilns are, after all, the source of the majority of the sector’s emissions. However, blockading a concrete plant in the city may conjure up a more potent media image than doing the same to a factory out in the country.

Instead the battles with cement plants and their quarries tend to be of a ‘not in my back yard’ (Nimby) nature. Or rather ‘not in my monastery (Nimmon?) this week, with the news that a subsidiary of YTL Cement in Malaysia is attempting to evict a group of Buddhist monks and their underground place of worship from a quarry on Mount Kanthan in Perak. In the latest twist of the long running saga, the monks have hit back with an attempt to get their portion of the site recognised as a place of worship and a heritage site. Thankfully a more positive example of how quarries can fit in with the wider community could be found this week in the guise of an archaeological dig at CRH subsidiary Tarmac’s Knobb’s Farm quarry in Cambridgeshire, UK. The discovery of a Roman Britain-era cemetery with a high proportion of decapitated bodies may have been gruesome but the relations between the operator and the archaeologists were much more harmonious. Another recent example was the discovery of what may be a new precursor species of humans, unearthed at a quarry run by Nesher-Israel Cement Enterprises site at Ramla in late June 2021.

The paradox building materials producers pose to environmental activists could be summed up by the record heat wave that hit the north-western region of North America recently. CO₂ emissions, in minor part produced by the cement and concrete industries, are the most likely reason for an increased frequency of extreme weather events such as this. Yet, infrastructure such as pavements and roads were widely reported as having buckled in the heat, principally because they weren’t built for such high temperatures. They will have to be rebuilt to withstand similar temperatures in the future. Building materials can thus be seen as both part of the problem and part of the solution. Yet with net zero targets nearly 30 years away it seems likely that continued extreme weather events and their potentially lethal consequences will speed up the public demand for decarbonisation. It is worth noting here that one of Extinction Rebellion’s demands in the UK is that the country should become net zero by 2025.

Fitch Ratings has cast its vote for now and Extinction Rebellion and its fellows are set to continue to wage their political campaigns. In the meantime it is debatable how much spiritual solace will be found by the monks of Mount Kanthan during blasting hours at the neighbouring quarry.