Analysis

Two stories tie into larger trends this week as Global Cement Weekly says goodbye to 2021. Firstly, the state government of Odisha dropped a bombshell this week with its approval for an 18.75Mt/yr cement plant. Keen readers of the Global Cement Directory should note that, if built, this would be around the 10th largest plant worldwide and possibly the biggest outside of China. Credit to Odisha and India though for showing us how to end the year!

Odisha has been encouraging steel production in recent years. In March 2021 local press reported that Arcelor Mittal Nippon Steel (AMNS) had signed a memorandum of understanding with the state government for a US$6.6bn steel plant in the same district. Notably, a more binding agreement was intended to be signed once land and mining leases had been secured. This week the state said that its High Level Clearance Authority had approved an enlarged plan with AMNS worth US$13.5bn. This includes a 24Mt/yr steel plant and a 18.75Mt/yr cement plant. Both are to be built in phases over seven years. No further word on those land and mining leases though. How this fits into India’s overall plans for net zero CO₂ emissions by 2070 is anyone’s guess. Yet this is another cement project linked to steel production. Readers may recall that steel producer Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) Cimentos picked up Holcim’s Brazilian cement plants in September 2021.

The other story of note this week was Cembureau’s calculation that if the European Union (EU) emissions trading scheme (ETS) CO₂ price reached Euro90/t then this could represent up to 15% of a cement plant’s production costs. The European cement association made the calculation using data from Ecorys, WIFO, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research for the EU Commission and Agora Energiewende. It wants the EU to bolster carbon leakage measures as soon as possible to fight rising import rates from outside the region. It is pushing for a delay to phasing out the free allocation in the ETS, bringing forward the proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and for legislators to tackle rising carbon and energy costs generally. It should be noted that the EU ETS price reached Euro88/t on 8 December 2021 but it has stayed below that level since then.

As mentioned at the start, both of the stories above connect to larger trends, principally the cement sector’s adjustments to meet its sustainability goals. A new cement plant with a readily available supply of ground granulated blast furnace slag, such as a potential AMNS unit might have, can reduce its clinker factor more easily than its competitors. One major story in Europe over the last two years has been the steep increase in the ETS price, and Cembureau is highlighting the problems this has caused its members. Global Cement Magazine has run a number of annual round-ups in the last two issues that cover these issues and others. Dr Robert McCaffrey’s news and trends list for 2021 from the Global Cement LIVE broadcast on 21 December 2021 pulls together many of these ideas and more and is well worth watching.

We’ll finish with a list of the top 10 news stories on the Global Cement website in 2021. This reflects what readers all over the world are interested in at a particular time and the list is also biased towards stories that were published in the first half of the year as they have had more time to gather views. Yet, note, new plants in Africa and South Asia, a cement shortage story, Holcim’s decision to change its name and the problems a European producer, Cementa, has had with its quarrying. All of these touch upon larger themes.

Top 10 news stories on Global Cement website in 2021

1. Dzata Cement bagging plant to open in mid-2021
2. UK faces short-term cement shortage
3. LafargeHolcim shareholders agree to change group name to Holcim
4. SRM Concrete acquires 24 concrete plants in Dallas from Cementos Argos
5. Bestway Cement to build new cement plant in Mianwali
6. ThyssenKrupp abandons sale of ThyssenKrupp Industrial Solutions cement section
7. Holcim launches new corporate brand identity
8. Swedish supreme court rejects application by Cementa to renew mining permit for Slite cement plant
9. Larsen & Toubro wins new 3.5Mt/yr cement plant contract in Rajasthan
10. ACC breaks ground on 2.7Mt/yr Ametha cement plant project

Enjoy the Christmas and New Year break if you have one.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 5 January 2022

Saint-Gobain has headed back to the attention of the cement sector this week with a deal to buy GCP Applied Technologies and a joint-venture with Cementos Argos in Colombia.

The first development carries on the French conglomerate’s move into the construction chemicals market. In October 2021 it acquired Chryso for Euro1.02bn. Other recent deals include agreements to buy Romania-based construction chemicals company Duraziv in May 2021 and Mexico-based IMPAC in October 2021. The GCP Applied Technologies deal is valued at Euro2.3bn with closure planned by the end of 2022. As Saint-Gobain put it, “The combined platform of Weber, Chryso and GCP offers customers a highly comprehensive portfolio of construction chemicals solutions with strong complementary geographic footprints.” It says that it sees the planned acquisition as the “logical next step” to expand its market share in admixtures and additives. It also reckons that Chryso and GCP Applied Technologies are complimentary geographically with Chryso positions mostly in Europe, Middle East and Africa and with GCP’s positions in North America, Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Once the deal goes through, Saint-Gobain will operate 75 production sites in the sector in 38 countries. The specialty building materials part of GCP will then be integrated into the CertainTeed subsidiary in North America.

The arrangement in Colombia concerns a joint-venture intended to focus on lightweight and sustainable building materials. Detail is scarce beyond an announcement by Cementos Argos on its website but the focus appears to be on bringing in Saint-Gobain’s mortar products and/or technology into the local market.

This move towards the lightweight building materials market may sound familiar. That’s because it is similar to what Holcim has also been doing recently, notably with its acquisition of Firestone Building Products earlier this year. It is interesting though to see both companies targeting the lightweight sector from different places. Both have also framed their intentions in terms of sustainability goals. Notably, Saint-Gobain has far lower carbon emissions than many cement producers. For example, Holcim reported sales of around Euro22bn in 2020 with absolute gross Scope 1 CO₂ emissions of 110Mt. Saint-Gobain reported sales of around Euro38bn with total Scope 1 CO₂ emissions of 7.9Mt.

At an investors event in October 2021 Saint-Gobain’s chief executive officer Benoit Bazin said that the group’s ambition was to become the worldwide leader in light and sustainable construction. Saint-Gobain’s business portfolio was diverse already before the GCP announcement, with its construction products focused on ‘lighter’ materials such as gypsum wallboard, insulation and glass. Its expansion into the construction chemicals market is of relevance to the cement industry directly through the supply of admixtures for cement and concrete. It’s also of interest to wider trends in construction because the acquisitions show another company chasing the lightweight building materials market. One expectation, as countries and companies have signed up to net zero carbon commitments, is that the demand for lightweight materials in the building envelope will grow and companies are reacting accordingly. The question at this stage is whether there is space in their growing market for all of them.

Cementos Argos announced this week that it is starting the process for an initial public offering (IPO) for its US business. It said that this had followed several months of consideration by its board of directors. Getting listed on the New York Stock Exchange is expected to help the company ‘optimise’ its capital structure and promote growth, due in part to the recent approval of the US$1Tn Infrastructure Bill in the US and a general positive cycle expected for the local construction materials sector over the next decade.

Argos’ decision to go public in the US comes hot on the heels of several recent attempts in Colombia to buy stakes in two of the major shareholders of Grupo Argos, the parent company of Cementos Argos and Argos USA. First, Grupo Gilinski tried to buy a majority stake in Grupo Nutresa in early November 2021. Then, at the end of November 2021, Grupo Gilinski put in an offer for a large minority share, up to 32%, of Grupo SURA.

Argos, Nutresa and SURA are all part of a highly interconnected group of companies known as the Grupo Empresarial Antioqueño (GEA), which each own stakes in each other. In part this structure helps to prevent hostile takeover attempts. However, Grupo Gilinski appears to be trying to challenge this, in the eyes of some market observers. Grupo Argos is the next obvious target for such an attempt after Nutresa and SURA. In response Grupo Argos has said that it won’t take part in Grupo Gilinski’s public acquisition offer to buy shares in Nutresa (it owns around 10% itself). Instead it has accelerated its plans for Argos USA and also wants to consolidate its interests in road and airport concessions, energy and real estate into a single entity, also to be listed in New York. All of this can be seen as action intended to make any further moves by Grupo Gilinski on GEA harder. Corporate tussles between Grupo Gilinski and GEA also hark back to a long-running legal dispute from the late 1990s over the formation of Bancolombia.

It is reasonable for the US subsidiary of Cementos Argos to want to raise funds from an IPO. The business has gradually been expanding over the last 15 years or so. First it acquired ready-mix concrete operations in the southern US from 2005. Then it purchased two integrated cement plants from Lafarge in 2011, at Roberta in Alabama and Harleyville in South Carolina respectively. This was followed by the integrated Newberry plant in Florida from Vulcan Materials in 2014, along with two grinding units in Florida. Finally, it picked up the integrated Martinsburg plant in West Virginia from HeidelbergCement in 2016. More recently it has been divesting some of its concrete plants in the US. At present Argos USA is the ninth largest cement producer in the country by cement production capacity.

Its cement sales volumes have grown by 4.5% year-on-year to 4.6Mt in the first nine months of 2021 and earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBIDA) rose by 25% to US$239m although sales revenue dipped very slightly to US$1.09bn. Ready-mixed concrete sales volumes have also fallen, by 12% to 3.98Mm³. The growth has been attributed to both residential and commercial markets and the Infrastructure Bill is expected to keep demand brisk for the next few years. Looking at the wider picture, cement generated about 64% of Grupo Argos’ revenue in 2020, its biggest share after energy generation and a concessions business. A third of Cementos Argos’ revenue so far in 2021 came from the US.

It’s fascinating to glimpse what may be some of the inner corporate workings of Grupo Argos and the various things it has to consider for its US cement business. The US subsidiary is clearly a major earner for it with a buoyant future. The Portland Cement Association (PCA) was forecasting cement consumption growth of nearly 8% in 2021 and 2% in 2022 in its summer summary and that was before the infrastructure bill made it into law. Further expansion in the US by Argos is to be expected and the planned IPO underlines this. Meanwhile whether this and other actions are enough to stymie Grupo Gilinski remain to be seen.

Holcim has announced today that it has concluded the sale of its 75% stake of its Zambian business to Huaxin Cement. Meanwhile, in Tanzania last week, Huaxin Cement officially commissioned a cement grinding line at its Tanzanian Maweni Limestone plant. China produces about half the world’s cement and some its producers are expanding overseas as domestic growth dwindles. These actions and others place increased scrutiny on sustainability issues for Chinese cement producers. Readers therefore may be interested to note the publication last week of a list of the 100 largest Chinese corporate emitters of CO₂ in 2020.

The Chinese Cement Association (CCA) website carries some highlights on the work by from the cement sector’s perspective. China Venture Carbon and Caixin compiled the list of publicly listed companies using a mixture of freely available data such as sustainability reports, by adjusting public data or by making estimates. The companies covered released 4.42Bnt of CO₂ in 2020 or 45% of the Chinese total. The 15 cement firms in the top 100 were responsible for 893Mt of CO₂ or around 9% of the national total. This ratio is in keeping with the usual 5 – 10% share of global CO₂ emissions attributed to cement production.

Graph 1: Global gross CO₂ emissions by large cement companies in 2020. Source: China Venture Carbon/ Caixin, corporate sustainability reports. Note: Includes all reported direct and indirect emissions for all company business lines.

Many of the Chinese cement companies already release sustainability data each year so this data isn’t exactly new. Yet seeing it all in one place like this is illuminating. Unsurprisingly, on the cement side the ranking is a list of producers ordered roughly by production capacity. The world’s biggest cement producer CNBM is also the cement company that emits the most CO₂. It released 255Mt of CO₂ in 2020. If it were a country, for example, it would be around the 20th largest emitter in the world with a similar output to France or Thailand. In China CNBM is then followed by Anhui Conch, BBMG, Tangshan Jidong Cement and China Resources Cement (CRC).

Graph 1 above also includes the total gross CO₂ emissions for other large cement producers outside of China in 2020 for comparison. These figures are estimates compiled from company sustainability reports and they attempt to cover all direct and indirect emissions across all business lines not just cement. Similar to the Chinese list, generally, the less CO₂ a cement company emits on this graph the less cement it produces. It is also worth noting that 2020 was an unusual year given the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. Generally this reduced global manufacturing output but there was wide regional variation.

The other interesting point to note from the China Venture Carbon-Caixin project is that they re-ranked their list by carbon emission intensity, measured as emissions as a proportion of revenue. This totally changes the ordering. Where before the 15 cement companies were fairly evenly spaced out amongst power generators, coal producers and petrochemical companies, now all of them are in the top 50. As the CCA notes in its commentary, “The emission intensity of electricity and cement is much higher than that of other industries. The top 30 companies in terms of carbon emission intensity are almost all power and cement companies.” Whilst most of these companies are probably safe for the time being, given their size, what this might mean for smaller Chinese cement companies with high emission intensity in light of the Chinese government’s energy efficiency drives might be seen as worrying.

Promoting gross CO₂ emissions by cement producers is generally avoided by cement producers because it makes them look bad! It prompts an argument with the environmental lobby and doesn’t recognise the essential nature of cementitious building products to society. However, to their credit producers are publishing the data. The preferred metric for the non-Chinese multinationals is specific emissions per tonne of cement as this better shows the hard-work made to reduce emissions. However, this risks a credibility gap from the outside world, if specific emissions go down but total emissions keep rising each year. In the meantime though the more data the better from China and everywhere else.

Holcim’s investors’ event last week confirmed the changes the company has been making to its sales mix. At its Capital Markets Day it revealed its commitment to expand the net sales of its Solutions & Products division to 30% of the group total by 2025. This division covers products such as roofing, mortar, precast concrete and asphalt. At the same time it is reducing the proportion of sales from its cement division. Graph 1, below, from a presentation given by chief executive officer Jans Jenisch, hints at what group may be aiming for: roughly a third of its sales from cement; a third from aggregates and ready mixed concrete; and a third from the Solutions & Products division in 2025.

Graph 1: Forecast growth of sales by Holcim’s Solutions & Products division to 2025. Source: Holcim Capital Markets Day 2021 presentations on website.

To give readers an idea of the scale of change in Holcim’s cement business since the merger with Lafarge in 2015, just look at the figures. In 2015 LafargeHolcim sold 256Mt of cement and it had a cement production capacity of 374Mt/yr. In 2020 it sold 190Mt of cement and it had a cement production capacity of 288Mt/yr. However, the ratio of sales from cement has remained consistent at just below 60%.

This all changed in January 2021 when Holcim announced it was buying roofing and building envelope producer Firestone Building Products for US$3.4bn. Instead of trimming down the business to make synergistic changes as it had been for the previous five years the group significantly changed its sales mix. As noted in ‘2021 in Cement’ in the December 2021 issue of Global Cement Magazine, Holcim remains the world’s largest non-Chinese cement producer. Yet its acquisitions in 2021 have consisted of ready-mixed concrete and aggregate companies in mature markets, and Firestone. Its divestments have been cement subsidiaries. Since 2019, and including the agreed Brazilian sale, planned to complete in 2022, the group has generated US$4.1bn in these divestments. Almost as if to reinforce this change of direction the group also switched its name to Holcim in May 2021.

Aside from the focus on expanding the scope of the Solutions & Products division over the next few years, the group said at its recent investors’ event that it wants to lead in sustainability and innovation. It also reminded investors that growth remains in building materials markets. Once Jenisch had established the potential the construction market has in the coming years it was all about so-called ‘green’ growth. On the sustainability side this includes promoting the group’s Science Based Targets initiative net-zero targets by 2050, pushing sales of its low-carbon concrete products and working on increasing the uptake of construction and demolition waste in Europe. The group has a target of reaching 25% or higher for sales of its ECOPact ready-mixed concrete product by 2025. Holcim reported Scope 1 CEM specific CO₂ net emissions of 555kgCO₂/t in 2020 and it has target of 475kgCO₂/t by 2030. This is broadly in line with its peers. Cemex has also committed to 475kgCO₂/t or lower and HeidelbergCement is currently aiming for 500kgCO₂/t or lower by 2030.

Simultaneously promoting sustainability and growth in products that release CO₂ during their manufacture is quite the balancing act for all cement producers. The way Holcim appears to be squaring this particular circle is by heading elsewhere. Back in January 2021 we asked whether Holcim would leave it with the Firestone acquisition or go further. This question has now been answered with Holcim’s intent to increase the share of its Solutions & Products to 30% by 2025. Other large cement producers don’t seem to be diversifying their sales mix at the same speed but similar strategic thinking along supply chains can be seen from the proposed buyer of LafargeHolcim Brazil, Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) Cimentos. CSN is a steel manufacturer and buying cement assets gives it somewhere to use its slag. Fittingly, Holcim’s investors’ day ended with a night out at a museum holding an exhibition on the history of concrete. For now at least concrete looks set to remain a key part of the business.